Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the expectation of continued moderate monetary policy, with a likelihood of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, potentially by 10 basis points, alongside structural support for the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with a significant probability of interest rate cuts in Q4 [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has recently increased from 1.65% to 1.75%, indicating a slight recovery in the economic fundamentals [1] Fiscal Policy - There is considerable room for issuing government bonds and ultra-long special government bonds in the second half of the year, with an acceleration in the issuance of local government special bonds focusing on local debt and land acquisition [1] Investment Opportunity - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) has shown strong historical performance, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since inception [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns for each of the seven complete natural years since its establishment, making it a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1] Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF allows T+0 trading, enabling same-day buying and selling, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market [2] - It features low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency [3] - The ETF provides transparency with daily published PCF lists [4] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing access to funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight market with active trading and significant capital inflow, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market due to supportive fiscal policies and macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of August 8, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF is priced at 123.4 yuan, with a turnover rate of 14.97% and a half-day trading volume of 3.401 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF was 8.41 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 22.72 billion yuan, with a net capital inflow of 395 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The institution suggests a potential price divergence between new and old bonds due to differing tax burdens, leading to a strategy favoring old bonds over new ones [2]. - The attractiveness of bond funds holding older bonds is expected to increase, while the relative value of interest rate bonds may decrease, prompting a shift of funds towards credit bonds and dividend stocks in the medium to long term [2]. Group 3: Economic Support Factors - The bond market is expected to receive support from favorable tax policies for older bonds and credit bonds, with no significant negative impact on ordinary investors [1]. - The central bank may maintain a loose liquidity policy to alleviate fiscal repayment pressures, potentially opening further space for monetary easing [1]. - Current macroeconomic data indicates that the momentum for economic recovery has not significantly improved, reinforcing the bond market's role as a safe-haven asset [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the bond market in the short - term, recommending long - duration sinking city investment bonds, capital bonds, city investment dim sum bonds, and US dollar bonds, and strongly promoting perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, while also suggesting attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [2] Group 2: Core Views - As of Q2 2025, the total assets of interest - rate bond funds reached 3.6 trillion yuan, a record high since Q1 2023. The bond allocation ratio continued to rise, with the proportion of bonds in the overall asset allocation reaching 97.28%. Active interest - rate bond funds slightly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds and significantly increased their allocation to long - duration bonds. The overall yield of interest - rate bond funds rebounded [2] - In Q2 2025, affected by factors such as the domestic economic adjustment period, relatively loose monetary policy, and institutional allocation demand, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level. The overall scale of interest - rate bond funds only increased slightly. In terms of heavy - position bond allocation, the scale and proportion of various types of bonds changed little, but the strategy leaned towards long - duration bonds [2] - In late July, the bond market adjusted. The report believes that going long in the bond market is currently the path of least resistance. In August, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year national and joint - stock second - tier bonds may fall below 1.9%. There are few negative factors in the current bond market, and the new tax regulations may push up the demand for old government bonds and financial bonds, lowering yields [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Interest - rate Bond Fund Scale and Asset Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the total assets of interest - rate bond funds were 3.6 trillion yuan, with active and passive interest - rate bond funds at 2.4 trillion and 1.2 trillion yuan respectively, increasing by 0.07 trillion and 0.13 trillion yuan compared to Q1 2025. In terms of asset allocation, bonds accounted for 97.28% (about 3.5 trillion yuan), and cash accounted for 0.91% (about 0.03 trillion yuan), with the proportions increasing by 0.30 and 0.17 percentage points respectively compared to the previous quarter [2] Active Interest - rate Bond Fund Heavy - position Bond Allocation - In Q2 2025, among the top five heavy - position bonds of active interest - rate bond funds, the scale proportions of policy - financial bonds, Treasury bonds, commercial - financial bonds, and local government bonds were 90.3%, 8.1%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. Compared with Q1, there was a slight increase in Treasury bond allocation and a decrease in policy - financial bond allocation, with the proportions changing by + 2.0 and - 2.7 percentage points respectively [2] Interest - rate Bond Fund Duration Changes - From Q1 to Q2 2025, the duration of interest - rate bond funds calculated based on heavy - position bonds rose rapidly from 3.32 years to 3.95 years. The average duration of heavy - position Treasury bonds of active interest - rate bond funds increased significantly to 9.34 years. Active interest - rate bond funds increased their allocation to bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, and the scale proportion of 30 - year Treasury bonds in heavy - position Treasury bonds increased from 11.4% to 27.1% [2] Yield of Bond Funds - The average annualized yield of interest - rate bond funds in Q2 2025 rebounded by 5.65 percentage points to 3.96% from - 1.69% in Q1 2025. The annualized yield of credit - bond funds in H1 2025 (1.92%) was higher than that of interest - rate bond funds (1.10%) [2] Investment Strategy Changes in Q2 2025 - Affected by multiple factors, the overall scale of interest - rate bond funds only increased slightly. In terms of heavy - position bond allocation, the strategy leaned towards long - duration bonds to seek higher returns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown significant performance and growth, indicating a favorable investment environment in the credit bond market as of August 2025 [3][4]. Performance Summary - As of August 6, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has increased by 0.36% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's net asset value has risen by 1.14% over the past six months, also leading among comparable funds [3]. - Since its inception, the fund has experienced a maximum drawdown of 1.04%, with a recovery time of 26 days, the fastest among comparable funds [3]. Liquidity and Trading Volume - The fund's trading volume reached 3.34 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 1.62% on August 6, 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 98.74 billion yuan [3]. Fund Size and Growth - The credit bond ETF fund has seen a significant increase in size, growing by 16.819 billion yuan over the past three months, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Fee Structure - The management fee for the credit bond ETF fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Tracking Accuracy - As of August 6, 2025, the fund's tracking error over the past month was 0.007%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict a stable funding environment in August, with potential for a strong performance in the bond market due to new tax regulations enhancing the attractiveness of credit bond yields [4]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in credit bonds that experienced significant adjustments in late July, particularly focusing on mid-to-low rated bonds with 2-3 year maturities and high-rated bonds with 3-5 year maturities [4]. Fund Composition - The credit bond ETF fund consists of 280 underlying bonds, all AAA-rated and primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises, covering a range of maturities from 0 to 30 years [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]

2 、交易费率低：ETF交易费率低，提高资金使用效率。 3 、持仓透明：ETF每日公布PCF清单，持仓透明。 4 、可进行质押回购：当市场其他资产有投资机会、恰巧手头资金不够充裕时，投资者就可以通过ETF 质押换取资金，来参与其他类资产的投资，到期时再赎回ETF即可。 十年国债ETF（511260）盘中飘红，债市做多情绪高涨。 消息面上，财政部、国家税务总局于2025年8月1日发布公告，宣布自8月8日起对新发行的国债、地方政 府债券、金融债券利息收入恢复征收增值税，采用"新老划断"原则，存量债券继续免税。此外，国家税 务总局明确自然人投资者购买国债等债券月利息收入不超过10万元可享受增值税免征政策，执行期限至 2027年底。 华宝证券指出，债市压力缓释，拐点已现。"反内卷"政策表述边际软化，削弱了市场对通胀上升的预 期。商品期货（如焦煤、多晶硅）近期深度回调缓解了债市恐慌情绪，后续配置盘入场意愿增强。尽管 政府债供给放量，但央行通过逆回购等工具维稳资金面，政策态度明确防止流动性收紧引发债市负反 馈。在结构性压力以及外部关税等不确定性扰动下，利率债有望延续修复。7月底会议虽强调"依法依规 治理企业无序竞争"，但 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has adjusted its price to 123.26 yuan as of August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 50.09 billion yuan in half a day, indicating active market trading [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 23.284 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with the latest share count at 18.9 million, also a record high [1] - The 30-year Treasury ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.445 billion yuan, totaling 5.302 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic according to PuYin Wealth Management, which believes that the fundamental support for the bond market has not changed [1] - The bond market sentiment has improved, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning to around 1.7%, and the pressure from institutional redemptions has not persisted for long [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investments in this category [2]

Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a slight increase of 0.06%, with the latest price at 116.19 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 3.19% over the past year as of July 29, 2025 [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 309 billion yuan, with a bid amount and winning amount both at 309 billion yuan, maintaining an operation rate of 1.40% [1] - Huaxi Securities noted that the month-end liquidity easing is a favorable factor for the bond market, although the recent adjustments in the bond market are primarily driven by deteriorating sentiment rather than liquidity considerations [1] Group 2 - Recent significant adjustments in the bond market may present opportunities for contrarian trading, with concerns about rising industrial product prices potentially leading to an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - The PPI is expected to return to around 0 by the end of this year, which may be challenging, referencing the supply-side reforms of 2015-16 where the average PPI for 2016 was 0.45% [2] - Since 2012, the transmission of PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) has weakened, and an independent rise in PPI could justify monetary easing measures such as rate cuts [2] - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) primarily invests in medium to long-term local government bonds, suitable for duration management and tactical allocation, offering relatively high yield potential with low credit risk [2]

每经编辑：叶峰 最近股市情绪很亢奋。沪指在众多利好催化下成功站上3600点，不仅创年内新高，也是自2022年1月以 来首次收于3600点上方。 东边日出西边雨，与权益市场的亮眼表现不同，债券市场最近则频频调整，主要原因是短期风险偏好的 转向，债市表现受到压制。 那么该如何看待近期债市波动以及后续债券市场表现？ 短期而言，债市或将因雅江工程等重要市场主线引发的情绪面变化而产生一定波动，但当前市场对经济 生产强、需求弱这一基本面的核心判断尚未发生根本改变。预计7月重磅会议是关键节点，将决定行情 能否得到"空中加油"。 中期来看，在经济基本面和流动性没有改变情况下，商品和股市的表现虽然阶段性有扰动，但尚不足以 动摇债市的基础。长期来看，则需要重点关注通胀预期的变化。 对于普通投资者而言，随着债市波动的加大以及票息收益的下降，债市投资的难度明显提高。想要在债 市的风浪中抓住机会，找到高性价比的债市资产至关重要，可以关注"债市压舱石"十年国债相关品种， 比如十年国债ETF（511260）。 此外，十年国债ETF还有四点独特的配置优势： 1 、T+0交易便捷 十年国债ETF实行"T+0"交易，即当日买入、当日可卖出。在当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a long - position channel in the second half of 2025. The exchange - rate constraint has weakened significantly. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, liquidity is expected to remain loose. The decline in institutional liability costs is expected to bring incremental funds to the bond market. The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification, and inflation improvement may occur in the fourth quarter [1]. - The allocation value of 10 - year treasury bonds is prominent. They are suitable for asset allocation, with better market depth and breadth. Compared with medium - short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have advantages in duration and risk - return ratio [1]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index can connect treasury bond futures and spot markets. It has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk [1]. - The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond ETF has investment value, including low fees, good tracking effect, scarcity, diverse trading mechanisms, and excellent investment performance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - The yield curve of treasury bonds first experienced a "bear - flat" and then a "bull - flat" trend. In Q1 2025, long - term bonds corrected due to tightened funds and bank liability pressure. In April 2025, the bond market quickly turned bullish. From May to June 2025, after the yield declined to a low level, the focus was on exploring spreads [7]. - The bond market in 2025 has three new features: the central bank's policy rate is the bottom of the money market; short - term bonds perform weakly, and long - term bonds are difficult to trade; the overall fundamentals are stable, but tariff pulses have a large impact [13]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market Remains in a Long - Position Channel in the Second Half of 2025 - Liquidity is expected to remain loose in July. The decline in institutional liability costs will bring incremental funds to the bond market, including the reset of bank time deposits and the potential reduction of insurance product preset interest rates [17][21]. - The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification. Inflation may bottom out in the third quarter, and improvement may occur in the fourth quarter. The bond market is still in a long - position window, but the odds are limited, and the current trading logic may continue to focus on exploring spreads [1][29]. 3.1.3 The Allocation Value of 10 - Year Treasury Bonds is Prominent - 10 - year treasury bonds are suitable for asset allocation as their pricing is based on fundamentals, and their pricing logic is different from that of stocks and commodities [37]. - The 10 - year treasury bond market has better depth and breadth, with large scale, wide participation, high trading activity, and a good futures - spot linkage effect. Its market position may be further consolidated in the future [45]. - Compared with medium - short - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have duration offensive advantages and a coupon safety cushion. Compared with ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have a better risk - return ratio [49][57]. 3.2 Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index: A Bridge Connecting Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Index Compilation Scheme - The index was launched on March 7, 2013. Its sample bonds are treasury bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a remaining maturity between 6.5 and 10.25 years. It uses market - value weighting to reflect the overall performance of treasury bonds in the corresponding maturity range in the Shanghai market [64]. - The specific compilation scheme includes sample bond selection, index calculation, and sample adjustment (regular and temporary adjustments) [67]. 3.2.2 Basic Index Features - The index has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk. Since the base period, its cumulative return has reached 85.76%, with an annualized return of 4.82%, a maximum drawdown of - 6.86%, and an annualized volatility of 2.87% [71]. - All sample bonds are deliverable bonds for T contracts. The index has high concentration, and its duration is generally between 7 and 7.4 years, currently at 7.61 years [74][78]. 3.3 Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF 3.3.1 Basic Information - The fund was established on August 4, 2017, by Guotai Fund, with Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang as fund managers. As of July 18, 2025, its scale is 15.547 billion yuan. The management fee and custody fee are 0.15% and 0.05% respectively [80]. - It is one of the bond funds with the lowest fees, and as an on - exchange product, it does not charge subscription or redemption fees [83]. 3.3.2 Investment Method - The fund mainly invests in the constituent treasury bonds and alternative constituent treasury bonds of the target index (with a proportion of not less than 90% of the fund's net asset value). It uses an optimized sampling replication method to track the target index, aiming for an annualized tracking error of no more than 2%. Since its establishment, the annualized tracking error has been 1.43% [84][87]. 3.3.3 The Only Product Tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index in the Market - Currently, most domestic interest - rate bond index funds cover policy - financial bond indices, and long - duration interest - rate bond indices and treasury bond indices are relatively scarce. The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF is the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index, with scarcity [91]. 3.3.4 Trading Mechanism - The fund can be traded on the secondary market, and its IOPV is publicly announced, supporting T + 0 trading. It has sufficient liquidity, and the deviation between IOPV and trading price is low [97]. - The fund also supports physical redemption and has a pledge - repurchase business, with a current conversion ratio of about 94.48%, which meets the refinancing needs of investors [102]. 3.3.5 Investment Performance - Since its establishment, the fund has an annualized return of 4.01%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.56%, an annualized volatility of 2.45%, a Calmar ratio of 0.88, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03. It has achieved positive returns for six consecutive years, and its maximum annual drawdown is generally no more than 3% [103]. - In the past three years, its return has led 92.30% of interest - rate bond index funds [107]. 3.4 Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Guotai Fund was established in March 1998, one of the first batch of standardized fund management companies in China. It has a complete product line and various business qualifications, with a total asset management scale of 114.34 billion yuan [111]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Wang Yu has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in January 2016, and currently manages 10 products with a total scale of 23.148 billion yuan [112]. - Wang Zhenyang has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in December 2024, and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 23.302 billion yuan [115].