近年来，中国房地产市场正经历一场深刻的调整。截至2024年10月，全国百城二手住宅平均价格已跌至每平方米14360元，环比下降0.60%，这已是连续第 29个月的下跌。昔日风光无限的炒房客，在高位入场后，如今正面临着巨大的亏损。 是什么导致了国内房价持续下行？原因主要有三点。首先，历经三年疫情的冲击，各行各业都遭受重创，许多人的收入锐减甚至失业，百姓的购买力已难以 支撑过高的房价。数据显示，一线城市房价收入比高达40，二三线城市也达到25，购房压力可见一斑。其次，房价下跌已持续三年，房地产市场的赚钱效应 早已消失殆尽，众多炒房客选择退出或持观望态度，进一步加剧了市场的下行趋势。再次，疫情之后，购房者变得更加理性，他们会根据自身的实际情况来 决定是否购房，不再像过去那样盲目冲动。 原因如下：首先，当前中国经济呈现出通货紧缩的态势。今年1至10月，国内CPI指数仅为0.3%，远低于年初3%的预期目标。这意味着，手握大量现金，在 购买房产、奢侈品、汽车、家电等商品时的购买力实际上是在上升，而非贬值。其次，今明两年，许多人可能会感到赚钱越来越困难。持有大量现金，能够 应对失业、疾病等突发事件，从而平滑人生的波动。反之 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about cash devaluation are prevalent, but the fastest depreciating assets in the next five years may not be cash, but rather real estate, automobiles, luxury goods, and university degrees [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate - Since 2022, the Chinese real estate market has entered a deep adjustment period, with average national housing prices down approximately 30% from historical highs, and some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing declines exceeding 60% [8]. - Future housing price trends will show divergence, with second and third-tier cities likely to see a slowdown in declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further downward pressure to align prices with local income levels [9]. Group 2: Automobiles - By 2025, the automotive market is expected to see intensified price wars, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and imported luxury brands decreasing by nearly 100,000 yuan [11]. - The second-hand car market is also affected, with significant depreciation observed; for instance, a car purchased for 260,000 yuan last year may only be worth 160,000 yuan now, indicating a 100,000 yuan drop in value [11]. Group 3: Luxury Goods - The global luxury goods consumer base has shrunk by 50 million over the past two years, with 65.9% of consumers actively reducing luxury purchases due to perceived low value for money [12]. - Economic downturns have led to a shift in consumer attitudes, with many middle-class individuals prioritizing practicality and cost-effectiveness over brand prestige, prompting brands like Gucci and Burberry to implement significant price reductions [12]. Group 4: University Degrees - The value of university degrees has rapidly depreciated due to the proliferation of higher education, with over 10 million graduates entering the job market annually, diminishing the degree's status as a key to high-income employment [12].

Core Viewpoint - Experts predict that domestic inflation is imminent by the second half of 2025 due to significant monetary expansion, yet the economy remains in a deflationary cycle with a CPI of -0.3% as of September 2025, indicating that money is becoming more valuable [1][3]. Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - As of September 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, which is double the GDP, yet inflation has not materialized due to insufficient consumer and investment confidence, leading to stagnant prices [1][3]. - The deflationary environment is exacerbated by a sluggish real economy and declining household incomes, resulting in decreased consumer demand and prompting businesses to lower prices to clear inventory [3]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities falling to 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, and prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months [8]. - The average decline in housing prices exceeds 30%, with certain areas around Beijing seeing drops of over 60%, suggesting that investing in real estate is not advisable at this time [8]. Stock Market Insights - The A-share market has seen a new wave of growth since the beginning of 2025, primarily driven by lower bank deposit rates prompting investors to shift funds into the stock market [5]. - Caution is advised for investors in the stock market, particularly against blindly chasing high prices and using leverage, as these strategies could lead to significant losses if the market turns [5]. Investment Products and Risks - The bank wealth management market reached a scale of 30.67 trillion yuan by June 2025, with annualized returns between 2.25% and 2.55%, which are higher than one-year fixed deposit rates [10]. - Despite the perceived safety of bank wealth management products, risks are increasing, particularly due to declining yields in the bond market, which could lead to potential losses even in lower-risk products [10]. Entrepreneurship Challenges - The current economic deflation poses significant challenges for new entrepreneurs, including shrinking consumer demand, oversaturation in traditional industries, rising operational costs, and competition from e-commerce [12]. - Given the economic context, it is recommended to avoid risky investments and focus on low-risk products like government bonds or large-denomination certificates of deposit to preserve capital until the deflationary cycle ends [12].

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant rebound after a brief decline, reaching a price increase of 40 USD today, indicating a strong return to historical highs [1] - The recent trading pattern shows a V-shaped reversal, with gold touching 3650, and further resistance levels identified at 3658 and 3674 [3] - After four months of continuous gains, gold faced a period of high-level adjustments, but has now broken through to a strong upward trend [3] Group 2 - The recent market dynamics were influenced by a reversal in the U.S. debt crisis, leading to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries and a stronger dollar, which initially pressured gold [4] - Unexpected inflation data from the U.S. CPI indicated rising inflation, while unemployment claims exceeded expectations, prompting speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which subsequently boosted gold prices [5] - Current expectations regarding inflation and consumption are critical indicators for the U.S. economy and may directly impact Federal Reserve policy, as well as the U.S. debt and stock markets [6] Group 3 - The market is already anticipating actions from the Federal Reserve, even before any official announcements [7] - Global stock markets, including those in the U.S. and China, are reaching new highs, indicating a continued bullish trend [8] - There is a significant influx of capital into the market, suggesting that investors are preparing for upcoming opportunities [9] - The global financial landscape is experiencing a wave of liquidity, with currencies entering a depreciation phase [10]

Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the era of rapid price increases in China is approaching, primarily due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by June 2025, which is double the GDP. However, instead of inflation, the economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with prices of goods like cars, houses, and luxury items still in a downward adjustment phase [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The deflationary cycle in the domestic economy is attributed to two main factors: despite significant monetary overproduction, much of the excess liquidity is not entering the goods or capital markets but is circulating within the financial system due to insufficient investment and consumption confidence. This has led to falling prices in the goods market [3]. - Additionally, the sluggish performance of the real economy has resulted in stagnant or declining household income, leading to a rapid shrinkage in consumer demand. Consequently, businesses face severe inventory backlogs and are compelled to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the economy enters a deflationary period, industry insiders advise caution regarding asset depreciation, suggesting that investors should avoid certain actions: - Do not chase high stock prices, as the recent bull market in A-shares is driven by capital inflow from low bank deposit rates, making it unsustainable [7][9]. - Exercise caution when purchasing wealth management products, as the market has seen an increase in losses, with many investors facing principal losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [11]. - Avoid investing in real estate, as the market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% [13]. - Refrain from blind entrepreneurship, as the success rate is low in a shrinking market, with rising costs and intense competition posing significant challenges [15]. Market Outlook - Starting in September, there may be a need to prepare for asset depreciation, as both real estate and stock markets exhibit significant bubbles and lack long-term investment value. In a deflationary context, risks associated with bank wealth management products and entrepreneurship are high, potentially leading to principal losses. It is recommended to consider low-risk investment products, such as government bonds and large-denomination certificates of deposit, to preserve capital and take advantage of future investment opportunities when asset bubbles burst [16].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is leading to a depreciation of wealth primarily held in cash and real estate, with expectations of continued downward pressure over the next three years [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate - Real estate values have been declining since the second half of 2021, spreading from third-tier cities to some second-tier cities and even provincial capitals, with prices reverting to levels seen three years ago [1]. - Families with multiple properties are experiencing significant asset depreciation, with greater losses correlated to the number of properties owned [1]. Group 2: Cash and Inflation - The purchasing power of cash is decreasing due to loose monetary policies resulting in rising prices, with daily expenses significantly increasing; for example, grocery shopping costs have risen from 100-200 yuan to at least 300-500 yuan [3]. - Bank deposit interest rates are falling, with rates above 3% becoming rare, which is insufficient to counteract inflation, leading to a decline in the real value of savings [3]. Group 3: Alternative Assets - There are suggestions to invest in gold as a hedge against inflation, but gold investment carries risks due to price volatility; it is considered a good investment only when prices fall below $1200 per ounce, while risks increase significantly when prices exceed $1800 per ounce [5]. - The domestic gold market has barriers to entry, making it difficult to liquidate investments, and the probability of investment losses is notable [5]. Group 4: Valuable Assets and Skills - Urban land resources are becoming scarce due to ongoing population influx into major cities, making them a valuable asset for the wealthy and real estate companies, as they can serve as collateral for loans during financial difficulties [7]. - Possessing professional skills is crucial during inflationary periods, as skilled workers have more job opportunities and relatively stable incomes, which can be supplemented through part-time work [9]. - Maintaining good health is emphasized as a priceless asset, reducing medical expenses and improving quality of life, especially as healthcare costs rise during inflation [11]. - Mastery of financial management skills is essential for effectively managing personal wealth, mitigating risks, and achieving asset appreciation in a complex economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, which experienced significant growth post-1998 reforms, is now facing a downturn, leading to potential asset devaluation for families heavily invested in property [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Households - Approximately 45% of urban households in China have invested in multiple properties, which are now at risk of losing value as housing prices continue to decline [1]. - Over 70% of the wealth of ordinary families is tied up in real estate, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations [3]. - The decline in housing prices has created a sense of urgency and anxiety among homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as they face the risk of asset depreciation [3][9]. Group 2: Financial Pressures - Many homeowners purchased properties using loans, and with the economic slowdown post-pandemic, their ability to repay these loans is diminishing, leading to increased risk of default [5]. - The rising pressure to meet mortgage obligations is forcing some homeowners to sell their properties at lower prices, further exacerbating the market's downward trend [5][7]. - The number of properties listed for sale has surged, with cities reporting over 100,000 listings, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [7]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is contributing to a broader decrease in consumer spending, as homeowners feel financially constrained and are less willing to spend [9][10]. - The real estate sector's struggles are affecting numerous related industries, leading to increased operational pressures for businesses and reduced income for workers [9][12]. - A sustained decline in property values could have severe implications for the financial system, as real estate is closely linked to banking and credit markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the assets that are expected to depreciate the fastest over the next five years, highlighting the challenges faced by individuals in a struggling economy and the declining value of traditionally stable assets [1]. Group 1: Depreciating Assets - Educational degrees are becoming less valuable due to the oversupply of graduates, with 12.22 million expected in 2025, leading to a devaluation of degrees [6]. - Mid-range and high-end car prices are projected to drop significantly, with mid-range cars expected to decrease by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and high-end cars by over 100,000 yuan due to reduced consumer demand and market saturation [8]. - Commercial properties are losing value, as evidenced by a shop purchased for 2.4 million yuan now valued at only 1.4 million yuan, driven by decreased consumer spending and a shift to online shopping [10]. Group 2: Real Estate and Luxury Goods - The value of old and dilapidated school district houses is declining as educational reforms randomize school admissions, undermining the previous demand for such properties [12]. - The luxury goods market is experiencing a downturn, with demand decreasing due to reduced disposable income among middle-class families and the rise of counterfeit products that appeal to lower-income consumers [15]. - The collectibles market is facing a bubble burst, with significant drops in value for items like badges, which have seen prices fall from 2,000 yuan to 300 yuan, indicating a risk for investors in this sector [17].