点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】把握年末利率下行契机，解析10年国债ETF配置价值——工具型产品介绍与分析系列之二十七 我们认为宏观基本面承压但韧性仍在、央行政策支撑下，年末利率有望维持偏低并趋于稳定。低利率环境提升 固定收益资产吸引力，为债券ETF配置提供了较高性价比。国泰上证10年期国债ETF（代码：511260.SH）作 为市场上唯一跟踪10年期国债指数的债券ETF，基金规模大、流动性佳，风险收益比良好，公募基金将作为底 仓资产的配置趋势进一步强化，建议关注其配置机会。 本周全市场股票池中，盈利因子获取正收益0.61%；市值因子、非线性市值因子、动量因子分别获取正收益 0.25%、0.24%、0.23%，市场表现为大市值风格；残差波动率因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic landscape in China, highlighting the "strong supply and weak demand" situation, and suggests that there are opportunities for interest rate declines towards the end of the year [4]. Economic Outlook - The economic structure in October 2025 shows "improving consumption, weak production, and declining investment," with fixed asset investment and real estate development being major drags [4]. - Industrial value-added growth has slowed, and corporate profit margins have slightly decreased, indicating short-term economic downward pressure [4]. - The effectiveness of previous policies to expand domestic demand is diminishing, and the impact of new fiscal policies has yet to be seen, making it challenging to achieve annual economic targets [4]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases is expected to help rectify the "loose funding - tight liabilities" structural distortion and facilitate the effective transmission of monetary easing to the bond market [4]. - Initial bond buying volumes are small but signal a moderate easing of monetary policy; continued operations could enhance banks' capacity to allocate medium- and long-term government bonds [4]. Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term liquidity shocks have limited impact on the bond market, with recent adjustments attributed to these shocks rather than a change in the long-term interest rate downtrend [4]. - As the effects of liquidity shocks dissipate, there remains downward momentum for year-end interest rates, and medium- to long-term government bonds still hold allocation value [4]. Bond ETF Investment Value - The demand for bond ETFs is steadily increasing as investors mature, shifting from a focus on equities to a broader asset allocation strategy that includes risk diversification [5]. - Bond ETFs are recognized for their low cost, high transparency, and liquidity, making them essential tools for institutional investors' long-term allocations [5]. Long-term Bond ETF Appeal - In a low-interest-rate environment, bond ETFs offer high investment cost-effectiveness, particularly as medium- to long-term government bond yields are on a downward trend [6]. - The 10-year government bond ETF is highlighted for its ample supply, good liquidity, and low operational costs, reinforcing its value as a core asset in public funds [7]. - The Guotai CSI 10-Year Government Bond ETF (code: 511260.SH) is noted for its robust performance and good risk-return ratio, suggesting it as a focus for allocation opportunities [7].

2025 年 12 月 7 日 总量研究 把握年末利率下行契机，解析十年国债 ETF 配置价值 ——工具型产品介绍与分析系列之二十七 要点 年末利率存在下行机会： "供强需弱"格局大概率延续，经济回升向好的基础有待巩固。2025 年 10 月 我国经济呈现"消费改善、生产偏弱、投资下行"的结构性特征，固定资产投 资和房地产开发投资仍是主要拖累。工业增加值同比增速回落、企业利润率略 有下降，显示短期经济面临下行压力。展望四季度，受前期扩内需政策效应减 弱和增量财政政策的支撑尚未显现影响，"供强需弱"格局可能延续，实现全 年目标仍具挑战。 央行重启买债，有助于修复"宽资金—紧负债"的结构扭曲，加快资金面宽松 向债券市场的有效传导。央行重启国债买入，虽初期量不大，但表明货币政策 释放"适度宽松"信号。若后续买债操作持续推进，将进一步释放银行在中长 期国债上的配置能力，加快资金面宽松向债市传导，支撑中长期国债收益率下 行与市场稳定。 短期流动性冲击对债市的扰动有限。进入 11 月后，债市出现调整，我们认为 主要源于短期流动性冲击，而非中长期利率下行趋势的改变。随着冲击影响的 消化，年末利率仍存在下行动力，中长期国债仍 ...

Market Overview - The market rebounded after hitting a low, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1] - The robotics sector experienced a significant surge, while the commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance [1] - The consumer sector showed volatility, particularly in Hainan, which saw a collective decline [1] ETF Market Activity - On December 4, the non-monetary ETF market saw notable inflows, with E Fund's CSI Overseas Internet ETF increasing by 349 million shares, resulting in a net inflow of 533 million yuan [1] - Other ETFs with significant inflows included Guotai's 10-Year Government Bond ETF, which saw a 4.97 million yuan net inflow, and Guotai's CSI A500 ETF, which had a net inflow of 456 million yuan [1][2] Fund Performance - The top-performing ETFs by net inflow for December 4 included: - E Fund's CSI Overseas Internet ETF with a 0.46% increase and a net inflow of 533 million yuan [2] - Guotai's CSI A500 ETF with a 0.35% increase and a net inflow of 456 million yuan [2] - Conversely, the worst performers included Bosera's 30-Year Government Bond ETF, which saw a 1.34% decrease and a net outflow of 370 million yuan [2] Monthly ETF Inflows - As of December 4, the top 20 ETFs by net inflow for the month included: - Harvest's CSI AAA Technology Innovation Bond ETF with a net inflow of 2.576 billion yuan [4] - Huaxia's CSI A500 ETF with a net inflow of 1.087 billion yuan [4] - E Fund's CSI Overseas Internet ETF with a net inflow of 822 million yuan [4] Overall ETF Market Statistics - As of December 4, the total ETF shares in the market reached 32,527.70 million, with a total scale of 57,034.88 million yuan [4] - The materials sector saw the largest increase in shares, with two funds tracking it, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index had the highest number of funds tracking it [4]

Group 1 - The report aims to track large purchases and net active purchases through transaction detail data, building relevant indicators [1] - The top five industries for large purchases in the last five trading days are: Banking, Real Estate, Steel, Comprehensive, and Textile & Apparel [2] - The top five industries for net active purchases in the last five trading days are: Banking, Transportation, Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, and Oil & Petrochemicals [2] Group 2 - The top five ETFs for large purchases in the last five trading days are: Guotai CSI A500 ETF, Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury ETF, Harvest S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Selected Industry ETF, Southern Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF, and Hai Futong SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF [2] - The top five ETFs for net active purchases in the last five trading days are: Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury ETF, E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF, Yinhua SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF, Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF, and Penghua CSI Liquor ETF [2]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 28, the total margin balance for ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 121.01 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 3.384 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: ETF Financing and Margin Balances - The ETF financing balance stood at 112.807 billion yuan, up by 3.33 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short balance was recorded at 8.203 billion yuan, which is an increase of 0.054 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Net Inflows in ETFs - On October 28, 312 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top net inflow being 1.268 billion yuan for the Fortune China Government Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF [1] - Other ETFs with significant net inflows included the Hai Fu Tong China Securities Short-term Bond ETF, Bosera China Government Bond 0-3 Year Development Bank ETF, Guotai China Securities 5-Year Government Bond ETF, Guotai China Securities 10-Year Government Bond ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, and E Fund ChiNext ETF [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 20, the total margin balance for ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 115.678 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 0.244 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: ETF Financing and Margin Data - The ETF financing balance stands at 107.929 billion yuan, down by 0.332 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short balance is 7.749 billion yuan, which has increased by 0.088 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Net Buy Data - On October 20, 269 ETFs experienced net financing purchases, with the top net purchase being the Fortune China Government Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF, which saw a net buy of 0.251 billion yuan [1] - Other ETFs with significant net financing purchases include the Pengyang China Government Bond 30-Year ETF, the E Fund Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, the Guotai Shanghai 10-Year Government Bond ETF, the Harvest Shanghai STAR Market Chip ETF, the E Fund ChiNext ETF, and the Fortune CSI 1000 ETF [1]

- The report analyzes the investment value of the Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF, highlighting its advantages in terms of low fee rates, high transparency, and efficient tracking of the SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond Index[4][8][50] - The SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond Index (code: H11077.SH) is a bond index launched by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 7, 2013. It is composed of treasury bonds with remaining maturities between 6.5 and 10.25 years, calculated using a market capitalization-weighted method to reflect the overall price trend of treasury bonds in this maturity range[45][46][47] - The Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF tracks the SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond Index, investing at least 90% of its net assets in the index's constituent bonds and alternative constituent bonds. The ETF aims to replicate the index's performance with minimal tracking error, providing investors with a convenient way to access a basket of high-credit-quality, liquid medium- to long-term treasury bonds[50][51][54] - The ETF demonstrates strong performance metrics: annualized return of 3.81%, annualized volatility of 2.65%, IR of 1.44, monthly win rate of 71.13%, and maximum drawdown of 3.79%. Relative to its benchmark, it achieves an annualized excess return of 2.20%, excess volatility of 0.59%, excess IR of 3.72, excess monthly win rate of 93.81%, and excess maximum drawdown of 0.73%[59][63][62] - The ETF's historical excess performance is consistently positive, with monthly excess win rates of 100% since 2021 and zero monthly excess drawdowns during the same period. For example, in 2021, the excess IR reached 13.42, and in 2023, it further improved to 21.22[63][62][59]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 16, the total margin balance of ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 115.76 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 3.448 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: ETF Financing and Margin Data - The ETF financing balance was 107.794 billion yuan, up by 3.321 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short balance stood at 7.966 billion yuan, increasing by 0.127 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Top Performing ETFs - On September 16, 265 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top performer being the Fortune China Government Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF, which saw a net inflow of 1.303 billion yuan [1] - Other notable ETFs with significant net financing inflows included the Bosera China Government Bond 0-3 Year Development Bank ETF, Hai Fu Tong CSI Short-term Bond ETF, Guotai CSI 5-Year Government Bond ETF, Pengyang China Government Bond 30-Year ETF, Guotai CSI 10-Year Government Bond ETF, and Huaan Gold ETF [1]

Core Viewpoint - As of August 19, the total margin balance for ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 106.27 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.914 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: ETF Financing and Margin Balances - The ETF financing balance stood at 99.855 billion yuan, up by 2.877 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short-selling balance was recorded at 6.415 billion yuan, which is an increase of 0.037 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Net Inflows in ETFs - On August 19, a total of 239 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top net inflow being 1.444 billion yuan for the Fortune China Government Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF [1] - Other ETFs with significant net inflows included the Hai Fu Tong CSI Short-term Bond ETF, Bosera 0-3 Year National Development Bank ETF, Pengyang 30-Year National Bond ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, and Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year National Bond ETF, each with net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1]