企业经营也是如此。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 尤法自田支配的。 旬 的 企 ， 盈 村 局 面上的,受到会计记账因素调节,也不一 定是自由支配的。 用工资举例子会更容易理解。 每月收入扣除房贷、生活费,剩下的钱才 能自由储蓄或投资。 同样的工资,有的人一人吃饱全家不愁, 那工资,扣除必要生活开支后,可自由支 配的金额就多。有的人需要养三个娃，那 扣除必要生活开支后，可自由支配的金额 就少很多。 自由现金流，是扣除维持企业正常运营和 保持竞争力的必要开支之后，所能获得的 可自由支配的现金流。 我们从媒体中经常听到，形容某个企业是 现令流、现金王,通常是指自由现金流。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

昨晚提到，本周一共四件大事，提振消费发布会、小米和腾讯的年报、美俄领导人昨晚通电话，以及明天凌晨的美联储议息会议。 第二，舍得花钱 。24年派发股息320亿、回购1120亿港币，合计1400+亿港币，也就是花了1300亿左右的人民币（而全年净利润2000亿左右）；2025年， 计划派息410亿，至少回购800亿，合计超1200亿。什么叫股东回报，什么叫真正的市值管理，这就是了。 说腾讯现在是中国的"股王" ，我觉得一点都不为过，说到底，是两个原因。 昨天 小米 的年报是港股盘后发的，昨晚美股的小米ADR涨接近4%，今天小米的港股涨接近1%，而恒生科技跌-1%，换句话说，市场已经算很认 可了——雷总的小米什么都好，就是太贵了，50多倍的PE，咬咬牙闭着眼才能吞下去。 然后昨晚 普/特 两人也通完电话了，据说普因为作一个企业家年度大会的讲话，还让特等了一个小时，这就非常牛逼，能让川宝等1个小时的， 地球上可能也找不出第二个人了。 当然，今天最重要的，还是 股王腾讯的年报 ，也是港股盘后发布的，整体继续超预期，四季度营收同比增11%，净利润同比增90%；全年的 话，营收同比增8%，净利润同比增68%。 我看了一眼， ...

FINANCIAL RESULTS FY25 4Q SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL PRESENTATION March 17, 2025 Forward Looking Statements In addition, these slides should be read in conjunction with our earnings press release dated March 17, 2025 along with listening to or reading a transcript of the management comments delivered in an earnings conference call held on March 17, 2025. All information in these slides are as of March 17, 2025. SAIC expressly disclaims any duty to update any forward-looking statement provided in this release to ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report its Q3 earnings on March 20, with analysts predicting adjusted EPS of $4.64, a 20.2% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $21.89 billion, a 0.71% growth [1] Financial Performance - Following the Q1 earnings report on September 20, FedEx's total return has been -3.89%, compared to the S&P 500's -1.12% [1] - In Q2, FedEx achieved $540 million in cost savings and aims for $2.2 billion in savings by FY2025 [1] - The trend of EPS revisions has been downward in recent years, indicating analyst skepticism about meeting EPS forecasts [1][2] Revenue Insights - International revenue accounted for $4.988 billion, or 22.75% of total revenue in Q2, highlighting the impact of tariffs on international shipping costs [4] - Consumer confidence is low, which may lead to reduced spending, negatively affecting FedEx's cyclical business [6] Market Expectations - The market is looking for updates on the proposed freight business spin-off, which analysts believe could create significant value [7][8] - Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan estimates over a 50% chance of a spin-off, potentially adding $100 to the stock price [9] Business Segmentation - The freight business has a higher operating profit margin of 19.3% compared to the overall business margin of 7.5% [10][11] - FedEx's freight segment is the largest LTL pure-play business, suggesting it could achieve a premium valuation as a standalone entity [11] Valuation Metrics - FedEx shares are currently trading at 12.6 times FY2025 earnings, 10.7 times FY2026 earnings, and 9.45 times FY2027 earnings, indicating a relatively low valuation [12] - The expected P/E ratio of 11.4 is slightly below the 10-year average, suggesting potential value [13] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express caution, preferring a larger margin of safety before considering positions, especially given the uncertainty surrounding EPS, revenue, and free cash flow revisions [14] - The potential risks outweigh the rewards entering the Q3 earnings report, with analysts not believing the stock has strong upside potential at this time [15]

Core Insights - The report indicates that consumer stocks are expected to become the second main investment theme in 2025, alongside AI+ technologies, due to several macroeconomic factors [2][3][8] - The significant decline in export growth in January and February 2025 has increased the importance of boosting domestic consumption to achieve the GDP growth target of 5% [17][29] - The government budget for 2025 shows a notable increase in broad fiscal spending, projected to grow by around 9%, which is expected to enhance consumption growth [9][29] - The upcoming annual and quarterly reports are anticipated to confirm an upward turning point in free cash flow, particularly in the consumer sector, which is expected to show significant improvement [10][32] - The valuation of consumer stocks is projected to revert to around 20 times earnings, making them more attractive compared to previous high valuations [10][52] - Foreign investment preferences are likely to shift from technology stocks to consumer sectors, indicating a potential increase in foreign capital inflow into Chinese consumer assets [10][12] Economic Context - The A-share market has shown a strong performance recently, driven by the consumer sector, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being highlighted during the National People's Congress [4][11] - The report notes that the consumer sector's performance is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target, especially given the recent slowdown in export growth [17][29] - The report emphasizes the correlation between government spending and retail sales growth, suggesting that increased government expenditure will positively impact consumer spending [29][30] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable performance or marginal improvements, particularly those with improving free cash flow, as these are expected to outperform in the coming months [3][11] - Key sectors to watch include consumer services, electronics, automotive, and healthcare, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery and policy support [13][51] - The report highlights the importance of free cash flow as a key metric for evaluating investment opportunities, particularly in the consumer sector, which currently shows the highest free cash flow yield [33][47]

- The report mentions that public funds have intensively applied for free cash flow-themed funds, with 23 such funds reported as of now[5][7][11] - The report highlights that the first QDII business approval of the year was granted to Caitong Asset Management, which took over a year and a half from application to approval[5][7][11] - Quantitative products' performance is summarized, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 1.30% last week, while quantitative hedging products recorded 0.04%[5][20][21]

- The report discusses the recent surge in applications for free cash flow-themed public funds, with 23 such funds being reported[5][7] - The report highlights the approval of the first QDII business of the year, with Caitong Asset Management receiving approval after more than a year and a half of application process[5][7] - The report provides an overview of the fund issuance dynamics, noting that 32 new funds were established domestically, raising a total of 17.807 billion yuan, with the largest being the Golden Eagle Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-day holding, managed by Chen Shuangshuang, at 5.001 billion yuan[5][13] - The report details the performance of various types of funds over the past week, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 0.73%, mixed funds 0.46%, bond funds 0.02%, active quantitative products 1.30%, and quantitative hedging products 0.04%[5][20] - The report provides year-to-date performance data, with ordinary stock funds averaging a return of 7.90%, mixed funds 6.39%, bond funds -0.02%, active quantitative products 6.28%, and quantitative hedging products 0.17%[5][23] - The report lists the top-performing funds in various categories, with the highest return in ordinary stock funds being 61.07% by Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A, and the highest in mixed funds being 76.27% by Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A[23][26] - The report discusses the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 973.113 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 at 251.468 billion yuan, and the STAR 50 at 171.994 billion yuan[5][27] - The report provides data on the net inflows and outflows of various ETFs, with the largest net inflow being 44.24 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, and the largest net outflow being -61.47 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF[5][27] - The report includes detailed data on the subscription and redemption of the top five broad-based ETFs, highlighting the significant head effect of broad-based ETFs[5][33][35]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fiscal year 2024, the company's net revenue increased by 13% to BRL 1.674 billion, driven by the successful conversion of annual contract value into revenue [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year grew by 13% to BRL 580 million, with a margin of 30.4% [7][14] - Free cash flow generation reached BRL 215 million, a 14% increase from 2023 [7][16] - The adjusted net profit totaled BRL 114 million in Q4 2024, an 18.9% increase compared to Q4 2023 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The B2G business unit generated BRL 105 million in revenue for the year, a 29% increase compared to 2023 [8][12] - Subscription revenue increased by 14% to BRL 1.462 billion, representing 87% of total revenue [12][14] - Non-subscription revenue dropped by 16% to BRL 107 million [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average payment terms of the accounts receivable portfolio was 186 days in Q4 2024, which is seven days higher than the comparable quarter [19] - The net debt position decreased to BRL 1.3 billion, a BRL 37 million decrease from the previous quarter [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency and cost savings, which have yielded positive results [7] - The technology platform, Purell, is set to feature an intelligent assistant named Blue starting in 2025, aimed at enhancing the educational experience [9] - The Startango Bilingual School franchise launched in 2023 has shown impressive progress, with 40 signed contracts and a strong pipeline of over 350 prospects [9][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strategy to positively impact public education, as evidenced by improved PIAIDI scores [8] - The company anticipates challenges in the credit scenario for the upcoming months but remains committed to generating free cash flow [18][21] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for similar growth levels in ACV and slight improvements in margins due to better sales mix [33][34] Other Important Information - The company achieved a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate improvement from 41.8% to 42.4% [17] - Provisions for doubtful accounts improved to 3.2% of net revenue, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comment on the decrease in PDA expenses as a percentage of net revenue - Management confirmed a reduction in PDA to 3.2% but expects a higher figure in the future due to anticipated challenges [26][27] Question: Insights on ACV growth and margin outlook for 2025 - ACV growth was 20% in Q4 and 14% for the fiscal year, with expectations for similar levels in 2025; margins are expected to improve slightly [30][33] Question: Clarification on G&A expenses and future expectations - G&A expenses remained flat as a percentage of sales, with a slight increase in commercial expenses due to revenue growth [41][42] Question: Expectations for B2G contracts and Start Anglo revenue - The B2G contract with Para is renewed at around BRL 80 million, with a strong pipeline expected; Start Anglo has around BRL 25 million in revenue with significant growth potential [45][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, highlighting the decline in major indices and the contrasting performance of dividend stocks, particularly in the coal, electricity, and banking sectors, while also addressing the implications of free cash flow strategies in investment. Market Performance - The three major indices collectively weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.99% [1] - Technology sectors such as robotics and AI saw significant declines, while dividend stocks in coal, electricity, and banking rose against the trend [1][13] Free Cash Flow Strategy - Several companies reported to the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index Fund, emphasizing that free cash flow is foundational for dividend distribution and focuses on a company's internal growth capabilities [1] - The first batch of free cash flow ETFs (159201) has seen its scale double since its launch, with the tracking index showing positive returns for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024 [1] Sector Analysis - The coal mining and processing sector rose by 3.37%, with notable stocks like Dayou Energy and Meijin Energy hitting the daily limit up [13][16] - The electricity sector increased by 1.00%, while the banking sector saw a modest rise of 0.41% [13] - The article notes that coal stocks are expected to experience upward trends in demand and prices post-2025, driven by policy implementations and seasonal construction activities [16] Investment Sentiment - The article reflects on the current market sentiment towards dividend stocks, suggesting that despite recent declines, they may still offer value due to their relatively high dividend yields compared to low bond rates [20] - The article mentions that the dividend index offers a yield of 4%-6%, making it an attractive option for risk-averse investors in the current market environment [20]

每日市场观察 2025 年 3 月 13 日 【今日关注】 主力资金流向：3 月 12 日，上证净流入 57.48 亿元，深证净流入 24.56 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为其他充电电源、电网 设备、汽车零部件，主力资金流出排名前三的板块为半导体、白酒、小 金属。 【消息面】 1.2 月中小企业发展指数大幅上升至 89.8 3 月 12 日 ，中小企业协会发布数据显示，2 月中小企业发展指数为 89.8， 较 1 月上升 0.8 点。其中，分项指数、分行业指数和分区域指数全面 上涨。 虽然隔夜欧美股指调整，但周三 A 股早盘依然表现出较强韧性，从板 块看，银行、保险等权重股稳定股指，算力及相关电源设备板块持续 活跃，广电、游戏等传媒板块快速拉升刺激做多人气，午后受恒生指 数走低影响，A 股股指有所回落，但个股依然涨多跌少。技术上看，3 0 和 60 分钟指标处于高位，3 月 5 日以来的日线级别上涨或将结束并 开启新一轮调整，投资者短线应注意风险。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：3 月 12 日，市场全天冲高回落，三大指数小幅下跌，沪指 盘中一度创出年内新高。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股上涨和下 ...