Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in May 2025 are under short-term pressure due to weak downstream construction activity and the earlier high growth in sales that has overstated future demand [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.7% [1] - In May 2025, excavator sales (including exports) totaled 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while domestic sales were 8,392 units, showing a decline of 1.5% [1] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.9% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the continuous growth in the replacement of construction machinery, which is expected to support future excavator sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [2] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and increase local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and subsequently boost equipment demand [3] Group 3: Export Trends - In the first five months of 2025, excavator exports reached 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with May exports at 9,810 units, up 5.4% [4] - The company sees opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for construction machinery exports, despite challenges such as the changing geopolitical landscape and uncertainties related to US-China tariffs [4] Group 4: Electrification Trends - In the first five months of 2025, electric loader sales surged to 10,904 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 207.7%, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points [5] - The government emphasizes green transformation and the promotion of electric machinery, which is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the construction machinery sector, enhancing revenue and profits for manufacturers [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Yingliu Technology [13]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.93% over the past week, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.88% [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 7.29%, ranking 6th among the 31 primary industry categories, contrasting with a 1.55% decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [17]. - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to achieve commercial viability, with significant advancements in technology and training [27]. - The construction machinery sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations in operating rates, but the long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand remains intact [28]. - The gas turbine industry is seeing an upward trend in demand, with domestic companies like Yingliu Technology benefiting from increased orders [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Yingliu Technology [13]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 0.93% last week, while the year-to-date performance shows a 7.29% increase [3][17]. 3. Core Insights Update - The report notes that the machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with specific segments like laser equipment and robotics showing strong performance [26]. 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5, indicating a slight improvement but still in a contraction zone [29]. 4.2 Construction Machinery - Excavator sales in April reached 22,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [36]. 4.3 Railway Equipment - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, indicating a recovery in demand [45]. 4.4 Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.43 in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.32% [47]. 4.5 Oilfield Equipment - Brent crude oil prices are fluctuating around $65 per barrel, with ongoing geopolitical factors influencing the market [49]. 4.6 Industrial Gases - Liquid nitrogen prices are on the rise, indicating a potential recovery in gas prices [55]. 5. Industry Important Developments - The report mentions significant contracts and technological advancements in the general machinery sector, highlighting the internationalization of companies like Xiangdian [57][58].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by growth in sales, internationalization, and electrification trends, supported by favorable policies from the government [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Performance - The engineering machinery industry in China is showing a growth trend, with significant support from recent government policies [1] - In Q1 2025, listed companies in the engineering machinery sector reported revenue of 915.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 88.8 billion yuan, up 33% [1] - The overall gross margin for the engineering machinery sector was 25.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: International Trade and Market Expansion - From January to April 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade amounted to 18.947 billion USD, an increase of 8.51% year-on-year, with exports reaching 18.07 billion USD, up 9.01% [2] - XCMG Group aims to double its scale by 2030, with international revenue expected to account for over 60% [2] - The demand for Chinese engineering machinery is increasing in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [3] Group 3: Electrification Trends - The sales of electric loaders in China reached 8,139 units from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 254.8%, with an electrification rate of 19.3% [2] - The electrification of engineering machinery is seen as a key development direction, with domestic manufacturers leveraging this trend to enhance revenue and profits [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is supported by favorable government policies and a recovering demand for infrastructure, ensuring medium-term demand stability [7] - The trend towards electrification in engineering machinery is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached CNY 355.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was CNY 96.13 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was CNY 29.77 billion, up 16.9% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit of CNY 9.72 billion, a 30.2% increase [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit margin improved to 8.7% in 2024, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [6] - The domestic sales of excavators during this period were 49,109 units, marking a 31.9% increase [6] Export Performance - In the same period, excavator exports totaled 34,405 units, reflecting a 9.0% year-on-year growth [8] - The report highlights opportunities for growth in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East markets [8] Electrification and Green Transition - Electric loader sales surged by 254.8% in Q1 2025, with an electrification rate of 19.3%, up 14.3 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The government is promoting a green transition, which is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the engineering machinery sector [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key players such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is benefiting from cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and product structure optimization, leading to a recovery in profitability [5] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue its recovery due to strong government support and infrastructure investment [7] - The trend towards electrification in the engineering machinery sector is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached 355.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 96.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 29.77 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing a 30.2% increase to 9.72 billion yuan [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 8.7% [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 25.1%, but the net margin rose to 10.3% [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with domestic sales growing by 31.9% [6] - The report highlights a significant increase in electric loader sales, with a year-on-year growth of 254.8% in Q1 2025 [9] Government Support and Market Outlook - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects, which is expected to boost demand for engineering machinery [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in the international market for engineering machinery, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Core Insights - The fourth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition showcased 1,806 companies, including 35 of the world's top 50 construction machinery firms, highlighting the industry's focus on technological advancements and green transformation [1][5]. Industry Trends - The exhibition emphasized the shift towards intelligent and green manufacturing, with 75% of heavy machinery showcased being environmentally friendly and 80% of the exhibition space designed sustainably [2][3]. - Major companies like Zoomlion and SANY presented innovative products, including the world's largest 4,000-ton all-terrain crane and hydrogen-powered pump trucks, demonstrating the industry's technological leadership [2][6]. International Participation - The event attracted over 5,000 international buyers from more than 50 countries, indicating a strong global interest in Chinese construction machinery [5][6]. - The exhibition served as a platform for international cooperation, with representatives from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP seeking procurement opportunities [5][6]. Economic Impact - The construction machinery industry in Hunan province, particularly in Changsha, has maintained its position as a national leader in key performance indicators for 15 consecutive years, with a reported revenue of 34.16 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year [6][7]. - The local industry cluster has surpassed 200 billion yuan in total output value, exporting products to 180 countries and regions [7][8]. Collaborative Development - The exhibition facilitated collaboration among local manufacturers, with agreements totaling over 13 billion yuan focused on key areas like hydraulic systems and intelligent control [7][8]. - New standards for the export of used construction machinery were introduced, enhancing the alignment of local practices with international standards [7][8]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the high-quality development of China's construction machinery industry, driven by electrification and intelligent transformation [4][6]. - The industry is expected to maintain an annual export growth rate of over 10%, further globalizing the supply chain [8].

Group 1 - The fourth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition features 1,806 domestic and foreign enterprises, showcasing a strong trend towards electrification in the construction machinery industry, with 43% of SANY Group's exhibited products being electric and new energy [1] - SANY's fully electric unmanned excavator demonstrates a 40% efficiency improvement over traditional models, attracting interest from Middle Eastern and African markets [1] - The exhibition displays over 20,000 items, with 75% of heavy machinery products being environmentally friendly, significantly surpassing the previous year's figures [1] Group 2 - The pure electric construction machinery market is expected to reach a tipping point by 2025, with a projected penetration rate of 25% for major products, and China's market share in electric construction machinery could exceed 30% globally [2] - Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co., Ltd. invests over 15% of its annual revenue in R&D, focusing on innovative solutions for the electrification process in construction machinery [2] - Challenges in the electrification process include insufficient battery life and a lack of charging infrastructure, with various energy supply solutions being explored [2] Group 3 - The electrification trend in the construction machinery industry is irreversible, requiring collaboration among government, enterprises, and research institutions to drive technological innovation and establish a robust standard system for the electric industry [3]

孙成军介绍，整个厂房生产线已经进入高速运转状态，生产订单较2024年增加了150%左右。 数据显示，2025年1到4月，装载机主要制造企业共销售各类装载机42220台，同比增长16%。其中，国内销量23570台，同比增长27.8%；出口 量18650台，同比增长3.87%。 电动装载机渗透率不断提升 工程机械电动化加速 据了解，不少装载机生产企业的订单已经排产到三季度。为了按时交付，去上游供应商蹲点拿货成了常态。 央视网消息：随着全国多地重大工程项目进入"加速跑"阶段，工程机械行业也迎来传统开工及销售旺季。2025年情况如何？ 在浙江湖州一家装载机生产企业，生产部负责人孙成军正在紧张忙碌着。他介绍，2025年以来，市场需求十分旺盛，整个产线都在加班加点赶 交货。 在广西柳州一家装载机生产企业的电动无人装载机训练基地，一台电动装载机在操作人员的指挥下，迅速完成各种操作指令。 广西柳州某工程机械企业电动技术与产品研究院院长赵明介绍，截至目前，他们在全球销售了8000多台电动产品，超过60个国家和地区，已经 覆盖了传统工程机械产品95%以上的工况。 业内人士表示，未来，随着电池技术迭代和智能化升级，电动装载机有望进 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工程机械行业点评报告 4 月挖机出口表现亮眼，看好海外需求加速 推荐（维持） 复苏 风险提示：国内经济复苏趋缓；市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 邮箱：chenhongyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524100002 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 三一重工 | 19.72 | 1.02 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 19.25 | 15.46 | 12.30 | 2.19 | 强推 | | 恒立液压 | 76.10 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 3.09 | 35.52 | 29.69 | 24.62 | 5.73 | 强推 | | 中联重科 | 7.63 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.3 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 12.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, up 53.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in non-excavation machinery and overseas markets, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 51.43 billion yuan, 59.02 billion yuan, and 68.74 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.8%, and 16.5% [4][9]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profits for the same years are 5.03 billion yuan, 6.05 billion yuan, and 7.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.0%, 20.2%, and 20.1% [4][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.58 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.84 yuan, respectively [4][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 16 times [4][9]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in the domestic market, with domestic revenue of 5.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.59% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to 2024 [2][3]. - Overseas revenue reached 6.57 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, with overseas revenue accounting for 54.2% of total revenue, up 5.77 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas presence, having established over 30 new operational sites and 12 service parts warehouses in various countries, including the UK, Germany, and Turkey [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on digitalization and localization strategies to enhance its global footprint and mitigate trade friction risks [2][3].