Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is still weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, but downstream profits in the inland areas are poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old facilities in methanol production is small. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and the port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which will suppress the spot price in East China. After the weakening of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 18, 2025, MA01 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from August 15; MA05 closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2293 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in various regions on August 18, 2025, showed declines compared to August 15, except for Hubei where it remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang was 2300 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.29%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.28%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 14 yuan/ton from August 15 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Buzhoukes Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 520 yuan/ton and 587.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 575 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from August 15 [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 413.70 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 16.30 yuan/ton (-3.79%) from August 15. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO was 99.40 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, up 55.20 yuan/ton (124.89%) from August 15; the profit of MTBE was 74.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-26.16%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 438,253 lots, and the open interest was 665,628, with shrinking volume and increasing open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: After some methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country restarted or increased their loads, the overall methanol operating rate in that country reached 66.36%, and the daily total methanol production increased. As of August 18, the methanol loading volume in that country reached 715,000 tons, a 385,000 - ton increase (116.67%) compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated weakly, and the night - session closed at 2375. Given the weak fundamental outlook, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly after the weakening of coking coal sentiment [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China and South China regions continued to accumulate. With high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin will increase the olefin industry's operating rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -103 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 665,628 lots, an increase of 42,183 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -132,231 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,968, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The East China - Northwest price spread was 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -101 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 262 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; CFR Southeast Asia was 324 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was -62 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 687,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; South China port inventory was 334,800 tons, an increase of 51,300 tons. Methanol import profit was 49.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 82.4%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.05%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.15%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.06%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23 percentage points. The olefin operating rate was 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was -940 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.64%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, a decrease of 4 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, with 45,000 tons of inventory accumulation in East China and 51,300 tons in South China. The port inventory continued to accumulate, with 236,000 tons of foreign vessel unloading recorded and a large amount of non - explicit unloading. As of August 13, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [3] Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate decreased slightly. After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old production facilities is small. Currently, inland coal - based methanol supply is gradually returning, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which suppresses the spot price in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2479 yuan/ton to 2435 yuan/ton, a decline of 44 yuan/ton (-1.77%); MA05 dropped from 2457 yuan/ton to 2416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-1.67%); MA09 fell from 2375 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decline of 35 yuan/ton (-1.47%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, while those in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged. Inner Mongolia's price dropped from 2125 yuan/ton to 2120 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from -104 yuan/ton to -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Prices**: The price of Buzhoushui Q5500 coal increased from 512.5 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton (1.46%), while prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 452.6 yuan/ton to 446.3 yuan/ton (-1.39%), and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -412 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from -33.6 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton (67.26%), and East China MTO profit increased from -620.07 yuan/ton to -550.07 yuan/ton (11.29%). Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid increased, while those of MTBE and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2476 yuan/ton, closing at 2435 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 427,587 lots and an open interest of 557,439 lots [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In a Middle - Eastern country, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, with the total loading volume in August rising to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Given the weak fundamentals, after the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still relatively high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor but have room for repair, so methanol valuation is relatively high. Regarding the driving factors, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production as the proportion of old - fashioned production facilities is small, and there is no expectation of a significant reduction in methanol supply. Currently, the supply of coal - based methanol in the inland area is gradually increasing, and downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, making further inventory building unlikely. It is highly probable that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, which will put pressure on spot prices in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2496.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 17.00 yuan/ton or - 0.68% from August 12 [1]. - MA05 closed at 2461.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 4.00 yuan/ton or - 0.16% from August 12 [1]. - MA09 closed at 2391.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 16.00 yuan/ton or - 0.67% from August 12 [1] 2. Methanol Spot Prices - The spot price in Taicang was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1]. - In Shandong, it was 2355.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 5.00 yuan/ton or 0.21% from August 12 [1]. - In Guangdong, it was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.50 yuan/ton or - 0.32% from August 12 [1] 3. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - The spot price of Ordos Q5500 coal was 510.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.49% from August 12 [1]. - The spot price of Datong Q5500 coal was 570.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 3.07% from August 12 [1]. - The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1] 4. Methanol Profit Situation - The profit of coal - based methanol was 452.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 13.70 yuan/ton or 3.12% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of natural gas - based methanol was - 432.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 4.63% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of Northwest MTO was - 33.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 40.40 yuan/ton or - 183.17% from August 12 [1] 5. Methanol Downstream Profit - The profit of acetic acid was 204.54 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 4.15 yuan/ton or 2.07% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of MTBE was 105.88 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.52 yuan/ton or - 7.10% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of formaldehyde was - 301.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 9.60 yuan/ton or - 3.18% from August 12 [1] 6. Important Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2375 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 271,458 lots and an open interest of 308,231, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - In the Middle East, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]

甲醇日报 | 2025-08-13 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润710元/吨（+23）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2125元/吨（+23），内蒙北线基差334元/吨（+21），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2390元/吨（+23）， 鲁南基差199元/吨（+21）；河南2260元/吨（+10），河南基差69元/吨（+8）；河北2275元/吨（+0），河北基差144元 /吨（-2）。隆众内地工厂库存293688吨（-30832），西北工厂库存185500吨（-30500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240800 吨（+10075），西北工厂待发订单122800吨（+10800）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2377元/吨（+3），太仓基差-14元/吨（+1），CFR中国269美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差5元/吨 （-7），常州甲醇2465元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（+0），广东基差-21元/吨（-2）。隆众港口总库存925480吨（+117080）， 江苏港口库存498000吨（+79000），浙江港口库存144000吨（-9000），广东 ...

| 甲醇日评20250812: 内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/8/8 | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/11 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2485.00 | 2475.00 | 元/吨 | 10.00 | 0.40% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.49% | 2451.00 | 2439.00 | 12.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2389.00 | 2383.00 | 6.00 | 0.25% | | | | | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2380.00 | -5.00 | 太仓 | -0.21% | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2330.00 | -0.21% | 2335.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2375.00 | 2372.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计本周进口到货集中下，港口累库概 率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主， 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势，但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力， 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段；中性 2、基差： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that with the supply of methanol increasing, shorting on rallies is the main strategy. Although coal prices have rebounded slightly during the peak coal - demand season, domestic methanol supply remains abundant due to high - level stable coal - to - methanol profits and increased methanol production after the autumn maintenance. Meanwhile, imports are recovering, and port inventories are accumulating as arrivals increase. Despite stable downstream demand, the overall situation favors a bearish outlook on methanol [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2390 (-13/-0.54%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2080 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia北线 at 2060 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the price in Lunan was 2300 yuan/ton, and in Lubei was 2310 yuan/ton. At ports, the price in Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20250726 - 20250801), the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1030453 tons, an increase of 8500 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 70.64%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: Coal - mining rates in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest have dropped significantly, but coal prices have rebounded due to stable demand. The methanol auction prices of mainstream enterprises in the northwest are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are around 650 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant as the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. In terms of imports, the international methanol device operating rate has continued to rise, the US - dollar price has fallen slightly, and imports have returned to a positive spread. Iranian devices have gradually increased their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, and the external - market operating rate has reached a new high this year [6]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, with a decline in the operating rate. However, the operating rate of MTO devices has increased, but some MTO devices are not operating at full capacity [6]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, and the basis is firm. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].