Core Viewpoint - The CEO of UBS Group emphasized that uncertainty is worse than any specific issue, such as tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern in the financial industry regarding the impact of uncertainty on market stability and investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The report by TMF Group highlights that countries like Greece, France, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, Brazil, and Italy rank among the top ten in terms of business complexity, with Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, and Italy experiencing an increase in complexity [1] - Mark Weil, CEO of TMF Group, emphasizes that geopolitical instability continues to impact trade and investment flows, particularly affecting regions like Vietnam, the Philippines, and India due to wage inflation and employee turnover [1][2] - The report suggests that while business complexity can affect foreign investors and local growth companies, large multinational corporations can manage this complexity, with the real challenge being uncertainty rather than complexity [1][2] Group 2 - TMF Group's North Asia head, Chen Qi, notes that the increasing global uncertainty has become a barrier for multinational operations, and understanding compliance requirements in various jurisdictions is crucial for foreign investment enterprises in China [2] - The report indicates that companies need to diversify their supply chains to mitigate concentration risks, as there are still significant markets to explore beyond the US and China, which together account for 45% of global GDP [3] - Chinese companies are increasingly adopting a light-asset model for localized operations overseas, initially relying on local professional resources before hiring local employees as operations mature [4] Group 3 - To address the additional complexity brought by diversification, companies are advised to simplify management structures to reduce internal complexity, which can enhance efficiency and flexibility in uncertain environments [5][6] - TMF Group's research shows that even with similar industry and regional distributions, the complexity of corporate structures can vary significantly, suggesting that companies should streamline their operations by reducing the number of entities and suppliers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that uncertainty is causing delays in investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which is impacting the willingness of businesses to invest [1] - Bailey emphasized that this uncertainty is not only affecting the UK but is also a global phenomenon [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring these trends to assess their implications for economic growth and monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies, which negatively impact GDP growth forecasts for major economies in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Environment - Uncertainty is a critical factor in global economic development and outlook, largely stemming from unpredictable economic policies of major countries [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets for 2025 following trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times - Investors should focus on high-quality companies that can thrive in a high-interest-rate environment, as not all companies will flourish under increased financing costs [5]. - High-quality companies typically exhibit characteristics such as long-term management vision, strong adaptability, and valuations based on free cash flow [6]. - Active fund managers may have a greater willingness and ability to analyze these companies compared to passive managers, who often rely on market indices for portfolio construction [6]. Group 3: Importance of Long-Term Investment - Investment should be viewed as sharing in the growth of the economy and companies, rather than merely reacting to market fluctuations [6][7]. - The article stresses that market prices will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of companies over time, reinforcing the idea that short-term market movements should not dictate investment decisions [7]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Allocation - Diversification is essential for risk management, as it helps mitigate the impact of market uncertainties [8][9]. - The concept of correlation is crucial in constructing a diversified portfolio, as combining assets with low correlation can reduce overall investment risk [9][10]. - Regular rebalancing and careful consideration of asset correlations are necessary to maintain an effective multi-asset allocation strategy [10]. Group 5: Maintaining Confidence Amid Uncertainty - Investors should acknowledge and confront their fears regarding uncertainty, as this is a normal psychological response [11]. - Long-term commitment to investment, rather than attempting to time the market, is more likely to yield success [11][13]. - Historical data shows that markets tend to recover from uncertainties, reinforcing the importance of maintaining investment discipline and a diversified portfolio [13][14].

2025.7.5更新：不确定性：https://t.co/U4g65DLlqWXQ (@0xXQ1):最近思考总结的2个结论：1. 币圈所有大行情的来源只有2个，一个是底层技术变革，一个是外部增量预期。2. 收益的来源也只有两个，一个是信息差，一个是承担不确定性。1的坑回头填上，本次 $AP 也不涉及，2里的信息差之前置顶帖给过原因，这里用近期几个例子讲一下对不确定性的理解。 https://t.co/2upUx1VQ0G ...

Market Dynamics & Uncertainty - The current market situation for TAP and AP is uncertain until Elon Musk definitively announces the establishment or abandonment of a political party [1] - Uncertainty can lead to potential gains, as liquidity flows towards the direction with the greatest certainty [2] - Information asymmetry reduces uncertainty, leading to positive expected returns in the long run [2] - Retail investors inevitably bear some uncertainty due to information gaps [2] Investment & Trading Strategies - Traders need a consistent trading system to manage uncertainty and adapt to position fluctuations [2] - Relying solely on uncertainty for profit involves unseen losses, as complete uncertainty resembles a coin toss with a zero-sum or negative-sum outcome [2] Hypothetical Scenario - If Musk announces the establishment of a political party and registers it as AP, a new group (D_new) would encompass all liquidity (P), potentially leading to a price increase of 100% from C+D, with an unpredictable increase from B [2]

2. 例：PNUT，AP&TAPPNUT 时期我从5m 全程围观，一路直到 pump 历史最高市值。我记得人声鼎沸使其许多人的光鲜亮丽，当然更多人也是捶胸顿足，复盘操作上的不足，但是回到那段特定的时期，我们不能忘记的是：1. PNUT炒作初期，特朗普是否上任存在极大不确定性。2. PNUT发酵过程中，马斯克的几句非常直接的奶点燃了最初的情绪，甚至说出“这只松鼠拯救了美国”类似的话。但在他说之前，没人意料得到他会如此来说。3. 成为直通bn 现货的首批2个 pump 代币之一。三环缺一不可，但三环的不确定性，也是PNUT 一直被人围观但少有人上车的原因。同样，TAP AP也有不确定性。参考我之前的推文：https://t.co/fcp9jfzHP5总结来说不确定性有：1. 马斯克到底是嘴炮还是真要建党，真建党会是什么时候？2. 选TAP 还是 AP？3. 马斯克和特朗普会不会明天继续和好？会不会后天继续吵架。这也是造成同样的盘子，曝光度传播度很高的情况下，前期在低市值横盘的原因。因为角度所有人都知道，真正建党的规模可以类比去年的 PAC，党派的持续性会强于 PAC，作为相对估值的标的会是不错的参考，底部肯定会有 ...

Market Drivers - Cryptocurrency market's major trends originate from two sources: fundamental technological changes and external incremental expectations [1] - Profit generation in the cryptocurrency space stems from information asymmetry and bearing uncertainty [1] Investment Strategies - Understanding and managing uncertainty is crucial for successful investment [1] - Information arbitrage is a source of profit, as previously discussed [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of curiosity in navigating uncertainty and fear, suggesting that curiosity can provide a sense of agency and connection in chaotic times [2][9]. Group 1: Curiosity and Fear - Curiosity has increased by 1%, as it allows individuals to confront fear and uncertainty more effectively [3]. - The relationship between fear and curiosity is explored, highlighting that curiosity can help individuals cope with fear by shifting focus from anxiety to learning and growth [4][9]. Group 2: Practical Strategies - The article provides actionable strategies to maintain resilience in the face of uncertainty, such as asking better questions to break the cycle of fear [7]. - It encourages individuals to articulate what is true in the present moment, countering the tendency of fear to project into the future [8]. - Maintaining curiosity about one's fears can reveal underlying values and desires, transforming fear from a threat into a signal for deeper understanding [8]. Group 3: Staying Grounded Amid Chaos - The strategies discussed do not eliminate chaos but offer a way to remain clear-headed and connected to oneself and others during uncertain times [9]. - Choosing curiosity over control and questions over answers can help individuals stay rooted in reality and remain sensitive to future developments [9].

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：我们正面临着残酷的不确定性。 ...