Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the era of rapid price increases in China is approaching, primarily due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by June 2025, which is double the GDP. However, instead of inflation, the economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with prices of goods like cars, houses, and luxury items still in a downward adjustment phase [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The deflationary cycle in the domestic economy is attributed to two main factors: despite significant monetary overproduction, much of the excess liquidity is not entering the goods or capital markets but is circulating within the financial system due to insufficient investment and consumption confidence. This has led to falling prices in the goods market [3]. - Additionally, the sluggish performance of the real economy has resulted in stagnant or declining household income, leading to a rapid shrinkage in consumer demand. Consequently, businesses face severe inventory backlogs and are compelled to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the economy enters a deflationary period, industry insiders advise caution regarding asset depreciation, suggesting that investors should avoid certain actions: - Do not chase high stock prices, as the recent bull market in A-shares is driven by capital inflow from low bank deposit rates, making it unsustainable [7][9]. - Exercise caution when purchasing wealth management products, as the market has seen an increase in losses, with many investors facing principal losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [11]. - Avoid investing in real estate, as the market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% [13]. - Refrain from blind entrepreneurship, as the success rate is low in a shrinking market, with rising costs and intense competition posing significant challenges [15]. Market Outlook - Starting in September, there may be a need to prepare for asset depreciation, as both real estate and stock markets exhibit significant bubbles and lack long-term investment value. In a deflationary context, risks associated with bank wealth management products and entrepreneurship are high, potentially leading to principal losses. It is recommended to consider low-risk investment products, such as government bonds and large-denomination certificates of deposit, to preserve capital and take advantage of future investment opportunities when asset bubbles burst [16].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is leading to a depreciation of wealth primarily held in cash and real estate, with expectations of continued downward pressure over the next three years [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate - Real estate values have been declining since the second half of 2021, spreading from third-tier cities to some second-tier cities and even provincial capitals, with prices reverting to levels seen three years ago [1]. - Families with multiple properties are experiencing significant asset depreciation, with greater losses correlated to the number of properties owned [1]. Group 2: Cash and Inflation - The purchasing power of cash is decreasing due to loose monetary policies resulting in rising prices, with daily expenses significantly increasing; for example, grocery shopping costs have risen from 100-200 yuan to at least 300-500 yuan [3]. - Bank deposit interest rates are falling, with rates above 3% becoming rare, which is insufficient to counteract inflation, leading to a decline in the real value of savings [3]. Group 3: Alternative Assets - There are suggestions to invest in gold as a hedge against inflation, but gold investment carries risks due to price volatility; it is considered a good investment only when prices fall below $1200 per ounce, while risks increase significantly when prices exceed $1800 per ounce [5]. - The domestic gold market has barriers to entry, making it difficult to liquidate investments, and the probability of investment losses is notable [5]. Group 4: Valuable Assets and Skills - Urban land resources are becoming scarce due to ongoing population influx into major cities, making them a valuable asset for the wealthy and real estate companies, as they can serve as collateral for loans during financial difficulties [7]. - Possessing professional skills is crucial during inflationary periods, as skilled workers have more job opportunities and relatively stable incomes, which can be supplemented through part-time work [9]. - Maintaining good health is emphasized as a priceless asset, reducing medical expenses and improving quality of life, especially as healthcare costs rise during inflation [11]. - Mastery of financial management skills is essential for effectively managing personal wealth, mitigating risks, and achieving asset appreciation in a complex economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, which experienced significant growth post-1998 reforms, is now facing a downturn, leading to potential asset devaluation for families heavily invested in property [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Households - Approximately 45% of urban households in China have invested in multiple properties, which are now at risk of losing value as housing prices continue to decline [1]. - Over 70% of the wealth of ordinary families is tied up in real estate, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations [3]. - The decline in housing prices has created a sense of urgency and anxiety among homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as they face the risk of asset depreciation [3][9]. Group 2: Financial Pressures - Many homeowners purchased properties using loans, and with the economic slowdown post-pandemic, their ability to repay these loans is diminishing, leading to increased risk of default [5]. - The rising pressure to meet mortgage obligations is forcing some homeowners to sell their properties at lower prices, further exacerbating the market's downward trend [5][7]. - The number of properties listed for sale has surged, with cities reporting over 100,000 listings, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [7]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is contributing to a broader decrease in consumer spending, as homeowners feel financially constrained and are less willing to spend [9][10]. - The real estate sector's struggles are affecting numerous related industries, leading to increased operational pressures for businesses and reduced income for workers [9][12]. - A sustained decline in property values could have severe implications for the financial system, as real estate is closely linked to banking and credit markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the assets that are expected to depreciate the fastest over the next five years, highlighting the challenges faced by individuals in a struggling economy and the declining value of traditionally stable assets [1]. Group 1: Depreciating Assets - Educational degrees are becoming less valuable due to the oversupply of graduates, with 12.22 million expected in 2025, leading to a devaluation of degrees [6]. - Mid-range and high-end car prices are projected to drop significantly, with mid-range cars expected to decrease by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and high-end cars by over 100,000 yuan due to reduced consumer demand and market saturation [8]. - Commercial properties are losing value, as evidenced by a shop purchased for 2.4 million yuan now valued at only 1.4 million yuan, driven by decreased consumer spending and a shift to online shopping [10]. Group 2: Real Estate and Luxury Goods - The value of old and dilapidated school district houses is declining as educational reforms randomize school admissions, undermining the previous demand for such properties [12]. - The luxury goods market is experiencing a downturn, with demand decreasing due to reduced disposable income among middle-class families and the rise of counterfeit products that appeal to lower-income consumers [15]. - The collectibles market is facing a bubble burst, with significant drops in value for items like badges, which have seen prices fall from 2,000 yuan to 300 yuan, indicating a risk for investors in this sector [17].