据第一财经报道，欧盟将暂停对美国的贸易反制措施6个月。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 欧元兑美元短线波动不大，报道称欧盟将对美国的贸易反制措施暂停6个月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's adjustment of rare earth export policies, particularly the strict control over antimony and germanium, poses a dilemma for the U.S. as it attempts to navigate its reliance on Chinese materials while facing domestic pressures to develop its own supply chains [4][11][29]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Export Strategy - China has increased the export of rare earth magnets to the U.S. but maintains strict controls over antimony and germanium, which are critical materials for military and high-tech applications [5][9][11]. - The export of rare earth magnets to the U.S. saw a significant increase in June compared to May, yet it still represents a 38.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, indicating that the restrictions are not fully lifted [9][29]. - The strategy behind the limited release of rare earth magnets is to alleviate immediate pressures on U.S. automotive manufacturers while keeping military-related exports tightly controlled [9][13]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Industries - The U.S. automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles, relies heavily on rare earth materials, and the easing of restrictions has allowed manufacturers to resume production and reduce inventory turnover days [13][15]. - Conversely, the U.S. military-industrial complex continues to face challenges due to China's stringent controls on military-related rare earth exports, highlighting a significant gap in the U.S. supply chain capabilities [15][17]. - U.S. companies are under pressure to reconcile the need for Chinese rare earths with the government's push for domestic production, leading to a complex situation where they struggle to balance cost and supply chain independence [17][29]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Antimony and Germanium - Antimony and germanium are critical for various high-tech and military applications, including ammunition, military alloys, infrared optics, and semiconductor manufacturing [21][23]. - China's strict control over these materials serves as a countermeasure to U.S. technological restrictions and aims to protect national security interests by preventing these resources from being used against China [23][29]. - The significant drop in exports of antimony and germanium, with June figures showing declines of 88% and 95% respectively compared to January, reflects China's commitment to maintaining control over these strategic resources [27][29].

Core Points - Brazil has established a "Negotiation and Trade Strategy Committee" to assess the potential economic impact of President Trump's announcement to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [1] - The committee, chaired by Vice President Alckmin, will hold meetings with the industrial and agricultural sectors to discuss responses to the U.S. tariff policy [1] - Alckmin emphasized that engaging in extensive dialogue with exporters is the first step for the Brazilian government in addressing the tariff issue [1] - Brazil is prepared to take countermeasures if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented [1] - President Lula will also meet with some entrepreneurs through this committee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has implemented restrictions on Chinese companies participating in public procurement for medical devices valued over 5 million euros, prompting China to respond with reciprocal measures to protect its domestic market and companies [1][4]. Group 1: EU Restrictions - On June 20, the EU Commission announced limitations on Chinese enterprises in medical device tenders exceeding 5 million euros under the International Procurement Instrument (IPI) [1]. - The EU's decision is seen as a public procurement barrier against Chinese companies, leading to China's countermeasures aimed at ensuring fair competition [1][4]. Group 2: China's Response - Starting from July 6, 2025, if a procurement project requires medical devices with a budget of 45 million RMB or more, EU companies (excluding European capital companies established in China) will be excluded from bidding unless no alternatives are available [3]. - Non-EU companies participating in tenders can only have 50% of their contract value sourced from EU medical devices, promoting diversity in government procurement and reducing reliance on the Chinese market [3]. Group 3: Exceptions and Implications - The restrictions do not apply if the procurement can only be fulfilled by EU-manufactured medical devices, allowing for continued procurement in specific cases [4]. - The measures primarily affect directly imported medical devices from the EU, while those produced by European companies within China are exempt, indicating a protective stance towards the domestic market while supporting foreign enterprises operating in China [4]. - Notable EU medical device manufacturers like Siemens Healthineers and Philips Healthcare may face business impacts in the Chinese market, while local Chinese companies could see growth opportunities [4].

Group 1 - China's response to the EU's pressure has been to impose a five-year anti-dumping tax on imports of stainless steel billets and hot-rolled sheets/rolls from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, effective July 1 [2] - This action effectively blocks these countries' steel companies from capturing the Chinese market with low-priced products, signaling that China is the dominant player in China-EU trade [2] - Historical context shows that previous attempts by the Trump administration to pressure China on rare earth controls led to a shift in strategy towards dialogue and compromise, highlighting the effectiveness of China's strong countermeasures in the rare earth sector [2] Group 2 - The EU's recent actions regarding rare earths reflect a mix of arrogance and dependency, as they have attempted to pressure China while simultaneously relying on its resources [3] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused China of "weaponizing" rare earths and creating a global shortage, which appears to be an unfounded attempt to apply pressure through public opinion [5] - The EU's envoy to China expressed anxiety over the rare earth issue, indicating a stark contrast to their previous hardline stance, revealing their vulnerability in this matter [5] Group 3 - The EU's dual approach of criticizing China while seeking its rare earth resources demonstrates a lack of awareness regarding their own dependency [7] - The EU's previous actions, such as dumping stainless steel billets below cost in the Chinese market, violate fair competition principles and have provoked China's countermeasures [7] - To secure rare earth resources from China, the EU must adopt a more sincere and conciliatory approach rather than maintaining a stance of arrogance and pressure [7]

Group 1 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very, very bad," with President Trump expressing anxiety and calling for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to lower government borrowing costs [1] - Trump is focusing on tariff policies to alleviate fiscal pressure, proposing a 10% tariff on all imports, which could generate over $400 billion in government revenue and significantly reduce the $1.83 trillion fiscal deficit [3] - The proposed tariffs are seen as a core strategy for the Trump administration to increase revenue, with the 10% tariff rate becoming a key indicator of his economic policy [3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff plan faces multiple challenges, including the Federal Reserve's commitment to independent monetary policy and bipartisan criticism regarding inflation risks and potential global trade retaliation [4] - Analysts suggest that while Trump's tariff strategy may boost fiscal revenue in the short term, it could lead to higher domestic prices, weaken corporate competitiveness, and provoke retaliation from trade partners, exacerbating the current economic imbalance [6] - The U.S. economy is currently in a "high debt, high deficit, low growth" predicament, and pushing for a tariff war may further complicate economic stability, with significant uncertainty about the future direction of the economy [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's strong response to U.S. tariffs, including equal tariff imposition and export controls on rare earths, which directly impact U.S. military technology [1][3] - China holds significant leverage with its vast consumer market and monopoly on rare earth resources, controlling 90% of global processing capacity, which poses a threat to U.S. military capabilities [3][5] - The recent negotiations resulted in a reduction of tariffs to 10%, indicating a temporary truce between the two largest economies [1][15] Group 2 - India's recent decision to impose tariffs on $7.6 billion worth of U.S. goods is a significant retaliatory measure, marking a shift in its trade strategy [5][15] - The backdrop of India's military setbacks against Pakistan and perceived U.S. betrayal has prompted a reevaluation of its reliance on American military support [7][11] - India's role in the Apple supply chain is crucial, with projections indicating that it will produce 14% of global iPhones by 2024, giving it leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [8][9] Group 3 - Domestic economic pressures in India, including a GDP growth rate drop to 4.5% and rising unemployment, have led the government to seek external conflicts to divert public dissatisfaction [11][15] - The effectiveness of India's retaliatory measures is questionable, as its trade surplus with the U.S. stands at $30 billion, and the impact of its tariff list on the U.S. economy is limited [13][15] - Unlike China, India lacks a significant leverage point, as its steel and aluminum exports constitute only 2% of U.S. imports, making its retaliatory capacity weaker [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission announced plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against U.S. tariffs and is considering potential countermeasures on €95 billion worth of U.S. imports [1] Group 1: Proposed Countermeasures - The proposed countermeasures will target U.S. products including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, fish, automobiles, and auto parts [1] - Additional targets for the countermeasures include U.S. chemicals, plastics, electrical equipment, healthcare products, and machinery [1] - The EU is also considering restrictions on €4.4 billion worth of its own steel and chemical exports to the U.S. [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts - The EU emphasizes its intention to continue seeking mutually beneficial and balanced solutions with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is proposing countermeasures targeting various U.S. products including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, fish, automobiles, and auto parts, as well as chemicals, plastics, electrical equipment, health products, and machinery [1] Group 1 - Proposed countermeasures will specifically target U.S. aircraft [1] - Alcoholic beverages from the U.S. are also included in the proposed measures [1] - Fish products from the U.S. will be affected by the proposed countermeasures [1] Group 2 - The automotive sector, including cars and auto parts, is a focus of the proposed measures [1] - Chemicals and plastics from the U.S. are part of the countermeasures [1] - Electrical equipment and health products from the U.S. will also be targeted [1] Group 3 - Machinery from the U.S. is included in the list of products facing proposed countermeasures [1]