热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 橡胶： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价重心继续回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.14美元至55.99美元/桶，跌幅2.00%。布伦特3月合 约收盘下跌0.74美元至59.96美元/桶，跌幅1.22%。SC2602以415.5元/桶收盘，下跌9.3元/桶，跌幅为 2.19%。美国已达成一项进口价值最高20亿美元委内瑞拉原油的协议，此举预计将增加全球最大石油消 费国的原油供应量，受此消息影响，国际油价于周三下跌。美国与委内瑞拉政府达成的这项协议，初期 或要求原本运往中国的原油船货改变航线。自去年12月中旬以来，因特朗普政府实施出口封锁，委内瑞 拉数百万桶已装载至油轮及储存在油罐中的原油一直无法运出。当前来看，从委内瑞拉原油的量及运输 流向上来看，矛盾在于量未来只增不减，而贸易流向则是西升东降，国内需要关注的是折价油种的替 代，以及能源的溢出效应，传导到电力端。海上航运当前也面临冲击，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发 布消息称，在北大西洋扣押了一艘俄罗斯油轮。随后，美国南方司令部也在社交媒 ...

俄罗斯向匈牙利等国出口石油的"德鲁日巴"管道突发大规模爆炸。 与之前不一样的是，这一次起火的地点则在乌克兰境内。 《开源情报防御者》报道，当地时间12月29日晚，乌克兰西部外喀尔巴阡州传出巨响，罗索什附近 的"德鲁日巴"管道被点燃。 从现场陆续传出的视频看，这一片已被熊熊火光包围，夜晚照耀得如同白昼。 画面中可以发现管道中心区域更是喷出了数十米高的火球，在几十公里外都清晰可见。 目前起火原因还未知，长期以来俄罗斯都通过该管道向欧洲出口石油，主要就是供应匈牙利和斯洛伐 克。 基于和欧盟的战略考量，乌克兰一直没有彻底炸毁这条管道，这实际上也掐住了匈斯两国的能源大动 脉。 众所周知，匈牙利和斯洛伐克这两个亲俄国家对莫斯科的石油是高度依赖的。他们也始终在阻挠欧盟对 基辅的援助。 但这种"战略考量"并非是不可打破的，如今欧洲也快对这两国失去了耐心，开始考虑在很多涉及俄乌的 议题上绕过它们。 与此同时，乌克兰对俄罗斯境内的能源攻势还在升级。据悉，12月25日圣诞节当天遇袭的新沙赫京斯克 炼油厂就已暂停运营。 它是俄罗斯南部最重要的炼油厂之一，年产能为500万吨，还为俄军提供必要的燃料能源。 目前新沙赫京斯克炼油厂的两套主 ...

据《环球时报》报道，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋近日表示，美国建设人工智能基础设施的速度太慢，可 能在"AI竞赛"中被中国反超。他将AI产业简化为"五层蛋糕"，分别为能源、芯片、基础设施、模型和应 用。他指出，在最底层的能源领域，"中国拥有的能源是美国的两倍"。 众所周知，AI数据中心是名副其实的"吞电巨兽"。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）11月发布的研报就警 告称，到2028年，由于AI数据中心消耗大量电力，美国可能面临高达20%的电力缺口。不缺高端芯片的 美国，有可能反被能源"卡脖子"。微软CEO萨蒂亚·纳德拉承认，目前最大的问题"不是计算能力，而是 电力"，并警告说，如果没有电力供应，一些人工智能芯片最终可能会闲置。 在12月7日举行的2025年大湾区科学论坛上，图灵奖获得者、中国科学院外籍院士约翰・霍普克罗夫特 （John Hopcroft）接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时，也指出了同一个问题："如果要问我AI有什么风 险，那些治理问题我觉得要留给政策制定者去考虑，但作为一个科学家，我想值得关注的是电力供应问 题，因为AI对电力的需求增长如此迅猛，已经超过风力发电这些新能源设施的建设速度。" 为了 ...

Core Insights - The fall of Red Army City has significant implications for Ukraine's coal and steel industries, which are crucial for the country's economic security [1][3] - The loss of control over this region's mineral resources poses severe risks to Ukraine's industrial system, potentially leading to a collapse of its industrial production [3][4] Industry Impact - The metallurgical steel industry is a critical sector during wartime, as all weaponry production relies on steel [3] - The loss of metallurgical coking coal from Red Army City will severely impact Ukraine's industrial capabilities, affecting both military and civilian production [3][4] - If Ukraine turns to importing raw materials, metallurgical companies will face financial pressures due to higher production costs and supply chain instability [4] European Dependency - Europe heavily relies on Ukrainian coal resources, and any disruption in supply will have a cascading effect on the steel and military manufacturing sectors [6] - The interconnectedness of the European steel industry means that a coal shortage could lead to production slowdowns or halts in downstream sectors like automotive and machinery [6] Historical Context - Ukraine has already faced significant industrial losses due to the war, including the closure of the Azovstal steel plant and the impact of Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant [8] - The current coal resource shortage exacerbates the already strained energy supply situation in Europe, posing unprecedented challenges for the industrial sector [8] EU Aid and Confidence - The fall of Red Army City has shaken the EU's confidence in its support for Ukraine, leading to internal divisions regarding the effectiveness of ongoing aid [10] - Concerns are growing within the EU about the sustainability of aid efforts, especially if Ukraine cannot maintain control over key industrial cities [10] Military Developments - Russian military advances threaten additional energy industrial cities, further destabilizing Ukraine's industrial base [12] - The ongoing military actions indicate a shift in battlefield dominance towards Russian forces, complicating Ukraine's industrial recovery efforts [12]

Group 1 - Ukraine is facing a large-scale attack from Russia, with over 470 drones and 48 missiles launched, affecting more than 10 regions [2] - The attack resulted in significant casualties, including 10 deaths and 37 injuries in the city of Chernivtsi, with ongoing rescue operations [2] - Kharkiv city has experienced continuous airstrikes, severely damaging energy systems and infrastructure, leading to emergency power outages [4] Group 2 - President Zelensky announced the outcomes of his visit to Greece, France, and Spain, securing new energy and military aid agreements [5] - A gas supply agreement was signed with Greece to help Ukraine through the winter heating season [6] - France will provide military assistance, including 100 Rafale F4 fighter jets by 2035, while Spain will offer €515 million in aid for defense and energy support [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced plans to sue the EU over its recent ban on Russian natural gas imports, claiming the decision is illegal and contrary to EU values [1]. Group 1: Hungary's Position - Hungary's energy supply is heavily reliant on Russia, with 74% of its natural gas and 86% of its oil imported from Russia in 2024, according to IMF data [1]. - Orbán indicated that Hungary would seek alternative "non-legal" methods to continue importing Russian natural gas, although he did not provide specific details [1]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Exemptions - During a visit to the U.S., Orbán secured a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions for Hungary's purchases of Russian oil and gas, which he claims has no expiration as long as Trump remains president [2]. - Slovakia also received a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions for its purchases of Russian oil following Hungary's exemption [3]. Group 3: EU Sanctions - The EU approved its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas entering the European market, despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia [1].

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 433.6 yuan per barrel, a significant drop of 2.17% [1] News Summary - Egypt has raised gasoline prices, with 80-octane gasoline now at 17.75 Egyptian pounds per liter, 92-octane at 19.25 pounds, 95-octane at 21 pounds, and diesel at 17.5 pounds [2] - Indian refiners have purchased their first batch of Guyanese crude oil from ExxonMobil for delivery between December and January [2] - U.S. officials indicated productive discussions with India, which has reduced its oil imports from Russia by 50% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Dongwu Futures notes that oil prices are declining due to a potential breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump indicating a summit with Putin to discuss ending the conflict. If Russian energy sanctions are lifted, it could significantly impact Western energy markets, particularly the currently tight diesel market. The latest EIA report showed a much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, with refinery utilization rates indicating deepening autumn maintenance. The firm maintains a bearish long-term outlook but acknowledges the possibility of a return of geopolitical risk premiums in the short term [3] - Yide Futures attributes the drop in oil prices to easing geopolitical tensions, with Trump planning a summit with Putin to discuss the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which introduces uncertainty into global energy supply. The recent EIA inventory report revealed a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, primarily due to a significant decline in refinery utilization rates as they enter the autumn maintenance season. U.S. production has reached a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day. The potential cessation of Russian oil imports by India is expected to reshape oil flows and increase supply demand in other regions. Data shows a continued decline in monthly spreads, with mixed movements in crack spreads, and the market remains undervalued [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hungary's Foreign Minister Szijjarto criticized European politicians for blaming Hungary's purchase of Russian energy, arguing that it distracts from the fact that many Western European countries are still buying Russian oil through indirect means [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - Recent data indicates that only 2.2% of Russia's crude oil exports are directed to Hungary, highlighting the hypocrisy of Western European countries that purchase oil from Russia via Asian intermediaries [1] - Szijjarto emphasized that the energy supply through the Adriatic pipeline is insufficient to meet Hungary's needs, stating that recent tests have shown the pipeline cannot sustain large oil deliveries under current technical conditions [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Hungary's geographical position makes it challenging to eliminate reliance on Russian energy, a reality that cannot be changed [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154.0, down 3.87%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh in July. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 27, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5, down 2.82%. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. The macro - situation indicates that during the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's energy supply was sufficient, stable in price, resilient, and high in "green content". Fundamentally, the demand side shows high iron - water production, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream with an overall increase in total inventory. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1154.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1669.50 yuan/ton, down 11.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 912715.00 lots, up 4544.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 47368.00 lots, down 270.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 128949.00 lots, up 4501.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5217.00 lots, up 154.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 142.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 985.00 yuan/ton, up 37.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 105.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal output: 26.00 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal inventory: 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - 314 independent coal washing plants' capacity utilization rate: 0.37%, up 0.00%; raw coal output: 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw coal output: 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory: 450.45 million tons, up 2.67 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory: 268.62 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory: 966.41 million tons, down 10.47 million tons; independent coking enterprises' total coke inventory: 64.37 million tons, up 1.86 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory: 812.31 million tons, up 6.51 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory: 609.59 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' available days of coking coal: 13.07 days, up 0.10 days; 247 steel mills' available days of coke: 10.76 days, down 0.07 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate: 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - Independent coking plants' profit per ton of coke: 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; coke output: 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump announced to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, and the Fed's independence is facing an "unprecedented" impact [2]. - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on India starting Wednesday, and Modi implemented tax cuts and administrative reforms [2]. - By the end of 2024, China's overseas investment stock exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, accounting for 7.2% of global foreign investment [2]. - In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and the power supply is stable after the peak - summer period [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation shows stable power supply, and fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed, with imports' cumulative growth rate declining. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For coke, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation indicates stable energy supply, and fundamentally, the demand is high, and the inventory has shifted downstream. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian oil has escalated tensions between the two nations, creating a volatile situation in their bilateral relations [1] Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio explained the selective sanctions against India, highlighting perceived hypocrisy in not sanctioning other countries, particularly European nations, that also purchase Russian oil [1] - Rubio indicated that secondary sanctions could have significant implications, suggesting that the U.S. is cautious about the potential global energy price increases and supply shortages that could arise from further sanctions on China [1] Group 2: International Relations and Concerns - Some European countries have expressed concerns regarding the U.S. approach to sanctions, indicating a desire for a more balanced strategy that does not provoke tensions with Europe [1] - Rubio mentioned that there was a proposal in the U.S. Senate to impose 100% tariffs on both China and India, but this raised alarms among European allies [1]