研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/11 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/04 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -35 | -10 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 211 | 32 | | 2025/11/05 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -34 | -10 103 | 2700 | 2800 | 204 | 28 | | 2025/11/06 | 2050 | 2100 | 2140 | 2250 | -54 | 0 98 | 2700 | 2800 | 186 | 28 | | 2025/11/07 | 2050 | 2110 | 2120 | 2250 | -39 | -10 115 | 2700 | 2800 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to weaken in the short - term due to concentrated grain listings but may rebound in the medium - to long - term as farmers may resist selling at low prices [2] - Starch prices are currently under pressure due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for future price trends [2] - Sugar prices are affected by international supply pressure and domestic cost support, and may face challenges if global surplus intensifies [5] - Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] - Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to supply and demand factors, and the future price trend depends on the speed of chicken culling [13] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term as the new - season output decreases and the opening price is higher than last year [15] - Pig prices are currently weak, and the key drivers of the market are the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, corn prices in different regions showed various changes, with a maximum decrease of 40 in some areas, and starch processing profit remained at 32 in the end [1] - **Analysis**: Short - term pressure on corn prices due to concentrated listings; mid - to long - term depends on the game between farmers and traders. Starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices [2] Sugar - **Price Data**: The provided table shows sugar spot prices in different regions, as well as data on basis, import profit, and warehouse receipts from October 29 to November 4, 2025, with some price changes [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects sugar prices, and domestic prices are supported by production costs but may face challenges from imports [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, cotton prices showed a downward trend, and cotton yarn profit improved gradually [6] - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, egg prices in different regions remained relatively stable, with a 33 decrease in basis [13] - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand has increased slightly, leading to a slight price rebound. Future prices depend on the speed of chicken culling [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000, and the basis showed a decreasing trend [14][15] - **Analysis**: New - season output has decreased, and affected by rainfall, the quality in some areas is poor. The opening price is higher than last year, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate upward [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, pig prices in different regions decreased, with a maximum decrease of 0.35, and the basis decreased by 200 [15] - **Analysis**: Spot prices are weak, and the key to the market is the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, corn spot prices will be under pressure due to concentrated grain listings, but after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back supply. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short term, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor in the long term. Sugar prices are affected by international supply pressure and domestic import regulations, and domestic sugar cost is a support. Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and the downside is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to supply and demand factors, and the focus is on the chicken culling rhythm. Apple prices are expected to be volatile and upward in the short term due to production and quality issues. Pig prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory, and the key is the path of production and inventory reduction [2][5][7][13][15] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, corn prices in Changchun remained unchanged, increased by 10 in Jinzhou and Weifang, and remained unchanged in Shekou. The corn basis decreased by 9, trade profit decreased by 10, and import profit remained unchanged. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 21, and processing profit data was not provided [1] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices are pressured by concentrated grain listings. Starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices. Long - term: After the first peak of grain sales, corn prices may rebound as farmers may hold back supply. For starch, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [2] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30, sugar spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, decreased by 20 in Kunming, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 31, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11 [3][4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on sugar prices, and the ethanol cost provides support. Domestically, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the international market due to import regulations, and the domestic sugar cost is a support, but it may be broken if the global sugar surplus intensifies [5] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5, the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 1, the import profit decreased, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 196, the price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 20, the Vietnamese yarn import profit decreased by 10, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 25 [6] Market Analysis - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited, and the focus is on demand - side changes [7] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, increased by 0.06 in Hubei, the basis increased by 14, the price of white - feather broilers remained unchanged, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.16 [13] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is relieved by ordered chicken culling and reduced new production. Demand is boosted by longer storage time. The price has rebounded slightly, and the focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, increased by 30 in other areas, the 1 - month basis increased by 79, the 5 - month basis increased by 9, and the 10 - month basis increased [14][15] Market Analysis - New - season apples have production and quality issues. The opening price is higher than last year, and prices are expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [15] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05, remained unchanged in Shandong Linyi, and the basis increased by 115 [15] Market Analysis - Spot prices are weak on weekends. The second - fattening is weak after price increases, and slaughter volume is down. The key is the path of production and inventory reduction, and the focus is on factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]

Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 29, with corn and wheat prices increasing while soybean prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.34 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.46% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 3.25 cents or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.95 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.07% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The agricultural market has already priced in positive developments regarding trade situations, leading to a decline in soybean prices due to profit-taking [1] - Analysts suggest that unless severe drought occurs in South America, there is limited upside potential for crop prices [2]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/28 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/21 | 2020 | 2130 | 2170 | 2310 | -14 | 40 195 | 2700 | 2800 | 226 | 112 | | 2025/10/22 | 2020 | 2130 | 2180 | 2300 | -3 | 30 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 229 | 112 | | 2025/10/23 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2290 | -30 | 30 176 | 2700 | 2800 | 205 | 112 | | 2025/10/24 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2280 | -23 | 20 142 | 2700 | 2800 ...

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/10/10 5870 5800 5820 374 202 384 8867 2025/10/13 5850 5800 - 380 - - 8681 2025/10/14 5850 5810 5780 453 - - 8488 2025/10/15 5840 5790 5770 437 - - 8438 2025/10/16 5810 5790 5760 402 - - 8438 变化 -30 0 -10 -35 - - 0 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，制糖比略有 回落但仍处于历史高位，后期产量不确定性增加，关注双周报数据。国内整体跟随原糖，进口糖陆续到港，加工糖报价下调明显，盘面上方压 力较大。 | 棉花棉纱 | | | 棉花 | | | 棉纱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 3128 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Report team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Corn - Changchun** | 2230 | 2110 | 1980 | 1970 | 1970 | 0 | | **Corn - Jinzhou** | 2190 | 2130 | 2120 | 2100 | 2080 | -20 | | **Corn - Weifang** | 2264 | 2150 | 2140 | 2130 | 2120 | -10 | | **Corn - Shekou** | 2440 | 2410 | 2380 | 2340 | 2310 | -30 | | **Corn - Basis** | 47 | -8 | -5 | 8 | -13 | -21 | | **Corn - Trade Profit** | 115 | 145 | 125 | 105 | 90 | -15 | | **Corn - Import Profit** | 306 | 290 | 262 | 223 | 216 | -7 | | **Starch - Heilongjiang** | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | **Starch - Weifang** | 2850 | 2850 | 2850 | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | | **Starch - Basis** | 237 | 225 | 223 | 254 | 270 | 16 | | **Starch - Processing Profit** | 9 | 86 | 96 | 126 | - | - | [3] Market Analysis - **Corn**: New - season corn has been listed. Short - term prices will be weak due to concentrated supply. Mid - to long - term, focus on the game between farmers and traders. With increased production and lower costs, prices are approaching cost. Low prices and good quality may trigger farmers' resistance to selling, leading to a price rebound [4]. - **Starch**: After the holiday, raw material prices are down, but starch price adjustment is limited due to high production costs. Short - term, lower raw material prices and rising inventory will suppress starch prices. Mid - to long - term, price drops may stimulate downstream replenishment and support prices [4]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Sugar - Liuzhou** | 5890 | 5870 | 5870 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | **Sugar - Nanning** | 5780 | 5800 | 5800 | 5800 | 5810 | 10 | | **Sugar - Kunming** | 5810 | 5820 | 5820 | - | 5780 | - | | **Sugar - Liuzhou Basis** | 397 | 342 | 374 | 380 | 453 | 73 | | **Sugar - Thai Import Profit** | 232 | 160 | 202 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Brazilian Import Profit** | 414 | 341 | 384 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts** | 8968 | 8898 | 8867 | 8681 | 8488 | -193 | [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazil's yield and sugar - extraction rate are low, and the sugar - making ratio is high, increasing production uncertainty. The domestic market follows the international market, with imported sugar arriving and downward pressure on prices [5]. Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Cotton - 3128** | 14545 | 14500 | 14500 | 14450 | 14425 | -25 | | **Cotton - Imported M - grade US Cotton** | 75.2 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 73.6 | 73.4 | - | | **Cotton - CotlookA(FE)** | 76.9 | 76.6 | 76.1 | 75.3 | - | - | | **Cotton - Import Profit** | 1059 | 1063 | 1152 | 1214 | - | - | | **Cotton - Warehouse Receipts + Forecast** | 3103 | 3041 | 2970 | 2898 | 2875 | -23 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Spot** | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit** | 267 | 200 | 219 | 205 | 203 | -2 | | **Cotton Yarn - 32S Spinning Profit** | -507 | -465 | -465 | -412 | -386 | 26 | [16] Market Analysis - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom. Downside is limited, and focus on demand changes [6]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 - 14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Eggs - Hebei** | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 2.78 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Liaoning** | 3.33 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.71 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Shandong** | 3.45 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Henan** | 3.45 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Hubei** | 3.53 | 3.02 | 2.93 | 2.70 | 0.05 | | **Eggs - Basis** | 731 | 420 | 461 | 245 | -113.00 | | **Eggs - White - feather Broiler** | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 | | **Eggs - Yellow - feather Broiler** | 3.65 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Pigs** | 19.31 | 18.64 | 18.85 | 18.48 | 0.01 | [12] Market Analysis - Before the holiday, there was high uncertainty about holiday consumption and post - holiday restocking. Spot prices dropped 12.5% during the holiday, and the futures market declined after the holiday. In the short term, supply is high, demand is seasonally low, and prices are expected to be weak. Focus on the pace of culling hens, which can support prices [12]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Apples - Shandong 80 First and Second - grade** | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 0.00 | | **Apples - Shaanxi 70 Common** | - | - | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | | **Apples - 1 - month Basis** | -1117.00 | -1133.00 | -1244.00 | -1138.00 | -1164.00 | -26.00 | | **Apples - 5 - month Basis** | -933.00 | -1022.00 | -1175.00 | -1127.00 | -1161.00 | -34.00 | | **Apples - 10 - month Basis** | -1688.00 | -1680.00 | -1675.00 | -1650.00 | -1700.00 | -50.00 | [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new season, apples in the western region are being bag - removed, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. Production in the west may increase slightly, but tree - felling is a problem. Shandong may see a 20% reduction. Overall, production is similar to last year, and quality is affected in some areas. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin [13]. Group 7: Pigs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Pigs - Henan Kaifeng** | 12.43 | 11.28 | 11.18 | 10.93 | 10.98 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Hubei Xiangyang** | 12.30 | 11.25 | 11.05 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 0.00 | | **Pigs - Shandong Linyi** | 12.67 | 11.67 | 11.27 | 10.97 | 11.07 | 0.10 | | **Pigs - Anhui Hefei** | 12.95 | 11.70 | 11.30 | 11.25 | 11.30 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Jiangsu Nantong** | 13.00 | 11.75 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.35 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Basis** | 75 | -315 | -140 | -195 | -470 | -275.00 | [13] Market Analysis - Releasing short - term pressure may strengthen policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. Short - term rebounds due to low prices are possible, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Short - term supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are at new lows. Focus on the pace of slaughter, diseases, and policies [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound slightly [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebound and oscillate [2][11]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][14]. - Sugar: Range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Cotton: The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season is coming to an end, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared, and short positions should be held [2][31]. - Peanuts: Oscillate weakly [2][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm oil and Soybean oil Fundamental Data - Futures: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,236 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.15%), 9,278 yuan/ton at night (+0.45%); Soybean oil主力 closed at 8,162 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.37%), 8,178 yuan/ton at night (+0.20%) [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,230 yuan/ton (+60); First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,550 yuan/ton (+30) [5]. - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 6 yuan/ton; Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 388 yuan/ton [5]. Macro and Industry News - Global palm oil and soybean oil prices are expected to rise by 100 - 150 dollars/ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightening [6]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by a surge in palm oil purchases [8]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [9]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25, 2025 were estimated to be 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [9]. 2. Soybean meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3935 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.13%), 3938 yuan/ton at night (-0.05%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2937 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.81%), 2936 yuan/ton at night (-0.44%) [11]. - Spot: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal was M2601 + 40/+50/+70/+80, etc. [11]. Macro and Industry News - On September 26, 2025, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher, but due to China's large - scale purchases of Argentine soybeans this week, the purchases of US supplies were insufficient, causing soybean futures to fall for the second consecutive week [11][13]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - Futures: C2511 closed at 2178 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.55%), 2184 yuan/ton at night (+0.28%); C2601 closed at 2139 yuan/ton during the day session (+0.14%), 2144 yuan/ton at night (+0.23%) [14]. - Spot: The price in Guangdong Shekou was 2440 yuan/ton (+20) [14]. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton in some areas; the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [15]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - Futures: The futures main price was 5478 yuan/ton (-7) [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5840 yuan/ton (0) [19]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year [19]. - As of September 27, 2025, India's monsoon precipitation was 7.5% higher than the long - term average [19]. - Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption [19]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - Futures: CF2601 closed at 13405 yuan/ton during the day session (-0.92%), 13490 yuan/ton at night (+0.63%) [24]. - Spot: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14677 yuan/ton (0) [24]. Macro and Industry News - The cotton spot market is mainly pre - selling new cotton for the 2025/26 season, with stable prices and slightly more concessions [25]. - The ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound last Friday, and the poor export sales of US cotton limited its upward momentum [26]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Futures: Eggs 2510 closed at 2940 yuan/500 kg (-1.24%); Eggs 2601 closed at 3354 yuan/500 kg (-0.33%) [29]. - Spot: The Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (-0.10) [29]. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Futures: Pigs 2511 closed at 12575 yuan/ton (-110); Pigs 2601 closed at 13100 yuan/ton (-210) [31]. - Spot: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton (0) [31]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - Futures: PK510 closed at 7788 yuan/ton (+0.23%); PK511 closed at 7798 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [34]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (-60) [34]. Macro and Industry News - In the Henan Zhengyang area, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.1 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and in most producing areas, the prices were stable [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching the market, enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, and prices are running weakly, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs, and may reverse when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing raw corn decreases, enterprises are likely to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season is weighing on sugar prices. Domestic prices are following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving at ports and processed sugar prices dropping [5]. - Cotton: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Since September, the spot price has rebounded by nearly 40% due to increased demand and traders' "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs cap the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of culled hens and cold - storage egg release [10]. - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national output may not differ much from last year. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output [12]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The spot price has hit a new low this year, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Focus on factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for the missing data on the 22nd), the price in Jinzhou fluctuated from 2260 to 2250, and the price in Weifang remained at 2264. The price in Shekou remained at 2420. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2850 respectively [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weakening due to new - season supply, and starch price is expected to decline to reduce inventory. Long - term, both are under price - downward pressure [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 40, 30, and 25 respectively. The import profits from Thailand and Brazil increased by 23 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [5]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices follow the international trend with increasing imported sugar supply [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 75, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 50. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 63, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 29 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and focus on demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while the price in Hubei decreased by 0.11. The basis decreased by 40, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08 [10]. - **Analysis**: Spot price has rebounded, but high inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below feed cost [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed by - 18, 7, and - 11 respectively [11][12]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Monitor the final output [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20, 0.20, 0.10, and 0.20 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 170 [16]. - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price has hit a new low. Focus on slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16].