Core Viewpoint - The Trump campaign is accelerating its strategy regarding the Federal Reserve as the election approaches, focusing on potential candidates for the Fed chair position if Trump returns to the White House [2][9]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Scott Bessent, a former Treasury official and current economic advisor to Trump, hosted a private dinner with three former Fed officials to discuss potential successors for the Fed chair [2][3]. - The meeting shifted the discussion of potential Fed candidates from media speculation to a semi-public operation, with Bessent bringing a list of candidates including current Fed Governor Lael Brainard and former economic advisor Larry Kudlow [3]. Group 2: Candidate Perspectives - Lawrence Lindsey emphasized the need for the future Fed chair to establish accountability with Congress regarding inflation targets, suggesting a quantifiable approach to the 2% inflation goal [3][5]. - Kevin Warsh advocated for a strategic silence from the Fed, proposing a shift from forward guidance to data-triggered thresholds, while expressing cautious openness to returning to public office under specific conditions [4][8]. - James Bullard, known for his hawkish stance, proposed raising the long-term inflation target range to 2.5%-3% and suggested establishing a shadow FOMC to help the market digest policy differences [5][8]. Group 3: Candidate Recommendations - Lindsey supports Warsh for the Fed chair position due to his market trust and connections in Congress, while Warsh recommends Bullard for his academic authority and experience [6][7]. - Bullard suggests Lindsey as a candidate, arguing that an old-school hawk could quickly restore the Fed's credibility [7]. Group 4: Implications for the Market - The meeting's outcomes have led to immediate reactions in the market, with hedge fund managers adjusting their forecasts for interest rate cuts in late 2025 and the dollar index rising by 0.4% [9]. - Analysts warn that the meticulous preparation of Fed personnel by the Trump campaign could undermine the central bank's independence, making it a daily risk factor for traders [9]. Group 5: Next Steps - Bessent requested the three former officials to submit a joint memo by October 1, outlining an expanded candidate list, policy framework options, and key points for congressional hearings [8].

Group 1 - Deloitte predicts that U.S. retail sales growth during the winter holiday season will hit a new low since the pandemic, with expected growth of 2.9-3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% due to economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade policies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has a 60% probability of a final 25 basis point rate cut in December, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market and inflation falling significantly below targets due to declining energy prices and a stronger euro [1] - Danske Bank analysts highlight that the U.S. August PPI will be closely watched as it precedes the August CPI release and may provide early clues on the accumulation of tariff-related costs [2] Group 2 - InTouch Capital Markets analysts suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve would require core inflation data to be significantly below expectations, but the likelihood of a large cut remains low due to sticky service prices and the Fed's gradual policy approach [2] - City Index strategists warn that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially harm market confidence more than it would benefit, indicating that the Fed is likely to avoid appearing to yield to political pressure [2] - Leuthold Group strategists argue that the Fed's 2% inflation target should be viewed as a reference point rather than a strict constraint, noting that a slightly higher inflation rate could coexist with stable growth [3]

周四公布的数据预计显示，8月核心CPI年率将升至3.1%。这一美联储偏爱的通胀指标在7月同比上涨 2.9%。在如此通胀水平下放宽政策，堪称罕见之举。 当然，美联储去年底曾在核心CPI更高（约3.3%）时降息，但该举措随即引发了争议——失业率并未如 美联储官员警告般上升，长期国债收益率反而攀升。若要追溯本轮降息周期前美联储在核心PCE通胀 3%时放宽政策的先例，需回到1990年代初，即美联储非正式采纳2%目标之前。 那是一个经济环境截然不同的时代：互联网尚未普及，智能手机不存在，"apps"在足球运动员数据中还 是"出场次数"的缩写。因此，美联储一年内第二次在核心通胀高达3%时放宽政策，堪称重大事件—— 这或许标志着近几十年的经济正统观念正面临考验或颠覆。 暴风雨前的平静 尽管通胀仍徘徊在3%左右，较官方目标高出整整一个百分点，但市场普遍预期美联储下周将降息。这 一局面引发了路透社专栏作家Jamie McGeever的质疑：2%通胀目标是否仍具可行性？ 高通胀预期时代 学术研究表明，消费者在预测通胀方面最不准确，但政策制定者长期不愿忽视其影响。当前，2%已不 在消费者的通胀预期范围内。 纽约联储周一调查显示，8 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of further cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 80,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - Manufacturing jobs have been particularly affected, with a loss of 12,000 jobs in August and a total decline of 42,000 jobs from May to August, attributed to tariff uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak employment data [1][5] - The labor market's deterioration may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stability over inflation targets, as indicated by the comments from analysts [1][5] - The healthcare and leisure sectors showed resilience, while manufacturing, construction, and federal government jobs continued to decline, reflecting broader demand-side weaknesses [4] Group 3 - The market consensus leans towards a 25 basis point cut, but there is debate over the extent of the cut, with some analysts arguing for a larger reduction due to the disappointing employment figures [5][6] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve is influenced by ongoing political maneuvers, including the appointment of more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are in a high - level shock pattern, and bonds are affected by multiple factors with limited adjustment expectations. Precious metals are driven by political instability in Europe and the United States and are expected to rise. The shipping market is expected to fluctuate, and the metal and agricultural product markets have different trends based on supply - demand and macro - factors [2][5][8][13][15][55] - In the commodity futures market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be affected by interest - rate cut expectations, while aluminum prices are affected by macro - expectations and fundamental improvements. Agricultural products such as soymeal and pork also have their own market characteristics [15][22][55] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45%. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly declined. Domestic and overseas news affected the market. A - share trading volume remained high, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, but the overall liquidity was stable. The bond market was weak due to multiple factors. It is recommended to observe the stock market trend and institutional behavior. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.8% [5][6][7] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high due to political instability in Europe and the United States, with a 1.65% increase. Silver prices also rose slightly. In the future, the price of gold is expected to rise above $3600, and silver may rise above $42, but there are risks [8][10][12] Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot prices are falling, and shipping indices show different trends. The global container capacity has increased, and the futures market rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [13][14] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price increased, and the macro - level interest - rate cut expectation improved. Supply was affected by various factors, and demand had certain resilience. The copper price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [15][17][19] - **Alumina**: The spot price decreased, supply increased, and inventory accumulated. The market is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [19][20][21] - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, supply was at a high level, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a low level year - on - year. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price was stable, supply was affected by the off - season, demand was weak, and the price difference with aluminum was expected to narrow. It is expected to be in a shock - upward trend, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, supply was loose, demand was about to enter the peak season, and inventory showed different trends at home and abroad. It is expected to be in a shock, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][27][28] - **Tin**: The spot price increased, supply was tight, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30] - **Nickel**: The spot price was stable, supply was at a high level, demand was different in different fields, and inventory was at a high level overseas and decreased at home. It is expected to be in an interval adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price increased, raw material prices were firm, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is expected to be in an interval shock, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton [34][35][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price decreased, supply was in a tight balance, demand was optimistic, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be in a weak wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price showed signs of stabilizing. The cost support was expected to weaken, supply was at a high level, demand was in a seasonal decline and was expected to recover. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and do long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [40][41][44] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price increased, the futures price fluctuated, the supply increased, the demand was affected by steel production, and the inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a shock, with the reference range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [47][48] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price was in a weak shock, supply was affected by mine accidents and production suspension, demand decreased due to production restrictions, and inventory was in a marginal decline. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49][50][51] - **Coke**: The seventh price increase was implemented, and the eighth one was blocked. Supply decreased due to production restrictions, demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coke [52][53][54] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the market was affected by various news. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at a low level when the price stabilizes in the range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [55][56][57] - **Pig**: The spot price fluctuated, and the short - term supply contraction boosted the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm and be cautious in operation [58][59] - **Corn**: The spot price was stable in some areas and increased in ports. The inventory in Guangzhou Port showed different trends. The price rebounded and adjusted [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term risk - aversion due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising stagflation risks in the US economy, along with a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold's risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes also support these trends [1]. - The trend of gold prices serves as an anchor for silver prices. Currently, there is a slight reduction in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF holdings in terms of capital, and a slight increase in silver's visible inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and stronger, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.21%. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to have soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3516.10 per ounce, up $105.40 (3.09%) from last week; London gold was at $3474.90 per ounce, up $140.65 (4.22%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 2.97% from last week [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The spread between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold was - 5.96 yuan per gram, down 25% from last week; the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.64, down 2.38% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 138,624 lots, down 20.60% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 120,616 lots, an increase of 624 lots; the top 10 totaled 155,263 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 13,767 lots, a decrease of 550 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,190 lots, a decrease of 672 lots [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are crucial [6]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $40.75 per ounce, up $2.20 (5.71%) from last week; London silver was at $40.58 per ounce, up $2.57 (6.76%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 5.02% from last week [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spread between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver was 525.93 yuan per gram, down 13.70% from last week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract was - 24 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from last week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,961,835 lots, up 8.88% from last week. The total visible inventory was 42,794 tons, up 0.90% from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 115,138 lots, a decrease of 681 lots; the top 10 totaled 159,406 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 49,270 lots, a decrease of 354 lots; the top 10 totaled 82,445 lots, an increase of 758 lots [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points from last time; the Fed's total assets are $6,654.234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from last time [8]. - **Economic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, unchanged; the US dollar index is 97.70, down 0.52% from last week; the inflation data shows that the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10 percentage points from last time [8][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,300.41 tons, up 0.08% from last time; the US's are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36,268.07 tons, unchanged [11][12]. - **Fed Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is over 89.8%, and the probability distribution of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also provided [13].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and potential replacement of Fed officials, and central banks of many countries around the world continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price: 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.78 compared to the previous value; trading volume: 37,086.00; open interest: 11,070.00; basis (spot - futures): - 1.79 [1]. Shanghai Silver - Closing price: 9752.00 yuan/ten grams; trading volume: 271,534.00; open interest: 3,508,944.00; basis (spot - futures): - 23.00 [1]. COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price: 3516.10, with a change of 132.60; trading volume: 180,059.00; open interest: 345,850.00; inventory: 38,925,852.75 gold - ounce [1]. COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price: 38.80 dollars/ounce; trading volume: 884,674.00; open interest: 262,870.00; inventory: 518,232,359.97 gold - ounce [1]. 2. Macro - economic Information Eurozone - In August, factory output growth reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new order index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. Germany's manufacturing FMI final value rose to 49.8, the highest in more than two years; France's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 [1]. - ECB President Lagarde said the 2% inflation target has been achieved and measures will be taken to maintain price stability. The acting governor of the Bank of Slovenia said the ECB's "easing cycle is over" [1]. United States - Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the year - on - year rates of producer - side inflation PPI and consumer - side core CPI to rise in July. Fed Chair Powell said the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to weak employment supply and demand, making a September rate cut almost certain, but the non - farm payrolls and CPI data for August need to be watched on September 5th and 11th [1]. United Kingdom - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The year - on - year rates of CPI (core CPI) in July were 3.8% (3.8%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in August was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. Japan - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The year - on - year rates of CPI (CPI) in Tokyo in July (August) were 3.1% (2.6%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (higher than expected but lower than the previous value), and the GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. With the US Treasury Secretary's urging, the Bank of Japan still has a rate - hike expectation by the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 810 - 850; for London silver, the support level around 34 - 37 and the resistance level around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, the support level around 9000 - 9400 and the resistance level around 10000 - 10500 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are weak, alumina is in a low - level oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% has been achieved, and it will take measures to maintain price stability. The "easing cycle" is expected to end, and the ECB is likely to "stand still" for the second consecutive time at the next meeting. The euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years, with strong rebounds in Germany and France [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,645, down 95 from T - 1, and the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,620, up 1 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 158,586, an increase of 37,344 from T - 1 [1] - The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 2.56%, unchanged from T - 1, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 4.72, up 1.74 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,008, down 28 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 356,281, an increase of 65,205 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 19, and the cost of the near - month long and consecutive - first short inter - period arbitrage was 25.58, down 0.60 from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275, down 75 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 1,959, an increase of 591 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 15.00, down 45 from T - 1, and the spot premium was - 30, down 10 from T - 1 [1] Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from T - 1, and the SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 58,500 tons, down 100 tons from T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 3,942.14, down 144.87 from T - 1, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,200.55, down 29.10 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 3,222, unchanged from T - 1, and the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 386 US dollars per ton, down 2 US dollars from T - 1 [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 230, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 177, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,300, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The total inventory of the three places was 33,715, an increase of 719 from T - 1 [1] Other - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,710, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials, and central banks of many countries around the world continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.78 compared to a previous value, and the trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price differences (near - month vs. far - month, spot - to - futures) are also presented [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 37,086.00, and the open interest was 11,070.00, with corresponding changes compared to previous values [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 9775.00 yuan/ten - gram, with details on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price differences [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The trading volume was 271,534.00, and the open interest was 3,508,944.00, along with corresponding changes [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3516.10, with information on trading volume, open interest, and inventory in gold - troy ounces [1]. - **International Gold**: The London gold spot price was 3429.15 dollars/ounce, and there were data on SPDR and iShare gold ETF holdings [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 40.75 dollars/ounce, with trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [1]. - **International Silver**: The London silver spot price was 38.80 dollars/ounce, and there were data on US iShare and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings [1]. Price Ratios - The ratios of gold to silver prices such as Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver, New York futures gold to New York futures silver, and London gold spot to London silver spot are provided, along with their changes [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Commodities**: There are closing prices, trading volumes, and changes for INE crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, NYMEX crude oil, Shanghai copper futures, LME copper spot, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Inter - Bank Offered Rates (SHIBOR) overnight and one - year, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield, TIPS yield, and break - even inflation rate are presented [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate, and euro - to - RMB central parity rate are included [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index are shown with their closing prices and changes [1]. Macroeconomic and Policy Information - **Eurozone**: In August, the factory output growth reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new order index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. The German manufacturing FMI final value rose to 49.8, and the French manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4. The ECB President Lagarde said the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and the ECB may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **US**: Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the US July PPI and core CPI year - on - year rates. Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, but attention should be paid to the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI on September 5th and 11th [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen starting from April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1].