Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange is seen as an excellent venue for public funds to demonstrate active management capabilities and create alpha, according to Gu Xinfeng, who recently achieved the third place among A-share funds this year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquidity of the North Exchange is improving, leading to a stronger willingness among quality companies to list on this platform [1] - Despite some stocks being relatively expensive, the large base of the New Third Board provides a continuous influx of new opportunities for the market [1]

Core Insights - Paychex reported a nearly 10% decline in stock price following the announcement of its Q4 FY'25 results, despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to $1.43 billion and adjusted earnings increasing by 6% to $1.19 per share [2] - The company's FY'26 guidance of 16.5% to 18.5% revenue growth was below market expectations, contributing to investor disappointment [2] - Challenges include integration issues from the recent acquisition of Paycor and rising interest costs from debt incurred for the acquisition, along with the negative impact of the conclusion of the Employee Retention Tax Credit program [2] Financial Performance - Paychex's revenues have shown modest growth, with a 4.3% increase from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion over the last year, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues rose by 4.8% to $1.5 billion in the latest quarter, matching the S&P 500's improvement [8] - The company has an average annual growth rate of 6.6% over the past three years, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% [7] Profitability Metrics - Paychex's net income for the last four quarters was $1.7 billion, resulting in a net income margin of 32.0%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 11.6% [9] - The operating income for the last four quarters was $2.3 billion, reflecting a high operating margin of 41.5% [15] - Operating cash flow during this period was $1.8 billion, indicating a strong operating cash flow margin of 32.7% compared to the S&P 500's 14.9% [15] Financial Stability - Paychex's debt stood at $864 million, with a market capitalization of $50 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6% compared to the S&P 500's 19.4% [10] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $1.6 billion, contributing to a cash-to-assets ratio of 14.3% out of total assets of $11 billion [10] Valuation Comparison - Paychex's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 10.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 3.1 [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 34.3 compared to 20.9 for the S&P 500, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 31.6 versus 26.9 for the benchmark [7][4] - The elevated valuation of Paychex stock raises concerns about its upside potential in the short to medium term [14]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0623-0627） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月28日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月27日 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表6、7：创业板/沪深300相对PE(TTM)、中证500/沪深300相对PE(TTM) 6 6 2.45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010-07 201 ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx's stock experienced a 6% decline in after-market trading following its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, despite surpassing consensus estimates, due to a cautious outlook for the upcoming quarter [2][6] Financial Performance - FedEx reported Q4 revenue of $22.2 billion, matching the prior-year quarter and exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.8 billion [3] - The package segment saw a 5% increase in volume, while composite package yield decreased slightly by 0.4% [3] - Freight volume declined significantly by 15%, although composite freight yield rose by 3% [3] - The adjusted operating margin improved by 600 basis points to 9.1%, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $6.07 from $5.41 in the previous year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.86 [5] Guidance and Outlook - FedEx's guidance for Q1 FY2026 indicates revenue growth of flat to 2% year-over-year, slightly better than street estimates of a 0.1% decline [6] - The company forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $3.40 and $4.00, below the consensus estimate of $4.06 [6] - FedEx plans an additional $1 billion in cost-cutting measures for FY2026, building on $4 billion in savings already achieved [6] Valuation Analysis - FedEx's stock is currently trading around $215, with a trailing adjusted P/E ratio of 12x, lower than its five-year average of 16x, suggesting potential for growth [7] - The separation of the freight business is expected to unlock shareholder value and enhance focus on core parcel delivery operations [8] - The stock appears slightly undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term gains [8]

证券研究报告 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月20日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0616-0620） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月21日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 2 目录 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 40 50 60 15.17 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries stock is considered an attractive investment opportunity at its current price of approximately $100, primarily due to its low valuation compared to its operational performance and financial health [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - CF Industries' stock appears inexpensive when compared to the S&P 500 based on cost per dollar of sales or profit [4]. - The company has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.6, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 6.6, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8, all of which are lower than the S&P 500 averages of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7]. Revenue Performance - CF Industries has experienced a contraction in revenues at an average rate of 5.6% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 saw an increase of 5.5% [6]. - The company's revenues increased by 0.7% from $6.1 billion to $6.1 billion in the past 12 months, compared to a growth of 5.5% for the S&P 500 [6]. - Quarterly revenues rose by 13.1% to $1.7 billion from $1.5 billion a year prior, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.8% improvement [6]. Profitability Metrics - CF Industries boasts significantly higher profit margins than most companies in the Trefis coverage spectrum [6]. - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $1.9 billion, with an operating margin of 30.7%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [8]. - CF Industries' operating cash flow (OCF) was $2.4 billion, indicating a high OCF margin of 39.4%, versus 14.9% for the S&P 500 [8]. - The net income for the last four quarters was $1.3 billion, reflecting a net income margin of 21.8%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [8]. Financial Stability - CF Industries has a debt figure of $3.3 billion and a market capitalization of $17 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 20.8%, slightly higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [9]. - The company holds $1.4 billion in cash (including cash equivalents) out of $13 billion in total assets, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 10.6%, compared to 13.8% for the S&P 500 [9]. Downturn Resilience - CF stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during several recent downturns, including a 49.1% decline during the inflation shock of 2022 compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [11]. - During the COVID pandemic in 2020, CF stock fell 55.7%, while the S&P 500 experienced a 33.9% decline [11]. - In the global financial crisis of 2008, CF stock dropped 76.8%, compared to a 56.8% decline for the S&P 500 [12]. Overall Assessment - CF Industries' performance across various parameters indicates a very low valuation, making the stock an attractive investment choice [12]. - The company is rated as neutral in growth, very strong in profitability, strong in financial stability, and very weak in downturn resilience [14].

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials stock is currently considered unattractive due to high valuation and weak operational performance [2][11] Valuation Comparison - MP Materials has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 20.9, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ratio of 3.0 [4] Revenue Performance - MP Materials' revenues have contracted at an average rate of 15.3% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 increased by 5.5% [5] - Revenues rose by 4.6% from $206 million to $216 million in the past 12 months, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [5] - Quarterly revenues increased by 24.9% to $61 million from $49 million a year prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% improvement [5] Profitability Metrics - MP Materials reported an operating income of $-166 million, resulting in an operating margin of -77.0%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [6] - The operating cash flow (OCF) was $-8.7 million, indicating an OCF margin of -4.0%, against 14.9% for the S&P 500 [6] - Net income was $-105 million, leading to a net income margin of -48.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [7] Financial Stability - MP Materials had a debt of $916 million with a market capitalization of $4.5 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 20.3%, slightly higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [8] - Cash and cash equivalents accounted for $759 million of total assets of $2.4 billion, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 32.1%, compared to 13.8% for the S&P 500 [8] Downturn Resilience - MP stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a notable drop of 50.2% from a high of $49.44 on March 2, 2021, to $24.61 on May 13, 2021, while the S&P 500 dropped 25.4% [10] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by January 4, 2022, but currently trades at approximately $27 [10][11] Overall Assessment - MP Materials is assessed as follows: Growth - Neutral, Profitability - Extremely Weak, Financial Stability - Very Strong, Downturn Resilience - Very Weak, Overall - Weak [13]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has significantly underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with a nearly 30% decline over the past year, while the S&P 500 increased by 12% [2] Financial Performance - UPS's revenues have slightly decreased over recent years, with a 1.3% increase from $90 billion to $91 billion in the last 12 months, contrasting with a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $8.5 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 9.4%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 13.2% [12] - UPS's net income for the last four quarters was $5.9 billion, indicating a net income margin of 6.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Metrics - UPS has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 9.0, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.1, all significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratios of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7] - The current valuation of UPS stock is approximately $98, with an estimated potential upside to $124 per share, indicating over 25% upside potential [10] Market Position and Strategy - UPS's strategic decision to minimize lower-margin Amazon deliveries aims to enhance profitability, although new tariffs may increase costs and potentially decrease shipping volumes, particularly in international trade [2] - Despite operational challenges, UPS stock is viewed as an appealing buying opportunity due to its low valuation, which reflects the already apparent difficulties [3] Resilience and Stability - UPS's balance sheet appears solid, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 31.1% compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500 [12] - The stock has shown slightly better resilience during downturns compared to the S&P 500, indicating a degree of stability in challenging market conditions [9]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0603-0606） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月7日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月6日 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 图表4、5：上证指数、沪深300、创业板指等指数PE(TTM，剔除负值) 12.68 11.88 5 10 15 20 25 2010-01 2012-01 2014-01 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' stock is significantly overvalued despite some growth, with concerns regarding profitability and performance during downturns [3][10]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q1, Ollie's reported a 13% year-over-year increase in sales to $577 million, which was below market expectations, raising concerns about demand consistency [4]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.75, exceeding analyst expectations by 6%, indicating improved cost controls or margin expansion [4]. - The operating margin decreased to 9.7% from 11.1% year-over-year, yet management maintained full-year adjusted EPS guidance at $3.70 [4]. - Same-store sales increased by 2.6%, matching the previous year's pace [4]. Valuation Metrics - Ollie's price-to-sales ratio is 3.1, slightly above the S&P 500's 3.0, while the price-to-free cash flow ratio stands at 30.8 compared to the S&P's 20.5 [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 is significantly higher than the benchmark's 26.4, suggesting that investors are overvaluing the company's performance [5]. Profitability Profile - Revenue growth has been respectable, with a 9.1% annual increase over the past three years, reaching $2.3 billion in the last twelve months [6]. - Operating margin is at 11.0%, below the S&P 500's 13.2%, and the operating cash flow margin is at 10.0%, compared to the index's 14.9% [6]. - The net income margin of 8.8% also falls short of the S&P's 11.6%, positioning Ollie's among the weaker performers in the Trefis coverage universe [6]. Financial Stability - Ollie's balance sheet is strong, with $648 million in debt against a market capitalization of $7 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.7%, well below the S&P 500's 19.9% [7]. - The cash-to-assets ratio is consistent with the broader index, but does not alleviate concerns regarding weak profitability and high valuation [8]. Downturn Performance - Ollie's stock has shown poor resilience during economic downturns, with a 64.2% decline during the 2022 inflation shock compared to a 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 [9]. - During the 2020 COVID market crash, Ollie's stock fell 46.2%, while the broader index declined by 33.9% [9].