（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250603申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：假期LME铜价上涨83美元。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶 | | | | 炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升 | 幅波动 | | | 有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美 国关税进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：假期LME锌价上涨26美元。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据 | | | | 来看， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

| | 20250509申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短期锌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, influenced by factors such as US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - Zinc prices might also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on US tariff talks, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff attitude, domestic monetary policy, alumina prices, and downstream demand [1]. - Nickel prices may operate within a range in the short term due to the combination of tight nickel ore supply, tariff policies, and different demand performances in various sectors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices slightly declined. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing significantly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The penetration of new energy is expected to strengthen copper demand in the automotive sector, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,160 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,538 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 21.65 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 193,975 tons, and the daily change was - 1,650 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices slightly rose. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is steadily increasing, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 485 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,633 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.93 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 171,400 tons, and the daily change was - 1,525 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 1.55%. Trump's tariff attitude has been inconsistent, and domestic monetary policy is becoming more relaxed. Alumina prices have declined again, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Currently, some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures to decline further, a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. The operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for aluminum cables, have slightly declined recently, and there is an expectation of a decrease in downstream orders. After the holiday, with the concentrated arrival of aluminum ingots, domestic social inventory may continue to increase [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 19,580 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,427 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 407,575 tons, and the daily change was - 4,000 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.35%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. Indonesia's new tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, with prices likely to rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly fluctuating and consolidating [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,240 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,698 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 201.50 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 199,782 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. Lead - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 275 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,923 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 256,700 tons, and the daily change was - 4,800 tons [2]. Tin - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,690 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 31,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 165.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,755 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2].

| | 20250425申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 短期可能宽 | | | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨超1%。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | 锌 | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | 可能宽幅区 间波动 | | | 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注 ...

| | 20250414申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 锌： | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | | 镍： 可能短期震荡运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨，美国关税出现反复。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及 | | | | 低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定 | | | | 向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税后期进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变 | | | | 化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨，美国关税出现反复。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由 | | | | 国家统计局数据来看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良 | | | 锌 | 好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市场预期2025年精矿供应明显改善，供应 ...