证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升 相关研究： | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | --- | | 弱》 20251116 | | 《本周行业表现延续弱势，轻重稀土价格走 | | 势分化》 20251109 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -12 -9 46 绝对收益 -15 -5 57 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准 1.52 pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准（沪深 300）1.52 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 3.97x 至 69.94x，当前处于 84.1%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周轻稀土精矿价格回升，中重 ...

**导读：稀土主导地位是否会动摇？澳大利亚攻克提炼技术，或不再受制约？** 据《联合早报》报道，澳大利亚的莱纳斯公司成功突破了重稀土氧化镝的 提炼技术，成为全球首家在中国以外地区实现重稀土商业化加工的企业。莱纳斯公司表示，此次实现的商业化生产，意味着他们为欧美国家开辟了新的供应 渠道，使其在稀土供应上不再受制于中国。 除此之外，莱纳斯还计划在半年内实现另一种稀土元素——铽的商业化生产。公司透露，已经收到了来自美国 价值2.58亿美元的订单，并决定在美国得克萨斯州建立新的生产基地。 此消息一出，西方媒体反应激烈，纷纷称这是打破中国主导地位的重大突破，并对莱纳斯取得的成功表示热烈祝贺。然而，事实上，许多西方稀土领域的专 家对这一进展持担忧态度。 此前，由于美国在多个领域发起的对抗行动，中国不得不采取相应的反制措施。除了加征关税外，中国还显著加强了对稀土出 口的管制。然而，中国并未采取一刀切的做法，而是保留了合理的贸易通道。外资企业若有进口中国稀土的需求，仍可通过申请获得相关许可。 然而，在 接受英国《金融时报》采访时，西方稀土领域的专家却抱怨中国出口许可的审批速度过慢，远远不能满足欧洲企业的需求。因此，部分西方媒 ...

10月底，公司宣布投资约1.8亿美元新建设施，年处理能力提升至5000吨重稀土原料，预计2026年4月投 产，包括钐产品输出。 稀土元素作为现代工业基础材料，在国防和高科技领域发挥不可或缺作用。重稀土如镝和铽用于制造高 强度磁体和耐高温合金，这些部件支撑战斗机、导弹和电动汽车等关键设备。全球稀土资源分布虽广， 但加工环节高度集中。 中国通过长期技术积累和产业链优化，掌控全球90%以上稀土精炼产能，特别是重稀土分离接近 100%。这种优势源于国内资源整合和创新驱动，南方赣州和北方包头形成专业分工，确保供应高效稳 定。西方国家视此为潜在风险，推动多样化布局，但实际进展需面对技术门槛和成本挑战。 澳大利亚莱纳斯稀土公司在马来西亚关丹工厂实现重稀土分离突破，于2025年5月产出首批氧化镝，并 计划扩展至铽等元素。该工厂年产能初设1500吨分离氧化物，针对军工需求设计。 中国稀土优势体现在技术制高点，中科院无稀土永磁体技术预计2026年商用，性能接近传统，适用于电 机领域，潜在减少重稀土需求。包头研究院基因工程实验室模拟材料性能，加速创新。 这一步骤源于西方战略调整，自2020年代初，美欧日加大投资海外项目，旨在减少对 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. is forming a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" with multiple countries to restructure supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources, aiming to dominate the AI and green industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Formation and Objectives of the Trading Club - The "Critical Minerals Trading Club" aims to be a core platform for Western countries to engage in the refining and processing of critical minerals, with the ultimate goal of leading the AI competition [2] - The club has already begun formation with participation from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand [2] - The initiative reflects a broader strategy among Western nations to fill gaps in internal mineral trade systems and promote industry expansion [2][3] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - There is a significant surge in interest and investment in critical minerals like rare earths and lithium, leading to what is being termed a "rare earth rush" [1][6] - The U.S. and Australia are expected to see substantial growth in rare earth trade, with a projected 67% increase in trade volume in 2024 [6] - The Biden administration's support for domestic clean energy projects has already led to a rise in lithium-related stock prices, indicating a favorable market environment for critical minerals [6][7] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The restructuring of supply chains faces challenges such as technological limitations, cost issues, and differing interests among member countries [1][2] - The U.S. still relies on traditional methods for processing rare earths, which may not meet the high-end industry demands, indicating a need for external technological support [3] - There are warnings about potential investment overheating in the critical minerals sector, with historical parallels drawn to past resource booms [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain independent of China, which currently holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, controlling over 90% of global refining capacity [3][10] - The formation of the trading club is seen as a strategic move to weaken China's influence in global supply chains [10][11] - The differing objectives among member countries, such as resource pricing and environmental standards, may complicate the club's effectiveness [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is forming a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" with multiple countries to restructure supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources, aiming to dominate the AI and green industries. However, challenges such as technology, costs, and internal member interests may hinder this initiative, while some countries face risks of overheating investments in critical mineral assets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Formation of the Trading Club - The U.S. plans to create a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" as a core platform for Western countries to engage in critical mineral refining and processing trade, with the ultimate goal of leading the AI competition [2][4]. - The club has already begun formation with participation from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand [2]. Group 2: Energy Security and Policy Implications - Energy security is deemed crucial for the U.S. to maintain its global influence, with critical minerals being essential for AI production [4]. - The U.S. Treasury announced a "Mineral Security Partnership Financing Network" involving over ten countries, managing assets exceeding $30 trillion to support mineral trade projects [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The global trade of rare earths is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 67% increase in U.S.-Australia rare earth trade in 2024 and a 52% rise in intra-EU rare earth semi-finished product transactions [8]. - U.S. stocks related to lithium and rare earths have surged, with some companies seeing stock price increases of over 300% this year [9][10]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context and Challenges - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain independent of China, which currently dominates the rare earth market with over 90% of global refining capacity [5][12]. - There are discrepancies in the objectives of participating countries in the trading club, with the U.S. seeking rule-making power, while resource-rich countries like Australia and Canada aim to increase mineral prices and exports [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Risks - Experts warn of potential overheating in the critical minerals market, drawing parallels to past resource booms, indicating that many companies may not succeed in this sector [11]. - The transition to a more sustainable and independent supply chain is expected to be long and costly, with significant challenges ahead [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The global rare earth supply chain is undergoing a significant transformation, with Japan's Sojitz Corporation beginning to import rare earths from Australia, challenging China's dominant position in the market [1][5]. Supply Chain Breakthrough - Sojitz Corporation's rare earth imports come from the Weld Range mine in Western Australia [3]. - These raw materials are processed in Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia before being shipped to Japan [4]. Strategic Concerns - The primary driver behind this initiative is Japan's deep concern for its "economic security" [5]. - Dysprosium and terbium, classified as strategic heavy rare earth elements, are crucial for manufacturing high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and various high-tech military products [5][6]. China's Dominance - China accounts for 70% of global rare earth production, and nearly 100% in the more technologically advanced and scarce heavy rare earth sector [6]. Industry Challenges - Japanese automaker Suzuki had to suspend production of certain models earlier this year due to rare earth supply issues [7]. - Sojitz's president acknowledged that while new import channels are significant, they cannot fully meet domestic demand, indicating the need for further supply chain strengthening [8][20]. Emerging Supply Chain - Lynas Rare Earths has become a key player in this new supply chain, receiving a 200 million AUD investment from Sojitz and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) [8]. - Lynas will supply up to 65% of dysprosium and terbium from the Weld Range mine to Japan [8]. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - The collaboration between Japan and Australia is part of a broader acceleration in the restructuring of global rare earth supply chains [10]. - Japan and the EU are considering joint efforts to reduce dependence on China in rare earth supply and other areas [11]. Regional Opportunities - The Malaysian government is inviting foreign investment to develop rare earth resources, with an estimated 1.6 million tons of rare earth reserves [13]. - Malaysia plans to implement an export ban on unprocessed rare earth materials starting January 1, 2024, to encourage local development and processing [14]. High Costs - The logistics costs of transporting rare earths from Australia and the U.S. to Southeast Asia for processing, then back to Japan, are significantly higher than direct imports from China [16]. - The low concentration of heavy rare earths in ores and the complexity of the extraction process further increase the final product prices [17]. Competitive Landscape - The entire process from ore extraction to element separation involves significant technical barriers and capital investment, which are core competitive factors for companies [18]. - The trilateral cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and Australia has initiated 89 rare earth exploration projects, but building a complete supply chain may take a decade [19]. Market Dynamics - The global rare earth market is characterized by a complex interplay of resource competition, technology, funding, and geopolitical factors [21]. - While the restructuring of the market has begun, breaking the existing dominance will require considerable time and effort [22].

Group 1 - Sojitz Corporation has begun importing dysprosium and terbium from the Mount Weld mine in Australia, with the materials processed in Malaysia before being shipped to Japan [2] - Lynas Rare Earths, the operator of the Mount Weld mine, received an investment of 200 million AUD (approximately 930 million RMB) from a joint venture established by Sojitz and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) in 2023 [2] - Lynas will supply Japan with up to 65% of the mine's dysprosium and terbium output, which corresponds to about 30% of Japan's market demand [2] Group 2 - Dysprosium and terbium are classified as heavy rare earth elements, which are less abundant than light rare earths and are primarily used in manufacturing high-performance neodymium magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbine motors [3] - Japan views diversifying supply sources outside of China as a key aspect of economic security, as China currently accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth production, with almost all heavy rare earth supply coming from China [3] - However, cost remains a significant barrier, as sourcing materials from Australia and the U.S. for processing in Southeast Asia will lead to higher costs compared to direct imports from China [3] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has implemented export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard national security and interests, requiring licenses for the export of specific technologies related to rare earth mining, refining, and manufacturing [4][5] - The announcement specifies that any export of controlled items without permission is prohibited, and exporters must apply for licenses to provide any assistance related to rare earth activities outside of China [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has begun importing rare earth elements from Australia, marking its first acquisition of this critical resource from outside China, which is seen as a significant step towards diversifying supply sources for economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Import Details - Sojitz Corporation has started importing dysprosium and terbium from the Mount Weld mine in Australia, with these materials processed in Malaysia before being shipped to Japan [1]. - Lynas Rare Earths, the operator of the Mount Weld mine, received an investment of AUD 200 million (approximately RMB 930 million) from a joint venture established by Sojitz and the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in 2023 [1]. - Lynas will supply up to 65% of the dysprosium and terbium output from the mine, which corresponds to about 30% of Japan's market demand for these elements [1]. Group 2: Economic Security and Cost Implications - Japan views the diversification of supply sources outside of China as a key aspect of its economic security strategy, given that China currently accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth production, with heavy rare earths almost entirely sourced from China [2]. - The cost of importing rare earths from Australia and the U.S. is expected to be significantly higher than sourcing directly from China, primarily due to the lower concentration of heavy rare earths in ores and the inefficiencies in mining and transportation [2]. - The price of the heavy rare earths imported by Sojitz from Australia is reported to be higher than that of Chinese products [2].

Core Insights - Sojitz Corporation has begun importing rare earth elements from Australia, marking Japan's first procurement of these critical materials from outside China [1][3] - The imported materials, specifically dysprosium and terbium from the Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, will be processed in Southeast Asia before being shipped to Japan [1][3] Group 1: Investment and Supply Chain - Lynas Rare Earths, the operator of the Mount Weld mine, received a 200 million AUD investment from a joint venture between Sojitz and the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) [3] - Lynas will supply up to 65% of dysprosium and terbium from the Mount Weld mine to Japan [3] Group 2: Economic Security Concerns - Japan's move to diversify its rare earth supply chain is driven by deep concerns over "economic security," particularly after China announced export restrictions on dysprosium, terbium, and other rare earth elements [3][5] - The reliance on Chinese rare earths has led to production halts in Japanese factories, including those of Suzuki and Ford [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Japan is actively working to establish a supply chain that does not depend on Chinese rare earths, with recent agreements made during the Japan-U.S. meeting to create a stable rare earth procurement framework [5] - JOGMEC has also invested approximately 100 million euros in a rare earth processing project planned by French company Caremag [5] Group 4: Challenges and Costs - China controls nearly 70% of global rare earth production, and in the more technologically advanced heavy rare earth sector, this figure approaches 100%, indicating significant challenges for Japan in terms of technology and cost [5] - The logistics of transporting rare earths from Australia and the U.S. to Southeast Asia for processing before returning to Japan will increase costs significantly compared to direct imports from China [5] - The low concentration of heavy rare earths in ores and the complexity of the extraction process further elevate the final product prices [5]

日本首次从澳大利亚进口重稀土据日经新闻消息，日本综合商社双日于10月30日前首次进口澳大利亚产重稀土。本次先由莱纳斯公司（Lynas）在西澳大利亚州的韦尔德山矿山开采稀土，再在马来西亚将其分离和提炼成镝和铽，之后再运往日本。未来双日将采购日本国内需求的30%左右。 ...