美银策略师警告，美国股市创纪录的涨势已使其处于一个脆弱位置，一旦美联储在杰克逊霍尔全球央行 年会上释放鸽派信号，市场可能上演"买预期，卖事实"的行情，并引发一轮获利回吐。 这一警告发出之际，美股正处于历史高点。受科技权重股推动，标普500指数已反弹至历史新高，而本 周早些时候发布的温和消费价格通胀数据，进一步推高了市场对美联储9月降息的押注。 由Michael Hartnett领导的策略团队在一份报告中指出，投资者已大举涌入股票、加密货币和公司债券等 风险资产，其背后逻辑是押注美联储将降息以支撑趋弱的劳动力市场，并缓解美国的债务负担。 Hartnett写道，如果美联储主席鲍威尔在8月21日至23日于怀俄明州举行的会议上发表鸽派言论，股市反 而可能出现下滑，因为投资者会选择"借传闻买入，待事实兑现后卖出"。 市场已抢跑降息预期 尽管周四公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）显示通胀依然火热，导致市场削减了部分降息押注，但投资者 对美联储即将转向的预期仍然高涨。利率互换交易员目前认为9月份降息的可能性仍高达92%。 Hartnett的警告正是基于这种普遍的乐观情绪，即市场的积极预期可能已被股价充分消化，一旦利好兑 现，反 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent record rebound in the US stock market presents an excellent opportunity for profit-taking, especially if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Investors are increasingly moving into risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and corporate bonds, driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to support a weak labor market and alleviate the US debt burden [1] - The strategist Michael Hartnett warns that if Fed Chair Powell delivers dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, it could lead to a decline in the stock market, as investors tend to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" [1] Group 2 - Hartnett expresses a preference for international stocks over US stocks, a view that has proven correct this year [1] - There is a warning from Hartnett that the stock market may be forming a bubble, as investors seek to hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar [1] - Hartnett identifies gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets as potential big winners in the current economic climate [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Link REIT's operating data for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, ending June 30, fell slightly short of expectations [1] - Hong Kong tenant sales decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, an improvement from a 2.1% decline in the previous quarter, suggesting a trend towards stability in business [1] - The rental adjustment rate for lease renewals remains in the mid-single-digit negative range, similar to the 5% decline projected for the second half of the 2025 fiscal year, slightly below the management's guidance provided in May [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that Link REIT's stock price has risen by 36% year-to-date, compared to a 28% increase in the Hang Seng Index, indicating potential profit-taking in the short term [1] - The "overweight" rating is maintained, with the target price adjusted down from HKD 49 to HKD 48 [1] - The forecast for the distribution per unit (DPU) for the 2026 fiscal year has been reduced by 2%, now projecting a year-on-year decline of 4% [1]

摩根大通发布研报称，考虑到领展房产基金(00823)股价年初至今已累升36%，对比同期恒指升幅为约 28%，估计短期内或出现获利回吐的情况，目前维持"增持"评级，将2026财年每基金单位分派(DPU)预 测下降2%至同比跌4%，目标价相应由49港元下调至48港元。 小摩指，领展近日公布截至今年6月底止2026财年首季度经营数据，表现略逊预期，香港租户销售额同 比跌幅收窄至0.8%，对比上财季跌2.1%，反映业务正趋向稳定，但受跨境电商竞争加剧影响，短期出 现显著复苏的可能性较低。期内续租租金调整率维持中单位数负增长，与2025财年下半年下跌5%相 若，稍逊于管理层5月份业绩会提出的"低至中单位数百分比"指引。 ...

小摩指，领展近日公布截至今年6月底止2026财年首季度经营数据，表现略逊预期，香港租户销售额同 比跌幅收窄至0.8%，对比上财季跌2.1%，反映业务正趋向稳定，但受跨境电商竞争加剧影响，短期出 现显著复苏的可能性较低。期内续租租金调整率维持中单位数负增长，与2025财年下半年下跌5%相 若，稍逊于管理层5月份业绩会提出的"低至中单位数百分比"指引。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，考虑到领展房产基金(00823)股价年初至今已累升36%，对比 同期恒指升幅为约28%，估计短期内或出现获利回吐的情况，目前维持"增持"评级，将2026财年每基金 单位分派(DPU)预测下降2%至同比跌4%，目标价相应由49港元下调至48港元。 ...

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline on August 14, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.45% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index decreasing by 1.10% [1] - After two days of gains, profit-taking by investors dominated the market, leading to a slight opening decline [1] Index Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 625.41 points at 42649.26 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index ended down by 33.96 points at 3057.95 points [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with machinery, wholesale, and transportation machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - Conversely, seven sectors, including banking, electric and gas utilities, and information and communication, recorded gains [1] Currency Impact - The Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, which contributed to selling pressure on export-related stocks, notably affecting companies like Toyota [1]

花旗策略师称，纳斯达克头寸面临获利回吐的风险。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23892.32, down 1.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% to 5231.99 [3][4] - The trading volume for the day was 2338.78 million [4] Group 2: Economic Data - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending four consecutive months of deflation [7][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [7][8] Group 3: Company News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its real estate assets in mainland China, including landmark buildings in cities like Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, following a refinancing agreement [12] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation's renewable energy output in June decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a total output of 1403.5 GWh [11] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals announced a placement of 100 million new shares at a price of 4.72 HKD per share, raising 4.72 million HKD, with 90% of the proceeds allocated for further development of specific assets [13] Group 4: Sector Insights - Morgan Stanley indicated that Hong Kong real estate stocks have outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 8% since mid-June, suggesting potential profit-taking in the short term [9] - The report highlights that the issuance of convertible bonds by major developers could lead to a decrease in average financing costs, with Henderson Land's recent issuance being a key example [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Henderson Land Development (00012) plans to issue HKD 8 billion convertible bonds (CB), which is somewhat unexpected given the recent strong performance of its stock, as issuing CBs is not common for Hong Kong real estate companies [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The issuance of CBs is seen as a low-cost financing option with a coupon rate of 0.5%, potentially encouraging other developers to explore similar financing methods to lower their average cost of capital [1] - New World Development (00017) is identified as the company with the highest likelihood of a rights issue within the research scope [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Since mid-June, Hong Kong real estate stocks have outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 8% [1] - The recent CB issuance, along with rising Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), may trigger short-term profit-taking, particularly in Henderson Land [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley suggests buying stocks with clear catalysts, such as Swire Properties (01972) due to share buybacks and improvements in the Chinese retail sector, and Link REIT (00823) due to its inclusion in the Stock Connect and capital recycling [1] - For Henderson Land, after the market digests potentially weak performance in the first half of 2025 (with a projected 46% year-on-year decline in net profit due to a one-off project in the first half of 2024), the recommendation is to "buy" [1] - From a tactical perspective, Morgan Stanley sees upside potential in Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997), which has been upgraded to "overweight" due to a strengthening trend in retail sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi's quantitative strategists indicate that the risk of profit-taking in the Nasdaq 100 index is high due to heavy investor positioning in futures [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite ongoing global trade uncertainties, investors continue to build new long positions in U.S. stock indices [1] - The bullish momentum in the U.S. stock market persists following a week dominated by new risk capital inflows [1] Group 2: Regional Positioning - Investors maintain a neutral stance towards Europe, reflecting a lack of short-term confidence [1] - There has been a reduction in positions for the DAX and FTSE 100 indices, while European banks still show bullish positioning [1]