Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.625%, marking the highest level since October 2008 [1] Group 2 - The increase in the yield indicates a significant shift in the bond market, reflecting changing economic conditions and investor sentiment [1] - This rise in yield may impact borrowing costs and investment strategies within the financial sector [1] - The historical context of the yield reaching this level suggests potential implications for monetary policy and economic outlook in Japan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents the performance of global asset markets on August 25, 2025, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, stock indices of major economies, stock index futures trading data, government bond futures trading data, and money market conditions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc. are presented. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 4.276, with a latest change of 0.021, a weekly change of - 0.058, a monthly change of - 0.136, and a yearly change of 0.362 [2] - **2 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes of 2 - year government bonds in major economies like the US, UK, Germany, etc. are provided. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 3.790, with a latest change of 0.050, a weekly change of 0.050, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of - 0.140 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - **US dollar against emerging - economy currencies**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of the US dollar against currencies of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc. are shown. For example, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 5.412, with a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.45%, a monthly change of - 3.17%, and a yearly change of - 1.31% [2] - **Renminbi**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are presented. For example, the on - shore RMB exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 7.154, with a latest change of - 0.19%, a weekly change of - 0.44%, a monthly change of - 0.35%, and a yearly change of - 0.29% [2] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of major economies such as the US (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq), UK, France, etc. are given. For example, the S&P 500 index on August 25, 2025, was 6439.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a weekly change of - 0.15%, a monthly change of 0.78%, and a yearly change of 16.17% [2] - **Emerging economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of emerging economies such as Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. are provided. For example, the Hang Seng Index on August 25, 2025, was 25829.910, with a latest change of 1.94%, a weekly change of 2.59%, a monthly change of 1.05%, and a yearly change of 50.97% [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: - Yields and their percentage changes of investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices in the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index on August 25, 2025, was 3463.860, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a weekly change of 0.37%, a monthly change of 1.36%, and a yearly change of 4.30% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3883.56, with a percentage change of 1.51% [3] - **Valuation**: PE(TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are presented. For example, the PE(TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.97, with a环比 change of 0.00 [3] - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are given. For example, the 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 was - 0.62, with a环比 change of - 0.01 [3] - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 177.24, and the 5 - day average value was - 340.99 [3] - **Trading Volume**: Latest values and环比 changes of trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 31411.37, with a环比 change of 5944.27 [3] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage basis of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was 5.38, with a percentage basis of 0.12% [3] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.145, with a percentage change of 0.00% [4] - **Money Market**: - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (in basis points) are presented. For example, R001 was 1.3901%, with a daily change of - 9.00 basis points [4] - **Big - Category Asset Morning Report**: Values and percentage changes of big - category assets on August 25, 2025, are provided. For example, the value was 1602.450, with a latest change of 0.31% [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report (Gold and Silver) [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Fed Chair Powell's remarks on potential policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure, have raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may lead to an upward - trending precious metals market. It is recommended that investors go long on dips [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Policies - US: The PPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate in July increased. The 8 - month one - and five - year inflation expectations were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected. The outstanding public debt was $3.72 trillion, up $96.8 billion from last week. The Treasury plans to raise cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September and issue over $1 trillion in bonds in Q3. The Fed's reserve balance decreased, while the Treasury's cash account increased. The Fed's discount and seasonal loans to commercial banks changed, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased [7][11][17] - Europe: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMIs were higher than expected. The ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - Japan: The July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The Q2 GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [3] Market Performance - Bond Market: US short -, medium -, and long - term Treasury yields weakened. Medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields declined. The spread between long - and short - term Treasury yields widened. The spread between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury yields decreased [21][25][28][51] - Stock Market: Not mentioned in the report - Commodity Market: Gold: COMEX gold non - commercial long - to - short ratio decreased, ETF holdings decreased, total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads were at a relatively low level, and the basis was also at a low level. Silver: COMEX silver non - commercial long - to - short ratio increased, ETF holdings increased, total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver increased. Silver futures and spot spreads and basis were within a reasonable range [60][79][83] - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro - to - dollar exchange rate increased, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased [54] Investment Strategies - Precious Metals: For gold, investors are advised to go long on dips, with attention to support and resistance levels. For gold spreads, investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for gold futures spreads and basis. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for most spread arbitrage opportunities [3][68][72] - Others: Investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for "gold - to - silver ratio", "gold - to - oil ratio", and "gold - to - copper ratio" [97][100]

Group 1 - The yield on French 10-year government bonds increased by 9.3 basis points, reaching a daily high of 3.511%, approaching the peak of 3.631% from March 6 [1] - The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 6.9 basis points, reported at 3.595% [1] - The yield on Spanish 10-year government bonds also increased by 6.9 basis points, reaching 3.370% [1] Group 2 - The yield on Greek 10-year government bonds rose by 7.8 basis points, reported at 3.447% [1] - The yield on French 30-year government bonds increased by 8.5 basis points, reaching 4.393%, nearing the peak of 4.522% from November 16, 2011 [1] - The yield on French 2-year government bonds rose by 4.0 basis points, stabilizing near the daily high [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Pimco's global economic advisor, Richard Clarida, indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to cautiously lower policy rates soon, reaffirming its commitment to its dual mandate while making only minor clarifications to its monetary policy framework [1] - Barclays and BNP Paribas predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, citing a shift in Powell's stance on employment market risks [2] - Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, warns of increasing economic downturn risks in the U.S., with a 49% probability of recession within the next year [2] Group 2: Bond Market Predictions - Citigroup maintains its forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, while adjusting other benchmarks to align with expectations for a steeper curve and lower policy rates [2] - The new basic predictions for U.S. Treasury yields include 3.50% for the 2-year, 3.65% for the 5-year, and 4.70% for the 30-year [2] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting, with a majority of economists predicting no adjustment [3] - eToro analysts suggest that Singapore's Monetary Authority may ease monetary policy following July's CPI data indicating cooling inflation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market followed the stock market. The influence of the stock index on the bond market weakened. Short - term focus on stock market changes: a strong stock market will suppress the bond market, while a stock market correction will benefit bond bulls. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2][35][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap on Monday and then fell sharply, fluctuated horizontally on Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday, rebounded after hitting the bottom on Thursday, and declined slightly on Friday. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 1.05%, the 10 - year treasury bond fell 0.52%, the 5 - year treasury bond fell 0.28%, and the 2 - year treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] - As of August 22, the maturity yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel compared with August 15. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 3, 4, 3, and 3 basis points respectively [8] 3.2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Data - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2027.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and the expenditure was 1946.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.04%. From January to July, the cumulative general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [11] - In July, national tax revenue was 1801.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, and non - tax revenue was 225.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [13] - From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2312.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%, and the expenditure was 5428.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% [16] 3.3 Unemployment Rate - In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.8%, higher than the same period last year by 0.7 percentage points; the 25 - 29 age group was 6.9%, higher than the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points; the 30 - 59 age group was 3.9%, the same as the same period last year [19] 3.4 South Korean Export Data - In the first 20 days of August, South Korea's exports increased by 7.6% year - on - year. Semiconductor exports were 8.71 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%, accounting for 24.5% of the total exports in the first 20 days of August, up 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year [21] 3.5 New Home Sales Data - Since June, the decline rate of the national new home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.36 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From August 1 to 20, it was 1.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [23] 3.6 Price Data - As of August 22, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 115.53. Prices showed a slight upward trend in the first 22 days of August, but the upward slope was much lower than the same period last year. In July, energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The average domestic refined oil price in August was lower than that in July [25] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly in the first 22 days of August. After reaching a closing high on July 25, it continued to decline. Short - term inflation pressure is limited [28] 3.7 Capital Interest Rate Data - This week, capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.45%, and it fell to 1.41% on Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, and it fell to 1.47% on Friday. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.67%, higher than last week's average of 1.64% [31][32] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Market Logic and Trading Strategy - In July, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate was significantly lower than market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, and the service industry production index were all lower than expected. Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, while exports exceeded expectations. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council will take measures to stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market [35] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [36]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the UK 2-year government bond yield reached its highest level since June 9, reported at 3.999%, with an intraday increase of approximately 3 basis points [1]

Core Insights - Japan's 30-year government bond yield has reached a historic high since its introduction in 1999 [1] Group 1 - The yield increase indicates a significant shift in the bond market dynamics in Japan [1]

Core Insights - Despite a slowdown in the pace of price growth, Japan's consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by persistently high rice prices, leading to increased market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1][6][7] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous month, while economists had expected a 3.0% increase [1][7] - A deeper price measure, excluding both energy and fresh food, remained stable at a 3.4% increase, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan [1][4] Economic Commentary - Economists emphasize that a decline in core CPI does not necessarily indicate weakening inflation, as food prices continue to rise, reflecting companies' willingness to pass on costs to consumers [4][8] - The recent drop in energy prices contributed to the overall inflation slowdown, but underlying price pressures remain strong due to rising rice prices and labor costs [4][5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with a 51% probability of a rate increase by the end of October, up from 45% prior to the inflation data release [7][8] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, driven by market bets on rising policy rates [7] Political Context - Rising living costs have led to significant public dissatisfaction, impacting the recent elections and putting pressure on Prime Minister Kishida's government to consider more fiscal measures to support consumers [5][8] Future Projections - Economists predict that while the Bank of Japan could raise rates based on inflation data, they may wait to assess wage growth dynamics and the impact of monetary policy on global markets, with December or January being more likely for a rate hike, though October remains a possibility [8]

Group 1 - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 2.655% [1]