玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [6][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans were closed for a holiday. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were mostly flat, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, and last week's was 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.25 days to 7.98 days. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year. Soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared with the previous month, while production increased. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, lower than the same period last year and August this year. On Thursday, domestic oils continued to rebound, and foreign capital reduced short positions in palm oil [6]. - **Strategy**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Spot prices were stable. The new sugar - making season is expected to see a global supply surplus of 3.7 million tons, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price index rose. Spinning mill operating rates decreased slightly, and commercial cotton inventories increased year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 520,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.03 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream digestion was average, with some improvement in local areas [16]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly fell, with slight increases in some areas. Market demand increased slowly, and supply was abundant. Slaughter enterprises still had the intention to suppress prices [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand, corn prices will remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will strongly support prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices and are pressured by high inventory. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Sugar: The global and domestic sugar supply is in a loose pattern. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. - Apples: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. - Pigs: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, prices in different regions changed slightly. For example, the price in潍坊 increased by 10, while the price in other regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and trade profits also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply is low, and downstream enterprises need to restock, driving up prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7618 [6]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the cost of domestic sugar is the key support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the cost of domestic sugar may be broken through. The supply is loose, and the short - selling strategy is maintained, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and other data also changed [9]. - **Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, and long - term long positions are suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in some production areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases due to the longer storage time. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis of different months had corresponding changes [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 95 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory upward trend, with the near - month leading the rise and the far - month following. The 2601 contract has broken through and reached a new high, and the short - term remains strong. Attention should be paid to whether the 7 and 9 - month contracts can break through the pressure range in mid - October [1]. - Soybeans are expected to oscillate. The CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high, waiting for more details of China's procurement and Sino - US dialogue [1]. - For oilseeds, they are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days, reaching the lowest price since July. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has slightly increased [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The futures price rebounds after reaching the previous low, and short - term long positions should be held with caution. Attention should be paid to the impact of the old chickens' slaughter on the market [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The short - term market is in a state of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The industry expects that the inventory of breeding sows in October will fall below 40 million tons, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the 5, 7, and 9 - month contracts to stabilize and rebound [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: From the supply side, farmers' grain - selling rhythm is slow, and the market trading is not active. Central reserve corn procurement prices and spot prices are rising. From the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises' inventory is rising steadily. The 2601 contract has broken through, and the short - term trend is strong [1]. - **Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high. China purchased 158.4 tons last week and 12.3 tons on Monday. The US soybean inspection volume is in line with market expectations. The market is waiting for more details of Sino - US dialogue and the US government's plan for farmers [1]. - **Oilseeds**: BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and weak demand. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has increased slightly to 222.4 million tons due to the increase in palm oil inventory [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated upwards. Spot prices have increased slightly, and short - term prices in the production areas are mostly stable with a few rising. Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and short - term long positions should be held with caution [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated, and the far - month 7 and 9 - month contracts have gapped up. Spot prices are generally stable, and the industry expects a supply and price inflection point in the second half of 2026 [2]. Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has reached 81%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn has reached 93% of the planned area in the central and southern regions [3]. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key areas of China has increased by 0.1 million tons to 222.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3]. - On November 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" have both increased. The average prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market have increased, while the price of white - striped chicken has decreased [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China has risen above 2.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain at around 2.3 million tons this week. The estimated total soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, oilseeds, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][11][14][17][19][24]. Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and has rich experience in leading research teams [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with certain research achievements and media exposure [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle after the release of farmers' selling pressure in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as the new cotton acquisition is almost completed, the estimated total output is lowered, and the external environment is favorable for textile exports [10]. - Egg prices are pushed up slightly by supply and demand factors, and the acceleration of the culling rhythm will drive prices up [13]. - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year and good - quality goods are scarce [16]. - For pigs, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the far - month market sentiment improvement and various influencing factors [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while the price in Weifang increased by 20 yuan, and the price in Shekou increased by 10 yuan. The basis of corn changed by - 27, and the trade profit increased by 10. For starch, the price in Weifang increased by 50 yuan, and the basis changed by - 39 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the corn market is short of supply, and prices are strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption is the key in the long - term [4]. Sugar - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Kunming increased by 5 yuan, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11. The basis in Liuzhou was 322, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil was 410 and 591 respectively on November 21 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, domestic sugar prices are supported by domestic production costs. In the long - term, if the global sugar surplus intensifies, domestic production costs may be broken through. Maintain a high - short strategy [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 yuan, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 1185. The price of Vietnamese yarn remained unchanged, and the import profit increased by 4, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 1 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is almost done, and the estimated output is lowered. The external environment is favorable for textile exports, so it is suitable for long - term long positions [10]. Eggs - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the prices in various production areas remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.03 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Pay attention to the culling rhythm [13]. Apples - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 20, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 56, Shandong inventory increased by 101, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 67 [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. Good - quality goods are scarce, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [16]. Pigs - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.05, and the price in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05. The basis increased by 40 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Before the Spring Festival, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to far - month market sentiment and various influencing factors [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans have high inventory, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent improvement in exports provides support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][8]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans first fell and then rose, supported by Chinese purchases. Brazilian soybean premiums decreased slightly last week, and the cost of imported soybeans declined. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, and trading and pick - up were good last week. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days last week [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased, and the bottom of import cost may have appeared. Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [4]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous month, and production showed a mixed trend. Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be weak. Last Friday, domestic palm oil prices fell, and the spot basis was stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Over - expected production suppresses the market, but improved exports provide support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [8]. **Sugar** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and declined. The international sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports increased in 2025. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [12]. **Cotton** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. China's cotton imports decreased in 2025, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [16]. **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend, with some local increases. Supply pressure remains, but inventory pressure has eased after the temperature drop, and downstream replenishment willingness has increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. **Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated over the weekend. Supply is normal, and terminal demand is limited, so pig prices are expected to be stable today with some local adjustments [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices have started a short - term upward trend due to tightened supply in production areas and downstream replenishment demand, with farmers' selling intention being a key factor. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is tight, and prices are expected to rise after the release of farmers' selling pressure [2] - Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices in the short - term. High inventory suppresses prices, and downstream consumption rhythm is crucial for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import policies, with domestic sugar cost as support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through. A high - short strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited [4] - Cotton production is estimated to have decreased. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [6] - Egg prices have a slightly upward - moving price center due to supply and demand factors. The acceleration of the elimination process will drive prices up [10] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory has decreased compared to last year [14] - Pig prices are in a weak and volatile situation in the short - term, with mid - term supply pressure remaining. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, prices in different regions showed some changes. For example, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in other regions like Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed from - 25 to 2, and the trade profit and import profit also changed [2] - **Starch Price Data**: During the same period, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2700 and 2800 respectively, with the basis changing from 150 to 232 and the processing profit changing from 9 to - 1 [2] Sugar - **Sugar Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 45, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 446 [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Cotton Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the 3128 cotton price increased by 20, and the import profit and other data also changed [6] - **Cotton Yarn Price Data**: The Vietnam yarn spot price remained stable, while the import profit decreased by 18, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 21 [6] Eggs - **Egg Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in main production areas remained relatively stable, and the basis decreased by 61. The prices of substitute products such as broilers and pigs changed little [10] Apples - **Apple Price Data**: The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 from 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20. The national cold - storage inventory decreased, with Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu all having lower inventory levels than last year [14] Pigs - **Pig Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in different production areas fluctuated slightly, and the basis increased by 70 [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season provides some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to factors such as weak exports and high inventory. However, if Indonesian production decreases, the situation may reverse, and the strategy is to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the 2025/26 season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are negative factors such as weak downstream demand and high domestic production, some negative news has been digested [16][17]. - Egg prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with near - term contracts focusing on premium/discount and far - term contracts reflecting de - capacity expectations. In the medium term, as demand weakens, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [18][19]. - Hog prices are expected to be bearish before the Spring Festival due to oversupply. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to concerns about US soybean demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, while the US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [2]. - **Strategy View**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. As the de - stocking season begins, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased compared to the same period last month, and the production situation was mixed. The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to be volatile and weak in the near term. On Thursday, domestic oil prices declined. Domestic spot basis prices were stable [6]. - **Strategy View**: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed prices, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of high inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season. In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. The production of Indian sugar mills has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the new season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year. The USDA monthly report showed an increase in global cotton production in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was low, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: Due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production, there is selling - hedging pressure. However, some negative news has been digested, and cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, national egg prices were stable or declined. The market supply was generally sufficient, and the terminal market digestion speed was partly stable and partly slowed down. It is expected that today's egg prices will be weakly stable with a few declines [18]. - **Strategy View**: The egg futures market has rebounded in advance, but the spot price increase has not met expectations, resulting in an enlarged premium. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium term, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [19]. Hogs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, domestic hog prices mainly increased, with some areas stable or slightly decreased. The market supply was normal, but demand was limited, and slaughter enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. It is expected that today's hog prices may be stable or decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The current hog price rebound is driven by frozen product storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will lead to a bearish pattern before the Spring Festival. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [22].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal inventory has increased, while the EU's soybean meal imports have decreased compared to the previous year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high despite a slight downward adjustment in forecasts. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of the end of week 46 in 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory stands at 999,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, reflecting a 3.05% week-on-week rise [1] - The European Commission reported that soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 season reached 6.74 million tons, down from 7.37 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) forecasts a soybean production of 177.7 million tons in 2026, despite a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the October forecast, marking a historical record [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Zhengxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean prices have fluctuated, with domestic soybean procurement for the near term nearly complete and long-term procurement gradually advancing. The short-term supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, leading to ample domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories [2] - Guodu Futures highlighted that the USDA's November supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 bushels per acre in September, aligning with market expectations. Domestic soybean imports have consistently exceeded historical levels since May, resulting in a high inventory [3] - The report also indicated that weather conditions in the new season's South American soybean regions are stable, putting pressure on both domestic and international prices, although cost support remains, suggesting a continuation of wide-ranging fluctuations in the market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [3][5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, and production showed a mixed trend. Palm oil is expected to trade sideways, and a shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [7][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [11][12]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [14][15]. - Egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [17][18]. - Pig prices were half stable and half falling. The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans rose sharply, and Brazilian soybean premiums increased by 4 - 5 cents per bushel. Domestic soybean meal spot prices decreased slightly by 20 yuan/ton, and trading and pick - up were good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 234.92 tons, up from 207.76 tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to resume in the under - rained areas of the Brazilian soybean - growing region, and the planting progress has reached 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the previous month, and the first 15 days saw a 10% decrease. Production showed a mixed trend. On Monday, domestic palm oil prices traded sideways, with stable spot basis [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is expected to trade sideways. A shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices also decreased. In October, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased compared to the September forecast. As of November 13, the cumulative cotton inspection in China increased year - on - year. The spinning mill operating rate increased slightly week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [14]. - **Strategy**: Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. Supply was sufficient, and market trading was inactive [17]. - **Strategy**: The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. After continuous price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [21].