Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various policies and developments from October 18 to November 6, 2025. It includes a comparison of the communiqués of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, and updates on macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. These policies aim to promote economic growth, enhance fiscal sustainability, maintain financial stability, and improve the overall economic environment [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of the Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee - **Previous work evaluation**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee affirmed the work of the Political Bureau since the Third Plenary Session, with the "14th Five - Year Plan" goals nearly achieved. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee noted that economic growth was better than expected and people's lives were well - protected [12][15]. - **Last five - year plan summary**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee highly evaluated the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements, while the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee focused on the decisive achievements in building a moderately prosperous society [12][15]. - **Situation analysis**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee pointed out that the "15th Five - Year Plan" period has both strategic opportunities and risks, while the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee considered China to be in an important strategic opportunity period [12][15]. - **Guiding ideology and principles**: Both emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "high - quality development," but the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee stressed "taking economic construction as the center," and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee emphasized "supply - side structural reform" [13][15]. - **Economic and social development goals**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee focused on high - quality development and technological self - reliance, while the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee emphasized overall economic development [13][15]. - **Long - term goals**: Both aimed for significant improvements in economic and other strengths by 2035, but the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee also mentioned income growth [13][15]. - **Policy deployment and ranking**: The modern industrial system, opening - up, and people's livelihood protection moved up in ranking, while technological self - reliance moved down [14]. 2. Macro - economic Tone: The Proposal for the 15th Five - Year Plan is Released, and Quasi - fiscal Tools are Expected to Drive Investment over 7 Trillion Yuan - **Policy release**: On October 28, Xinhua News Agency released the proposal, which includes forward - looking layout of future industries, key technology breakthroughs, and consumption boosting [16][20]. - **Ministry meetings**: Ministries such as the SASAC, NDRC, and MOFCOM held meetings to implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on state - owned enterprise development, project research, and trade promotion [17][19]. - **Quasi - fiscal tools**: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial tools have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in total project investment, supporting key areas and weak links [18][20]. 3. Fiscal Policy: Enhance Fiscal Sustainability, and Two Departments Issue Gold Tax Policies - **Policy tone**: The 15th Five - Year Plan proposal advocates an active fiscal policy to enhance sustainability, including scientific management, resource coordination, and debt management [21][23]. - **Gold tax policy**: On November 1, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified the gold tax policy, with different VAT treatments for different sales channels [22][24]. - **Surplus quota use**: Of the 500 billion yuan surplus quota, 300 billion is for debt resolution, and 200 billion is for project investment [22][23]. 4. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank Restarts Treasury Bond Trading, with a Net Purchase of 20 Billion Yuan in October - **Learning meetings**: The central bank held meetings to learn the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee, and the governor affirmed the bond market's operation range [25][27]. - **Macro - prudential management**: The central bank emphasized building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and a risk prevention and disposal mechanism [25][27]. - **Treasury bond trading**: The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, and there may be more room for future purchases [26][28]. 5. Financial Supervision: Details of the Reform of the Performance Comparison Benchmark for Public Funds are Released, and New Regulations for Asset Management Trusts are Introduced - **Banking**: Small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates, and Postal Savings Bank has been approved to establish a financial asset investment company [29][33]. - **Insurance**: The insurance industry association held a meeting, and the current research value of the expected interest rate for personal insurance is 1.90% [30]. - **Funds**: The CSRC solicited opinions on the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," aiming to standardize the benchmark's role [31]. - **Trusts**: The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft of the "Administrative Measures for Asset Management Trusts," covering the whole business chain and setting "red lines" [32]. 6. Real Estate Policy: Promote the Spot - sale System, and the Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal Ratio in Shenzhen is Reduced to 80% - **Policy tone**: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed promoting the spot - sale system to achieve high - quality development in the real estate industry [6]. - **Housing provident fund**: The housing provident fund withdrawal ratio for renting in Shenzhen has been adjusted from 100% to 80% [6]. 7. Tariff Policy: The Chinese and US Presidents Met, Lowering the "Fentanyl Tariff" and Suspending the "Reciprocal Tariff" for One Year - **Sino - US meetings**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 24 - 27, and the leaders met on the 30th [7]. - **Consultation results**: The US agreed to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed trading government bonds in the secondary market, purchasing 20 billion yuan worth of bonds in October 2025, indicating a strategic move to enhance liquidity and align with fiscal policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In October 2025, the PBOC's liquidity provision remained reasonably ample, with a focus on the introduction of new policy financial tools to support technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilization of foreign trade [2][6]. - The PBOC's bond trading operations are seen as a significant policy reserve, with plans to incorporate these operations into the central bank's policy toolbox starting in 2024 [4][5]. - The PBOC aims to flexibly conduct both buying and selling of government bonds based on the needs for base currency issuance and market conditions, ensuring smooth monetary policy transmission and stable financial market operations [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Coordination - The PBOC's bond trading operations are primarily focused on releasing liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policies, particularly in the context of local government debt issuance [5][6]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue the practice of pre-allocating new local government debt limits for 2026 to support major projects and ensure timely funding for key initiatives [6][7]. - Recent arrangements for local government debt limits have increased in scale and expanded in scope, with 500 billion yuan allocated to support local governments in addressing existing debt and enhancing investment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse, highlighting the need for enhanced competitiveness and influence in the global financial landscape [2] Group 1: Financial Development Goals - The 15th Five-Year Plan sets the overarching requirement of building a financial powerhouse, with a focus on enhancing China's global financial competitiveness and participation in international financial governance reform [2] - The plan identifies the construction of a modern industrial system and technological innovation as key strategic tasks that require robust financial support [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The plan calls for the improvement of the central bank system and the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to ensure effective monetary policy transmission [3] - Emphasis is placed on balancing the timing and intensity of monetary policy, avoiding excessive liquidity while ensuring sufficient support for economic recovery [3] - The plan advocates for enhanced coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support major projects and maintain financial stability [3] Group 3: Macro-Prudential Management System - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be developed to monitor systemic risks more accurately and maintain financial market stability [4] - The plan includes optimizing the macro-prudential assessment framework and enhancing the regulatory focus on systemically important financial institutions [4] - The toolbox for macro-prudential policies will be expanded to address potential liquidity risks and ensure coordinated efforts among various regulatory frameworks [4] Group 4: Financial Sector Innovations - The plan outlines the development of five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which are essential for supporting national strategies and optimizing financial resource allocation [5] - Technology finance aims to create a robust support system for technological innovation, while green finance focuses on facilitating the transition to a low-carbon economy [5] - Inclusive finance seeks to provide targeted financial support to small and micro enterprises and rural sectors, contributing to common prosperity [5] Group 5: Capital Market Development - The plan emphasizes enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting direct financing through equity and bond markets [6] - It aims to shift the focus from financing-led to balanced investment and financing, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market [6] - The development of various financial products, including futures and asset securitization, will be prioritized to support the real economy [6] Group 6: Financial Institution Optimization - The plan proposes optimizing the financial institution system to ensure that various financial entities focus on their core businesses and improve governance [7] - It highlights the importance of small and medium-sized financial institutions and encourages policies to support their development [7] - Large financial institutions are urged to enhance their global competitiveness and adapt to international markets [7] Group 7: Financial Regulation and Risk Management - The plan calls for strengthening financial regulation and enhancing collaboration between central and local regulatory bodies to build a comprehensive risk prevention and resolution system [8] - It emphasizes the need for proactive risk monitoring and the application of regulatory technology to improve risk management capabilities [8] - The legal framework for financial regulation will be updated to address the challenges posed by digital finance and complex financial products [8] Group 8: Financial Infrastructure Development - The plan stresses the importance of building a secure and efficient financial infrastructure to support the stable operation of the financial system [9] - A robust financial infrastructure will enhance service delivery to the modern industrial system and improve China's influence in global financial governance [9] Group 9: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The plan outlines a strategy for deepening financial openness, transitioning from market access to institutional openness [10] - It aims to create a comprehensive open ecosystem that includes the development of the Shanghai International Financial Center and the promotion of digital currency [10] - The plan emphasizes the need to balance openness with security, using macro-prudential management and regulatory measures to mitigate risks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the key points from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related documents, highlighting economic growth, technological advancement, and the importance of domestic demand and income growth. Group 1: "15th Five-Year Plan" Key Information - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [3][4] - Specific industries are identified for consolidation and enhancement, including mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and emerging strategic industries like new energy and quantum technology [3][4] - The plan emphasizes "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies across various sectors [3] - Domestic demand is prioritized with a focus on increasing public service spending and government investment in livelihood projects [3] - New approaches to resident income include promoting collective wage negotiations and improving minimum wage adjustment mechanisms [3] Group 2: Auxiliary Documents Key Information - The "Guidance Questions" document outlines a target for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plans [5][26] - Financial and capital market reforms are highlighted, including the restructuring of small financial institutions and the completion of financial legislation [5][6] - The real estate sector is addressed with measures to promote the sale of existing homes and regulate pre-sale fund supervision [7] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to consolidate and avoid redundant construction, while also improving the wage determination mechanism [7] Group 3: Recent Noteworthy Events - The recent meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents resulted in agreements to adjust tariffs and suspend certain export controls, which may impact trade dynamics [8][24] - The introduction of new financial regulations aims to enhance the performance of investment funds and restrict certain financial practices [9][29] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported on local government debt limits and the allocation of funds to support various projects, emphasizing investment in digital economy and infrastructure [9][22]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising within 0.5 basis points, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.11% at 116.51, while the 10-year main contract slightly increased by 0.01% to 108.68 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds rose slightly, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.866% [2]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's 182-day financial bond had a winning bid rate of 1.5074%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 3.6 [3]. - The 3-year fixed-rate bond from the same bank had a winning bid rate of 1.6385%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 2.95 [3]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 3.46 basis points to 3.574% [4]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 1.665% [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 783 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates collectively declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.316% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the "asset shortage" logic may weaken next year, with fundamental factors regaining importance, indicating a market characterized by "low rates + high volatility" [7]. - CITIC Securities anticipates limited upward risk for bond yields, emphasizing the necessity of creating a suitable interest rate environment to support fiscal supply [8].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 355.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 31, with a net injection of 187.1 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 168 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - The total net injection for the week was 900.8 billion yuan, indicating a continued effort to maintain liquidity in the market [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains comfortable under the central bank's continuous net injection, with overnight repurchase rates stabilizing around 1.31% [3] - The central bank's actions, including reverse repos and MLF, have effectively smoothed out liquidity fluctuations for the month, with expectations of continued ample liquidity post-month-end [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is approximately 1.63%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [5] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The main contracts for government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year contract up by 0.42% and the 10-year contract up by 0.04%, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts saw slight declines [9] Group 5: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49, down from 49.8, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [10] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, reflecting a slight expansion in the services sector [10] Group 6: Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a robust monetary policy framework and improved transmission mechanisms for interest rates, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of policy rates [10] - The Ministry of Finance highlighted plans to manage local government debt more effectively and optimize government investment strategies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11]

Group 1: Economic and Financial Strategy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining systematic planning and strategic deployment for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year period [1] - The article emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] Group 2: Financial System Improvement - The article by Wang Jiang highlights seven key tasks for building a strong financial nation, including improving the central bank system and promoting healthy capital market development [2][3] - It stresses the need for financial institutions to focus on their main businesses and enhance governance, while also supporting state-owned financial institutions in serving the real economy [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development [6][7] - The article outlines the importance of adjusting monetary policy to match economic growth and price stability, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to short-term and long-term economic goals [7][8] Group 4: International Financial Center Development - The article discusses the continuous development of various financial markets in Shanghai to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [4][5] - It calls for strengthening the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi and expanding institutional openness in the financial sector [4] Group 5: Trade and Investment Expansion - The article by Wang Wentao emphasizes the significance of expanding high-level opening-up, including promoting trade innovation and enhancing the quality of foreign trade [10][11] - It outlines tasks such as increasing market access in service sectors and optimizing the free trade zone strategy to boost innovation and development [11][12] Group 6: Real Estate Market Development - The article by Ni Hong focuses on promoting sustainable and healthy development in the real estate market through reforms in development, financing, and sales systems [14][15] - It highlights the need for a multi-level housing security system and emphasizes the importance of local governments in adjusting real estate policies based on specific city conditions [15][16]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the strategic goal of accelerating the construction of a financial power, marking a significant shift from the previous focus on establishing a modern financial system to enhancing quality and global competitiveness [1][3][4] - The plan outlines six core components of a financial power, including a strong currency, a robust central bank, powerful financial institutions, an international financial center, effective financial regulation, and a skilled financial talent pool [1][2] Financial Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a systematic upgrade of the central bank's framework, focusing on improving the monetary policy system and enhancing macro-prudential management [9][10] - Financial institutions are encouraged to specialize in their core functions and improve governance to reduce risks associated with homogeneous competition [19] Capital Market Reforms - The plan aims to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, promoting direct financing through equity and bond markets while steadily developing futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [14][15] - The focus is on addressing the challenges of investment and financing coordination, which is crucial for fostering innovation and economic growth [14][15] Risk Management and Regulation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a systematic approach to risk prevention and resolution, particularly in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [17][18] - Strengthening the collaboration between central and local regulatory bodies is highlighted as essential for effective risk management [16][18] International Financial Center Development - The plan underscores the importance of establishing strong international financial centers, with Shanghai and Hong Kong being focal points for enhancing China's global financial influence [7][8] - The shift from being a participant to a leader in global financial governance is a key objective, aiming to shape international economic order [7] Financial Support for Real Economy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the development of five key financial areas: technology finance, inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, and digital finance, aligning with national strategic goals [12][13] - These initiatives are designed to provide targeted financial support to meet the needs of the real economy and promote sustainable development [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to achieve the dual goals of maintaining currency stability and financial stability [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy System - The aim is to continuously improve the monetary policy system to dynamically achieve an optimal combination of currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and balance of international payments [2] - Key tasks include optimizing the basic currency issuance mechanism, improving market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms, and enhancing the structural monetary policy tool system [2][3] - The focus is on maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy while optimizing monetary policy intermediate variables [2] Group 2: Macro-Prudential Management System - The comprehensive macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro, counter-cyclical, and contagion perspective [4] - Key tasks include establishing a monitoring, assessment, early warning, and prevention mechanism for systemic financial risks, as well as a financial stability guarantee system [4][5] - Emphasis is placed on strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, focusing on key areas such as systemically important financial institutions and cross-border capital flows [4][6] Group 3: Risk Prevention Measures - Measures are proposed to prevent significant fluctuations in key sectors and industries that could impact high-quality economic and financial development [5] - The approach includes enhancing the loss absorption capacity of key financial institutions and implementing timely counter-cyclical regulatory measures for cross-border capital flows [5][6] - The goal is to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market and to balance risk prevention with innovation in internet finance [6]