1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand is weakening, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,326 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 106 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][36]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,306 yuan/ton | 1,205 yuan/ton | - 101 yuan | | Current Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.53% | 1.24% | 4.95% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is delayed [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [20]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E [37].

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a volatile operation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,395 yuan/ton, the basis is - 115 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%; the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.17% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Soda ash production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Soda ash operating rate and production capacity: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally; the weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - Soda ash industry production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Soda ash sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [23]. - Soda ash downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate over the years [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory movement. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, showing a bearish situation [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,400 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 120 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.23%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 1.59%, and the main basis decreased by 2.44% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production volume is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Industry Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production volume growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to show weakness, with prices under pressure and a lack of significant demand growth [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 11, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is reported at 1230, down 17.14 from the previous working day, a decrease of 1.37%, while the heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1277.14 [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash facilities is stable, maintaining high supply levels, but new order signing is slow, leading to a lackluster market atmosphere [2]. - Downstream purchasing remains focused on essential replenishment, with no significant increase in overall demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [2]. Futures Market - On August 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1326 CNY/ton and closed at 1345 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.67% [5]. - The futures market is experiencing slight upward fluctuations, driven by rising coal prices and improved trading sentiment in the chemical sector, although the fundamental industry conditions have not shown substantial improvement [5]. Future Outlook - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high due to the resumption of maintenance operations, while downstream demand is weak, leading to insufficient market drivers [6]. - The soda ash market is anticipated to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with close attention needed on future facility dynamics and changes in downstream purchasing patterns [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,345 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 110 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,332 yuan/ton to 1,345 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.98%. The low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe remains unchanged at 1,235 yuan/ton. The main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 110 yuan, a change of 13.40% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [28][31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak performance, with prices showing little change across various regions, and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Summary - As of August 1, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash is priced at 1390-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1360-1430 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on August 1 is 1275.71, down 4.29 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.33%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1294.29, down 8.57, a decrease of 0.66% [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains stable, with Inner Mongolia Salt Industry planning maintenance on August 5, while Shilian Chemical and Huainan Debang plan to resume production in early August [2]. - Demand continues to be weak, with downstream companies showing reduced purchasing willingness and adopting conservative procurement strategies [2]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 opened at 1248 CNY/ton and closed at 1256 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.02%. The total open interest is 921,926 contracts, down by 52,098 contracts [5]. - The futures market is under pressure due to overall weak sentiment in the chemical sector, despite some support from inventory reduction [5]. Market Outlook - In the coming week, as previously maintained facilities gradually resume operations, supply is expected to increase. However, the cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers may limit acceptance of high-priced products [6]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a strong expectation at the beginning of the week to a more cautious outlook, with prices likely to remain volatile and subject to flexible adjustments [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soda ash futures has seen a decline exceeding 5% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has faded; alkali plant maintenance is less, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1420 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1316 yuan/ton, the basis is 104 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamental supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish**: The peak summer maintenance season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract dropped from 1440 yuan/ton to 1316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 20 yuan/ton to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 620% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 87 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has continued to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, regulatory tightening has increased market volatility. The glass market showed a strong overall trend this month, with significant rebounds driven by raw material support and policy stimuli, but ended the month with a sharp decline due to exchange supervision following rapid short - term price increases [1][5]. - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47]. Summary by Directory Glass Market Review - This month, the glass market showed a strong overall trend. Driven by raw material support and continuous policy stimuli, glass prices rebounded significantly. However, at the end of the month, rapid short - term price increases led to exchange supervision and a sharp decline [5]. Valuation - Basis - The average spot price in July was 1,103 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to 1,063 yuan/ton in June. The price fluctuated upward. The average price of the futures 09 contract in July was 1,108 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton compared to 994 yuan/ton in June. The basis narrowed slightly, and market sentiment cooled slightly at the end of the month [10]. Valuation - Arbitrage - The average spread between the main soda ash and glass contracts weakened compared to the previous month, and there is still downward pressure in the later period. The 9 - 1 spread of glass slightly narrowed, and the sentiment for far - month contracts increased significantly. The overall C - structure was maintained [15]. Valuation - Profit - The average production profit of each production line fluctuated at a low level, and the industry's pressure continued. Coal - based production may gradually become the cost reference, but short - term industry profits slightly recovered. In the medium - term, the exit trend may still continue [20]. Drivers - Capacity and Operation - Overall, capacity and operation remained stable at a low level [21]. Drivers - Real Estate Front - end - The real estate front - end demand has not improved significantly. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year [46]. Drivers - Real Estate Back - end There is no specific summarized information provided in the text. Drivers - Automobile - There are data on monthly and cumulative year - on - year changes in automobile production and sales, but no specific analysis is provided in the text. Drivers - Inventory - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. Drivers - Apparent Consumption (Estimated) There is no information provided about the drivers - apparent consumption (estimated). Viewpoints and Strategies - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47].