Group 1 - The real estate ETF (512200) has seen a 0.56% increase, with a trading volume of 39.944 million yuan as of November 5, 2025 [1] - The index it tracks, the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, also rose by 0.56%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Yingxin Development (up 9.33%) and Hainan Airport (up 6.45%) [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the real estate ETF has grown by 1.098 billion shares, indicating a strong interest in the sector [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, the real estate market is in the early "stabilization" phase, with a projected slight narrowing of the total housing sales decline to -5.0% in 2026 [2] - Huatai Securities suggests that the market is bottoming out, supported by reduced new home supply and marginal improvements in purchasing power, with a focus on policy adjustments to enhance buyer sentiment [2] - The industry is expected to show a "dumbbell" differentiation trend, with structural stabilization signals emerging, particularly in "good housing" companies and commercial real estate opportunities [2] Group 3 - The real estate ETF (512200) closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors by categorizing the index into various industry levels [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Poly Developments, Vanke A, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, indicating a concentration of investment in these key players [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the initial "stabilization" phase, characterized by a "softening decline" in volume and price, with various supply-demand adjustment policies facing implementation bottlenecks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the overall performance of the real estate market is influenced by expectations of stabilization, showing positive trends at the beginning of the year, but weakening in the second quarter [2] - The estimated total transaction volume for first and second-hand homes in 2025 is expected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes decreasing by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [3] - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is affected by structural factors [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Structural Adjustments - To accelerate the transition from "softening decline" to "stabilization," there are still bottlenecks in the implementation of various supply-demand adjustment policies, such as difficulties in reducing effective inventory through land storage and slow progress in urban village renovations [2] - The company emphasizes the need for the policy side to focus on preemptive measures to control derivative risks, including credit risks of real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [2] Group 3: Future Projections - In a neutral scenario, the company anticipates that the decline in total housing sales will slightly narrow in 2026, with real estate investment potentially stabilizing [3] - If policies exceed expectations, it could lead to a rebound in housing prices, marking a transition to the second phase of stabilization; conversely, if derivative risks escalate, it may prolong the stabilization process [3]

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《二手房成交面积环比增长，推动房 地产高质量发展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.26 《"金九"销售成色不足，单月竣工面 积同比降幅转正—行业点评报告》 -2025.10.20 《新房价格环比降幅扩大，二手房价 环 比 降 幅 持 平 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.10.20 新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地产市场持续健康发 展 房地产 行 业 研 2025 年 11 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地产市场持续健康发展 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery since September, with second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year and month-on-month, while the new housing market exhibits a mixed performance. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted their housing policies, creating positive expectations and stimulating potential demand [1][2]. Policy Adjustments - Since August, major cities have optimized their purchase restrictions to boost the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. For instance, Beijing allows eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, while Shanghai and Shenzhen have also relaxed their purchase limits [2]. - Over 200 provinces and cities have introduced more than 510 policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal, demand activation, and supply optimization [1][3]. Market Activity - In September, key cities experienced increased market activity, with Beijing's second-hand housing transactions rising by 17.7% year-on-year and 17.2% month-on-month, reaching a six-month high. Shanghai and Shenzhen also reported significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions [4]. - However, in October, transaction volumes in key cities declined compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential cooling off after the initial recovery [4]. Consumer Behavior - The new policies have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with an increase in demand for higher-quality and higher-priced properties. For example, the average price of new homes in Shenzhen rose by 29% following the policy adjustments [6]. - Promotional activities by developers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have also contributed to maintaining interest in quality projects in core cities [7]. Financial Support Measures - Various regions have enhanced financial support for homebuyers, including increasing the loan limits for public housing funds and offering substantial subsidies for families with multiple children [8]. - Developers are actively promoting their properties with discounts and incentives, aiming to attract buyers during the peak sales season [8][9]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that policies will continue to focus on stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply in the fourth quarter. There is potential for further policy adjustments, such as lowering down payment ratios and enhancing loan conditions [3][5]. - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing support measures, including the acceleration of affordable housing projects and urban village renovations, which could inject new momentum into the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is approaching stabilization, with expectations for a rebound in the first half of next year based on current adjustment trends [1][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Proportion - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand homes increasingly replacing new homes [2][34]. - The average annual increase in the national second-hand housing transaction proportion is projected to be around 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with signs of stabilization expected by 2025 [2][34]. - In 2023, the second-hand housing transaction proportion in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a potential approach to the stable range of 60-63% [11][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield and Price Stability - The rental yield is a key factor in determining property value, with a reasonable rental yield expected to be around 2.5%-2.6%, close to the public housing loan interest rate [15][19]. - As of September 2025, the national rental yield across 100 cities was 2.37%, indicating a gap of 10-20 basis points from the reasonable level [23][34]. - The rental price index has shown a declining trend, with an average monthly drop of 0.26% over the past six months, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [28][34]. Group 3: Price-to-Income Ratio - The price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is significantly higher than in cities like New York and Tokyo, indicating a potential overvaluation [30][31]. - Adjusted calculations show that the price-to-income ratios for these cities are now more reasonable, with Beijing at 12.3 and Shanghai at 9.6, reflecting a significant decrease from previous years [31][34]. - The overall price-to-income ratio has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, suggesting a correction in the housing market [31][34]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing price still in a downward trend [34][36]. - The sequence of stabilization is anticipated to be new good houses first, followed by old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses [38][39]. - The rental yield of 2.5% serves as a benchmark for the overall real estate market stabilization, with variations expected across different city tiers [40][34].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, based on indicators such as second-hand housing transaction ratios, rental yield rates, and housing price-to-income ratios [2][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Ratio - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand housing increasingly replacing new housing [5]. - The average annual increase in the second-hand housing transaction ratio is projected to be 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with expectations for it to reach around 50% by 2025 [5][12]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the second-hand housing transaction ratio in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [12][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield Rate - The rental yield rate is a key indicator of the stability of second-hand housing prices, with a current national average of 2.37%, which is still 10-20 basis points below the reasonable level of around 2.5% [22][23]. - A rental yield rate that approaches the public housing loan interest rate of approximately 2.5%-2.6% is considered reasonable, indicating a balance between renting and buying [17][20]. - If rental prices stabilize, the rental yield rate is expected to reach a reasonable level by the second quarter of next year, potentially leading to a stabilization in housing prices [22][27]. Group 3: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio - The housing price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is reported at 12.3 and 9.6, respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range [28][30]. - The overall housing price has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, contributing to a more favorable housing price-to-income ratio [30][34]. - The current housing price-to-income ratios suggest that the market has significantly digested previous bubbles, with major cities showing ratios below 15 [28][30]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing transaction ratio and rental yield rate approaching reasonable levels [34][37]. - The sequence of stabilization is expected to be new good houses, old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses, with new good houses stabilizing first due to their strong product appeal [39][41]. - The overall stabilization of the real estate market will depend on macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, alongside the internal dynamics of the real estate market [34][37].

Market Overview - The current real estate market shows new homes with prices but low volume, while second-hand homes are trading price for volume[2] - Total transaction area for new and second-hand homes dropped from 1.93 billion square meters in 2021 to 1.5 billion square meters in 2022, stabilizing around 1.5 billion square meters in 2023 and 2024, with a forecast to maintain this level in 2025[2][18] New Home Market Dynamics - New home sales area is projected to decline from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to 810 million square meters in 2024, and further to 750 million square meters in 2025[18] - The pressure on new home sales is attributed to the rapid iteration of "good houses" leading to buyer hesitation and insufficient quality supply in core areas[2][26] Second-Hand Home Market Trends - The second-hand home market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with a 17.1% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to September 2023, and a 29.7% increase in September alone[12] - Second-hand home prices have been under pressure, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in September, marking the 41st consecutive month of price drops[12] Indicators for Market Stabilization - The proportion of second-hand home transactions is expected to approach or exceed Japan's steady state range of 60%-63% in 18 sample cities by mid-2024, indicating potential stabilization in new home sales volume[3][48] - The national rental yield is currently at 2.37%, which is slightly below the reasonable level of 2.4%-2.8%, suggesting room for price stabilization in the second-hand market[62] Economic and Policy Considerations - The stabilization of the real estate market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, with expectations for increased policy support in 2024[4] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is expected to create a new group of buyers, which could support the real estate market[4] Risks and Variability - The pace of market stabilization may vary across different cities and property types, with new home volume stabilizing before second-hand home prices[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and potential bottlenecks in new home supply[6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing a rally, with several companies reaching their daily price limits, driven by anticipated policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai by Q3 2025, which are expected to stimulate demand for improved housing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On the 21st, companies such as Shanghai Shimao, Bright Realty, and Yingxin Development saw their stock prices hit the daily limit, while Shahe Co. increased by nearly 4% [1] - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with new home sales prices in 70 cities showing a larger month-on-month decline but a smaller year-on-year decline [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - Institutions predict that the implementation of policies aimed at relaxing the real estate market will enhance the sector's investment value [1] - The combination of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to accelerate the progress of stockpiling and urban village renovations, improving the existing housing supply-demand relationship [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in September 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 major and medium-sized cities in China showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, signaling a potential stabilization in the market [1][4]. - In September, new home prices in 63 cities fell compared to the previous month, and all 70 cities reported lower second-hand home prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. - In Shandong province, cities like Jinan and Qingdao experienced a consistent decline in both new and second-hand home prices in September 2023, with Jinan's new home prices down 0.4% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2 - The narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices is seen as a positive signal, indicating that previous policy effects are beginning to take hold, alleviating long-term downward pressure on the market [4][5]. - Core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai showed resilience, with new home prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, and Shanghai achieving a significant year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4][5]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, it is anticipated that continued policy easing will support transaction volumes in core cities, while non-core areas and many small cities will need to adopt "price for volume" strategies to reduce inventory [5].

Group 1 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in the economy [1] - The capital market-related tax revenue has shown a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8% in capital market services tax, and a significant 110.5% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [2] - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue has increased by 5.4% year-on-year, contributing 31% to total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway and aerospace showing a notable growth of 31.5% [2] Group 2 - The real estate sector has seen a narrowing decline in tax revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] - There has been a significant increase in the procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises, with a 9.7% year-on-year growth, and high-tech manufacturing showing an 11.8% increase [3] - The steady growth in invoice data reflects an improving economic operation, gradual enhancement in corporate profitability, and sustained consumer vitality, supported by active capital market transactions [3]