贸易制裁

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倒计时5天,印度继续进口俄石油,中方态度明确,普京打破沉默
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 23:14
近日,印度到底买不买俄石油成了美国的重点关注,如果印度不买俄油了,那么就证明印度害怕美国的二级关税,这也正是美国想要的。 但是印度官方的态度却打了特朗普的脸,称"没有向石油公司下达任何指示",也就是说,印度将继续进口俄罗斯石油。 与此同时,中方也给出了明确的态度,沉默已久的普京,终于发话了。 石油倒计时,特朗普的豪赌 特朗普这次威胁对购买俄油国家征收100%关税,不仅触碰到了俄罗斯的利益,也触碰到了与俄罗斯保持贸易往来国家的贸易。 其中,中国和印度作为俄罗斯的贸易伙伴,态度极为关键。对于中国,特朗普现在只敢威胁,不敢有什么实际行动。 毕竟中美的谈判还在持续,双方还在休战期,特朗普不敢轻易拿中国怎么样,否则中国再一招反制,美国可真就吃不消了。 那么,关于购买俄石油的二级关税,特朗普只能往印度施压。美国方面多次威胁印度,要印度停止进口俄石油,但前几日印度官方并没有对此进行回应。 然而前几日不知道从哪里传出来的消息称,印度一些炼油厂已经暂停进口俄石油。这一则消息,对各国对局势判断有着非常重要的作用。 如果印度暂停进口俄石油,就代表着印度开始向美国低头,一旦印度低头,这很容易就助长了特朗普的嚣张气焰。 再一个,印度低 ...
征收50%高额关税,制裁最高法院法官,美对巴西展开政经“双重打压”
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 22:31
Core Points - The U.S. has imposed a 40% tariff on Brazil, raising the total tariff to 50%, alongside sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Demorais, indicating a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions between the two countries [1][5] - Brazilian President Lula criticized the U.S. for interfering in Brazil's judicial matters and opposed the sanctions against Demorais, asserting Brazil's sovereignty [1][6] Tariff and Trade Impact - The new tariffs do not apply to many of Brazil's major exports to the U.S., such as commercial aircraft, energy products, and orange juice, with over 40% of Brazilian exports exempt from tariffs [3] - The U.S. is projected to have a trade surplus of $7 billion with Brazil in 2024, indicating that Brazil is not a trade deficit country for the U.S. [3] Sanctions Against Demorais - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Demorais, freezing his assets and prohibiting financial transactions with U.S. citizens and companies, citing his role in what they termed "witch hunts" against U.S. interests [4][5] - Demorais has been accused of human rights violations and political persecution related to former President Bolsonaro's legal troubles [4][5] Brazilian Government's Response - The Brazilian government views the U.S. trade measures as politically motivated and an infringement on its sovereignty, with officials asserting the need to maintain judicial independence [5][6] - Brazil's Foreign Minister reiterated the country's willingness to negotiate on tariff issues but emphasized that Bolsonaro's judicial case should not be part of those discussions [7] Political Context - Former President Trump has criticized the Brazilian judiciary's actions against Bolsonaro, framing them as a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy [5] - Lula has indicated that if Trump's threats materialize, Brazil is considering retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products [7]
原油成品油早报-20250731
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 12:38
Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The President of the European Commission will meet with Trump on Sunday, and Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an agreement. The market is also concerned about US sanctions on Russia, with Trump threatening sanctions if a cease - fire agreement is not reached within 10 days. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, US EIA commercial inventories decreased, diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, while diesel inventories in the US and China increased. European diesel cracks strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened quarter - on - quarter, limiting the scope for further increasing operations. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the impact of the peak season has been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventories [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US imposed the largest - scale sanctions on Iran since 2018, targeting over 50 entities and individuals and more than 50 oil tankers and container ships controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hussein Shamkhani [3]. - European natural gas prices neared a two - week high as US President Trump threatened to punish India for buying Russian energy, raising concerns about global supply. Trump increased pressure on Russia to reach a cease - fire in Ukraine, and traders expected the US to take action against Russian oil and gas buyers including India. Gas prices briefly dropped after Polish Prime Minister Tusk saw new prospects for Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine [4]. - Indian refiners asked the Indian government for clarification on whether their purchases of Russian crude would be affected by Trump's new social media post. Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US starting August 1, and warned of additional penalties due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy. Indian companies buy over 1 million barrels of Russian crude per day [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day [5]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In China, refinery output of gasoline and diesel decreased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined quarter - on - quarter [6].
中美新一轮谈判在即,华盛顿提前亮牌,这次还牵扯到俄罗斯和伊朗
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-26 03:36
Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin claims that U.S.-China trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, but the Trump administration prioritizes "quality" over urgency in signing an agreement [1] - Mnuchin threatens to include China's purchases of Russian and Iranian oil in the negotiation agenda, stating that China is a major buyer of sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil [1] - The U.S. strategy aims to pressure China by leveraging its significant oil imports from Russia, which account for 19.6% of China's total oil imports, with 84% of Russian oil exports going to China and India in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's approach appears contradictory, as it seeks to use tariffs to compel China to abandon Iranian and Russian oil while simultaneously expressing a desire for China to purchase more U.S. oil [2] - This inconsistency highlights Washington's strategic confusion, as it attempts to apply economic pressure while also coveting China's market purchasing power [2] - Mnuchin's introduction of new conditions for negotiations reflects an effort to add leverage, but tying energy security to trade negotiations is unlikely to succeed and reveals U.S. anxiety over its inability to solely rely on economic measures against China and Russia [2]
巴西在中国设特别机构?卢拉醉翁之意不在酒,他想要的是中国铁路
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 09:01
Core Insights - Brazil's establishment of a tax office in Beijing is a strategic move aimed at reshaping South America's geopolitical landscape and reducing U.S. influence [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. government, under Trump, threatened to increase tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%, which is a significant escalation [3][5] - This threat was intended to pressure Brazil, but instead, it strengthened President Lula's resolve to pursue an independent strategy [5][11] Group 2: Economic Strategy - The tax office is part of a broader strategy to attract Chinese investment and facilitate the ambitious "Two Oceans Railway" project, which aims to connect Brazil's Santos port to Peru's Pacific port [7][9] - The railway project is expected to generate over $100 billion in economic benefits annually and significantly alter trade routes in South America [9][12] Group 3: China-Brazil Cooperation - Brazil's trade with China reached $188.1 billion in 2024, compared to $92 billion with the U.S., indicating a shift towards deeper economic ties with China [13] - The establishment of the tax office signals Brazil's readiness to eliminate technical barriers for Chinese investment, enhancing cooperation [10][16] Group 4: Political Implications - The move to establish the tax office and pursue the railway project demonstrates Brazil's ambition to assert its leadership in South America and reduce dependency on U.S. trade routes [12][16] - However, Brazil faces internal political instability and external pressures from the U.S., which could impact the success of these initiatives [13][14]
美国威胁制裁买俄油国家,中方24小时强硬回应,态度有多坚决
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 01:20
Core Points - The upcoming US-China talks may address China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, as indicated by US Treasury Secretary Becerra [1] - The US government has threatened to impose a 100% punitive tariff on Russian goods if a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not reached within 50 days [1][8] - China's response to the US threats has been firm, emphasizing that trade negotiations should not be dictated by unilateral US demands [22][24] Group 1: US Policy and Strategy - The US has implemented a strategy of increasing tariffs to pressure countries, including allies, to comply with its demands [3][5] - Trump's administration has linked the oil issue to broader geopolitical strategies, using it as leverage in negotiations with China [18][20] - The US's approach has been characterized as hegemonic, disregarding the interests of other nations [16][24] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Trade - China is projected to import one-third of its oil from Russia in 2024, with 68% of transactions already settled in RMB, indicating significant economic implications if US tariffs are enacted [10][20] - India's energy security is also at risk, as Russian oil constitutes nearly 25% of its imports, forcing India to choose between economic repercussions or confrontation with the US [12][20] - The potential for increased oil prices and domestic inflation in China is a concern if the US follows through with its tariff plans [10][20] Group 3: China’s Response and Regional Cooperation - China has made it clear that it will not yield to US pressure regarding its energy partnerships with Russia and Iran, asserting its right to protect its national interests [22][24] - The cooperation between China, Russia, and India in energy projects is strengthening, with significant investments planned, such as India's $20 billion investment in Russian oil [28] - The ongoing development of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project between China and Russia is expected to continue despite external pressures [26][28]
没谈妥?对美反击轮番上演,关键时刻,俄罗斯两大弱点遭曝光
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 11:17
Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russian goods if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, impacting global trade dynamics [1][3] - This tariff threat extends to countries that trade with Russia or purchase Russian oil, indicating a broader strategy to exert pressure on Russia and reshape European positions in the conflict [3] Group 2: European Reactions - European countries have shown mixed responses to the U.S. tariff threat, with the Dutch Prime Minister expressing willingness to support U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Germany has delayed its energy sanctions against Russia [3] - Previous U.S. sanctions have already caused significant losses in the European automotive industry, amounting to over €12 billion, with German car inventories increasing by 47% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Russia's Countermeasures - In response to U.S. actions, Russia is diversifying its energy exports, aiming to increase oil exports to China to 800,000 barrels per day and restarting discounted oil exports to India, with daily volumes exceeding 1.2 million barrels [4][6] - Russia's military continues to demonstrate strong capabilities on the battlefield, despite facing challenges such as manpower shortages and economic pressures [4][6] Group 4: Economic Challenges for Russia - Russia's economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, which account for nearly 30% of its federal budget, and has seen a 45% drop in energy export revenues due to U.S. tariffs and previous sanctions [6] - The ruble has experienced significant depreciation, falling below 100 to 1 USD, and despite the Central Bank's efforts to lower interest rates to 20%, economic instability persists [6] Group 5: Global Implications - The tariff conflict between the U.S. and Russia has broader implications for global political and economic landscapes, with the U.S. facing potential loss of international credibility if it fails to compel Russia to comply [8] - Russia must navigate the dual challenges of manpower shortages and economic strain while maintaining domestic stability and its international stance [8]
特朗普发威胁后,俄方回应:耍花招、放空炮
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-15 05:40
俄联邦委员会(议会上院)副主席科萨切夫认为,特朗普有关俄罗斯的最新声明属于"放空炮"。 就特朗普威胁对俄征收100%的关税,俄国家杜马国防委员会第一副主席茹拉夫廖夫说,这首先将对美 国经济产生负面影响。 "不得不让美国总统失望——目前我们与美国几乎没有任何贸易往来,贸易额只有80亿美元。与此同 时,美国从俄罗斯购买铀、钛和钯,这些都是美国经济的必需品。这些金属价格的上涨将影响美国经 济。"茹拉夫廖夫对俄罗斯"报纸网"说。 特朗普14日在白宫说,"我们对(俄罗斯)非常、非常不满意。如果我们在50天内没有达成协议,我们 将征收非常严厉的关税。税率约为100%。"特朗普接着提到要征收次级关税。一名白宫官员稍后向媒体 记者解释说,特朗普的意思是,如果俄乌50天内达不成协议,美国将对俄罗斯征收100%的关税,对购 买俄罗斯石油等商品的国家征收次级关税。 新华财经北京7月15日电 美国总统特朗普14日威胁对俄罗斯征收"非常严厉"的关税并表示将通过北约向 乌克兰提供军事援助。俄方人士认为,美方表态是"耍花招""放空炮",其关税措施将首先损害美国经 济。 俄国家杜马(议会下院)国际事务委员会主席斯卢茨基14日对俄新社说,美国 ...
据英国金融时报:欧盟计划根据贸易法禁止签订新的俄罗斯天然气合同。
news flash· 2025-06-16 09:28
Group 1 - The European Union plans to prohibit the signing of new natural gas contracts with Russia based on trade law [1]
进出口点评报告:外部环境大变局下,贸易国别结构变化显著
Bei Da Guo Min Jing Ji Yan Jiu Zhong Xin· 2025-06-12 02:05
Export Performance - In May 2025, China's total export value reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 30.7%, worsening by 11.5 percentage points compared to April[7] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and automobiles, showed notable growth, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 33.4% year-on-year[19] Import Performance - In May 2025, China's total import value was $212.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[20] - Imports from the United States decreased by 18.13%, while imports from the European Union saw a marginal decline of 0.05%[20] - The demand for traditional bulk commodities continued to decline, with iron ore and crude oil imports showing negative growth rates of -5.2% and 0.3%, respectively[21] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.2 billion, indicating a decrease from the previous month's surplus of $106.8 billion[7] - The overall trade volume in May 2025 was $528.98 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex, with potential risks and opportunities for trade growth in 2025[23] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth may support a gradual recovery in import growth, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market[23]