Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China has reached a historic high of 37.02 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has surpassed this threshold, with continuous growth over the past eight months [1] - The macroeconomic trends are expected to drive a significant increase in copper prices by 2026, influenced by the restructuring of global trade orders and the demand from AI-related industries [1] Group 2 - Several banks, including Beijing Bank and Shanghai Bank, have announced the redemption of preferred shares, with a total redemption scale of 458 billion yuan in December [2] - The lithium iron phosphate industry is facing challenges due to rising raw material prices and reduced production plans, with companies collectively planning to cut production by 35% to 50% [2] Group 3 - SoftBank is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire DigitalBridge Group, focusing on investments in data centers as part of its strategy to capitalize on the AI-driven digital infrastructure boom [3] - Meta has announced the acquisition of AI company Manus for a deal potentially worth several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date [4] Group 4 - The restructuring plan for 38 companies under Suning has been approved, with total debts amounting to 238.73 billion yuan [5] - BYD has denied rumors regarding the launch of flying cars, clarifying that there are no such plans [5] Group 5 - The second-hand market for Labubu products has seen significant price drops, with some items falling below their original prices [6] - Fujian Ningde Rural Commercial Bank has been fined 1.25 million yuan for multiple loan business violations [6] Group 6 - Shenzhen Edge Medical is seeking to raise 1.2 billion HKD through an IPO in Hong Kong, with shares expected to start trading on January 8 [7] - Shanghai Iluvatar Corex Semiconductor is also applying for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to issue 25.4 million shares [7] Group 7 - *ST Panda has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [10] - Oriental Fashion's stock continues to face risk warnings due to negative audit opinions and uncertainty regarding its ability to continue as a going concern [11] Group 8 - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is on track for its largest annual decline since 2009, reflecting reduced recession risks due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [12] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with notable drops in major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia [12] Group 9 - Silver prices experienced a significant drop after briefly surpassing $80, while gold also saw a sharp decline, nearing $4,300 [13]

(本文来自第一财经) 中信建投研报指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将会在2026年将推升 铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序构建（铜价拉 升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工业制造核心基 础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税冲击（金价拉 升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产业浪潮催生的 新动能需求将会持续释放，AI数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门的"喘气"，2025年 大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉升）。货币宽松政 策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回暖，巩固铜需求基本 盘。 ...

中信建投宏观首席周君芝最近研究指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将 会在2026年将推升铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序 构建（铜价拉升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工 业制造核心基础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税 冲击（金价拉升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产 业浪潮催生的新动能需求将会持续释放，AI 数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门 的"喘气"，2025年大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉 升）。货币宽松政策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回 暖，巩固铜需求基本盘。 ...

经济学家任泽平发文，提出未来十年中国经济的十大趋势。1. 2035年中国经济规模将超过美国，成为世 界第一大经济体，全球经济、贸易、科技、地缘秩序重新洗牌，未来十年将是大国博弈的关键期。2. 人 工智能的超级应用大爆发，成为经济的新增长点，引领新一轮康波周期，成为新一代年轻人人生逆袭和 财富逆袭的机会。3. 生命科学取得重大突破，在AI的助力下创新药研发势如破竹，人的寿命被大幅提 高到120岁，60岁被称为银发青年。4. 人形机器人在社会上到处都是，替代人类的简单重复劳动，人类 解放出来从事创造、社交、情感活动。5. 自动驾驶势不可挡，燃油车彻底被淘汰，自动驾驶将是城市交 通拥堵、空气污染和安全出行的终极解决方案。6. 新型绿色能源体系诞生，光伏、风电和可控核聚变彻 底替代煤电，能源供应体系转型为"分布式发电+储能"，地球温室效应极大改善。7. 后房地产时代到 来，市场二八分化，20%人口流入地区的房价有望触底甚至创新高，80%人口流出地区的房价漫长阴 跌。8. 人口老龄化、少子化、不婚化到来，银发经济、宠物经济、单身经济、情绪消费崛起，机器人和 AI助手越来越走进人类生活，成为每个人的伙伴、甚至恋人和伴侣。 ...

2024年，中国进口大豆1.05亿吨，花了3700多亿。这笔钱，大头流向了巴西和美国，而家门口的俄罗斯 大豆，只能在门缝里看热闹。 有人骂这是"资敌"，有人说是"崇洋"。 别急着喷。这不是简单的买卖，而是一场关乎14亿人饭碗与国家命运的"土地代偿战"。 残酷的算术题 这事儿得先算一笔"土地账"。 中国每年吃掉的大豆，如果全靠自己种，需要7亿到9亿亩耕地。 这什么概念？中国18亿亩耕地红线，拿出一半种大豆，那主粮水稻和小麦种哪？ 这是个死局。 进口1亿吨大豆，本质上是在向全世界"租用"土地和水资源。 谁有这么多地租给我们？ 放眼全球，只有南北美洲那两块得天独厚的大平原——美国和巴西。 看看数据对比，残酷得让人清醒。 就算俄罗斯人一颗不吃，全卖给中国，也不过是6%的零头。 这点量，连塞牙缝都不够。 更致命的，是"含油率"。 这又是一个反直觉的真相：中国买大豆，根本不是为了吃豆腐，而是为了"榨油"和"喂猪"。 90%的进口大豆，进了压榨厂。 美国转基因大豆，专为工业设计，出油率高达20%，抗虫抗草，产量极其稳定。 俄罗斯非转基因大豆，蛋白高、油少（出油率约17%），那是给人吃的，不是给机器榨的。 美国大豆年产1.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan, breaking the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, signifies a shift in trade dynamics and reflects the underlying geopolitical strategies among major economies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The yuan's rise is attributed to a record trade surplus and strong export performance, leading to increased foreign exchange earnings [6]. - The appreciation is not merely a result of market supply and demand but is part of a calculated strategy in the context of global power dynamics [4][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The ongoing competition among the US, Europe, and China has intensified, with the US recognizing China's advancements in high-end technology and manufacturing capabilities [10]. - The US has initiated a process of de-globalization, attempting to bring manufacturing back home through tariffs and technology restrictions, which has led to a coordinated depreciation of the yuan by Western economies [12][10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to external pressures, China has opted for a proactive strategy of allowing the yuan to appreciate, countering the intended effects of Western economic policies [14][20]. - This strategy aims to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on export profits by encouraging price increases, thus protecting domestic businesses from a price war [16][20]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The strategy of price increases is seen as a means to strengthen leading industry players and promote technological advancements, as weaker firms are likely to be eliminated in the process [22][24]. - By allowing for moderate price increases, China aims to provide breathing room for Western manufacturers, thereby avoiding a complete collapse of their industries and fostering a more stable competitive environment [26][30]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Despite the yuan's appreciation, Chinese exports remain robust, with trade surpluses continuing to rise, indicating a persistent reliance on Chinese goods by Western economies [30][33]. - The current market dynamics have led to increased demand for commodities, with prices for metals like copper and aluminum reaching new highs, driven by Western countries' stockpiling in response to supply chain vulnerabilities [36][40]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The ongoing developments in the yuan's valuation and China's strategic positioning in global trade are expected to continue shaping the landscape of international finance and economic relations [42][44]. - The narrative of China's manufacturing resilience and strategic foresight is likely to play a significant role in its future economic trajectory and global standing [44].

社交媒体上的视频显示，空袭过后，目标区域升起滚滚浓烟。 视频 截图 这是8月11日在也门亚丁郊区拍摄的在也门政府与胡塞武装冲突中被毁的建筑。 新华社 图 据也门安全官员和当地媒体消息，沙特阿拉伯12月26日出动战机对也门东南部哈德拉毛省的地方势力南 方过渡委员会相关军事据点发动空袭。目前暂未有人员伤亡报道。 多次空袭地方势力据点 不愿透露姓名的安全官员对记者说："沙特发动多次空袭，其目标是南方过渡委员会相关的安全部队据 点。" 这名官员表示，沙特12月25日要求南方过渡委员会从哈德拉毛省撤军，次日便发生空袭，使局势进一步 升级。"空袭意在警告南方过渡委员会，要么撤出其在哈德拉毛省的据点，要么将面临进一步的军事行 动。" 当地居民对记者说，该省部分地区听到巨大爆炸声。社交媒体上的视频显示，空袭过后，目标区域升起 滚滚浓烟。 据南方过渡委员会控制的媒体报道，沙特对南方过渡委员会在哈德拉毛省盖勒·本·亚明地区的部队实施 了空袭。 沙特方面尚未就此次空袭发表评论。 沙特外交部25日表示，南方过渡委员会近期在也门南部两个省份的部队部署构成"不合理升级"，损害也 门利益，并使恢复稳定的努力更加复杂。一个沙特-阿联酋联合军 ...

180万桶原油被扣！三航母集结，中国反制美"能源劫掠"要拼血本？ 【前言】 "这哪是石油交易？分明是大国博弈的'火药桶'！"2025年12月22日，特朗普政府在加勒比海强行扣押"世纪号"油轮，180万桶原油瞬间从"商品"沦为"武器"。 这批原本计划运往中国的石油，不仅暴露了美国对华能源路线的"堵截"野心，更让解放军三航母集结的传闻登上热搜——当美军航母战斗群在美国家门口虎 视眈眈，中国若真要"跨海反制"，代价究竟有多大？ 一、美国"能源劫掠"背后的三重算计 若解放军三航母编队（总舰载机约150架）与055大驱、052D神盾舰、093B核潜艇、901补给舰组成编队，理论上具备与美军航母战斗群"周旋"能力。但"周 旋"不等于"胜利"——美军在加勒比海的岸基优势，相当于给航母战斗群装了"外挂"，而解放军航母编队若要抵达目标海域，需以30节航速航行11天，加上 整备补给，耗时更久。更现实的问题是，这种"跨海反制"相当于押注海军核心战力，代价之高昂，堪比"赌国运"。 三、反制不止"硬碰硬"，中国有更智慧的"破局之道" 特朗普宣称"没收原油及油轮"的举动，看似是"海盗式"抢劫，实则藏着精妙的战略布局。据《华尔街日报》披露 ...

50%的关税砸向了印度班加罗尔最大的玩具厂仓库里面，2000万美元的圣诞玩具堆成了山却发不出去，1500万美元的新订单全黄了，特朗普的贸易重拳，瞬 间就击碎了印度替代中国做玩具大国的美梦。 这不是单一工厂的悲剧，而是全球供应链替代神话的残酷现实，所以想要靠搭上地缘政治的便车，取代中国制造业的国家，都躲不过这一场收割。 今年的8月份，特朗普重返白宫以后，就对印度的商品加征高达50%的关税，直接就导致了印度玩具制造商的美国订单被大量的取消。 印度曾经是期待在中美贸易摩擦中渔翁得利的，但是如今却被同一套关税武器给精准的打击了。 维詹德拉·巴布的工厂曾经是跟美泰、孩之宝等全球的玩具巨头签订了合同，每天是发送十几辆满载圣诞玩具的货车。 但是特朗普的关税生效以后，他的客户暂停或者是直接取消了价值1500万美元的新订单，仓库里面是积压了2000万美元没有办法发货的商品。 巴布是这样描述的：这就像是按下了暂停键一样。他原本是预计今年增长40%的，现在却面临着15%的下滑。 为了维持生产线的正常运转，他甚至是同意以成本价来进行生产，只为避免裁掉2000多名工人。 特朗普的关税大棒，他是不分敌友的，印度试图想要在中美博弈当中左右 ...