宏观经济治理
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理论视野丨为什么五年规划能发挥这么大作用
Zhong Yang Ji Wei Guo Jia Jian Wei Wang Zhan· 2025-08-21 01:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of China's five-year plans in guiding long-term development and strategic planning, highlighting their role as a political advantage and a key experience in governance [2][3]. Group 1: Mechanism of Five-Year Plans - The five-year plans facilitate orderly development and path optimization through phased arrangements, balancing short-term adjustments with long-term visions [3]. - The plans are closely integrated with the socialist market economy, reflecting continuous updates in planning concepts that guide development paths [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Guidance and Goal Orientation - The construction of an indicator system within the plans provides clear goal orientation, translating macro objectives into measurable and accountable metrics [6]. - The arrangement of development tasks within the plans offers strategic guidance across various sectors, with recent plans introducing new themes and content based on evolving circumstances [7]. Group 3: Resource Allocation and Implementation - The plans actively guide resource allocation through clearly defined major initiatives, which serve as a roadmap for investment and operational decisions [8][9]. - Major engineering projects outlined in the plans ensure effective implementation, with detailed arrangements for construction scale and output [10]. Group 4: Democratic Centralization and Consensus - The planning process incorporates public input, reflecting a blend of top-down design and grassroots consultation, enhancing the quality of the plans [11]. - The planning system ensures alignment from top to bottom, with a structured framework that facilitates the execution of national development tasks [12].
应对低利率:机遇与挑战 | 新刊亮相
清华金融评论· 2025-08-08 08:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by the ongoing trend of low interest rates in China, emphasizing the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance capabilities [3][10][11]. Summary by Sections Low Interest Rate Environment - China's interest rates have been declining due to multiple domestic and international factors, including structural issues like technological stagnation and demographic changes, as well as cyclical factors such as output and inflation gaps [3][10]. - The current low interest rate trend is expected to persist for a considerable period, influenced by both structural and cyclical factors, alongside a global trend of declining interest rates [10][11]. Policy Recommendations - It is essential to implement extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment policies, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, drawing lessons from the macroeconomic policies of developed countries post-2008 financial crisis [5][9]. - The relationship between fiscal and monetary policies should be one of mutual support rather than conflict, enhancing policy coordination to improve macroeconomic governance [9][11]. Financial Sector Adaptation - Financial institutions must adapt to the changing economic landscape characterized by low interest rates, which affects the behavior of economic entities, leading to reduced credit demand and a shift towards low-risk assets [6][10]. - There is a need for financial institutions to provide better financial products and services to meet societal financial demands while guiding financial needs effectively [6][11]. Focus Areas for Financial Reform - The article highlights the importance of focusing on five key areas of financial reform: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support high-quality economic development [7][12]. - Technological advancement is crucial for improving overall productivity and asset returns, necessitating a collaborative approach among different types of financial institutions to provide comprehensive financial services to technology enterprises and innovative projects [7][12]. Risk Management and Structural Reform - Addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates requires structural reforms to prevent financial risks, emphasizing the need for a robust financial supply-side structural reform [12]. - The article suggests that the financial sector should learn from international experiences to enhance its resilience and adaptability in the face of ongoing interest rate changes [12].
从一粒小麦感受中国经济新脉动(人民时评) ——半年报里看信心③
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-07-30 22:03
Group 1 - Digital technology is transforming the real economy comprehensively, enhancing productivity and creating new productive forces [1][3] - The summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin in 2025, marking the second-highest yield in history, with an increase of 0.1 kg per mu compared to the previous year [1] - The effective governance and macroeconomic management have improved significantly, allowing for proactive risk management and enhanced resilience against uncertainties [2][4] Group 2 - The integration of digital technology and traditional agriculture is driving an efficiency revolution, reducing grain storage loss rates from 5% to below 1% [3] - The shift from single staple food to high-value industrial elements is evident, with strong gluten wheat from Shandong entering the high-end baking market and straw from Anhui being utilized in biomass energy and feed processing [4] - The establishment of a "whole chain economy" model, centered on domestic circulation, is a vital source of economic vitality, supporting downstream food processing and retail sectors [4]
《清华金融评论》封面专题:“十四五”回顾与“十五五”前瞻
清华金融评论· 2025-07-09 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and anticipates the strategic opportunities and challenges of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the need for coordinated policies to achieve economic and social progress [3][5][23]. Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP consistently surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected reach of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025. The average economic growth rate over the first four years was 5.5%, contributing about 30% to global economic growth [3][4][16][12]. Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has become the main driver of economic growth, with an average contribution rate of 86.4% from 2021 to 2024. Final consumption's contribution to economic growth averaged 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][16]. Innovation and Technology - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritized innovation, with R&D investment reaching a new high, increasing nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan." The R&D intensity rose to 2.68%, approaching the OECD average [17]. Social Welfare - The economic and technological advancements have translated into improved public welfare, with significant enhancements in education, healthcare, and social security systems. The coverage rates for basic pension and medical insurance exceeded 95% [18]. Governance and Reform - The article highlights improvements in governance efficiency, with a better business environment and increased organizational capacity. The number of private enterprises grew by over 40% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [19]. Green Development - The concept of green development has gained traction, with significant achievements in afforestation, pollution control, and clean energy utilization. The forest coverage rate increased to over 25%, and the proportion of clean energy in electricity generation is expected to rise [20]. Safety and Security - The article emphasizes the strengthening of food, energy, and national security during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of over 10 billion mu of high-standard farmland and the largest power infrastructure system globally [21]. Global Responsibility - China has taken active steps in global green development and international cooperation, contributing to the "Belt and Road" initiative and reducing carbon emissions significantly [22].
从更加积极的财政政策看宏观经济治理演进
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-23 22:09
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in China, reflecting an evolution in macroeconomic governance and aiming to ensure stable economic operation amidst complex domestic and international conditions [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Strength - The more proactive fiscal policy is characterized by greater policy intensity, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year [2]. - The national general public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.4% compared to the previous year [2]. Policy Timing and Proactivity - The more proactive fiscal policy requires timely implementation, with a focus on early action to enhance policy effectiveness [2]. - The government aims to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating a more active approach in policy tools and intensity [2]. Focus on National Conditions - The fiscal deficit rate of around 4% is deemed a scientific judgment based on China's economic development stage, allowing for greater operational space in macroeconomic regulation [3]. - Compared to Western countries, China's government debt risk is manageable, with significant room for borrowing and a substantial amount of quality assets backing the debt [3]. Policy Effectiveness - The proactive fiscal policy aims not only to address short-term economic fluctuations but also to promote long-term high-quality economic development [4]. - The policy emphasizes targeted support for improving people's livelihoods, boosting consumption, and enhancing fiscal support for key sectors [4][7]. Systematic Integration - The article highlights the importance of coordinating fiscal policy with other areas such as monetary policy, employment, and trade to enhance overall policy effectiveness [5]. - A combination of policies is necessary to ensure a cohesive approach to macroeconomic management [5]. Areas of Focus for Implementation - The fiscal policy will focus on utilizing fiscal space effectively, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to guide social expectations, and expanding government debt to support growth and structural adjustments [6]. - The government plans to allocate 44 billion yuan in new local government special debt limits to support key areas [6]. Structural Optimization - The fiscal expenditure structure will be optimized to enhance support for major national strategic tasks, focusing on improving livelihoods and promoting domestic demand [7]. - The government aims to ensure sustainable fiscal operations while addressing risks in key areas [7]. Policy Coordination - There is a need for better coordination between national strategic planning and related policies to guide economic and social development effectively [8]. - The article stresses the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policies to create a synergistic effect that supports effective demand growth [8].
“十五五”前瞻——习近平对“十五五”规划编制工作作出重要指示 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-05-19 10:30
Core Viewpoint - The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing China's modernization and fulfilling the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [4]. Group 1: Planning and Decision-Making - Emphasis on scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making processes in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The need for top-level design and public consultation to gather diverse opinions and experiences from the populace [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transitional phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, facing both strategic opportunities and risks [7][8]. - Key economic issues to consider during planning include growth, demand, and supply [7]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The importance of high-quality development and the need to upgrade supply, demand, and efficiency structures to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [8][9]. - The role of technological innovation and new industries, such as AI and biotechnology, in driving future growth [8]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is highlighted as a necessary requirement for modernization, aiming to enhance planning, construction, and governance at both urban and rural levels [9]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Governance - The necessity for improved macroeconomic governance and policy consistency in response to changing external conditions and internal economic demands [11][12]. - The ongoing evolution of fiscal policy since 2008, with a focus on optimizing its effectiveness for growth and risk management [12]. Group 6: Trust Industry Development - The trust industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development paths and align its strategies with the broader goals of China's modernization [13].
把握宏观经济治理大脉络 ——对话中国社会科学院金融研究所所长张晓晶
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-13 21:49
Group 1 - The overall economic performance in the first quarter showed a growth rate of 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive trend despite complex internal and external environments [2][3][4] - Key highlights include rapid growth in consumption, particularly in service and development-oriented consumption, with significant contributions from sectors like tourism and digital services [2][3] - Investment in high-tech industries has also seen double-digit growth, reflecting a shift in economic structure and the emergence of new productive forces [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies in September 2022 played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with ongoing macro policy adjustments signaling a commitment to economic stability [4][5] - The government has set a consumer price index (CPI) target of around 2% for the year, down from 3%, to enhance the credibility and operability of macroeconomic policies [6][7] - The government aims to balance active fiscal policies with debt risk management, leveraging its relatively healthy balance sheet to stimulate domestic demand [7][8] Group 3 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" includes 30 specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending capacity, focusing on various sectors including tourism and entertainment [9][10] - The emphasis on high-quality supply in services, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, is crucial for creating effective demand and promoting consumption [11][12] - The government is encouraged to adopt a dynamic approach to policy adjustments, ensuring timely and effective responses to economic conditions [12][13] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market dynamics is evolving, with a focus on enhancing government roles in facilitating market integration and providing public goods [18][19] - The balance between total supply and demand is critical, with a current emphasis on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption, as a primary driver of economic growth [20][21] - The new "three drivers" of economic growth focus on residents, enterprises, and government, highlighting the importance of consumer spending, private investment, and proactive government policies [22][23]
事关“十五五”规划制定!国家发展规划法草案公开征求意见
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-07 07:45
Core Points - The draft of the National Development Planning Law aims to establish a legal framework for the formulation and implementation of national development plans, enhancing the governance system and promoting high-quality development [1][2][3] - The law will formalize existing practices in the planning process, ensuring that all parties involved have clear rights and responsibilities [2][3] - The draft outlines the necessary components of national development plans, including environmental analysis, guiding principles, main objectives, key tasks, major policies, and implementation guarantees [3][4] Group 1: Legislative Intent - The legislation is intended to transition from policy-driven to law-driven planning, enhancing the authority, standardization, and transmission of development plans [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of public participation and expert consultation in the planning process [3][4] - The law aims to improve the scientific, democratic, and legal aspects of planning, thereby better guiding resource allocation and market behavior [3][6] Group 2: Implementation and Coordination - The draft specifies the need for coordination between annual plans and various levels of planning to ensure consistency in macroeconomic policies [5][6] - It establishes a dynamic monitoring and evaluation system for the implementation of national development plans [5][6] - The law mandates that all regional and departmental policies align with the national development plan's objectives and directions [7][8] Group 3: Accountability and Enforcement - The draft includes accountability measures for violations during the planning and implementation processes, enhancing the rigidity of execution [8] - It stipulates that the implementation of national development plans will be a key reference for assessing the performance of local governments and departments [7][8] - The law aims to address issues of insufficient coordination and scientific planning, thereby reinforcing the strategic and authoritative nature of development plans [6][7]
以政策效力激发更大推动力(评论员观察)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-04-23 22:07
Group 1 - China's economy has shown a stable and positive start in 2025, attributed to collective efforts, strong confidence, and effective policies [1][3] - The macroeconomic governance system in China has improved, with a well-stocked policy toolbox that enhances the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of macro-control [1][3] - The first humanoid robot half-marathon was successfully held in Beijing, showcasing advancements in embodied intelligence supported by government policies [1][2] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, China's high-tech industry sales revenue increased by 13.4%, while the new energy vehicle manufacturing sector saw an 18.6% rise, indicating strong innovation-driven growth [2] - The small and medium-sized enterprise development index rose to 89.5 in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operational conditions for businesses [2] - Consumer goods retail sales in categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies grew over 20% in Q1 2025, driven by policies promoting consumption [3] Group 3 - The government is focusing on policy implementation to boost consumer confidence and support businesses, addressing issues like delayed payments and financing difficulties [4] - External pressures, such as tariffs, pose challenges to economic stability, but China is prepared to handle uncertainties with proactive macro policies [4] - The emphasis on supply-side structural reforms aims to stimulate domestic economic vitality and enhance overall economic resilience [4]
中办、国办发布!防止政府对价格形成不当干预
证券时报· 2025-04-02 08:51
Overall Requirements - The document emphasizes the importance of price governance as a key aspect of macroeconomic management, aiming to deepen price reform and improve the price governance mechanism in China [2]. Group 1: Market Price Formation Mechanism - The document advocates for the market-oriented reform of electricity pricing, including the establishment of a market-based pricing mechanism for electricity, natural gas, and coal [3][4]. - It highlights the need to create a competitive market environment by abolishing policies that hinder fair competition and ensuring fair access to essential services like electricity and gas [4]. - The document calls for the development of trading markets for key commodities, including oil, gas, and coal, to enhance price formation [3]. Group 2: Price Guidance Mechanism - The document proposes improving agricultural price policies to ensure stable and safe supply of essential food products, including minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat [5]. - It emphasizes the need for energy price policies that support green and low-carbon transitions, including the establishment of pricing mechanisms for natural gas and renewable energy [5]. - The document suggests creating a pricing policy for public data to facilitate the development of the digital economy [7]. Group 3: Price Regulation Mechanism - The document stresses the importance of regulating overall price levels by considering supply and demand dynamics, economic growth, and external influences [8]. - It outlines the need for a long-term mechanism to stabilize prices of essential goods, focusing on production capacity and market balance [8]. - The document highlights the importance of emergency measures to manage price fluctuations for critical commodities [9]. Group 4: Market Price Supervision Mechanism - The document calls for the establishment of a comprehensive market price behavior regulation system to maintain order and prevent unfair competition [10]. - It emphasizes the need for enhanced price supervision and inspection, particularly in sectors with high public interest [10]. - The document advocates for a collaborative governance model involving industry self-regulation, social oversight, and government regulation [10]. Group 5: Capacity Building for Price Governance - The document highlights the need to improve price monitoring and early warning systems to enhance responsiveness to market changes [11]. - It calls for strengthening cost auditing and investigation to ensure effective cost control and transparency [11]. - The document emphasizes the importance of updating legal frameworks related to price governance to adapt to new challenges [11]. Group 6: Implementation and Leadership - The document stresses the necessity of strong leadership from the Communist Party in implementing price governance measures [12]. - It calls for local governments and departments to prioritize price governance and adapt policies to local conditions [12].