Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to rebound. The supply - side valuation is low, and the import growth rate has slowed down. Although there are issues such as over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales and the weakness of the real estate market, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. With a relatively low current valuation and the inflection point of inflation and production capacity cycle raising the lower limit, combined with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The operating range of RU is expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real estate market continues to decline and is yet to stabilize. Industrial added - value and social retail data are marginally weakening. Domestically, there is an anti - involution trend. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, which is beneficial for the capital side, but the spill - over effect of a potential US recession should be guarded against [5]. Supply - The long - term cycle shift enhances the valuation, but the supply elasticity is large. The phenological conditions in natural rubber producing areas this year are better than last year. The weak price difference between glue and cup - lump implies that supply is not a major problem. The weather is expected to be good, and the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable. There is a strong expectation of increased supply in October. However, currently, raw materials are relatively firm, the processing sector is in the red, and the basis is the strongest in the past five years. The global output is expected to increase by 0.5% this year, and China's import volume is expected to increase by about 10%. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is also relatively low compared to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber [5]. Inventory - Exchange RU warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and NR warehouse receipts were once at an extreme low. The de - stocking speed of Qingdao dry rubber inventory is slow, but the latest period shows accelerated de - stocking. Synthetic rubber inventory is at a neutral level. The inventory of all - steel tires in downstream factories is lower than in previous years, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level but is considered neutral considering the expansion of the market scale [5]. Demand - Export rush and replacement of old products have over - drafted demand. There is no expectation of improvement in the real estate market. The large - scale infrastructure project has begun, which is beneficial for the long - term demand of heavy - trucks. Heavy - truck sales have accelerated improvement under the stimulation of replacement policies and environmental protection policies. In September, the year - on - year increase exceeded 80%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks increased by about 22% year - on - year. The performance of construction machinery is mediocre. Passenger car sales remain at a historical high but show a downward trend. The operating rate of all - steel tires has improved compared to last year, and the inventory has decreased; the operating rate of semi - steel tires has marginally decreased, and the inventory has remained flat [5]. Strategy - Pay attention to the supply increase during the peak season as the supply - side valuation is low and the import growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the weakness of the real estate market is the main line of demand. Although there is over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. It is recommended to buy at low levels, with the RU operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for winter tires is concentrated, and the tire operating rate continues to rise. The inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased, with the cost - end support for natural rubber remaining strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season. For butadiene rubber, the supply - side support remains, and the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Raw Materials and Spreads - Thailand's glue is 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), cup rubber is 52.40 Thai baht/kg (+1.10), Yunnan's glue is 14,000 yuan/ton (+0), Hainan's glue is 13,600 yuan/ton (+0), RU basis is - 685 yuan/ton (+10), NR basis is 814 yuan/ton (-4), BR basis is - 220 yuan/ton (+0) [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,000 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,870 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), and that of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber is 1,760 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton). The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical is 11,200 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [1] Supply - The warehousing rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 5.64% (-1.99%), including 5.53% (-1.97%) for general trade and 6.22% (-2.14%) for bonded warehouses. The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 71.71% (-2.12%), and the output is 28,791 tons [1] Production Profit - The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 219.00 yuan/ton (-165.00), and that of Thai RSS3 is 2,544.00 yuan/ton (+70.00). The production profit of butadiene rubber is 48 yuan/ton (+206), and that of butadiene produced by carbon - four extraction method is 1,594.88 yuan/ton (-173.54) [2] Demand - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.87% (+1.91%), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.84% (+2%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 40.34 days (+0.39), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.26 days (+0.09) [2] Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 124,020 tons (-10,980), and the NR futures inventory is 42,640 tons (+2,521). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 24,600 tons (-6,200), the inventory of butadiene rubber manufacturers is 28,650 tons (+750), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 4,520 tons (-340) [2] 2. Market Analysis - Natural Rubber: Rainfall in major domestic and overseas production areas is expected to decrease. Since early October, China's inventory has decreased due to the slowdown in arrivals and the increase in tire operating rates. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires. With less rain later, focus on the price trend of cup rubber in Thailand. The cost - end support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season [3] - Butadiene Rubber: Many butadiene rubber plants are under maintenance, and more plants have maintenance plans. The supply - side support remains. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires [3] 3. Strategy - RU and NR: Neutral. China's overall supply and demand may show a prosperous pattern. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of social inventory will slow down or accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and the price is expected to move within a range. Pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [4] - BR: Neutral. Supply and demand may improve. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price provides bottom support for butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber is likely to rise, but the high inventory may limit the rebound space. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities between months [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is gradually increasing, but the demand remains strong, keeping the spot price firm and the basis in a strong position. The cost - end support for rubber is still strong. With the recovery of downstream开工率 and the resilience of exports, there is a certain rebound momentum in rubber prices. For BR, the supply may decrease due to increased upstream plant maintenance, and with the recovery of downstream demand, the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. It was the first time in the same period of history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 695 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 86.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,500 yuan/ton (+100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 220 yuan/ton (- 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,914 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.45% (- 1.37%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is on a rising trend, but the current demand remains strong, resulting in firm domestic spot prices and a strong basis pattern. The raw material prices in domestic production areas are decreasing, while in Thailand, the cup rubber price remains firm due to rainfall disturbances, providing strong support for the cost of rubber. The downstream operating rate has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The valuations of domestic RU and NR are currently low, and the implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, potentially leading to a rebound in rubber prices [7] - In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the BR main contract was 11,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were approximately 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high for the same period in recent years [2] - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 534.91 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The exports of automobile tires in the first three quarters were 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 700 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 350 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 847.00 yuan/ton (+19.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+28.92%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,750 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,912 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+0.13%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The recently announced domestic import data for September continued to increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The domestic supply is on an upward trend, but the current demand is still good, so the domestic spot prices remain firm, and the basis is strong. The rainfall in domestic production areas has significantly decreased, and with the recovery of raw materials, the domestic raw material prices are continuously decreasing. There will still be rainfall disturbances in Thailand, especially in the northern region. The cup lump price is firm, and the cost - end support for rubber remains strong. The downstream operating rate has rebounded recently, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low. The implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, and rubber prices may have some rebound momentum [7] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber this week will be more likely to rise than fall. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the same for BR [7] Core Viewpoints - The price of raw materials remains strong, providing cost support for rubber. In the short term, the domestic supply pressure is not obvious, and the overall demand has rigid support. The valuations of RU and NR are low, with potential for a low - level rebound. The supply of BR may decrease in the future, and its price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [1][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,150 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was at 12,365 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,040 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - **Natural Rubber Imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. It was the first time in the same period in history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate had remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - **Rubber Tire Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 534.91 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 750 yuan/ton (- 140), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 300 yuan/ton (+ 40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,103 yuan/ton (- 3,102.99), the NR basis was 828.00 yuan/ton (+ 27.00); the whole latex was 14,400 yuan/ton (+ 200), the mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 300), the 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 750 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,450 yuan/ton (+ 200) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.93 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.56), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 140 yuan/ton (- 200), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,907 yuan/ton (+ 52) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [6] - **Inventories**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [6] Strategy - **RU and NR**: The spot market is firm due to the slowdown in domestic arrivals. The basis continues to strengthen. Currently, rainfall in domestic producing areas has decreased significantly, and raw material prices are falling. However, there is still a lot of rain in northern Thailand, and the price of cup lump remains strong, supporting the rubber price. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show certain resilience, with overall demand having rigid support. Before the domestic arrivals increase, the domestic supply pressure is not obvious. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and there may be a demand for a low - level rebound [7] - **BR**: In late October, the maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants will increase, and the supply may decrease, which may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show certain resilience, with overall demand having rigid support. Supply and demand may improve to some extent. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price also provides bottom support for the butadiene rubber price. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be more likely to rise than fall this week. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the rebound space [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking, but the low valuation limits the downside. For BR, the supply - demand is expected to be strong in the later period, and the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,235 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] Tire Exports - From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of quantity, the exports were 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] Cote d'Ivoire Rubber Exports - From January to August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Automobile Production and Sales - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 595 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 295 yuan/ton (down 100), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,164 yuan/ton (up 106.66), the NR basis was 899 yuan/ton (down 37); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (up 50), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (up 150), the 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (up 30), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,300 yuan/ton (up 350) [3] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 57.19 Thai baht/kg (down 0.46), Thai latex was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.65 Thai baht/kg (down 0.30), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.45 Thai baht/kg (up 0.30) [4] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (down 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (down 17.50%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (down 122,953), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (down 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (down 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (down 705) [5] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 145 yuan/ton (down 115), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,620 yuan/ton (down 30), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,258 yuan/ton (down 63) [5] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 74.69% (up 4.15%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (down 840), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (up 1,300) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Currently, NR is relatively undervalued overseas, and its price performance is significantly stronger than RU, causing the spread between RU and NR to narrow recently. After the rainfall in the main production areas at home and abroad decreases, production gradually recovers, and domestic raw material prices decline. Thai raw material prices remain firm, mainly due to more rain in northern Thailand, but with less rain in southern Thailand, the latex price has loosened. The cost - side support for rubber has no obvious change. In the peak season with reduced rain, the supply is expected to recover. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The domestic arrival volume is likely to continue to rise, and the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside is expected to be limited. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. In October, there are still maintenance plans for domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the scale of maintenance may be the same as in September, providing support on the supply side. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply - demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be strong. The current high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, after the reduction of rainfall in major production areas at home and abroad, the output is gradually increasing, and the domestic raw material prices are falling. The raw material prices in Thailand remain relatively firm. The overall supply - demand in China is gradually turning to a looser pattern, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and the downside space is expected to be limited [6]. - For BR, there are still maintenance plans for domestic BR plants in October, and the supply side still has support. The demand for raw materials will slow down this week, but the rigid demand remains due to the rising operating rate of tire factories. The overall operating rate of BR this year is still at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The supply - demand of BR is expected to be strong in both aspects, and the current high inventory may follow the price of upstream butadiene to decline slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 310 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,920 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, a change of - 35 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the exports reached 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]. - From January to August, the exports of automobile tires were 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3]. - According to QinRex's latest data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with the same period in 2024. Looking at the data for August alone, the exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 640 yuan/ton (+ 125), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 490 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,256 yuan/ton (- 121.88), the NR basis was 954.00 yuan/ton (+ 160.00); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (- 250), the mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 300), the 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (- 300) [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.95 Thai baht/kg (- 1.16), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.15 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75) [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (- 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (- 17.50%) [5]. - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (- 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (- 705) [5]. BR - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (- 200), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of Shandong private - owned BR was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 2,064 yuan/ton (- 131) [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 74.69% (+ 4.15%) [5]. - **Inventories**: The inventory of BR traders was 5,700 tons (+ 0), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 0) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand in China is turning to a looser pattern, but the low valuation limits the downside space [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply side has support, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong in both aspects, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the butadiene price [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - side support for rubber remains. The news of state reserve sales has narrowed the price difference between RU and NR, suppressing futures prices in the short term. Before the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas may support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories is over, and with a slight increase in domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires is in a seasonal peak, with an increase in tire factory operating rates and continuous raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited. For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply, and although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] - Production and Sales of Automobiles: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] - Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [3] - Rubber Exports in Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3230 yuan/ton (+ 55.38), the NR basis was 869.00 yuan/ton (+ 43.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 30), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (- 30) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the price difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 20), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1580 yuan/ton (- 41) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6] 3. Strategy - For RU and NR, due to the narrowing of the price difference caused by the news of state reserve sales and the short - term suppression of futures prices, the cost - side support may limit the decline of rubber prices. After the end of the concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories and with a slight increase in arrivals, the inventory reduction will slow down. Although the demand is in a peak season, after the purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply. Although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may still cause disruptions, supporting the cost of rubber and limiting the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated restocking of downstream tire factories may be over, and with the slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires has entered the seasonal peak season, the recent tire factory operating rate has rebounded, and the rigid consumption of raw materials continues, so the supply - demand contradiction is still not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to weaken, but the overall decline space will be limited [6] - For BR, recently, the overhauled devices will be restarted one after another, and it is expected that the upstream operating rate will rise again, and the supply of BR will increase month - on - month. The demand side currently shows peak - season characteristics, and the tire factory operating rate has rebounded to the normal level. However, after the concentrated restocking of tire factories ends, the raw material demand has declined. The supply - demand situation shows signs of loosening month - on - month. Recently, there are concerns about cost - side drag on BR. Mainly, the weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of butadiene prices. At the same time, the recent inventory of butadiene is at a moderately high level, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking ends. It is expected that BR will show a weak pattern, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the lower price limit of BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,520 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] Export - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] Production and Sales of Vehicles - In the first eight months of 2025, the export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,285 yuan/ton (+ 202.68), the NR basis was 826.00 yuan/ton (+ 182.00); the whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton (+ 100), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the BR basis was 80 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,559 yuan/ton (- 1) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber (RU and NR), until the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas will continue to support rubber costs, limiting the downside of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories may be over, and with a slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. Tire demand is in a seasonal peak, with recent increases in tire factory operating rates and ongoing raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited [7] - For cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber (BR), recently shut - down plants will gradually restart, increasing the supply. The demand side shows peak - season characteristics, but raw material demand has declined after the concentrated replenishment of tire factories. Supply - demand is becoming more relaxed. There are concerns about cost drag, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices and high inventories of butadiene. BR prices are expected to weaken, but the large price difference with natural rubber will still support the downside [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,395 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [2] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information Import and Export of Rubber and Tires - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [3] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [3] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Automobile Production, Sales and Export - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4] Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 775 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 745 yuan/ton (-20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,556 yuan/ton (-136.43), the NR basis was 644.00 yuan/ton (+21.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (-70), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,680 yuan/ton (-70) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.73 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.85 Thai baht/kg (-0.60) [5] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+0.13%) [6] - The operating rate of high - cis cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber was 69.72% (-3.76%) [6] Inventories - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (-1,411) [6] - The inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber held by traders was 7,820 tons (-390), and the inventory held by enterprises was 25,900 tons (-400) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private - owned cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,514 yuan/ton (+214) [6]