普来仕环球及日本股票投资组合专家Daniel Hurley分享其对日本股市的观点。自4月解放日后，日本股 市录得显著升幅，多个因素推动市场表现。首要及最重要的因素是日本与美国达成的贸易协议，关税定 于15%，这远低于此前威胁加征的25%，更令市场感意外的是，占美国对日贸易逆差八成的汽车业亦获 纳入协议范围。 另一方面，市场憧憬美联储于今秋减息，料可利好风险资产表现。日本作为高度开放及具周期性的经济 体系，可望受惠于利率下调环境。 此外，日本本土经济正摆脱失落年代的零通胀及零增长困局，通胀压力逐步形成，经济增长步伐加快。 预料此转变将刺激储户及投资者将资产由现金及定息工具转移至股票市场。值得一提的是，自2012年起 持续改善的企业管治改革正全速推进，大规模股份回购计划陆续展开。这为能够识别具吸引力目标的投 资者创造庞大机遇，有望带来可观回报。 尽管如此，相对历史水平，日本股票的估值并未见过度扩张，较环球其他市场仍见吸引。普来仕对日本 市场未来三至五年维持建设性看法，认为仍存在重大投资机遇。除上述因素外，日本在国防及半导体产 业的结构性投资方面具优势。 企业管治改革趋势正影响股市各大领域，但部分行业的改革意欲明显 ...

Group 1 - In July, five best-performing S&P 500 stocks gained between 24% and 36%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 2% return [3][7] - The five stocks included Generac, Invesco, Norwegian Cruise Line, AES, and GE Vernova, with GE Vernova showing a 61% gain year-to-date in the first half of 2025 [3][7] - Stock performance over a single month is not a reliable indicator for future performance, as short time horizons diminish the correlation between business results and stock prices [8][12] Group 2 - A study by Boston Consulting Group indicates that stock valuation is a major factor in single-year performance, and short-term thinking increases the importance of valuation [9][10] - Investor sentiment plays a significant role in stock valuations, as demonstrated by Nvidia's fluctuating valuation based on market perception [10][12] - Companies should focus on business fundamentals rather than short-term stock movements, as these fundamentals are better indicators of future performance [14][16] Group 3 - Invesco's recent success is attributed to a strategic change in its ETF structure, which could enhance profitability and long-term stock performance [15][16] - Embracing market volatility is essential for long-term investment success, as it prevents investors from making impulsive decisions during market fluctuations [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - Baxter International's stock has declined by 14% over the past month due to a disappointing earnings report and reduced full-year guidance, raising questions about its current valuation at approximately $25 [2] Financial Performance - Baxter's revenues have contracted at an average of 5.7% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 has seen a growth of 5.3% [6] - In the last 12 months, revenues rose by 3.6% to $11 billion, compared to a 5.2% increase for the S&P 500 [6] - Quarterly revenues grew by 4.3% to $2.8 billion from $2.7 billion a year earlier, while the S&P 500 experienced a 6.1% growth [6] Profitability Metrics - Baxter's operating income for the last four quarters was $398 million, resulting in a poor operating margin of 3.7%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.8% [5] - The company's operating cash flow totaled $765 million, yielding a low cash flow margin of 7.0% compared to 20.2% for the S&P 500 [12] - Baxter reported a net income of -$155 million, translating into a negative net margin of -1.4%, while the S&P 500 had a net margin of 12.8% [12] Valuation Analysis - Baxter's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1.2, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratio of 3.3, indicating that Baxter stock appears inexpensive relative to the broader market [3] - The stock is currently valued at 1.3 times trailing revenue, well below its five-year average of 2.6 times, suggesting that the market has already factored in its performance challenges [9] Financial Stability - Baxter's balance sheet is described as adequate, with total debt standing at $9.7 billion against a market cap of $13 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 77.2% compared to the S&P 500's 20.2% [12] - Cash and equivalents amount to $1.7 billion out of total assets of $21 billion, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 8.0%, which is slightly above the S&P 500's 7.0% [12] Downturn Resilience - Baxter's stock has performed slightly better than the S&P 500 during some recent downturns, indicating moderate resilience [8] - The stock has experienced significant declines in the past, including a 64.6% drop from $89.45 in February 2022 to $31.71 in October 2023, compared to a 25.4% drop for the S&P 500 [12]

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group's stock is poised for a potential rebound, with a target price of $600 based on operational recovery and historical earnings multiples, following Warren Buffett's endorsement which has renewed investor confidence [2][10][14]. Financial Performance - Current stock price is around $300, with a trailing earnings multiple of 12x compared to a historical average of 25x [14]. - Earnings guidance for 2025 has been cut to $16 per share, but there is optimism for a recovery to $24 per share in 2026, which is above the current consensus of $19 [3][4]. Operational Recovery Catalysts - Medical cost stabilization is crucial, as the medical cost ratio has worsened by 430 basis points to 89.4% [5]. - Premium rate increases are expected as medical inflation becomes more predictable, allowing for better pricing of future policies [5]. - Provider contract renegotiations can leverage UnitedHealth's scale to secure better rates [5]. - Enhanced utilization management strategies can help control unnecessary spending while maintaining quality [5]. - Growth in the Optum segment, which has higher margins, is anticipated to offset pressures from the insurance side [5][6]. Revenue Growth Foundation - UnitedHealth is not facing revenue growth challenges, with strong demand driven by an aging population and increased utilization [9]. - The Medicare Advantage segment continues to expand, providing a solid foundation for margin recovery [9]. Multiple Expansion Drivers - If UnitedHealth achieves $24 in earnings and a 25x multiple, the stock could reach $600, while a more conservative 20x multiple suggests a target of $480, indicating significant upside potential [8][10]. Investor Confidence and Market Dynamics - Restored investor confidence is expected as costs stabilize and earnings visibility improves, potentially leading to higher multiples [14]. - The involvement of Berkshire Hathaway adds credibility and may attract institutional investors [14]. - Sustaining and growing dividends during recovery would signal confidence and attract income-focused investors [14]. Key Risks - Extended medical cost pressures and regulatory headwinds could hinder margin restoration [15]. - Competitive dynamics and economic downturns may also pose risks to pricing and growth [15].

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 16.41, with a median of 13.44 and a maximum of 30.60[14] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 24.73, indicating a higher valuation in these sectors[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.16, while the ChiNext Index stands at 38.86[10] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.54, with a median of 10.26 and a maximum of 22.67[62] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.77, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[66] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 28.59, with a median of 20.94 and a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 41.18, indicating a high valuation compared to other indices[92] Industry-Specific Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has a low PE (TTM) of 13.00, while the technology sector has a high PE (TTM) of 99.30[24] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector has a high PE (TTM) of 63.62, indicating strong investor interest[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected corporate earnings results[105] - Market volatility and geopolitical events are also highlighted as significant risks[105]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the experience of the analyst in leading teams for model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, showcasing a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The collaboration between the analyst and their research partner aims to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights, focusing on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The analyst has over 20 years of experience, indicating a deep understanding of the investment landscape and the ability to identify high-growth opportunities [1] - The approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, which is crucial for investors looking to outperform the market [1] - The focus on financial statement analysis and corporate earnings suggests a thorough examination of company performance metrics, which is essential for making informed investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock market has declined for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns among investors about high valuations amid upcoming retail earnings reports and a central bank conference [1] Market Performance - S&P 500 index fell by 0.7% and Nasdaq dropped over 1% [1] Valuation Concerns - Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, stated that stock valuations are expensive compared to fundamentals [1] - The market has not experienced a significant correction in 16 years, leading to a tendency among investors to overlook potential market adjustments [1] Consumer Spending Pressure - Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management, reported that consumer spending is under pressure due to several factors, including slowing job growth, the resumption of student loan repayments, and an increase in eviction rates, which reduces the consumer base [1]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent reduction in its stake in Apple has attracted significant market attention, interpreted as a rational move for risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish signal [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The sale contradicts Buffett's investment principle of "hold means buy, sell means bearish," suggesting that any sell decision indicates a less favorable risk-reward ratio for the asset at current prices [2][4] - Selling part of a position implies that the investor believes the stock's attractiveness has diminished compared to other potential investments [3][4] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The sale is viewed as a portfolio rebalancing action due to Apple's significant share in Berkshire's holdings, which accounted for $66.639 billion or 25.8% of the portfolio [5][6] - Berkshire's total publicly traded stock holdings amount to over $250 billion, with substantial non-public assets, including insurance and utility companies, which are not detailed in the public market holdings [8][9] Group 3: Market Signals - Despite the small scale of the reduction, it signals potential concerns regarding Apple, especially when compared to other long-held positions like American Express and Coca-Cola, which have never been reduced [12][13] - Factors contributing to this concern include policy uncertainties and Apple's current valuation, which has risen significantly, reducing its attractiveness compared to historical levels [14][19][22] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's valuation has increased to a P/E ratio of 35, compared to 10-15 during Berkshire's initial investment, leading to lower expected future returns and increased sensitivity to negative news [21][22] - The company's market share in the U.S. smartphone market has fluctuated, indicating potential limits to its growth, which may not justify its high valuation [23][24]

A-shares Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 15.88, with a median of 13.44 and a maximum of 30.60[10] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 13.72, while the CSI 300 is at 12.76[10] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 49.11, indicating a growth-oriented market segment[10] Hong Kong Stocks Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.52, with a median of 10.26 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher PE (TTM) of 21.94, reflecting the tech sector's growth potential[62] US Stocks Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 26.87, with a median of 20.86 and a maximum of 41.99[78] - The NASDAQ Index has a PE (TTM) of 40.41, indicating a strong valuation in the tech-heavy index[80] Sector-Specific Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) of 18.30, while the computer sector is at a high of 92.02[24] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.60, indicating undervaluation compared to historical averages[27] Comparative Analysis - Chinese banks have a median PB of 0.92, while US banks like JPMorgan Chase have a median PB of 1.32, showing a valuation gap[99] - Key Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba have a median PS of 7.46, while JD.com is at 5.51, reflecting varying market sentiments[95]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway sold 20 million shares of Apple in Q2, reducing its holdings to 280 million shares valued at $57.4 billion, marking the first sale since Q3 2024 [1] - Apple remains the largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, accounting for 22.31% of total holdings, despite a significant drop in its stock price, which has fallen over 30% since the end of 2024 [2] - Buffett has been selling Apple shares to lock in substantial profits and bolster a cash reserve exceeding $340 billion [7] Group 2 - Berkshire initiated new positions in several companies, including Anixter, Lamar Advertising, Horton Homes, UnitedHealth, Nucor Steel, and Lennar [10] - The company increased its stakes in Chevron, Pool Corporation, and Constellation Brands, while reducing its position in Bank of America and completely exiting T-Mobile US [10] - Following the disclosure of the 13F filing, shares of UnitedHealth rose over 10% in after-hours trading, with other newly acquired stocks also experiencing gains [11]