Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that domestic methanol will maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week. The inland methanol downstream has high raw material inventories and mainly conducts rigid - demand procurement. The upstream has few overhauls and maintains a low - inventory norm before the festival. There is no incremental demand in the northwest, and factories still focus on sales. The current prices in the production and sales areas are at the bottom, and traders are cautious about short - selling. It is expected that the inland market will remain in a stalemate this week. In the port area, there are positive policy expectations across the year at the macro level, and the bottom - support from the reduction of overseas arrivals in the fundamental aspect is solid. However, at present, prices lack driving forces and are in a dilemma in terms of trends. It is expected that the port market will oscillate within a range this week. Pay attention to the macro trend and the actual de - stocking node in the ports. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a significant increase in the social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports, and an increase in the available circulating supply in the coastal areas, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyao. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16th, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 695 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CFR price at the main port in China is 251 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), etc. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2161 yuan/ton (unchanged), the number of registered warrants is 6648 (down 100), etc. The basis is - 11 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton), and the import price difference is 31 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton) [8]. - The domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends. The price in Jiangsu has increased by 0.84% to 2150 yuan/ton, the price in Shandong has remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton, the price in Hebei has remained unchanged at 2095 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 5.51% to 1800 yuan/ton, and the price in Fujian has increased by 0.94% to 2155 yuan/ton [9]. Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees, such as 81.54% in the northwest (down 3.55%), 68.71% in Shandong (down 2.39%), etc. [8]. Inventory Data - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 113.16 million tons, a significant increase of 11.32 million tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply of methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 3.93 million tons to 63.44 million tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol is - 73 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol is - 40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 294 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton) [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products of methanol have different trends. The price of formaldehyde has remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl ether has remained unchanged at 3850 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 0.74% to 2720 yuan/ton [32]. - The production profits and operating rates of downstream products also vary. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde is - 122 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 30.98% (up 0.01%); the production profit of dimethyl ether is 575 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 9.79% (up 1.45%); the production profit of acetic acid is 338 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 72.32% (down 1.29%); the production profit of MTO is - 880 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 84.18% (down 2.27%) [37][40][45][50]. 4. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Device Overhaul - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of overhaul or have overhaul plans, involving different regions such as the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul since November 2024, and Qinghai Zhonghao's 600,000 - ton/year natural - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [60]. Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol production devices also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, such as ZPC, which is rumored to have resumed one set (to be verified). Some devices in other countries are operating normally, such as Ar - Razi in Saudi Arabia and Petronas in Malaysia [61]. Olefin Device Operation - The operating conditions of domestic olefin devices vary. Some devices are in normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin device, which stopped for overhaul on March 15, 2025, and is expected to last for 45 days. Some devices are operating stably, such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical's 600,000 - ton/year olefin device [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Report's Core View - The methanol market is currently under pressure in the real - world situation due to significant inventory accumulation at ports and in the inland areas. The price of methanol is oscillating, and future focus should be on the de - stocking amplitude at ports and the start - stop status of Iranian plants. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 5 yuan to 2151 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region dropped by 10 yuan to 2135 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 3784 lots to 462,000 lots, and short positions increased by 476 lots to 591,000 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 19,370 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28% [1] - **Demand**: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises is 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [1] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1417,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia, which was 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [1] - **Macroeconomic**: The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant in Iran shut down due to gas restrictions, but the 1.65 - million - ton Bushers plant restarted. There is still pressure in the real market as ports and the inland areas had significant inventory accumulation last week. The import volume in November was 1.417 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12%, and the methanol price is oscillating [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 and MA2609, go long when the spread is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 and 3*MA2605, go short when the spread is high [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory at Jiangsu ports has rapidly increased. On the one hand, the previously delayed port discharges have been gradually realized. On the other hand, the demand for inland提货 from ports has decreased after the inland market weakened. After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentratedly realized, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted at the beginning of the week, and the plant situation is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the duration of the winter maintenance of Iranian plants. Although the operating rate in Iran is at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs to be further realized. In terms of MTO, Ningbo Fude's MTO is under maintenance, and in January, further possible maintenance of Zhejiang's MTO plants should be monitored [2] - The coal - based methanol production has high operating pressure, and the southwest gas - based methanol plants are undergoing seasonal winter maintenance. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operating rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report includes figures on methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, etc.) [6][7][11][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [6][24][28] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in figures [6][31][37] 3.4 Regional Price Spreads - Figures show price spreads between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][34][35] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report provides figures on the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][43][53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 24, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1412,500 tons, an increase of 193,700 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The significant inventory build - up in ports this week was mainly in Jiangsu, with 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels recorded during the period. The weakening of the inland market led to a significant decline in提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to a large - scale inventory build - up. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian increased [1] - Due to gas restrictions in Iran, the operating rate decreased and loading slowed down, alleviating import pressure to some extent. Considering the loading data in November and some delayed arrivals, the import volume from December 2025 to January 2026 is estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out on - the - spot inspections in 12 key regions across the country to investigate and seal up abandoned mine shafts and crack down on illegal mining [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting stating that it is necessary to boost consumption vigorously [2] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. announced that the world's first methanol dual - fuel VLCC tanker "Kaituo" was delivered in Dalian on December 22, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 2. 下半月港口预计到船集中； 1、基本面：驱动因素不同预计本周国内甲醇延续区域性走势。内地方面，考虑到冬季雨雪天气对运输造成影响，上游 甲醇工厂仍以低库存操作为主，且据悉产区部分甲醇企业有一定库存压力，出货需求下不排除进一步降价让利运费可能。 销区来看，近期产区甲醇价格回落且局部跌幅明显较大，对鲁北地区或有一定冲击，但同时运费坚挺对到货价格有一 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-25 港口库存再度快速上升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤490元/吨（+5），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润415元/吨（-30）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1870元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差298元/吨（-36），内蒙南线1860元/吨（-70）；山东临沂2238元/吨（+6），鲁 南基差266元/吨（-10）；河南2095元/吨（-10），河南基差123元/吨（-26）；河北2095元/吨（+0），河北基差183元/ 吨（-16）。隆众内地工厂库存403970吨（+12830），西北工厂库存231500吨（+5700）；隆众内地工厂待发订单201128 吨（-19301），西北工厂待发订单95500吨（-22300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2155元/吨（+23），太仓基差-17元/吨（+7），CFR中国248美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-14元/ 吨（-6），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2120元/吨（+15），广东基差-52元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存1412509吨 （+193691），江苏港口库存815291吨（+211266）， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, and the weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm. The inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2172 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 27 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 797,941 lots, down 57,443 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 110,375 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,748, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest spread is 220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 37 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 248 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 252 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons. The methanol import profit is 3.14 yuan/ton, down 2.05 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.52%, up 0.71%. [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.58%, up 1.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.09%, down 1.89%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.51%, up 2.62%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, down 0.85%; the olefin operating rate is 89.51%, down 0.44%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1038 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.78%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.81%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.07%, up 0.3% [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 40.40 tons, up 1.28 tons, a 3.28% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 19.36 tons, down 2.68 tons, a 12.16% decrease. The total methanol port inventory is 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons. The inventory in East China has increased, and in South China, it has decreased [2]. - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 89.49%, a 0.71% decrease. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continue to be shut down, and the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry has decreased [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 - MA2609, the strategy is to widen the spread when it is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 - 3*MA2605, the strategy is to narrow the spread when it is high [4] Core Viewpoints - The delayed unloading pressure at ports has started to materialize, and there is pressure for inventory accumulation at Jiangsu ports [2] - After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentrated, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted on Monday, and the situation of the plants is fluctuating [2] - Although the Iranian plants are operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs further confirmation [2] - The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude is dragging down port demand [2] - Coal - based methanol production is still operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance for southwest gas - based methanol production [3] - The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, acetic acid production has a slight increase but remains at a low level, MTBE production remains at a high level, and formaldehyde production has a slight decline [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads between different regions (Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][28][29] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [31][39] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures show regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [37][44][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [46][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short - term. The short - term domestic methanol enterprise total inventory may still show a slight accumulation. The port inventory had a narrow de - stocking last week, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 855,384 lots, an increase of 8,240 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 130,715 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,748, unchanged [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2135 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price difference was 220 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 21 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 248 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a daily increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 3.99 US dollars/million British thermal units, a daily decrease of 0.04 US dollars [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 79.96 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.92 tons (weekly), an increase of 1.54 tons. The methanol import profit was 5.19 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.15 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 391,100 tons (weekly), an increase of 38,300 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 90.52% (weekly), an increase of 0.71 percentage points [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.58% (weekly), an increase of 1.09 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.09% (weekly), a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.51% (weekly), an increase of 2.62 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (weekly), a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the olefin operating rate was 89.51% (weekly), a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1110 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 13.67% (daily), a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.83% (daily), a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.77% (daily), an increase of 0.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.77% (daily), an increase of 0.62 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 tons, an increase of 3.83 tons from the previous period, a 10.86% increase; the sample enterprise order backlog was 22.04 tons, an increase of 1.30 tons from the previous period, a 6.25% increase. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.10 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 1.54 tons. The recent domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction involved capacity loss was less than the capacity output of the restored production, and the overall output increased. The operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 89.49% as of December 18, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points from the previous period [3].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 估值具备韧性，关注波段节奏 ---2026 年甲醇期货行情展望 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | huangtianyuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 报告导读： 展望 2026 年，甲醇市场预计将以高产量、高库存、低利润为起点，整体价格中枢在成本支撑与供需博弈中震荡，上 半年基本面可能阶段性强于下半年。 成本支撑与利润挤压并存。预计 2026 年国内煤炭供需格局仍有韧性，价格中枢稳定，这将为甲醇提供成本支撑。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 供应增速放缓，进口仍是关键。国内产能虽维持增长，但增速下降，且存量产能利用率已处高位，预计 2026 年国内 产量增速将显著下滑。供应端的核心变量依然是进口。上半年，受伊朗季节性限气影响，进口量环比预计下降，对港口库 存形成一定减压。但同比看，因 2025 年底伊朗装置停车晚于往年，且非伊货源（如马来西亚、委内瑞拉）供应充足，上 半年进口总量可能仍高于 2025 年同期。下半年， ...