Economic Overview - The U.S. inflation has been defeated, with a core inflation rate of 1.5%, and an expected economic growth rate of 5.4% by Q4 2025, indicating a growth rate twice that of the IMF's forecast [3] - The U.S. has increased its oil production by 730,000 barrels per day, which is expected to help Venezuela and lead to gasoline prices dropping below $2 per gallon [4] Federal Budget and Trade - The federal budget deficit has been reduced by $100 billion, while U.S. exports have increased by $150 billion [5] - The new tariff proposals by President Trump have been criticized by EU leaders, indicating potential retaliatory measures that could affect U.S. businesses and trade agreements [8] Market Reactions - Following Trump's remarks about not using military force regarding Greenland, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices rose, yields fell, and the U.S. dollar index increased, while major U.S. stock indices opened higher [5]

1月21日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0014，下调8点。 贝森特表示："我预计总统可能最早会在下周作出决定，我们就此进行了大量深入的讨论。整个遴选流程自去年9月启动，当时共有11位非常有实力的候选 人，目前已缩减至4人。总统本人已经与这四位候选人全部见过面，最终将由他亲自拍板。" 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为20.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 78.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 来源：新浪网 美财长贝森特：特朗普最快下周敲定下一任美联储主席人选 在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛期间，贝森特在当天接受采访时透露，特朗普已将接替现任主席鲍威尔的人选范围缩小至四人，最终决定即将公布。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特表示，随着白宫搜寻新任美联储负责人的工作引发高度关注， 总统特朗普可能最早于下周宣布他选定的下一任美联储主席人选。 贝森特周二在达沃斯举行的新闻发布会上表示，"我们有四位极佳的候选人——这将由总统决定。我设 想他可能最早在下周发布公告"。他目前正在当地参加世界经济论坛。 但这场竞争的态势在最近几周似乎发生了变化。哈塞特曾一度被视为领跑者，但特朗普上周对他获得提 名表现出犹豫，担心这会使政府失去一位在经济领域最有力的发声者。 "说实话，我其实想让你留在现在的职位上，"特朗普在白宫的一次活动中对哈塞特说。然而，目前尚不 清楚这些言论是预示着内部讨论的转向，还是总统的随口之言。 此外，在针对美联储处理装修工程方式的调查中向其发出传票的决定，以及鲍威尔就该工程向国会发表 的言论，也为这一过程增添了不确定性。此举在华盛顿引发了强烈反对，反对者包括参议院银行业委员 会成员、共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯，他威胁要在该案解决之前反对任何美联储的人事提名。 据知情人士透露，贝莱德的里德势头有所上升。知情人士表示，里德被认为可能更容易在提名确认程序 中获得通过。 在由贝森特领导的长期搜寻之后，挑 ...

责任编辑：李肇孚 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国总统特朗普"最早可能下周就会宣布"美联储新任主席的人选。 贝森特在达沃斯接受记者采访时说，美联储主席一职有"四位非常优秀的候选人"。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国总统特朗普"最早可能下周就会宣布"美联储新任主席的人选。 贝森特在达沃斯接受记者采访时说，美联储主席一职有"四位非常优秀的候选人"。 责任编辑：李肇孚 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies; strengthening observation on aluminum; observing nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish sideways for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Buying on dips for PVC; temporary observation for caustic soda and soda ash; range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; bearish sideways for polyolefins [1][20][22][23][28][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; bearish sideways for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - term selling on rallies for near - term hog contracts, cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; short - term cautious about chasing high for corn, hedging on rallies for grain holders; bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts, bearish on far - term contracts; bearish sideways for fats and oils [1][33][37][39][41] Core Views - Global geopolitical events, such as Trump's tariff policies and military threat to Iran, along with changes in Fed chairmanship expectations, impact market sentiment and asset prices [5][12][13][17][19] - Central bank policies, like interest rate adjustments, influence the performance of stocks, bonds, and other financial products [5][6] - Supply and demand fundamentals, including production, inventory, and consumption, are the main factors determining the price trends of various commodities [8][9][11][12][14][15][17][19][22][23][26][27][35][36][38][39][40][41][43][44][46] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Affected by geopolitical events and central bank policies, expected to trade sideways in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate adjustment, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend, expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to weak demand and high inventory, prices are under pressure, suggesting short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: With neutral valuation and short - term balanced supply and demand, it is expected to trade sideways in the short - term, with range trading as the main strategy [8] - **Glass**: With weak demand and increasing mid - stream inventory, it is expected to trade bearishly sideways, suggesting selling on rallies [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting exiting long positions on rallies [11][12][13] - **Aluminum**: With stable supply and weakening demand, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation [14] - **Nickel**: Affected by Indonesian policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting observation [15] - **Tin**: With tight supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [16][17] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and Fed policies, they are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias, suggesting holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold [17][19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply - demand balance and cost factors, it is expected to trade range - bound [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With low valuation and potential policy support, the bottom may have been reached, suggesting buying on dips [20][22] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, it is expected to trade sideways at a low level, suggesting temporary observation [23] - **Soda Ash**: With supply - demand imbalance and cost support, it is suggested to temporarily exit and observe [30] - **Styrene, Rubber, Urea, and Methanol**: All expected to trade sideways, with range trading as the main strategy [22][24][26][27] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening demand and cost support, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a long - term uptrend, they are expected to adjust sideways in the short - term, with a bullish long - term outlook [30] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales in the market, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [31][32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With high supply pressure in the short - term and potential capacity reduction in the long - term, short - term selling on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness on far - term contracts are suggested [33][36] - **Eggs**: With high valuation in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term, hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies is suggested [37][39] - **Corn**: With balanced short - term supply and demand and a looser long - term supply - demand pattern, short - term caution about chasing high and hedging on rallies for grain holders are suggested [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a bearish long - term outlook and a relatively tight near - term supply - demand situation, different trading strategies for near - term and far - term contracts are suggested [41] - **Fats and Oils**: Expected to open lower and trade bearishly sideways, suggesting observing the narrowing spread strategies for rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean 05 contracts [41][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gold is affected by the resurgence of risk aversion, while silver is influenced by tariff expectation fluctuations. Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines. Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling. Aluminum is grinding at a high level, and alumina is in a resonant decline. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation. Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. Key Points by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Gold is affected by risk aversion, and silver by tariff expectations [2]. - **Market data**: For gold, the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closed at 1,035.20 yuan with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session price rose 0.04%. The Comex gold 2602 closed at 4,620.50 dollars with a 0.29% decline. The SPDR gold ETF increased its position by 1 ton. For silver, the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closed at 22,713 yuan with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session price rose 1.40%. The Comex silver 2602 closed at 92.210 dollars with a 1.05% decline. The SLV silver ETF reduced its position by 180 tons [4]. - **News**: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries from February 1st, and the EU may counter - impose tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [4]. Copper - **Core view**: Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,770 yuan with a 1.75% decline, and the night - session price rose 2.87%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,809 dollars with a 2.59% decline. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,300 tons, and that of LME copper increased by 2,450 tons [7]. - **News**: The production of Codelco in November decreased by 3% year - on - year. The US government may lift the mining ban in Minnesota. Codelco plans to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine. The State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase [7][9]. Zinc - **Core view**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,750 yuan with a 1.36% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,207.5 dollars with a 3.20% decline. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 252 tons, and that of LME zinc decreased by 175 tons [10]. - **News**: Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a preferential tariff rate. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [11]. Lead - **Core view**: The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan with a 0.43% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,037.5 dollars with a 2.81% decline. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 1,191 tons, and that of LME lead decreased by 5,050 tons [13]. - **News**: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump postponed the decision to use force against Iran [14]. Tin - **Core view**: Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan with a 6.41% decline, and the night - session price fell 8.42%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,708 dollars with a 9.60% decline. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 64 tons, and that of LME tin increased by 10 tons [17]. - **News**: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries, and France may use EU anti - coercion tools [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core view**: Aluminum is grinding at a high level, alumina is in a resonant decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,925 yuan with a 450 - yuan decline. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 3,129 dollars with a 43 - dollar decline. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan with a 38 - yuan decline. The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 22,735 yuan with a 420 - yuan decline [20]. - **News**: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core view**: Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Market data**: No specific price data provided. - **News**: China will expand both exports and imports during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. US - led coalition fighter jets flew over the conflict area in northern Syria [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core view**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,350 yuan with a 5,400 - yuan decline. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan with a 140 - yuan decline. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan [26]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [26][27].

来源：滚动播报 美国财长贝森特：我们有四位优秀的美联储主席人选。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken a significant turn, with President Trump expressing a preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, rather than moving to the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - Kevin Hassett was previously considered a strong candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, but Trump's recent comments suggest he may prefer Hassett to stay in his current role [2][5]. - Following Trump's remarks, Kevin Walsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a probability of 59% for his appointment, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 14% [3]. - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has narrowed the candidates down to four, with an announcement expected before or after the upcoming Davos Forum [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar index rebounded after Trump's comments, while U.S. stock indices collectively fell, reversing earlier gains [1][3]. - Spot gold and silver prices experienced sharp declines, with gold dropping by as much as 1.72% and silver falling by 6% during the trading day [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently facing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to support a weak job market, while others suggest maintaining the current rates due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [6]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6].

下一任美联储主席人选突生变数。 华尔街分析师指出，这是特朗普在美联储主席人选问题上的重大转向，哈塞特此前是其重点考虑的人选之一。在特朗普发表相关 言论后，前美联储理事凯文·沃什跃升为角逐美联储主席的最热门人选。 受此影响，美元指数直线拉升，从盘中低点反弹、小幅走高；美股三大指数则集体跳水，均由涨转跌；现货黄金、白银亦直线跳 水，日内最大跌幅分别为1.72%、6%。 美东时间1月16日，美国总统特朗普在白宫活动中称赞其经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示，在考虑下一任美联储主席人选之际，他可 能更倾向于让哈塞特继续担任现有职务（国家经济委员会主任）。 特朗普最新发声 当地时间1月16日，特朗普表示，如果哈塞特离开其目前担任的白宫国家经济委员会（NEC）主任一职，将使政府失去一位在经济 议题上最有影响力的"发声者"之一。 在此之前，哈塞特一直被视为接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的热门人选。哈塞特还多次呼吁美联储大幅降息。 特朗普在白宫的一场活动中对哈塞特说道："说实话，我其实希望你继续留在现在的位置上。" 特朗普随后进一步解释称，如果让哈塞特出任美联储主席，意味着其将脱离白宫决策与对外沟通体系，而 ...

当地时间1月16日，特朗普表示更希望哈塞特"留任现值"。视频截图 特朗普随即注意到同样坐在前排的白宫办公厅主任苏珊·威尔斯，便又说道："苏珊，我们可不能失去 他。后续就看事情如何发展吧。" 当日晚些时候，当被问及是否已确定美联储主席人选时，特朗普回应："我心里已经有数了。"数周以 来，特朗普多次发表类似言论，暗示自己已选定美联储主席最终人选。 据《华尔街日报》报道，当地时间1月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，他或许会让白宫国家经济委员会主 任凯文·哈塞特留任现职。此前，哈塞特曾一度被认为是继任美联储主席的最热门人选。 当日，特朗普在白宫的一场医疗健康活动上发表讲话，对坐在前排的哈塞特近期的一次电视出镜表现称 赞有加。他对哈塞特说："说实话，我其实希望你继续留任原职。" 特朗普笑着补充道："哈塞特非常优秀。我在想，要是我把他调走，美联储那帮人，尤其是我们现在的 这位主席，向来沉默寡言。那样我就失去你这个得力助手了，这是我非常在意的事。" 特朗普的此番表态，进一步加剧了外界对于他将提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下一届美联储主席的 猜测。上周，特朗普透露，当前正考虑在现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期于5月届满后，从"两位凯文 ...