Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and aviation sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][3]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) are reversing to positive influences. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily rising, and the current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery [4]. - The aviation sector is poised for significant improvement due to unprecedented constraints in aircraft supply and an aging global fleet. The report anticipates a golden era for airlines as passenger demand increases and operational efficiencies improve [4]. - The oil transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with VLCC rates increasing by 10% week-on-week, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report highlights a reversal of negative influences in the shipping sector, with the Clarksons second-hand ship price index breaking through previous highs. The current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, with potential for recovery to historical averages [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and China Shipbuilding Defense, with a focus on bulk oil tanker stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4]. Aviation Sector - The report notes that the aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with supply constraints expected to persist for the next 5-10 years. Airlines are expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and improved operational efficiencies, leading to significant profit growth [4]. - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the oil tanker market is experiencing a resurgence, with VLCC rates increasing significantly. The demand for oil transportation is expected to strengthen, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints [4]. - The report also notes that the market for smaller oil tankers is catching up, with rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers rising sharply [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the industry, emphasizing the importance of monitoring quarterly performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia [4]. Rail and Road Transport - The report highlights the resilience of rail freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected. The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts are worth attention [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" rating for the express delivery industry, marking it as the first rating issued [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August 2025, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 7.1% and social consumer retail sales at 3.4% [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages in express delivery continues, contributing to rapid growth in business volume [5][8]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.37 yuan in August 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.16%, although there was a slight month-on-month increase of 0.13% [5][16]. - The report anticipates a price recovery in the express delivery sector due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry [5][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Volume and Price - The express delivery industry maintains high growth, with business volume growth outpacing both online retail and overall retail sales [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages continues, with the average value of a single express package decreasing to 63.0 yuan, down 4.62% year-on-year [13][15]. - The competitive pricing environment has led to a decline in average revenue per package, but there are expectations for stabilization in pricing due to industry adjustments [5][16]. Company Volume and Price - In August 2025, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at +11.06%, Yunda at +8.72%, Shentong at +10.0%, and SF Express at +34.80%, with SF Express outperforming the industry average [20]. - The average revenue per package for these companies showed significant declines, particularly for SF Express at -15.32% year-on-year, indicating a substantial impact from changes in business structure [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for J&T Express [2][6] Core Insights - J&T Express continues to experience high growth in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in package volume driven by e-commerce penetration and company competitiveness [6][7] - The company has expanded its new market operations, achieving a 47.9% year-on-year growth in package volume for Q3 2025, supported by investments and partnerships with e-commerce platforms [6][7] - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to rising delivery prices in the express delivery industry, following a trend of price increases since August [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for J&T Express are as follows: - 2023: $8,849 million - 2024: $10,259 million - 2025E: $12,719 million - 2026E: $16,015 million - 2027E: $20,449 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 21.77% for 2023, 15.93% for 2024, and 23.97% for 2025E [3][7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: $368 million - 2026E: $592 million - 2027E: $853 million - Corresponding year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are 83.91% for 2025E, 60.77% for 2026E, and 43.94% for 2027E [3][7] Market Performance - As of October 14, 2025, J&T Express's closing price is HKD 9.61, with a market capitalization of HKD 862.75 billion [4][6] - The company has a market share of 32.8% in Southeast Asia, reflecting a 5.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][7]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [1][20][21] - Different shipping segments will experience varying degrees of impact, with oil and dry bulk sectors facing greater challenges compared to container shipping [1][20] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial chaos from the new policies, but overall, the impact on freight rates is expected to be limited [1][20] Group 2: Aviation Industry - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-National Day, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [2][33] - The average domestic ticket price is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase, suggesting a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the aviation market [2][34] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in profitability as the supply-demand gap narrows, with recommendations to invest in major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [2][34] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of express delivery volumes in China, indicating a shift towards more sustainable competition [2][43][44] - The profitability of express delivery companies is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal demand and the effects of the "anti-involution" measures [2][43][44] - Major express companies like SF Express and ZTO Express are expected to see significant growth in profitability in 2025, with projected earnings growth of 15-20% for SF Express [2][54] Group 4: Logistics Sector - The logistics company DeBang's revenue has shown double-digit growth, but profitability has been under pressure due to increased transportation costs [2][66][67] - The company is focusing on enhancing its service quality and optimizing its product structure to improve margins in the future [2][66][67]

Core Viewpoints - The transportation industry is experiencing a decline in passenger flight volumes following the National Day holiday, with overall and domestic flight volumes down by 0.6% week-on-week, but still above 2019 levels [1][3] - The implementation of reciprocal port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [2] Shipping Industry - The upcoming US port fee measures will take effect on October 14, prompting China to respond with special port fees for US vessels [2] - Different shipping segments will experience varying impacts, with container shipping likely facing the least disruption, while oil and dry bulk shipping will be more significantly affected [2] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial policy confusion, but major container shipping companies have committed to not raising prices to maintain competitiveness [2] - Oil shipping rates are expected to perform strongly in the short to medium term due to seasonal effects and recent geopolitical developments [2] Aviation Industry - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased post-holiday, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3] - The domestic aviation market is expected to continue improving in supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices likely stabilizing [3][4] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with most regions now participating in this trend [4] - The industry is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter due to reduced competition and better regulatory balance [4] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like SF Express and the Tongda system, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing policy changes [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see performance recovery due to the "anti-involution" policies, while the mutual port fees imposed by China and the U.S. are likely to drive shipping rates upward [1][2]. - The shipping industry is facing mixed impacts from the U.S. port fee measures, with over 40% of shipping capacity affected by U.S. fees, while the impact on Chinese shipping capacity is significantly lower [1][20]. - The aviation sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in ticket prices and profitability as the domestic passenger market continues to optimize supply and demand dynamics [2][34]. - The express delivery industry is witnessing a significant price increase across major production areas, with expectations for this trend to continue through the end of the year [2][43]. Shipping Sector Summary - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the U.S. is expected to create short-term price volatility, particularly affecting oil and dry bulk shipping more than container shipping [1][20]. - The oil shipping rates have shown a significant increase recently, with VLCC shipping rates rising due to concerns over port congestion and supply chain efficiency [1][20]. - The overall impact of the mutual port fees on shipping rates is limited, but initial chaos from policy implementation may lead to fluctuations [20][21]. Aviation Sector Summary - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-holiday, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels [2][33]. - The average domestic ticket price has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase [2][34]. - The aviation market is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [34]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of the express delivery volume in China, with expectations for sustained price stability [2][43]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the express delivery sector during the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand [2][43]. - Major express companies are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, with specific recommendations for companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [5][54]. Key Company Ratings and Predictions - COSCO Shipping Energy: Outperform, 2025E PE of 12.2 [6]. - SF Express: Outperform, 2025E PE of 17.4, with expected growth of 15-20% in 2026 [6][54]. - ZTO Express: Outperform, with a focus on long-term value and stable returns [5][54].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing significant changes aimed at breaking the previous low-price competition model, leading to improved financial performance for companies [1] - Several regions, including Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Shanghai, have initiated price increase actions as part of the anti-involution movement [1] - Positive effects from the price adjustments are beginning to manifest, with reports of increased revenue per package for express delivery outlets [1] Industry Performance - Recent performance reports from four listed express delivery companies indicate a general increase in revenue per package in August [1] - A franchisee in Yiwu noted that after a widespread price increase in their area, the outlet's revenue significantly improved, estimating an additional monthly income of approximately 1 to 1.5 million yuan if the revenue per package increases by 0.1 yuan [1] - The adjustments in pricing are expected to enhance cash flow and overall profitability for delivery outlets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in business volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August, indicating a shift away from price-driven growth strategies due to anti-involution policies [1][3][4] Group 1: Business Volume and Growth Trends - In August, the total business volume of express delivery companies reached 16.15 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1] - The growth rate of business volume has been gradually declining since March, influenced by a high base from the previous year and diminishing returns from price-driven strategies [1][3] - The growth in same-city delivery volume decreased by 0.8%, while inter-city delivery volume increased by 14.0% [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Pricing - SF Express continues to lead the industry with a growth rate exceeding 30% since April, while the growth rates of other major companies in the Tongda system have declined and are below the industry average [2] - In August, the average revenue per piece for Shentong, YTO, and Yunda increased by 4.6%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Shentong showed the best performance in August, with a slight decline in volume growth but an increase in revenue per piece by 0.09 yuan [2] Group 3: Impact of Anti-Involution Policies - Recent anti-involution policies have effectively curbed price-driven behaviors in the industry, leading to a more sustainable growth model focused on service quality rather than price competition [3][4] - The upward trend in average revenue per piece is expected to continue, although the rebound may not be as strong as in 2021 due to a less intense price war this year [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current anti-involution measures are expected to exceed market expectations, positively impacting company profitability and stock prices [5] - Companies to focus on include industry leaders with superior service quality such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, as well as Shentong Express, which has shown significant improvement in operational data [5]

2025 年 1-8 月快递行业跟踪点评 | | | | | | | 分析师：邓升亮（SAC | 执业证书编号： | S0340523050001） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 22 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： | dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 邮政局发布 2025 年 1-8 月快递发展报告与邮政行业运行情况。 交通运输行业 超配 （维持） 多省市启动快递反内卷，申通单票收入超预期 提升 点评： 8月快递价格止跌，件量增速放缓。据国家邮政局统计，2025年1-8月快递业务量累计完成1282.0亿件， 同比增长17.8%，其中8月快递业务量完成161.5亿件，同比增长12.3%。1-8月行业快递业务收入累计完 成9583.7亿元，同比增长9.2%，其中8月快递业务收入完成1189.6亿元，同比增长4.2%。8月行业平均 单票收入为7.37元，同比下降7.16%，环比提高0.01 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed positive growth in August 2025, with revenue reaching 1189.6 billion yuan and business volume at 161.5 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 4.2% and 12.3% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the industry generated a total revenue of 9583.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, while the total business volume reached 1282.0 billion pieces, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][2] Industry Data - In August 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue: SF Express at 186.57 billion yuan (+14.1%), Shentong at 44.34 billion yuan (+14.5%), Yunda at 41.19 billion yuan (+5.2%), and YTO Express at 53.90 billion yuan (+9.8%) [3] - Business volumes for the same companies were: SF Express at 14.06 billion pieces (+34.8%), Shentong at 21.47 billion pieces (+10.9%), Yunda at 21.45 billion pieces (+8.7%), and YTO Express at 25.11 billion pieces (+11.1%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were reported as follows: SF Express at 8.7%, Shentong at 13.3%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.5% [3] Company Performance - For the first eight months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 1464.69 billion yuan (+11.3%), Shentong at 334.14 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 329.70 billion yuan (+6.9%), and YTO Express at 433.33 billion yuan (+13.3%) [4] - Business volumes for these companies were: SF Express at 105.96 billion pieces (+27.9%), Shentong at 166.75 billion pieces (+18.2%), Yunda at 170.33 billion pieces (+14.3%), and YTO Express at 199.57 billion pieces (+20.2%) [4] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express at 8.3%, Shentong at 13.0%, Yunda at 13.3%, and YTO Express at 15.6% [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the increase in small and light packages, the rise of reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The industry is experiencing a shift from price wars to orderly competition, with recent price increases expected to improve profit margins for express companies [5] - The overall performance of the express delivery sector is anticipated to improve as price hikes become more widespread across the country [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demands emerging from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies such as YTO Express and Shentong are highlighted for their strong performance in both volume and price growth [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from a shift away from price wars, presenting long-term investment opportunities [6]