Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The price decline in the express delivery sector has narrowed, and the "anti-involution" efforts are stronger than expected, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The report remains optimistic about the performance growth of leading express delivery companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. The industry revenue was 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, with a single ticket revenue of 7.55 yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [7][36]. Company Performance - SF Express showed remarkable growth with a business volume increase of 31.81% year-on-year in September 2025. For the first nine months of 2025, its business volume grew by 28.3% [4][28]. Other major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong also reported year-on-year increases in business volume of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5%, respectively [4][28]. Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry continues to rise, with the CR8 index reaching 86.9 in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 1.7 compared to the previous year [24][4]. The market shares of leading companies such as SF Express, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong have shown a steady increase in Q3 2025 [29][4]. Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the price decline in the express delivery sector has slowed down, with the industry revenue growth outpacing the decline in single ticket revenue. The single ticket revenue for the industry decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting a moderation in price competition [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and the potential for valuation recovery in e-commerce logistics. It maintains an "Overweight" rating for SF Express and recommends monitoring regulatory efforts from the postal administration [4][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shentong Express (002468) [1][9][27] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 756 million yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 40.3% [1][9] - The report highlights the company's ability to release elasticity in a competitive market environment, indicating a potential turning point for the business [1][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company completed 18.86 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, maintaining a market share of 13.0% [2] - The average revenue per parcel for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.02 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, while in Q3 2025, it increased to 2.05 yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross profit per parcel for the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.116 yuan, down 0.005 yuan year-on-year, while in Q3 2025, it increased to 0.129 yuan, up 0.018 yuan year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts total revenue for 2025 to be 51.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 1.39 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.8% [5] - The report sets a target price of 24.5 yuan for the stock, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of 15.97 yuan [5][9]

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the express delivery industry in China, particularly addressing the issue of "involution" characterized by intense price competition among companies, especially in the context of cross-regional e-commerce deliveries [1][7]. Core Points and Arguments - **Price Competition**: The core issue of involution is attributed to severe price competition, particularly in delivery fees, which are influenced by local average wages and work difficulty rather than direct company decisions [7]. - **Regulatory Measures**: The State Post Bureau plans to continue promoting anti-involution measures by 2026, including precise regulation of high-volume provinces, training for express companies, and the establishment of laws and standards [1][9]. - **Reasons Against Involution**: The opposition to industry involution is based on four main reasons: ensuring social harmony, improving service quality, promoting high-quality corporate development, and achieving sustainable development goals [3]. - **Key Areas of Concern**: Six critical areas to address include data monopolization, price competition (both benign and malicious), exploitation of workers, malicious public opinion, tax evasion, and inadequate protection systems for workers [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Future Development Indicators**: Future indicators for high-quality development in the express delivery industry include formulating development plans, expanding market reach, enhancing service quality, fostering innovation, and building a strong brand reputation [10][11]. - **Diverse Development Paths**: Companies are encouraged to explore diverse development paths such as international expansion and services for the manufacturing sector, alongside cost reduction through automation [3][8]. - **Effective Anti-Involution Strategies**: Effective strategies include legislative measures, policy support, market monitoring, and public opinion guidance to create a balanced and sustainable industry environment [6][9]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in China is at a critical juncture where addressing involution through comprehensive regulatory frameworks, market strategies, and service improvements is essential for sustainable growth and worker protection [1][3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume, driven by the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the release of consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1][2]. Group 1: Business Volume and Trends - By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating a counter-cyclical growth trend [1]. - The small parcelization trend continues, with expectations for resilient growth in business volume in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, particularly in the central and western regions and rural areas [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Revenue - From January to August 2025, the average revenue per express delivery ticket was 7.48 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to the 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, suggesting a stabilization in pricing due to anti-involution policies [1]. - The anti-involution policies have spread nationwide, significantly improving the single-ticket revenue for companies and indicating a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery firms in the latter half of the year and next year [2]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The scale effect is diminishing under the trend of small parcelization, leading to a slowdown in the decline of core costs per ticket. The cost reduction potential for transportation and transfer is narrowing [1]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is expected to open up cost reduction opportunities in last-mile delivery, although new social security regulations may lead to a short-term increase in costs per ticket [1].

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected business volume of 128.2 billion pieces in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [2][9] - The trend of small parcelization continues, driven by consumer preferences for cost-effective products, leading to increased repurchase frequency and smaller package sizes [9][41] - The regulatory environment has led to a slowdown in price competition, with the average revenue per delivery in the express industry decreasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 7.48 yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a significant improvement from a 12.3% decline at the end of 2024 [3][13] Group 2 - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards value competition due to the implementation of new social security regulations, which are expected to increase operational costs in the short term but promote long-term industry transformation [4][72] - The concentration of market share among leading companies has increased, with the top six firms maintaining an 80% market share in 2025, indicating a trend of market differentiation among major players [20][26] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles is expected to reduce last-mile delivery costs significantly, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express investing heavily in this technology [70][65] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of e-commerce express delivery leaders, with a focus on companies like SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility [77][78] - The report highlights that the profitability of express delivery companies will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with potential for significant profit recovery in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [60][62] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the rise of new consumption models will continue to support steady growth in delivery volumes [41][77]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant recovery in performance due to a rise in single-package prices and an increase in business volume during the peak season, driven by the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Business Volume - In September, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 12.7%, with SF Express leading at 31.81% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the total express delivery volume reached 1,450.8 billion packages, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2]. - The business volume for major companies in September was as follows: YTO Express 2.627 billion packages, Shentong Express 2.187 billion packages, Yunda Express 2.110 billion packages, and SF Express 1.504 billion packages [2]. Group 2: Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to September shows YTO Express at 15.6%, Yunda Express at 13.2%, Shentong Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.3%, with SF Express gaining 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Pricing Situation - The express delivery industry experienced a significant month-on-month price increase of 2.4% in September, with an average price of 7.55 yuan per package, down 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - For major companies in September, the average prices were: YTO Express 2.21 yuan, Yunda Express 2.02 yuan, Shentong Express 2.12 yuan, and SF Express 13.87 yuan [4]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the average price for SF Express was 13.83 yuan, down 13.00% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry continues to show growth potential, with the "anti-involution" price increases proving effective, and attention should be paid to the upcoming peak season's volume and pricing dynamics [5]. - The expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce are expected to further enhance the penetration rate of online shopping, contributing to the growth of the express delivery sector [5].

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the trend of "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing the per-package revenue for companies and is expected to improve the profitability of e-commerce express delivery firms in the second half of this year and next year, with profitability elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of small-package delivery continues, with the industry expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume. By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating counter-cyclical growth [1] - The consumption potential in lower-tier markets, such as the central and western regions and rural areas, is being released, which is expected to contribute to resilient growth in industry business volume in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the express delivery industry's per-package revenue was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to a 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in price competition under the "anti-involution" regulation [1] - The upcoming peak season for e-commerce is anticipated to stabilize and repair express delivery prices in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The weakening of economies of scale is noted, with the core cost per package declining at a slower pace. As transportation and transfer costs have limited room for reduction, the introduction of unmanned vehicle technology is expected to lower the delivery costs at the final stage [2] - New social security regulations are expected to lead to a short-term increase in per-package costs, but in the long term, they may drive the industry towards a value competition transformation [2]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in companies such as China Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, highlighting a historical opportunity for the shipping sector due to a reversal of negative factors [23]. Core Views - The transportation industry index increased by 0.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.52 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the smallest decline at -1.28% [4][11]. - The report emphasizes that the shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as negative influences such as policies, exchange rates, and ship prices have shifted to positive impacts [23]. - The VLCC freight rates have stabilized around $80,000 per day, with potential upward adjustments in rental rates expected due to market dynamics [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The transportation index rose by 0.72%, while the shipping sector saw a decline of -1.28% [4][11]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China increased by 3.83%, and the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 7.11% [4]. 2. Sub-industry Insights - The report highlights that the shipping sector is at a historical low in terms of market value orders, with a potential recovery to historical averages of 1-3 times [23]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which may affect freight rates [24]. 3. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM dividend yield of 8.09% and Zhonggu Logistics with a yield of 10.88% [21][22]. 4. Market Trends - The report indicates that the shipping market is experiencing a shift with freight rates stabilizing and potential increases in rental rates, driven by supply and demand dynamics [23][24]. - The report also mentions that the dry bulk market is seeing fluctuations due to seasonal demand and geopolitical factors affecting trade [25][26].

Group 1: Logistics - The logistics industry is expected to undergo a paradigm shift towards high-quality development, driven by policy changes and the "anti-involution" movement, which aims to ensure the rights of delivery personnel and improve profitability [4][24][30] - The logistics sector is entering a new phase of overseas expansion, with companies like Jitu Express and Jiayou International transitioning from initial stages to more advanced operations, focusing on management and capacity exports [4][8][35] Group 2: Aviation - The aviation industry is poised for recovery, benefiting from a resurgence in business travel demand since September, leading to improved revenue and cost dynamics [9][51] - The supply side is tightening, with low aircraft deliveries expected in 2025 and high capacity utilization rates, indicating a potential for revenue and cost resonance in the industry [9][51] Group 3: Shipping - The shipping sector is influenced by both seasonal and non-seasonal factors, with a focus on oil transportation due to OPEC+ production adjustments and the expected positive impact of new projects in the dry bulk segment [10][20] - The container shipping market is facing tariff disruptions, but demand is anticipated to rise due to proposed measures from the 301 investigation, which may boost feeder vessel demand [10][20] Group 4: Highways - Highway companies are regaining attractiveness in terms of valuation and dividend yield, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend characteristics [11][20] - The widening gap between highway company dividend yields and ten-year government bond yields suggests a return to a high cost-performance ratio for these assets [11][20]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a growth in business volume and revenue, driven by a reduction in internal competition and an increase in pricing [1][2][4] Industry Summary - According to the National Postal Bureau's report, the express delivery business volume is expected to grow by approximately 12% year-on-year in September, while revenue is projected to increase by around 7% year-on-year [1][2] - The average revenue per package in September is estimated at 7.58 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [1][2] - The trend of reducing internal competition is leading to a continuous rise in express delivery prices across the country [2][4] Company Performance - YTO Express achieved a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with a revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, up 1.4% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%, with a revenue per package of 2.12 yuan, up 4.95% [1] - Yunda Express completed a business volume of 2.110 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%, with a revenue per package of 2.02 yuan, up 0.50% [1] Profitability Outlook - The third quarter is expected to show initial profit recovery for express delivery companies due to price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The industry is entering a new phase of reducing internal competition, with potential implications for pricing and profitability [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies with significant profit elasticity such as Shentong Express (002468.SZ) and YTO Express (600233.SH) are recommended for investment, along with J&T Express (01519) benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [6]