前言 9月中旬，澳大利亚刚刚向中国出口54万吨油菜籽，创下今年单月最大出口纪录。 与此同时，这个国家却在积极响应G7稀土联盟，试图对掌握全球92%稀土精炼能力的中国"开火"。 澳洲为何如此矛盾？这种做法会带来什么后果？ 左手数钱，右手开枪的澳洲逻辑 就在澳洲农民为54万吨订单庆祝的时候，他们的政府却在密室里商量着别的事情。 这边刚刚签下价值数亿澳元的油菜籽合同，那边就马不停蹄地加入了美国主导的稀土围堵计划。 说起来也挺有意思，澳洲政府一边享受着中国市场的红利，一边又想在关键资源上给中国"下绊子"。这种操作，真让人看得一头雾水。 要知道，稀土可不是什么普通商品，从手机芯片到导弹制导，从电动汽车到风力发电，现代工业的每一个角落都离不开它。 而咱中国在这个领域的地位，用"垄断"这个词都不算过分，全球92%的稀土精炼能力掌握在中国手里，技术和产业链更是遥遥领先。 澳洲想要挑战这个地位？说句不客气的话，这简直是拿鸡蛋碰石头，澳洲确实有稀土资源，储量还不少，但问题是有矿和能用是两回事。 从开采到冶炼，从分离到应用，整个产业链需要的不仅仅是资源，更需要技术、设备、环保标准和成本控制能力。 在这些方面，中国经过几十年的积累， ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed a desire to meet with Chinese leaders, signaling a potential thaw in relations amid a significant trade dispute [1][3] - The trade conflict began when Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, leading to swift retaliatory measures from China [5][6] - China has targeted Canadian agricultural products, imposing a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal, and a 25% tariff on seafood and pork, severely impacting Canadian exports [6][8] Group 2 - Canola is a crucial crop for Canada, generating approximately $13 billion in farm cash income annually, with exports to China valued at $4.9 billion in 2024, representing one-third of total canola exports [8][12] - Following the tariffs, canola prices dropped by $30 to $50 per ton, putting many farmers at risk of losses [12] - The Canadian government announced $370 million in support for affected producers, but this is seen as insufficient compared to the need for stable market access [14] Group 3 - China has quickly found alternative suppliers, purchasing 540,000 tons of canola from Australia, which is about 8% of its total canola imports last year [9][11] - The trade dispute highlights the need for Canada to reassess its policies towards China, particularly in sectors like 5G networks and mineral resources [14][16] - The situation poses a challenge for the Carney government, which must balance relations with both the U.S. and China, especially with increasing pressure from the U.S. [16][18]

本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源，请知悉。 这一消息是由美国彭博社当地时间9月23日率先报道的，随后得到多家媒体的证实。 加拿大外交部长阿南德在纽约联合国大会期间透露，她将在未来几周内访问中国和印度，寻求改善与这两个亚洲大国的紧张关系。 图 | 加拿大外交部长安妮塔·阿南德 这一决定被广泛视为加拿大配合美国推进"印太战略"的举措，目的是在美国面前表忠心，同时保护本国销售下滑的汽车产业。 加拿大政府或许当时认为此举能够一石二鸟，既向美国展示了忠诚，又能保护本国产业。然而，这一决策忽视了中国作为加拿大第二大贸易伙伴的重要性。 中国是加拿大油菜籽的最大买家，年交易额高达36亿至49亿美元，这一数字对加拿大农业部门至关重要。 图 | 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆 面对加拿大的关税壁垒，中方采取了合法且对等的反制措施。3月份的时候，中国针对加拿大特定产品启动调查和反歧视措施。 阿南德在联合国大会间隙接受采访时表示，加拿大必须"确保我们与'印太地区'的重要经济大国的双边关系"。她计划在与中方的会谈中推进加拿大在贸易、 气候变化、国防和安全方面的利益。 加拿大与前总理特鲁多政府时期的对华政策已经使加 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian government is reviewing the current tariff rates on electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum imported from China, aiming to regain access to the Chinese market for canola, which is Canada's largest agricultural export [1][2] - A trade delegation from Saskatchewan, led by Premier Scott Moe, will visit China from September 6 to September 9 to advocate for the removal of punitive tariffs on Canadian canola [1][2] - The Canadian Ministry of Finance is also assessing whether to maintain the current tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum, as imports of these products have significantly decreased since the tariffs were implemented [1][2] Group 2 - Canada imposed a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from China in October 2022, following the U.S. lead [2] - China initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola on September 9, 2022, leading to a temporary anti-dumping measure with a 75.8% deposit starting August 14, 2025, which has severely impacted Canadian canola exports [2] - The ongoing trade dispute has prompted discussions in Canada about potentially removing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to alleviate the pressure on canola exports [2][3] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti-dumping investigation period for Canadian canola until March 9, 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The trade tensions between China and the US have seen a shift after six months, with Trump realizing that confrontation has not yielded expected results, leading to concessions such as extending tariff exemptions on certain Chinese goods [1][3] - China's recent announcements targeting the EU, Canada, and Japan have raised confusion among Western media, as these actions seem contradictory to the easing of US-China relations [5] - Canada faces significant economic challenges due to China's imposition of a 75.8% deposit on canola seed imports, effectively closing its market, which previously accounted for $5 billion in exports [7][9] Group 2 - China's strategic choice to target the canola seed industry stems from Canada's alignment with US policies, particularly in response to tariffs on steel and aluminum [9] - The EU has also been impacted, with China retaliating against sanctions imposed on its financial institutions by blacklisting two banks from Lithuania, showcasing a more assertive legal approach [11] - Japan is experiencing increased scrutiny on its automotive parts exports to China, prompting companies to seek alternative production lines in Southeast Asia to reduce dependency [14] Group 3 - The events highlight the reality that there are no true allies in trade, as the EU and Japan's support for US policies has led to targeted retaliatory measures from China [16] - China's actions serve as a reminder to countries attempting to exploit trade relationships, emphasizing the potential consequences of their decisions [18] - The repercussions of these trade dynamics are evident, with Canadian farmers facing market losses, Japanese companies adjusting supply chains, and EU banks losing clients, illustrating the complexities of international trade relationships [19]

Core Insights - The Canadian government's unfriendly policies towards China have severely impacted Canadian farmers, particularly in the canola sector, which previously had an export value of CAD 5 billion (approximately RMB 260.5 billion) to China [1] - China's decision to impose a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola is a direct response to ongoing pressure from Canada, highlighting the consequences of political maneuvering in trade [3][5] - The loss of the Chinese market has significant implications for Canadian farmers and related industries, leading to potential income drops and job losses in the canola sector [6][8] Industry Impact - The canola industry in Western Canada is crucial for thousands of livelihoods, and the loss of the Chinese market will likely result in a price drop for canola, affecting farmers' incomes and leading to layoffs in oil processing plants [6][8] - China's swift pivot to Australia for canola procurement demonstrates its adaptability in the global market and signals the importance of maintaining trust and cooperation in international trade [3][6] Strategic Lessons - The situation serves as a warning to other nations about the risks of treating economic interests as political leverage, emphasizing the need for rational decision-making and adherence to market principles [8][10] - Canada must recognize the severity of its current predicament and consider strategic adjustments to re-establish communication and cooperation with China to regain market share [8][10]

Trade Relations Between Canada and China - Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products, ostensibly to appease the U.S. after the latter's tariff increases [3][4] - The Canadian government’s rationale for targeting China was weak, as Chinese steel only accounted for 10% of the Canadian market, while 91% came from the U.S. [3][4] Impact on Canadian Agriculture - China retaliated by imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and peas, and a 25% tariff on pork and seafood, severely impacting Canadian farmers [4][6] - Canada relies on China for 64% of its canola exports, generating approximately $2 billion annually, which is now threatened by China's tariffs [4][6] Shift in Trade Partnerships - China has shifted its canola oil imports from Canada to Australia, which has quickly adapted to fill the gap, indicating a significant loss for Canadian agriculture [6][7] - The loss of the Chinese market could result in an estimated loss of CAD 3.8 billion for Canada, with farmers showing little interest in government subsidies due to bureaucratic hurdles [6][7] Strategic Missteps - Canada's reliance on the U.S. has backfired, leading to increased tariffs without any relief, while China has found alternative partners, exacerbating Canada's economic challenges [7][8] - The accumulation of unsold canola represents a strategic failure for Canada, highlighting the consequences of short-sighted trade policies [8]

Group 1 - China has implemented significant measures against Canada and Japan following a new tariff truce with the US, signaling that countries compromising Chinese interests for US relations will face consequences [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on canola seed imports from Canada, based on a year-long investigation that confirmed dumping practices [1][4] - Canada's response to the anti-dumping measures has been one of disappointment, yet they acknowledge the retaliatory nature of China's actions after previously imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum [1][4] Group 2 - The canola seed industry is crucial for Canada, with annual exports nearing CAD 5 billion, and the sudden high deposit has nearly blocked their market access to China, causing prices to plummet [4] - China's countermeasures extend beyond canola seeds, imposing high deposits on halogenated butyl rubber from Canada (40.5%) and Japan (30.1%), and initiating a new anti-dumping investigation on Canadian pea starch [6] - Japan's cooperation with the US in various sectors, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and imposing semiconductor export restrictions, has led to China's retaliatory actions, despite Japan's attempts to maintain a friendly stance [8] Group 3 - China's actions serve as a warning to other nations, emphasizing the need for careful consideration when choosing between US interests and Chinese relations, as demonstrated by the cases of Canada and Japan [10][13] - The overarching message from China is clear: countries that attempt to sacrifice Chinese interests for US dealings will face similar repercussions as Canada and Japan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures against Canadian companies, with dumping margins of 75.8% for canola seeds and between 26.2% to 40.5% for halogenated butyl rubber [1]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry initiated anti-dumping investigations on imported canola seeds from Canada on September 9, 2024, and on halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and other countries on September 14, 2024 [1]. - The investigations were conducted under principles of fairness, justice, openness, and transparency, adhering to Chinese laws and WTO rules [1]. Group 2: Preliminary Rulings - The preliminary evidence indicated that the imported products were being dumped and that the domestic industry suffered substantial damage, establishing a causal relationship between dumping and the damage [1]. - For the halogenated butyl rubber case, the volume of imports from India during the investigation period was less than 3% of the total imports of halogenated butyl rubber in China, leading to the termination of the anti-dumping investigation for Indian products [1]. Group 3: Implementation of Measures - Starting from August 14, 2025, importers of canola seeds from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and Japan must provide corresponding deposit rates to the customs of the People's Republic of China based on the preliminary ruling [2].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/11 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： RASRAPS：预计今年俄罗斯油菜籽产量料达500万吨 俄罗斯油菜籽生产商和加工商协会主席SergeyTuchin称，预计该国冬季油菜籽作物产量料为100-120万吨，加上春 季油菜籽作物的产量，该国今年油菜籽产量料达500万吨。 该协会公布的数据显示，今年俄罗斯油菜籽作物播种面积已经增加至300万公顷，其中75.45万公顷为冬季油菜籽作 物，240万公顷为春季油菜籽作物。 然而，西伯利亚地区存在油菜籽作物收割延迟的风险：例如，2024年，尽管种植面积增至124万公顷，但单产自每 公顷17.3吨降至每公顷14.1吨，原因是收割期间出现不利天气。 "由于进口限制，油菜籽种植面积减少也可能影响总产出水平，因此初步预测今年油菜籽产量可能在500万吨附 近。" 俄罗斯联邦统计局公布的数据显示，该国2024年的油菜籽产量为466万吨。 农业部：上调法国今年油菜籽产量预估至450万吨 法国农业部周五在一份报告中称，将该国今年油菜籽产量预估从上月的420万吨上调至450万吨。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 ...