Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "anti-involution" phase, which is expected to alleviate short-term competitive pressures while ensuring healthy competition in the long term [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - From late 2019, leading companies initiated price competition to increase market share, leading to irrational price wars that pressured both performance and valuations in the express delivery sector [1]. - In April 2021, the State Post Bureau intervened to curb irrational price wars, which began to stabilize the market and improve profitability for leading companies by the end of 2021 [1]. - The introduction of policies to protect the rights of delivery personnel in June 2021 led to a collective price increase of 0.1 yuan per ticket by major e-commerce delivery companies, helping to alleviate cost pressures [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In 2025, the intensity of "anti-involution" efforts is expected to exceed expectations, with short-term competitive pressures easing and a focus on maintaining stable operations for grassroots outlets [2]. - The profitability of major express companies is projected to recover in the second half of 2025, contingent on the sustainability of price increases and regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [3]. - The net profit per ticket for major companies in 2024 is forecasted to decline, but a recovery is anticipated in the latter half of 2025 if price increases are maintained [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The regulatory strength of the State Post Bureau will play a crucial role in determining the sustainability of price increases and future profitability elasticity in the express delivery sector [3]. - Continuous regulatory efforts and policy guidance to protect the rights of delivery personnel are expected to enhance the potential for price increases and their sustainability [3].

快递行业正迎来又一波"反内卷"浪潮。继南方都市报报道广东快递开启新一波涨价后，南都N视频记者 留意到，近期，福建省、北京市、宝鸡市等多地快递协会发文，倡议当地快递企业联合抵制"内卷式"竞 争维护公平竞争市场秩序。 有分析指出，在高质量发展背景下，监管引导和托底效应可以有力制约行业单票价格进一步下行。 多地协会发出倡议规范价格，摒弃"0元寄件"噱头 为促进全体会员及相关企业实现长期稳健发展，多地协会进一步发出包括"坚守底线，坚决抵制非理性 式竞争"、"回归本源，着力提升核心竞争能力"、"强化自律，严格落实企业主体责任""协同共治，协同 共建行业健康生态"的四方面倡议。 8月以来，北京市、宝鸡市先后发布倡议，其中提到有关背景：当前，部分领域出现了恶性价格战、低 于成本倾销、强制摊派补贴、忽视质量安全、侵害劳动者权益等"内卷式"竞争现象，严重扰乱了公平竞 争的市场秩序，损害消费者合法权益，挤压企业合理利润空间，侵蚀了行业可持续发展的根基，阻碍了 整体经济的提质增效。 广东、浙江部分地区快递已开启新一波涨价 快递行业长期深陷"低价换量"的"内卷式"竞争，加上电商平台一段时间以来的低价逻辑深入产业各个链 条，传导到物流 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a price increase and volume increase ratio reaching 40% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the 34% and 32% seen in 2020 and 2021 respectively [5][1] - The government is implementing measures to combat "involution" in the industry, including price correction drafts and compliance guidelines from regulatory bodies [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The express delivery market is expected to grow by 16.3% in 2025, with future growth projected at 6%-9% over the next two to three years. Companies are expected to manage this growth without excessive price competition [1][15][16] - **Company Performance**: - **SF Express**: Maintains healthy growth with cost reductions due to volume increases, showing no signs of involution [7] - **Yunda**: Focused on stable development, with price increases slightly above industry levels [7] - **YTO Express**: Achieved increases in volume, revenue, and prices, indicating high-quality development [8] - **Shentong**: Experienced a smaller price drop than the industry average, with a volume increase above the average [8] - **Postal Express**: Underperformed compared to YTO and Shentong, with lower pricing [9] - **Franchisee Issues**: Franchisees are facing intense competition, with a significant portion of the revenue being retained by them, leading to price wars [10] Government Measures - The government has taken steps to address involution, including: - Emphasizing political and economic correctness in central meetings [6] - Implementing price correction drafts for the first time since 1998 [6] - Enforcing compliance guidelines for online trading platforms [6][17] Future Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The industry is expected to benefit from digitalization and automation, leading to cost reductions and improved efficiency [19][22] - **New Revenue Streams**: New business avenues such as cross-border delivery, factory delivery, and emergency logistics are anticipated to enhance industry revenue and profits [19][22] - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for five major companies in the industry is expected to reach 30 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to 50-60 billion by 2030 [21][22] Regional Insights - **Jinhua**: Experienced a price drop of 0.09 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a projected annual decrease of 0.13 to 0.14 yuan [11] - **Linyi**: Saw a price reduction of 0.15 yuan, with an expected total decrease of 0.22 to 0.23 yuan for the year [12] - **Jieyang**: Noted significant price competition, with a drop of 0.37 yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - **Baoding**: Experienced a price drop of 0.76 yuan, with an annual forecast of around 1 yuan [14] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is navigating a complex landscape of price competition, regulatory scrutiny, and technological advancements. The focus on maintaining healthy competition and exploring new revenue streams is expected to drive growth and profitability in the coming years.

华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：广东省快递涨价落地，底价整体上调0.4元/票。 根据南方都市报，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。各大 快递公司已开始落地政策，"通达系"于8月5日起开始涨价，尤其0.1kg的特价件，各家提升 幅度在0.4元~0.5元区间，每增加0.1kg价格提高0.1元/kg；并设置15天锁盘期，避免其间互抢 客户。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）广东省快递涨价落地，底价整体上调0.4元/票。根据南方都市报，8月4日起，广东省 快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。各大快递公司已开始落地政策，"通达 系"于8月5日起开始涨价，尤其0.1kg的特价件，各家提升幅度在0.4元~0.5元区间，每增加 0.1kg价格提高0.1元/kg；并设置15天锁盘期，避免其间互抢客户。根据国家邮政局数据， 2025H1，广东省快递业务量234.3亿件，占全国快递业务量比重达到24.5%，排名第一，广 东省快递涨价幅度较高，标志本轮快递"反内卷"已有实质落地，后续重点关注快递涨价向全 国其他地区推进。 2）快递无人车投运持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly highlighting the express delivery sector and shipping companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price increases, with significant price adjustments observed, particularly in Guangdong, which may spread to other regions. Three scenarios are proposed for this new phase: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and substantial dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions [3]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing robust profitability, with Yangtze River Shipbuilding reporting a gross margin of 35% and a net margin of 32.5% for the first half of 2025, prompting recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry [3]. - Recent geopolitical pressures have led to a decline in oil exports from Iran and Russia to India, which may increase compliance demand and VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) demand as a substitute for smaller tankers. Iran's oil exports have dropped to around 1.2 million barrels per day recently [3]. - VLCC freight rates have surged by 52% week-on-week, reaching $34,679 per day, indicating a potential end to the seasonal downturn in the market [3]. - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with national railway freight at 77.69 million tons and highway truck traffic at 52.59 million vehicles for the week of July 28 to August 3 [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector has seen a price increase of 4.34%, outperforming other sub-sectors [4][5]. - Companies recommended include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - The report notes a significant increase in VLCC rates, with a 9.34% rise in the crude oil tanker index [4]. - Recommendations include China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry due to strong performance in the shipbuilding sector [3]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy in civil aviation may optimize industry competition, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The report indicates steady growth in railway and highway freight volumes, with a focus on high-dividend investment opportunities in the highway sector [3]. - The establishment of a new railway company under the China National Railway Group is noted as a positive development [3]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a dividend yield of 8.46% and Zhonggu Logistics at 7.53% [3][21].

快递业长期深陷 "以价换量" 的内卷式竞争，是时候按下暂停键了。 业内人士表示，价格战没有真正的赢家，仅仅以价换量，显然是行不通了。快递企业需要在保持竞争力 的同时，寻找更为可持续的发展策略。 赵小敏也指出，长远来看这对头部快递企业更有利，"那些不太紧密涉足价格战的企业，腾挪空间更大 ——它们的解决方案能力强，技术研发投入持续，末端相对稳定，融资手段也更便利。" 有消息显示，8月5日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上，基层网点派费增加 0.1元/票。省内各快递企业经品牌总部同意，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收。8月7日，记者向多位业 内人士求证后确认，"该消息属实，快递确实涨价了。"广州一家加盟制快递企业的网店老板告诉记者， 目前该政策5日已经在实施，"没办法，上个月最低八毛多的单子也接了，一直亏着钱做，现在这样起码 能收支平衡了。"值得注意的是，从行业来看，一票成本不能低于 1.4 元，一般是针对有大量寄快递需 求的电商客户的，他们才有这个优惠，这和普通消费者寄快递不同。 专家则表示，该举措对电商快递的效果比较明显，价格上调的同时，但需注意服务质量有没有提升。 快递业此前陷入低价 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the recent "anti-involution" policies and their impact on pricing and competition in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Recent data indicates that express delivery prices in Yiwu and Guangdong have increased, with Yiwu's 0.3 kg regular item price rising by approximately 0.05 CNY compared to June, and Guangdong's 0.1 kg special item price increasing by 0.05 to 0.10 CNY [1][3]. - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau has held meetings to address the issue of cutthroat competition, urging companies to stabilize their networks. Guangdong's drug administration has mandated price increases starting August 1, aligning with Yiwu's standards [2][3]. - **Historical Policy Review**: The effectiveness of past anti-involution policies is reviewed, noting that while the 2021 policies successfully raised industry price levels, the 2023 and 2024 price increases have only provided temporary support due to previous intense competition and cost pressures during the pandemic [1][5][6]. - **Profitability Pressure**: The current price competition is intensifying, with special pricing policies lowering average prices. Although headquarters are gaining more volume, this has led to reduced delivery fees for outlets, increasing operational pressure on both headquarters and franchisees, resulting in a decline in per-package profit [1][7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Future Profit Elasticity**: If significant price increases can be achieved, the profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery companies will notably increase. For instance, under a hypothetical price increase of 3% to 10%, companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong could see profit elasticity ranging from 10% to 34% and 18% to 60%, respectively [9]. - **Demand Forecast**: The overall demand for e-commerce express delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the near future. The anti-involution policies are anticipated to stabilize prices, potentially reducing the intensity of competition in the latter half of the year [10]. - **Long-term Competition Dynamics**: While competition is expected to persist, stronger network capabilities among leading mid-tier companies will likely enhance their competitive advantages. Attention should also be given to improvements in last-mile efficiency and the development of autonomous delivery vehicles [10].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]

8月1日，沪指早盘窄幅震荡，午后震荡下探；深证成指、创业板指盘中双双跳水，尾盘跌幅有所收窄。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.37%报3559.95点，深证成指跌0.17%报10991.32点，创业板指跌0.24%报2322.63点， 科创50指数跌1.06%，沪深北三市合计成交16200亿元，较此前一日减少逾3400亿元。行业方面，保 险、券商、军工、石油、半导体等板块走低，物流、环保、传媒、医药等板块拉升，光伏产业链、AI 应用、算力概念等活跃。 中信建投（601066）证券表示，当前市场情绪从亢奋状态有所降温，预计将阶段性震荡整固，也有利于 A股慢牛行情行稳致远。短期关注美元指数何时再度转弱和中美博弈进展，行业重点关注：半导体、AI 应用、人形机器人、创新药、有色、国防军工、交通运输、非银金融等。 今日投资机会解析 AI将强势带动电力需求增长 国际能源署预计到2030年，全球数据中心的电力消耗将增加一倍以上，达到约945TWh，占全球电力消 耗总量近3%。美国、中国和欧洲将是数据中心主要增长区域。 中信建投证券表示，近期，海外大厂纷纷上调资本开支预期，持续保持AI领域高投入。需求快速增 长，而输配电设备供应总体紧张 ...