别看美国如今十分风光，背后的美债怕是特朗普也扛不住了！ 美国国债规模已经飙升到了36万亿美元，相当于许多国家GDP的总和，每天光利息就有几十亿美元，距离崩盘就差最后一根稻草。 为了填上36万亿美债，特朗普只能使用关税威逼中国妥协，然而得到的却是中国的强硬反击，面对即将崩盘的36万亿美债，特朗普决定"解决"最大的大债 主... 36万亿的国债真的不是小数目，堪称是一个国家的定时炸弹，对于美国来说，这颗炸弹随时都有爆炸的可能。 在2025年7月，根据财政部数据显示，公众持有约28万亿、政府内部持有的债务约7万亿，而利息的支出已经占到了联邦预算的17%。 光2024年一年美国就花了9210亿美元来偿还美债，平均每天几十个亿的开销，即使是对于全球第一大经济体的美国，也十分吃力了。 更麻烦的是，美国的债务还在不断利滚利的增长，从2024年底的33万亿到现在的36.2万亿，这增长速度简直是恐怖。 肯定会有人好奇，既然美国还不上债务，那为什么要发放那么多的美债呢？ 归根到底就是入不敷出，美国政府花钱如流水，税收却迟迟跟不上，社保、医保这些表面上的福利开支，虽然很多底层百姓享受不到，但也成了美国财政的 无底洞。 当然"吃钱" ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden shift in the U.S. Treasury Secretary's stance towards China reflects a strategic retreat by the Trump administration after facing multiple failures in its aggressive policies [1][3][19]. Group 1: Energy Policy - Trump's initial strategy involved leveraging energy sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil to create global supply tensions, aiming to address domestic economic issues [5][7]. - The OPEC+ decision to increase oil production undermined Trump's plan, preventing the desired volatility in oil prices that could have pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [7][9]. Group 2: Trade and Alliances - Trump's approach to isolate China involved threatening tariffs on key allies, hoping to create a perception of U.S. dominance in international negotiations [10][12]. - While some agreements were reached with the EU and Japan, these were met with significant domestic opposition, indicating a lack of genuine commitment to U.S. demands [12][14]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Challenges - Recent labor data revealed a significant downturn in employment, comparable to post-pandemic levels, which directly challenged Trump's narrative of a strong economy [17]. - In response to negative economic reports, Trump dismissed the head of the statistics bureau, highlighting his anxiety and inability to address the underlying issues [17][19]. Group 4: Political Implications - The combination of failed external strategies and poor domestic economic performance led to a drop in Trump's approval ratings to a new low of 37%, raising concerns within the Republican Party about upcoming elections [19][21]. - The shift in U.S. policy towards China is seen as a last resort after exhausting other options, indicating a retreat from aggressive posturing to a focus on domestic crisis management [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework marks a significant shift in the legal status and mainstream acceptance of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are now officially recognized by the U.S. government [1][6]. Regulatory Framework - The U.S. stablecoin regulation requires issuers to ensure that their tokens are pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio and mandates that the funds obtained from issuing tokens be reserved or invested in highly liquid U.S. dollar assets, including cash, bank deposits, and U.S. Treasury securities [6][9]. - This regulatory framework aims to promote the development of dollar stablecoins to support U.S. economic and financial strategic goals [1][8]. Global Impact - The U.S. stablecoin regulation is expected to have a profound impact on the global financial system, potentially altering its development direction and structure [1][8]. - The expansion of dollar stablecoins is anticipated to create new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, as the growing global user base of these stablecoins will become a significant buyer of U.S. debt [8]. Stablecoin Definition and Mechanism - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that maintains a stable value by being pegged to a fiat currency or other stable assets, distinguishing them from more volatile cryptocurrencies [9]. - The operational mechanism of stablecoins involves anchoring to assets to maintain price stability, with dollar stablecoins typically requiring a 1:1 backing with U.S. dollars or equivalent assets [9][12]. Market Overview - The two largest stablecoins by market capitalization are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which together account for approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins [10]. - USDT is issued by Tether and is backed by U.S. dollar-related assets, while USDC is issued by Circle and is similarly backed by high liquidity assets, ensuring transparency through third-party audits [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced a plan to borrow $1 trillion in the third quarter, doubling the amount planned four months ago [1] - The average daily cash withdrawal from the market is $11.1 billion, with the Treasury Secretary justifying this as a means to fill a cash shortfall [3] - The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal deficit, exacerbated by tariffs, which have led to a reduction in expected revenue [3] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 4.5%, while the 30-year bonds exceeded 5%, marking a five-year high [5] - Hedge funds are engaging in risky strategies, using leverage of 50 to 100 times to bet on bond price differences, which poses a systemic risk [5] - A chain reaction from forced liquidations could potentially destabilize the entire market [5] Group 3 - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with its holdings dropping to $756.3 billion, the lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis [7] - Despite the turmoil in U.S. bonds, the Chinese yuan has appreciated significantly, rising 3.5% over three months [8] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 12% this year, indicating a shift in global currency dynamics [8] Group 4 - China is actively issuing yuan-denominated bonds and competing with the Federal Reserve for global dollar buyers [10] - There is a notable increase in the use of the yuan for international trade, with nearly 40% of cross-border transactions in Southeast Asia being settled in yuan [10] - The share of global central bank reserves held in dollars has dropped to 58%, while the transaction volume in China's cross-border payment system has surged by 189% [10] Group 5 - The Chinese economy is ramping up fiscal measures, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio to a historical high of 4% [11] - Significant investments are being directed towards new infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing, with a notable rise in domestic sales of electric vehicles [13] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. have not hindered Chinese companies; instead, they have accelerated their shift to other international markets [13]

Group 1 - China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3 billion marks a new low since 2009, down from $1.06 trillion in early 2022, indicating a 30% decrease and reflecting a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The Chinese government is actively seeking alternative investments, with gold reserves reaching 2,298 tons, accounting for 7% of foreign exchange reserves, as a strategy to prepare for potential dollar depreciation [1] - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as Secretary of State Rubio's call for mutual respect appears to be a response to fiscal constraints while maintaining a hardline stance against China [3] Group 2 - The absurdity of the U.S. Treasury's "donate to pay off national debt" link highlights the irony of a system where public donations of $67.3 million over 30 years are insufficient to cover a single day's interest on national debt [5] - The shift in global economic order is underscored by the increasing use of local currencies among BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia's acceptance of yuan for oil, challenging the dominance of the dollar [5] - The annualized return of Chinese gold ETFs at 12% contrasts sharply with the -3% performance of U.S. Treasury funds, suggesting a trend where investors are moving towards gold and stable assets [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's strategic reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, signaling a complex financial battle between China and the U.S. [1] - In May, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $900 million, marking the third consecutive month of reductions, bringing the total to $756.3 billion, which is close to the psychologically significant $700 billion threshold [4][5] - From 2022 to 2024, China has cumulatively reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $281.3 billion, averaging over $100 billion per year, indicating a gradual and strategic approach rather than a sudden sell-off [4][5] Group 2 - China's current ranking in U.S. Treasury holdings has dropped from second to third, overtaken by the UK, allowing for more flexible operations without attracting excessive market scrutiny [8] - Three main reasons for the timing of China's actions include addressing the "U.S. debt crisis," reallocating foreign reserves into gold and industry funds, and responding to U.S. tariffs with financial countermeasures [9][13] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces in the first half of 2025, while $30 billion was allocated to semiconductor funds, indicating a strategic shift in resource allocation [9] Group 3 - Potential future scenarios include accelerated reductions in long-term U.S. Treasuries if the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates, or a significant sell-off of short-term bonds in response to increased U.S. sanctions post-election [14][16] - If U.S.-China negotiations resume, the remaining $756.3 billion in U.S. Treasuries could serve as leverage for enhancing the international status of the Chinese yuan [16] - The article emphasizes that China's gradual reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings is a calculated move to maintain financial stability while optimizing its foreign exchange reserve structure [17][20]

Group 1: Macro Environment - The recent passing of the US stablecoin bill in the House of Representatives is expected to strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and potentially alleviate the US debt crisis [2] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are generating positive sentiment, which is spreading to other commodity futures, leading to significant increases in the black and building materials sectors [2] - The global oil market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ increasing production significantly [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, which is significantly higher than previous increases, potentially restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day cut announced earlier this year [2] - The Northern Hemisphere is in the summer oil consumption peak, with US commercial crude oil inventories dropping to 422 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.859 million barrels [3] - The US refinery utilization rate remains high at 93.9%, indicating strong demand for crude oil [3] Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Domestic asphalt production is showing slight growth, with a total weekly output of 572,000 tons, a minor increase of 6,000 tons [5] - Despite an increase in asphalt supply, demand remains strong, with a significant weekly increase in shipments to 414,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [5] - Asphalt social inventory has decreased significantly, with a weekly drop of 4.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [5][6] Group 4: Overall Outlook - The overall market for asphalt is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a clear trend of inventory reduction [6] - The combination of a positive macro environment, improved oil supply-demand structure, and stronger asphalt demand than supply suggests that the asphalt futures market will maintain a bullish trend [6]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, potentially resulting in 10 million Americans losing health insurance [1] - The Act extends the tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and raises the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, indicating a significant increase in government debt [1] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of US industries to "deteriorating," which is a sign of potential economic recession [1][2] Group 2 - The "Genius Act" aims to support the US debt market by mandating stablecoin issuers to purchase short-term US Treasury bonds, creating a closed loop of "dollar-stablecoin-Treasuries" [2] - The global stablecoin market is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2030, with a significant portion potentially backing short-term US Treasuries, which could help absorb the increased US debt [2][4] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act's strategy of increasing tariffs while reducing taxes aims to attract foreign investment and stimulate economic growth, but faces significant internal contradictions [2][3] Group 3 - The US federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 123% in 2024 to at least 132%, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt [3] - The timing of tax increases and decreases creates structural contradictions, as external tax revenues have not materialized while internal tax cuts and spending increases are immediate [3] - The Act's tax cuts disproportionately benefit corporations and the wealthy, potentially exacerbating social divides and undermining economic growth [3][4]

Market Performance - US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.27% as of the report [1] - Notable individual stock performances include TSMC rising over 2% due to second-quarter net profits exceeding market expectations and reaching a historical high, and PepsiCo increasing over 5% with second-quarter revenue of $22.726 billion, also surpassing market expectations [1] - Nvidia and Microsoft both saw approximately 1% increases, achieving market capitalizations of $4.2 trillion and $3.8 trillion, respectively [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Waterdrop rising over 28%, NIO up over 6%, and several others including Douyu, Zhihu, Kingsoft Cloud, and iQIYI increasing over 2% [1] - Conversely, NetEase Youdao, Xiaomi Group (ADR), and Gaotu experienced declines of over 1% and 2% [1] Company News - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 225,000 shares of Nvidia stock for approximately $38 million, as part of a pre-set trading plan allowing for the sale of up to 6 million shares [6] - Tesla officially announced the Model Y L, a six-seat luxury SUV, with an estimated price of around 400,000 yuan [7]