Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold and silver prices have temporarily eased due to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is seen as a significant step towards ending the ongoing conflict [3] - The agreement, facilitated by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, includes the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, leading to a reduction in market risk aversion and downward pressure on precious metal prices [3] - The strong rise of the US dollar index to a nine-week high, alongside a decline in oil prices and stable US 10-year Treasury yields, has further compounded the pressure on gold and silver prices [3] Group 2 - Despite a short-term technical correction in precious metals, the overall bullish trend remains intact, indicating that gold and silver are still in an accelerating "mature bull market" [4] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices reflects investor demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, as well as a reassessment of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy [4] - The alternating dominance of risk appetite and risk aversion suggests that gold and silver prices may maintain a high volatility pattern, with profit-taking becoming a regular occurrence [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline on October 10, influenced by a drop in the U.S. stock market and profit-taking by investors [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 1.01%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index fell by 1.85% [1] - The Nikkei index dropped by 491.64 points, ending at 48,088.80 points; the Tokyo Stock Exchange index decreased by 60.18 points, closing at 3,197.59 points [1] Sector Analysis - Almost all 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with the securities and commodity futures trading, mining, and petroleum and coal products sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - The retail sector was an exception, supported by a more than 6% increase in the stock price of Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, due to strong performance [1]

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价9日下跌1.95%，收于每盎司3991.10美 元。 现货黄金和白银均创下历史新高，引发短期期货交易员获利回吐和多头平仓，导致黄金、白银价格当日 大跌。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新数据，巴西央行9月份购买近16吨黄金，其黄金持有量目前总计145 吨。 以色列与哈马斯达成协议，释放哈马斯在加沙地带扣押的所有人质，以哈双方朝着结束两年战争迈出了 重要一步。地缘政治危机缓解也打压金价。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格跌2.73%，收于每盎司47.66美元。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 央行需求是金价突破每盎司4000美元历史高位的关键因素。市场分析人士认为，尽管金价上涨可能导致 需求放缓，但随着更多央行进入市场，金价上涨趋势不会很快消失。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头拥有强劲技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是突破4100美元坚固阻力 价位。空头的下一个下行价格目标是跌破3850美元的坚固技术支撑价位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market experienced a significant decline, with the December 2025 gold price dropping by 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce, influenced by profit-taking and geopolitical developments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The spot prices for gold and silver reached historical highs, leading to short-term traders taking profits and closing long positions, which resulted in a sharp decline in prices [1] - The December silver futures price fell by 2.73%, closing at $47.66 per ounce [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - A key factor in the decline of gold prices was the agreement between Israel and Hamas to release hostages, signaling a potential easing of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Central Bank Demand - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Brazil's central bank purchased nearly 16 tons of gold in September, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons [1] - Central bank demand is identified as a crucial factor for gold prices to surpass the historical high of $4000 per ounce, with analysts suggesting that the upward trend in gold prices is unlikely to fade quickly despite potential demand slowdown [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The December gold futures market shows strong technical advantages for bulls, with the next upward target set at breaking the solid resistance level of $4100, while bears aim to break the solid support level of $3850 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to profit-taking after reaching historical highs, alongside the impact of a rising U.S. dollar index and falling oil prices [1]. Market Performance - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3,880.80 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.43% [1]. - Silver futures for December delivery settled at $46.87 per ounce, down 1.70% [1]. Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second day, with significant implications including the suspension of $18 billion in infrastructure funding and potential layoffs of thousands of federal workers [1]. - Economists warn that large-scale layoffs could undermine corporate confidence and reduce capital investment, contributing to market risk aversion [1]. Investment Outlook - Despite a year-to-date increase of over 40% in gold prices, analysts believe gold still offers substantial value as it is viewed as the only asset capable of maintaining purchasing power [1]. - There is a bullish sentiment for gold in the last quarter of 2025, with potential prices reaching $4,000 per ounce [1].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of base metals on the London Metal Exchange generally declined on the 19th, influenced by ongoing trade and diplomatic uncertainties affecting demand expectations, as well as cautious market sentiment following interest rate cuts [1]. Price Summary - Three-month copper closed at $9,996.50 per ton, up $50.50 from the previous trading day, with a rise of 0.51% [1]. - Three-month aluminum closed at $2,676.00 per ton, down $29.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 1.07% [1]. - Three-month nickel closed at $15,270.00 per ton, down $65.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.42% [1]. - Three-month lead closed at $2,003.00 per ton, down $1.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.05% [1]. - Three-month tin closed at $34,220.00 per ton, up $470.00 from the previous trading day, with a rise of 1.39% [1]. - Three-month zinc closed at $2,898.50 per ton, down $14.50 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.50% [1]. Market Influences - The decline in base metal prices is attributed to mixed supply and demand signals, changing central bank policy expectations (particularly from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan), and profit-taking following recent price increases [1]. - Only metals with limited supply or those less affected by demand concerns managed to maintain stable prices, while others experienced declines [1].

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $23.3 to close at $2586.9 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.91% [1] - The trade tensions between China and the United States may ease, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [1] - The new Canada-Mexico Action Plan aims to expand bilateral trade in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, as announced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [1] Group 2 - Swiss customs data revealed that gold exports to the United States nearly halted in August, with a decline of over 99% compared to July, amounting to only 0.3 tons [1] - The cautious restart of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle has led to a partial weakening of gold price momentum, although analysts believe gold prices remain strongly supported [1] - The December silver futures price decreased by $0.139, closing at $29.083 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.48% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a downward trend due to profit-taking, with current prices around $3645 per ounce after a significant drop from a historical high of $3707.40 per ounce [1][2][3]. Price Movement - On Thursday, gold closed at $3644.14 per ounce, down $15.82 or 0.43% from the previous trading day [2]. - The price had previously reached a high of $3707.40 per ounce on Wednesday before experiencing a rapid decline [3]. Market Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday was characterized by Chairman Powell as a "risk management" measure in response to a weakening labor market, which has created confusion and uncertainty in the market [3]. - This uncertainty contributed to profit-taking in the gold market, leading to the recent price declines [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are hovering around $3640 per ounce, with a short-term support level at $3626.66 per ounce. A break below this level could lead to further declines [4]. - The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending upwards at approximately $3547 per ounce, indicating a prevailing bullish trend despite the recent corrections [4]. - Short-term outlook appears bearish, with the 20-period SMA limiting upward movement around $3675.00 per ounce, and momentum indicators suggesting a potential for further declines [4]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels identified are $3626.70, $3611.70, and $3600.00 per ounce [5]. - Resistance levels are noted at $3655.90, $3675.00, and $3693.40 per ounce [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold experienced short - term profit - taking after the Fed's September rate cut, but maintains a long - term bullish outlook. The Fed's dot - plot shows a further 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, which, along with other factors, supports the mid - term upward momentum of gold prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further rate cuts for the rest of the year in response to concerns about the weakening job market [2]. - US President Trump paid a second state visit to the UK and praised the special relationship between the two countries [2]. - US Congressman John Moolenaar expressed concerns about the TikTok framework agreement between China and the US [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold has been oscillating in the range of 3,660 - 3,700 after the Fed's September rate cut. It has risen about 39% since the beginning of the year, and although there is short - term profit - taking, mid - term upward momentum remains [3]. - Driving factors include the Fed's expected 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, global central banks' continuous gold purchases, Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence, and escalating geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The global ETF gold holdings are still about 3,000 tons, with room to recover to the 2020 high of 3,500 tons [3]. - In the short term, focus on the 3500 - 3800 oscillation range, and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and weekly London silver spot in the range of [39, 45] [3]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities on September 18, 2025: the commodity 20 index was 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index was 2246.67, down 1.06% [42]. 3.5 Precious Metals Index - On September 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 2878.86, with a daily decline of 1.22%, a 5 - day decline of 1.53%, a 1 - month increase of 6.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.12% [44].

金价在周四走软，因在预期美国降息触及历史高位后遭遇获利了结，同时投资者期待本周将公布的美国 关键就业数据。现货 黄金日内最新下跌1%，跌至接近3510美元/盎司的位置。GoldSilver Central董事总 经理Brian Lan表示："我们看到了一些获利回吐，但目前黄金仍处于牛市。降息预期和对美联储独立性 的担忧将增加避险需求，即使金价在短期内升至3800美元甚至更高，我们也不会感到意外。" ...