Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may replace tariffs as key tools in trade conflicts[2] - The U.S. average effective tariff increased by nearly 9 percentage points from 1896 to 1899, highlighting the historical reliance on tariffs[2] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, exchange rate manipulation has become a significant weapon in international trade competition[2] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. international investment net gap is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2025, indicating unsustainable trends in trade deficits[3][31] - In 2024, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached $917.83 billion, a significant increase of $132.95 billion from the previous year[30] - The proportion of the U.S. trade deficit attributed to China decreased from 47.48% in 2018 to 24.33% in 2024, reverting to levels seen in 2004[34] Group 3: Future Trade Policies - The U.S. government may implement more non-tariff barriers and currency interventions if trade tensions escalate, similar to measures taken during the U.S.-Japan trade competition from 1970 to 1993[4] - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to reach historical highs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit and impacting trade policy[4] Group 4: Strategies for Domestic Enterprises - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore non-U.S. export markets and adapt production capacities to meet European trade regulations[7] - The key to "exporting to domestic sales" lies in managing payment terms, with potential improvements in the policy environment for accounts receivable[7] - The "going abroad" strategy should focus on cost management, particularly labor costs, as domestic industries face challenges in maintaining competitiveness[7]

必须努力重建自由贸易。 消除非关税壁垒的尝试会带来好处。 英国央行行长贝利：不要指望一直都能保持平衡的贸易状态。 ...

Core Points - The second round of tariff negotiations between South Korea and the United States began on June 20 in Washington, focusing on key issues such as "reciprocal tariffs," non-tariff barriers, and trade imbalances [1][2] - This round of talks is significant as it occurs under the backdrop of the Trump administration's "America First" strategy and is seen as a test of the new and old policy directions of both countries [1] - The negotiations are expected to cover six major areas, including balanced trade, non-tariff barriers, economic security, digital trade, rules of origin, and improvement of the business environment [1] South Korea's Position - South Korea is particularly concerned about the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports of steel, aluminum, and certain automotive products, which are framed under the "reciprocal tariffs" policy [2] - The South Korean delegation aims to negotiate significant tariff reductions from the U.S. by leveraging strategic industry cooperation and increasing U.S. product imports as bargaining chips [2] - The South Korean government emphasizes the importance of strategic industry collaboration in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors within the Indo-Pacific region to persuade the U.S. [2] U.S. Position - The U.S. has expressed a desire for South Korea to eliminate various non-tariff barriers, including restrictions on beef imports lasting over 30 months [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that trade partners lacking sincerity in tariff negotiations may face the reinstatement of previously announced "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. will accept South Korea's proposed timeline for reaching a framework agreement before the July 8 tariff buffer period expires [2] Political Context - The upcoming South Korean presidential election on June 3 adds urgency to the negotiations, as achieving a favorable outcome in tariff discussions is viewed as a key measure of the current government's economic diplomacy effectiveness [2]

杜明认为，英美EPD协议可能标志着国际经济法从"硬法"向"软法"的转型。 英美EPD剖析 第一财经：英美EPD协议可能为其他国家与美国的贸易谈判提供哪些参考？ 杜明：美国的政策意图非常明确，即以对等关税为筹码扩大市场准入、削减数字税等非关税壁垒。这些 核心诉求不仅体现在英美协议中，也将成为未来美日、欧美等经济体谈判的基准框架。 英美协议细节可能不尽如人意，但具有较强示范意义。美国不会简单复制协议内容，毕竟各国国情存在 显著差异，且谈判成果也存在不确定性。但本质上，特朗普政府将新增关税作为谈判杠杆，实现利益最 大化的策略十分清晰——最保守估计，也可维持本届政府上台前的原有关税水平，而通过谈判，美方认 为有可能获取额外市场准入或其他利益。 近日，美国财政部长贝森特称，美国正与18个关键伙伴推进贸易协议。但报道显示，美国的贸易谈判推 进并不顺利。 欧盟委员会最高贸易官员欧委会贸易司总司长魏安德（Sabine Weyand）称，欧盟仍需冷静行事，不要 屈服于美国 "速战速决"的愿望。日本也明确表示，希望在与美方的贸易关税谈判中坚持立场，推动全 面取消其对日本汽车进口征收的25%关税，不要冒着国内政治反弹的风险而妥协。 ...

针对关税问题，欧盟突然强硬起来！ 来看详细报道！ 欧盟对美强硬表态 据参考消息援引西班牙《阿贝赛报》网站15日报道，欧盟成员国贸易部长已经排除接受与美国达成类似英国所 签署协议的可能性，英国已经承担了10%的基础关税，以避免对汽车和金属征收其他税费。 报道称，15日的欧盟贸易部长会议是在华盛顿决定"暂停"所谓"对等关税"90天之后的第37天召开的。根据"对 等关税"，美国将对欧盟产品征收20%的关税。布鲁塞尔已经威胁说，如果达不成协议，将以两个独立的一揽 子方案进行反击，而这两个方案可能会影响到总价值达1160亿欧元的美国商品。 欧盟理事会轮值主席国波兰的经济部长米哈乌·巴拉诺夫斯基表示，欧洲不会"满足于"与英国类似的协议。他 说："我认为我们可以取得比保持很高关税更好的结果。" 报道称，此前欧盟向美国提出相互取消任何工业产品的所有关税，但特朗普政府仍执迷不悟地要求欧盟对其在 欧洲销售的产品免征增值税。 另据观察者网援引《华尔街日报》15日报道，数名欧盟国家官员当天放风称，欧盟与美国的关税谈判正在取得 进展，欧盟寻求达成一项关税降幅大于美英、中美协议的贸易协定。有欧盟官员指出，美国给英国和中国开出 的条件不足 ...

文/珠玑说 无论是特朗普在国内推动药价改革却绑定国际汽车贸易的施压，还是盟友日本突然对美国展现出的贸易强硬姿态，都说明，这场博弈还未结束，此次会谈 中，美方最想要的中方没有给，日本会做出怎样的强硬举动呢？ (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 中美贸易战关税刚迎来缓和，日内瓦谈判桌上达成了部分关税回调共识，然而，新的风向和对抗已悄然展开。 日内瓦的"休战符" 中美贸易战，刚透出一丝暖意就又寒风乍起？日内瓦谈判桌上的"实质性进展"，听着像那么回事，双方说好了，从5月14号起，关税大棒暂时收一收，退回 到4月2号以前的水平。 可就在大家以为能喘口气的时候，新的火药味儿已经悄然弥漫开来，这次握手，更像是一场复杂棋局中的暂停，而非终局的哨声。 表面上看，这次谈判成果显著，美国取消了清单里高达91%的加征关税，中国也投桃报李，撤了对等比例的反制关税。 具体数字更扎眼：美国对中国商品的关税税率，从先前吓人的145%，"大刀阔斧"砍到了30%，这里头还包含了那笔备受争议的20%"芬太尼税"，中国对美国 货的关税也降到了10%，双方似乎都拿出了不小的诚意。 但猫腻往往藏在细节里，美国那边有一项关键的24%对 ...

金十数据整理：5月12日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 1. 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布：中美各取消91%的关税，暂停实施24%的关税。 2. 商务部召开外贸企业圆桌会：全力为外贸企业纾困解难，提供更多支持。 3. 央行等部门：加大广州南沙海洋产业，商业航天、全域无人产业的支持力度。 4. 中国开展了打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动，近期还将组织一系列行动，而此前实施出口管制的中重 稀土就包含在其中。 2. 当地时间5月12日，库尔德工人党决定自行解散。 3. 据悉苹果将提高秋季iPhone价格，但避免归咎于关税。 4. 美国财长贝森特：我们将研究如何解决非关税壁垒的问题。 5. 美联储理事库格勒支持将利率维持在当前水平不变，仍认为关税会产生重大影响。 6. 受中美经贸会谈消息影响，现货黄金一度跌破3210美元/盎司，国际油价涨超3%。 7. 特朗普表示，药品价格降幅在59%到80%，甚至可能达到90%，将对那些拒绝降低药品价格的国家征 收关税。 国际新闻： 1. 花旗将下一次美联储降息的预测时间从六月推迟至七月。 ...

美国财长贝森特：我们将研究如何解决非关税壁垒的问题。 ...

美国总统特朗普：与英国达成的贸易协议将降低美国商品的非关税壁垒。 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]