Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to continue the "import rush" from Southeast Asia until mid-June, accelerate the "import rush" from China in June and weaken it in July, and the mild restocking in the U.S. may end in August. The second quarter may see the peak of China's year-on-year export growth rate for the year, followed by a quarterly decline. Under a neutral assumption, China's annual export year-on-year growth rate may be approximately 1.5%. [2][3] - The outcome of China-U.S. tariff negotiations has influenced the pace of the U.S. "import rush" from China. The progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and economies with close trade ties to China has a significant impact on China's exports. [17][42] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64] - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted from tariffs to U.S. fiscal and credit issues. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. [66] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In April, high reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. led shipping companies to reallocate capacity to other routes, causing a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity. The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to intensify in June and weaken in July. [7][14] - The "import rush" is first reflected in freight rates, and the shipment lags behind freight rates. Since June 3, the daily shipment volume from China to the U.S. has been above 49 ships. [8][9] - The U.S. "import rush" from Southeast Asia may lead China's "re - export rush" to last until mid - June at most. [10][15] - The U.S. weak restocking may end in August. [11][15] - The future trend of China's exports depends on tariff changes in the global trade environment. The main export destinations in 2024 were ASEAN, the U.S., the EU, etc. [12][16] - The progress of U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiations may impact China's re - export of labor - intensive products, and the inertia of EU economic policy decisions may affect Sino - EU trade. [13][16] 2. Imports Rush of the U.S. - The outcome of China - U.S. tariff negotiations affects the U.S. "import rush" from China. During the tariff tension period (April 9 - May 9), the number of fully - loaded vessels decreased. During the tariff easing period (from May 12), it boosted the "import rush". [17][20] - In April, high reciprocal tariffs led to a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity, and in late May, the actual shipping data continued to decline. [25][26] - The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to end by mid - June, and after mid - June, the incremental volume of China's "re - export rush" through Southeast Asia will be limited. [31][34] - The U.S. may reach the turning point of inventory growth rate in August. [37][38] 3. Tariff Negotiations - China's current export demand may be from backlogged orders, and the future export trend depends on tariff changes. The suspension of Trump's reciprocal tariffs for some economies will expire on July 8. [42][43] - The U.S. has only signed agreements with China and the UK, and the EU - U.S. negotiation progresses slowly. The U.S. increasing steel and aluminum tariffs will pressure the negotiation. [47] - Sino - European relations seem to improve, but the EU's potential restrictions on China and the inertia of its economic policy may affect trade. [48][49] - Japan, Indonesia, India and the U.S. have relatively good negotiation progress, but India's stance has hardened recently. [52][54] - Attention should be paid to the U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiation progress and its impact on China's entrepot trade. [53][55] 4. Different Scenarios - China's exports from May to July will maintain resilience, but the U.S. has increased non - tariff barriers against China, and the Sino - U.S. trade trend is uncertain. [56][62] - Three scenarios are assumed: in the optimistic scenario, China's 2025 export growth rate may be around 3%; in the neutral scenario, it may be around 1.5%; in the pessimistic scenario, it may be around - 2%. [58][63] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64][65] 5. Asset Outlook - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. The bond market has value for dip - buying after the funding pressure subsides, and the stock market and commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [66][67]

Group 1: EU and US Tariff Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US, aiming to resolve some disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate tariff retaliation against the US [2][4] - As of June 19, major European stock indices fell over 1%, indicating market concerns regarding the ongoing tariff negotiations [2] - The US has raised tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs to 50% if no agreement is reached [5] Group 2: Global Investment Risks - The UN warns that due to tariff policy uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year [3][17] - The UN's report indicates a projected 11% decline in global FDI in 2024, following a significant drop in 2023 [18] - The report highlights that trade tensions have led to a downward adjustment of most FDI outlook indicators, with early 2025 data showing record lows in transaction and project activities [19] Group 3: Internal EU Dynamics - Internal divisions within the EU are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation against the US, while others like Italy and Hungary prefer continued negotiations [9][10] - The EU is considering a 10% "reciprocal tariff" along with lower tariff quotas in sectors like steel and automobiles, which some member states may reluctantly accept [11] - The EU has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment to reduce its trade surplus with the US, which stands at €198 billion annually [12]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are marked by tensions, with President Trump insisting on a fair trade agreement or else higher tariffs will be imposed on the EU [3][4][12]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Trump criticized the EU for not presenting a fair trade agreement, emphasizing that the EU must either propose a good deal or face financial consequences [3][4]. - The US and EU are under pressure to reach an agreement before the July 9 deadline for tariff suspension, with negotiations accelerating recently [5][7]. - The EU aims to finalize an agreement before the expiration of the 90-day suspension period to avoid higher reciprocal tariffs [7]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump has threatened to impose a 20% tariff on the EU due to the significant trade surplus the EU has with the US, which is currently on hold [7][13]. - The EU has already approved tariffs on $21 billion worth of US goods in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs, with additional tariffs on $95 billion of US products being prepared [14]. - The EU's exports to the US are significantly affected by Trump's tariffs, covering €380 billion worth of products, which accounts for about 70% of total EU exports to the US [13]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The negotiations are complicated by the need for the EU to address the trade deficit issue, which requires a combination of market access, purchasing US products, and investment in the US [5][10]. - The Oxford Economics report indicates that higher tariffs could negatively impact trade, with the US facing supply shocks that may lower growth and increase inflation, while the EU may experience demand shocks [14].

Core Insights - The U.S. is urging Thailand to address issues related to tax measures and non-tariff barriers [1] Group 1 - U.S. officials are focusing on Thailand's tax policies and non-tariff barriers as part of trade discussions [1]

日本政府讨论了非关税壁垒和贸易扩张问题。 ...

日本政府：日本首席谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正和美国商务部长Lutnick于6月5日会面，双方会 谈了110分钟，赤泽亮正强烈要求重新研议美国关税；双方讨论了非关税壁垒和贸易扩张。 ...

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may replace tariffs as key tools in trade conflicts[2] - The U.S. average effective tariff increased by nearly 9 percentage points from 1896 to 1899, highlighting the historical reliance on tariffs[2] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, exchange rate manipulation has become a significant weapon in international trade competition[2] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. international investment net gap is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2025, indicating unsustainable trends in trade deficits[3][31] - In 2024, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached $917.83 billion, a significant increase of $132.95 billion from the previous year[30] - The proportion of the U.S. trade deficit attributed to China decreased from 47.48% in 2018 to 24.33% in 2024, reverting to levels seen in 2004[34] Group 3: Future Trade Policies - The U.S. government may implement more non-tariff barriers and currency interventions if trade tensions escalate, similar to measures taken during the U.S.-Japan trade competition from 1970 to 1993[4] - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to reach historical highs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit and impacting trade policy[4] Group 4: Strategies for Domestic Enterprises - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore non-U.S. export markets and adapt production capacities to meet European trade regulations[7] - The key to "exporting to domestic sales" lies in managing payment terms, with potential improvements in the policy environment for accounts receivable[7] - The "going abroad" strategy should focus on cost management, particularly labor costs, as domestic industries face challenges in maintaining competitiveness[7]

必须努力重建自由贸易。 消除非关税壁垒的尝试会带来好处。 英国央行行长贝利：不要指望一直都能保持平衡的贸易状态。 ...

Core Points - The second round of tariff negotiations between South Korea and the United States began on June 20 in Washington, focusing on key issues such as "reciprocal tariffs," non-tariff barriers, and trade imbalances [1][2] - This round of talks is significant as it occurs under the backdrop of the Trump administration's "America First" strategy and is seen as a test of the new and old policy directions of both countries [1] - The negotiations are expected to cover six major areas, including balanced trade, non-tariff barriers, economic security, digital trade, rules of origin, and improvement of the business environment [1] South Korea's Position - South Korea is particularly concerned about the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports of steel, aluminum, and certain automotive products, which are framed under the "reciprocal tariffs" policy [2] - The South Korean delegation aims to negotiate significant tariff reductions from the U.S. by leveraging strategic industry cooperation and increasing U.S. product imports as bargaining chips [2] - The South Korean government emphasizes the importance of strategic industry collaboration in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors within the Indo-Pacific region to persuade the U.S. [2] U.S. Position - The U.S. has expressed a desire for South Korea to eliminate various non-tariff barriers, including restrictions on beef imports lasting over 30 months [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that trade partners lacking sincerity in tariff negotiations may face the reinstatement of previously announced "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. will accept South Korea's proposed timeline for reaching a framework agreement before the July 8 tariff buffer period expires [2] Political Context - The upcoming South Korean presidential election on June 3 adds urgency to the negotiations, as achieving a favorable outcome in tariff discussions is viewed as a key measure of the current government's economic diplomacy effectiveness [2]

杜明认为，英美EPD协议可能标志着国际经济法从"硬法"向"软法"的转型。 英美EPD剖析 第一财经：英美EPD协议可能为其他国家与美国的贸易谈判提供哪些参考？ 杜明：美国的政策意图非常明确，即以对等关税为筹码扩大市场准入、削减数字税等非关税壁垒。这些 核心诉求不仅体现在英美协议中，也将成为未来美日、欧美等经济体谈判的基准框架。 英美协议细节可能不尽如人意，但具有较强示范意义。美国不会简单复制协议内容，毕竟各国国情存在 显著差异，且谈判成果也存在不确定性。但本质上，特朗普政府将新增关税作为谈判杠杆，实现利益最 大化的策略十分清晰——最保守估计，也可维持本届政府上台前的原有关税水平，而通过谈判，美方认 为有可能获取额外市场准入或其他利益。 近日，美国财政部长贝森特称，美国正与18个关键伙伴推进贸易协议。但报道显示，美国的贸易谈判推 进并不顺利。 欧盟委员会最高贸易官员欧委会贸易司总司长魏安德（Sabine Weyand）称，欧盟仍需冷静行事，不要 屈服于美国 "速战速决"的愿望。日本也明确表示，希望在与美方的贸易关税谈判中坚持立场，推动全 面取消其对日本汽车进口征收的25%关税，不要冒着国内政治反弹的风险而妥协。 ...