Group 1 - The Chinese government has imposed a preliminary anti-dumping tax of 62.4% on European pork imports, significantly impacting the European pork industry [1][3] - The tax rates vary by country, with Spain at 15.6%, Denmark at 31.3%, and the Netherlands at 32.7%, while non-compliant companies face the full 62.4% [3] - The restriction on pork imports from China, which accounts for a quarter of the EU's pork export market, has led to a surplus of pork in Europe, signaling a potential industry downturn [3][6] Group 2 - European by-products such as pig ears, noses, and offal, which have low local demand, are highly sought after in China, creating a significant market dependency [6] - The increase in tariffs has resulted in a loss of the primary buyer for these by-products, leading to a cash flow crisis for European producers as both primary and secondary products become unsellable [6] - The European stance towards China is characterized by a conflict between following U.S. pressure and the necessity of maintaining access to the Chinese market [8][11] Group 3 - Europe is heavily reliant on China as a major trade partner, particularly in sectors like automotive, machinery, and luxury goods, making the current situation critical for its economy [8] - The U.S. is pressuring Europe to align with its policies against China, which could exacerbate Europe's economic challenges while benefiting U.S. interests [9][11] - The European dilemma involves balancing the need to maintain economic ties with China while managing the geopolitical pressures from the U.S. [11]

Group 1 - China's export control on rare earth elements has significantly impacted the EU's high-tech industries, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors, with 92% of the EU's rare earth permanent magnets relying on imports from China [2][11] - The EU's attempt to impose high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles led to a retaliatory reduction of 80% in China's rare earth export quotas, which has severely affected European automotive manufacturers [9][7] - The EU's dependency on China for rare earth elements has been highlighted as a critical vulnerability, especially as the EU faces rising industrial electricity costs and a lack of alternative sources [4][11] Group 2 - The EU has proposed a plan for lunar mining to alleviate its resource dependency, aiming to extract rare earth elements and helium-3 from the moon, which has sparked skepticism from the international community [13][15] - The timeline for the EU's lunar mining initiative includes launching a lunar probe by 2030 and establishing a small lunar base by 2040, which is a significant acceleration from previous deep space exploration plans [19] - However, the technical, economic, and legal challenges of lunar mining are substantial, with current costs for lunar mining projected to be significantly higher than terrestrial mining [21][23][25] Group 3 - The lunar mining initiative reflects a broader geopolitical struggle for resource control, with the US seeking to influence the rules of space resource utilization through the Artemis Accords, while Russia and China oppose the privatization of lunar resources [29][31] - China's strategy includes strengthening its rare earth processing capabilities and expanding its presence in the European renewable energy market, which undermines the effectiveness of EU trade protection measures [31][33] - The EU's reliance on lunar mining as a solution to its immediate resource crisis indicates a strategic anxiety, as the demand for rare earth elements is expected to triple in the next five years, with no viable alternative supply chains established by 2030 [33]

Group 1: Strategic Art and Diplomatic Engagement - China is showcasing its strategic capabilities through hosting major international events while simultaneously implementing precise countermeasures against countries attempting to isolate it diplomatically [1][3] - The gathering of over twenty national leaders in Beijing to commemorate the victory over fascism demonstrates China's strong international relationships and its ability to counter isolation attempts [3] - The visit of a former Japanese Prime Minister, who previously apologized for historical invasions, serves as a diplomatic highlight, exposing the hypocrisy of countries that attempt to isolate China while maintaining double standards [3] Group 2: Tariff Measures and Economic Sovereignty - China’s Ministry of Commerce announced significant anti-dumping tariffs on phenol products from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, with some rates exceeding 100% [4][5] - The imposition of tariffs on phenol, a critical raw material for various industries, reflects China's commitment to protecting its domestic industries and economic security [4][8] - The response from affected countries varies, with some expressing disappointment while others remain cautious, indicating the importance of the Chinese market and the potential impact of these countermeasures [7] Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Industry Protection - The competition over phenol is not just about market prices but also concerns the control over the global supply chain [8] - China's investigation into low-priced phenol imports highlights the disruption to domestic market order and the need to protect local production to maintain economic stability [8] - The exclusion of the UK from the extended tariff list signals a targeted approach, indicating that countries cooperating with China may benefit while those provoking it will face consequences [8] Group 4: Combination of Soft and Hard Power - The simultaneous occurrence of diplomatic events and tariff announcements reflects a well-thought-out strategy combining soft and hard power [9] - China is demonstrating a new model of international relations, balancing assertiveness in defending its interests with diplomatic engagement [9][10] - Specific examples include China's response to the US trade war by significantly increasing tariffs and controlling rare earth exports to maintain leverage in high-tech sectors [10][11] Group 5: Redefining Global Power Dynamics - China is reshaping the rules of global power dynamics, emphasizing strategic precision and economic interconnections to influence international politics [13][15] - The approach is not about seeking hegemony but dismantling existing hegemonic structures, indicating a shift in how global power is perceived and exercised [15][17] - The message is clear: countries attempting to maintain outdated power dynamics must reconsider their strategies in light of China's assertive stance [17]

Group 1 - The trade tensions between China and the US have seen a shift after six months, with Trump realizing that confrontation has not yielded expected results, leading to concessions such as extending tariff exemptions on certain Chinese goods [1][3] - China's recent announcements targeting the EU, Canada, and Japan have raised confusion among Western media, as these actions seem contradictory to the easing of US-China relations [5] - Canada faces significant economic challenges due to China's imposition of a 75.8% deposit on canola seed imports, effectively closing its market, which previously accounted for $5 billion in exports [7][9] Group 2 - China's strategic choice to target the canola seed industry stems from Canada's alignment with US policies, particularly in response to tariffs on steel and aluminum [9] - The EU has also been impacted, with China retaliating against sanctions imposed on its financial institutions by blacklisting two banks from Lithuania, showcasing a more assertive legal approach [11] - Japan is experiencing increased scrutiny on its automotive parts exports to China, prompting companies to seek alternative production lines in Southeast Asia to reduce dependency [14] Group 3 - The events highlight the reality that there are no true allies in trade, as the EU and Japan's support for US policies has led to targeted retaliatory measures from China [16] - China's actions serve as a reminder to countries attempting to exploit trade relationships, emphasizing the potential consequences of their decisions [18] - The repercussions of these trade dynamics are evident, with Canadian farmers facing market losses, Japanese companies adjusting supply chains, and EU banks losing clients, illustrating the complexities of international trade relationships [19]

Group 1 - China's recent trade countermeasures against Canada have caused significant turmoil, particularly affecting the canola seed exports, which faced a major setback due to a new margin system implemented by China [1] - Canada exported 4 million tons of canola seeds, and the new measures have nearly eliminated their chances of continuing exports to China, which is critical as 65% of Canada's canola seed exports rely on the Chinese market [2][3] - The Canadian government, represented by Prime Minister Carney, has expressed a willingness to engage in constructive negotiations with China, but there has been no progress from the Chinese side, leading to increased anxiety among Canadian farmers [3][4] Group 2 - The Saskatchewan Premier has announced plans to visit China to persuade the Chinese government to lift the anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds, as the current situation poses a severe threat to the Canadian canola industry during the harvest season [4] - There are doubts regarding the effectiveness of the Premier's visit, as many believe that China's response is more of a retaliation against Canada's unfriendly actions rather than a genuine negotiation opportunity [4][5] - Canada's previous unfriendly measures towards China, including unwarranted tariffs, have severely damaged mutual trust, making it difficult to rebuild relationships and complicating future negotiations [5][6] Group 3 - China has diversified its canola seed import sources, with Australian canola seeds now entering the Chinese market, which poses a competitive threat to Canadian exports [5] - Recent purchases of approximately 50,000 tons of Australian canola seeds by Chinese companies highlight the advantages in price and supply stability, further impacting Canada's market share [5] - Successful negotiations could signal a thaw in China-Canada trade relations and open pathways for resolving other trade disputes, while a breakdown in talks would exacerbate trade tensions and hinder cooperation [6]

Group 1 - China has implemented significant measures against Canada and Japan following a new tariff truce with the US, signaling that countries compromising Chinese interests for US relations will face consequences [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on canola seed imports from Canada, based on a year-long investigation that confirmed dumping practices [1][4] - Canada's response to the anti-dumping measures has been one of disappointment, yet they acknowledge the retaliatory nature of China's actions after previously imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum [1][4] Group 2 - The canola seed industry is crucial for Canada, with annual exports nearing CAD 5 billion, and the sudden high deposit has nearly blocked their market access to China, causing prices to plummet [4] - China's countermeasures extend beyond canola seeds, imposing high deposits on halogenated butyl rubber from Canada (40.5%) and Japan (30.1%), and initiating a new anti-dumping investigation on Canadian pea starch [6] - Japan's cooperation with the US in various sectors, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and imposing semiconductor export restrictions, has led to China's retaliatory actions, despite Japan's attempts to maintain a friendly stance [8] Group 3 - China's actions serve as a warning to other nations, emphasizing the need for careful consideration when choosing between US interests and Chinese relations, as demonstrated by the cases of Canada and Japan [10][13] - The overarching message from China is clear: countries that attempt to sacrifice Chinese interests for US dealings will face similar repercussions as Canada and Japan [13]

Group 1 - Canada has faced economic and diplomatic isolation due to its alignment with the US against China, particularly during trade disputes [1][5][7] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary ceasefire in tariffs, but Canada has been targeted by China for its previous support of US policies [3][5] - China's anti-dumping investigations into Canadian products, such as pea starch and canola seeds, indicate a significant economic backlash against Canada [3][5][8] Group 2 - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Trudeau, has failed to adjust its foreign policy in light of deteriorating US-Canada relations, leading to increased economic pressure on Canadian farmers [7][8] - Calls from local governments and business leaders in Canada for a shift in policy towards China highlight the growing discontent with the current administration's approach [7][8] - The situation serves as a warning to other nations about the consequences of provoking major powers and the importance of maintaining balanced diplomatic relations [8]

Currency Market Overview - The euro against the dollar has entered a consolidation phase after failing to retest the 1.1600 level [1] - The British pound has returned above the 1.3300 mark against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen's intraday pullback has stalled [1] - The Australian dollar is hovering around 0.6450 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is consolidating below 0.5900 [1] - The US dollar is holding above 1.3790 against the Canadian dollar [1] Key Economic News - President Trump is set to select a distinguished successor for the US Labor Department [2] - Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with more than two cuts likely this year [2] - Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that internal divisions within the Fed have been exaggerated [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will begin a series of three 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September; a 50 basis point cut may occur if unemployment rises further [3] Non-US Major Currencies - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for six months, awaiting Trump's actions on auto tariffs and exemptions [4] - The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7, aiming to present more attractive proposals [5] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes revealed that many members noted inflation is slightly above expectations but emphasized the need to carefully assess economic conditions due to the downside risks from US tariff policies [5] Other Economic Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 64.29 billion in the market as the HKD exchange rate hit the weak end of the peg [6] - The Bank of Korea expects a significant drop in the inflation rate for August due to temporary factors [7] - Traders suggest the Reserve Bank of India may sell dollars in the local spot market to support the rupee [8] - The State Bank of Vietnam has instructed lending institutions to lower deposit rates to promote a decrease in lending rates [9] - Colombia's central bank raised its 2025 inflation forecast from 4.4% to 4.7% [10] - Argentine President Milei vetoed a pension increase bill passed by Congress [11] Technical Analysis - For EUR/USD, if bulls regain control, it may retest weekly highs of 1.1788 and challenge the psychological level of 1.2000 [12] - For USD/JPY, any subsequent rebound may face resistance around 148.00, with potential upward movement towards 149.00 if broken [12] - For AUD/USD, the pair has shown resilience below the 100-day simple moving average, but caution is advised due to a lack of strong follow-through buying [12] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes the US trade balance for June at 20:30, the final reading of the US Services PMI for July at 21:45, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July at 22:00 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 775.55 yuan/g, with a change of 8.37 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 47,492, and the open interest was 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 111 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the futures active contract was - 78,029, and the open interest was 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a change of 12.60 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 132,941, and the open interest was 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.34 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 44,731, and the open interest was 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces) [1]. News and Information - **Gold**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will choose a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in July. The US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still raise rates by the end of 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]