房地产 房地产 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，扎实推进好房子建 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增长，支持城市 存 量 设 施 更 新 改 造 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 《新房成交面积环比增长，以高水平 安全保障城市高质量发展—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 《高基数下销售数据承压，开竣工面 积降幅扩大 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.11.16 | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently in a phase of stabilizing after a decline, with the second-hand housing market showing early signs of recovery, while the new housing market is recovering slowly due to developers' debt issues [1][2][3] - The market has experienced four rounds of policy stimulus, which have had short-term effects but have not fundamentally changed the weak transaction volume trend [1][3] Core Insights - Since June 2021, the comparable prices of second-hand homes have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative adjustment of 35% [1][3] - It is projected that in 2026, the sales area of second-hand homes will decline by approximately 3% year-on-year, while the sales area of new homes will see a smaller decline [1][3] - Real estate development investment is expected to be around 7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 15% [1][3] - The pressure on the market remains, with various indicators likely to continue declining, although at a slower rate [1][3] Factors Influencing the Market - The upward cycle of the real estate market depends on four key factors: demand, payment capacity, leverage space, and supply [2][9] - Current challenges include slowing population growth, limited urbanization potential, high housing price-to-income ratios, and significant corporate debt pressure [2][8][9] - The need for policy determination to address corporate debt and asset matching issues is emphasized [2][9] Strategies for Stimulating Demand and Improving Payment Capacity - To stimulate housing demand, strategies such as urban renewal, village renovations, relaxing purchase qualifications, and providing birth subsidies are suggested [10] - Improving payment capacity requires increasing income, reducing tax burdens, stabilizing the economy, ensuring employment, and lowering mortgage rates and transaction taxes [10] Addressing Inventory Issues - The real estate inventory problem is a significant concern, necessitating a reduction in housing supply, expediting the implementation of existing projects, and minimizing the supply of guaranteed housing [12] Future Market Outlook - The cyclical nature of the real estate market suggests that confidence and patience are needed while waiting for policy effects to manifest [13] - The market's future trajectory will be closely linked to monetary factors, as historical data indicates a strong correlation between asset prices and money supply [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent supportive policies and measures in the real estate market are showing positive effects, contributing to a stabilization of the market after fluctuations [1][3][6]. Group 1: Policy Measures and Market Response - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that various regions have accelerated the implementation of supportive policies to stimulate housing demand, leading to a stabilization in the real estate market [1][3]. - A total of 566 billion yuan in central government funding for urban housing security projects has been allocated ahead of schedule, which includes budgets for housing security and the renovation of old communities [7]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of city renewal initiatives, focusing on planning, funding, operation, and governance to enhance market recovery [7]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has shown a year-on-year increase of 4.7% from January to October, with cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing over 10% growth [2]. - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in 30 key cities remained stable at 274 million square meters, indicating a steady demand in the market [2]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased for eight consecutive months, with a total unsold area of 75.606 million square meters as of the end of October, down by 3.22 million square meters from September [4]. Group 3: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with the decline in funds received by developers narrowing significantly compared to previous years [4]. - Despite a year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment, some key cities are showing positive trends in investment, particularly in areas with effective urban renewal projects [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive effects of recent real estate policies, which are contributing to the stabilization of the housing market [1][6] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that various regions have accelerated the implementation of supportive policies to stimulate housing demand, leading to a recovery in the real estate market [1][3] - The central government has allocated a budget of 56.6 billion yuan for urban housing security projects, indicating a proactive approach to enhance housing supply [1][7] Group 2 - Recent data shows that the transaction area of second-hand housing has increased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to October, with several cities experiencing growth exceeding 10% [2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 274 million square meters in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a steady demand in the market [2] - The inventory of commercial housing has decreased for eight consecutive months, with the unsold area dropping to 75.606 million square meters by the end of October [4] Group 3 - The funding situation for real estate companies has improved, with the decline in funds received narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] - Despite a year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment, some key cities are showing positive trends in investment indicators, particularly in areas with effective urban renewal [4] - The market is currently undergoing a transition period, and while some indicators may fluctuate, there is a focus on building a new development model for the real estate sector [5]

全国城市更新工作推进会召开；566亿元中央财政城镇保障性安居工程补助资金预算提前下达；多地收 购存量商品房用作保障性住房……近期，房地产市场接连迎来利好消息。 国家统计局近日发布的情况显示，今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策，积极释放刚 性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。从统计数据来看，房地产市场虽有所波动，但政策成 效仍在继续显现。 二手房交易网签面积增长 近期，随着传统销售节点"金九银十"收官，重点城市楼市成交表现备受关注。 中指研究院发布1至10月重点城市二手住宅成交排名，南昌、沈阳、哈尔滨、成都、济南、东莞、上 海、深圳等17城同比增长。另有市场机构发布的最新数据显示，重点30城一二手房成交总量在今年前10 个月保持在2.74亿平方米的水平，与去年同期基本持平。 全国房地产市场交易总量保持基本稳定。住房城乡建设部数据显示，今年1至10月，全国新建商品房和 二手房交易总量同比下降1.9%。交易总量同比微降，说明目前市场的总需求基本稳定。其中，深圳、 武汉、厦门、沈阳、南昌、南宁、贵阳、昆明等城市新房和二手房网签交易总量同比均保持增长。 商品房库存"八连降" 随着各地区各部门加快出 ...

全国房地产市场交易总量保持基本稳定。住房城乡建设部数据显示，今年1至10月，全国新建商品房和 二手房交易总量同比下降1.9%。交易总量同比微降，说明目前市场的总需求基本稳定。其中，深圳、 武汉、厦门、沈阳、南昌、南宁、贵阳、昆明等城市新房和二手房网签交易总量同比均保持增长。 看二手房，住房城乡建设部数据显示，今年1至10月，全国二手房交易网签面积同比增长4.7%。上海、 深圳、重庆、南京、太原等十几个城市二手房交易网签面积同比增长超10%。 近来，新疆乌鲁木齐加快住宅老旧电梯更新工作，切实解决人民群众急难愁盼问题。图为专业维保人员 在乌鲁木齐市天山区一小区电梯机房安装控制柜线路。孙振嵩摄（人民视觉） 全国城市更新工作推进会召开；566亿元中央财政城镇保障性安居工程补助资金预算提前下达；多地收 购存量商品房用作保障性住房……近期，房地产市场接连迎来利好消息。 国家统计局近日发布的情况显示，今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策，积极释放刚 性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。从统计数据来看，房地产市场虽有所波动，但政策成 效仍在继续显现。 二手房交易网签面积增长 近期，随着传统销售节点"金九银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jin'ao International (00009.HK) reported a significant turnaround in its mid-term performance, achieving a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 198 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of HKD 134 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2025 were approximately HKD 0.0555, a recovery from a loss of HKD 0.0312 per share in 2024 [1] - The board of directors did not recommend the payment of dividends for the six months ending June 30, 2025, consistent with the previous year [1] - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were approximately HKD 57,000, down from HKD 96,000 as of December 31, 2024 [1] Industry Context - The Chinese real estate industry is experiencing a combination of policy support and market transformation aimed at stabilizing the market and accelerating the development of new industry models [1] - Although market sentiment has shown slight improvement, rebuilding confidence will take time, with sales recovery exhibiting structural and regional characteristics [1] Strategic Focus - During the deep adjustment cycle of the industry, the company continues to streamline operations and focus resources on the development of five quality projects [1] - The company aims to enhance asset management capabilities and profitability, increase property market value, improve asset efficiency, and further consolidate its position in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is stabilizing due to supportive policies aimed at releasing housing demand and promoting high-quality development, despite some fluctuations in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The total transaction volume in the national real estate market has remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 1.9% in new and second-hand housing transactions from January to October [1] - The decline in new housing sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% in sales area and 9.6% in sales value, showing improvement compared to the previous year [1] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters by the end of October, marking eight consecutive months of decline [2] Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of funds received, narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The delivery rate of the "guaranteed delivery" initiative has reached 99%, ensuring the rights of homebuyers and boosting confidence in new housing project deliveries [2] Group 3: Regional Policy Measures - Various regions have implemented targeted policies to stimulate the housing market, such as reducing purchase restrictions in major cities and providing subsidies for home purchases [3] - The market is transitioning from new housing sales to a focus on second-hand housing, with second-hand transactions accounting for 44.8% of total transactions and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in transaction area [2][3] - The ongoing transformation of the real estate market requires time, with fluctuations in certain indicators expected as a result of strict control measures and market adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is stabilizing with a dominant share of second-hand housing transactions, driven by various policy adjustments and incentives aimed at supporting housing demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Various cities have implemented measures such as home purchase subsidies and optimized housing credit policies to stimulate the market [2]. - Over 60 cities have introduced policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, including "old-for-new" schemes [2]. - The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry reported a 4.7% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area from January to October [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is gradually increasing, with second-hand homes becoming the norm in the market [1][3]. - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes remained stable, indicating effective policy measures [2]. - The sales area and sales volume of new homes have seen a reduction in year-on-year decline, with the drop narrowing by 9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: City Performance - Cities such as Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Xiamen have reported year-on-year growth in new and second-hand home transactions [3]. - Second-hand housing transactions in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have increased by over 10% year-on-year [3]. - The shift towards second-hand housing is attributed to urbanization transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the importance of housing's living attributes [3].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, primarily driven by young people and new urban residents [2][3] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing has decreased by 6.8% from January to October this year, but the decline is less severe compared to the same period last year [2] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing is increasing, with a notable rise in its market share, as it offers advantages such as lower total price and better location [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to October 2023, the transaction area of both new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The new housing market is increasingly catering to improvement needs, while the demand from young and new urban residents is shifting towards the second-hand housing market [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports that 15 provinces have seen second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales [2] Group 2: Policy and Supply Management - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to control new housing supply, optimize existing stock, and improve quality as part of a new phase in housing supply-side management [3][4] - The strategy of controlling new supply aims to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize housing prices, with new construction area declines narrowing to below 20% this year [4] - The focus on understanding housing demand changes across different demographics and regions is crucial for effective supply management, including the types of housing needed [4][5] Group 3: Quality and Demand Activation - High-quality housing supply is essential to stimulate demand, with a focus on improving not just new homes but also old and affordable housing [5] - The concept of "good housing" should be applied across various housing types, not limited to high-end properties, to encourage consumption and upgrade [5] - Efforts to enhance employment and income are necessary to boost consumer willingness and ability to invest in quality housing, creating a positive feedback loop between supply and demand [5]