央行重启国债买卖的目的有三个：1.流动性管理；2.影响利率水平；3.配合政府发债。本轮央行买债始 于2024年8月，自2025年1月起，因债券收益率下行过快，央行暂停买卖国债操作。2024年10月9日，央 行公告称，央行、财政部建立联合工作组，并召开工作组首次正式会议。会议确立了联合工作组运行机 制，主要内容聚焦债券市场平稳运行和央行公开市场操作国债买卖。2025年9月第二次工作会议提前召 开，肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作，同时提及为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环 境。在去年年底央行买入的国债逐步到期的背景下，年内央行重启国债买卖的概率仍存。 图为近一年国债收益率变化（单位：%、BP） 目前"弱现实+强预期"的宏观逻辑持续发酵，对债市形成"供给收敛、物价回升、风险偏好提升"三大利 空效应。系列政策出台后，市场对通缩的定价明显减弱。从当前公布的通胀数据可以看出，9月PPI同比 降幅继续收窄至2.3%，核心CPI同比上涨1%，其中，有低基数及金价大涨等原因，但从整体看，通胀处 于筑底回升的状态中，但上升的关键仍在需求端。 从资产比价看，今年以来债券性价比明显降低，超长债基当前仍处于亏损状态，导致新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has adjusted with a steepening yield curve, and the correlation between stock and bond markets has weakened as of September. The overall bond market has returned to a fluctuating range without significant changes in the funding and economic fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - As of the latest data, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds are 1.41%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.15%, reflecting changes of 0.23, -0.93, 1.35, and 1.00 basis points respectively since the end of August [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a reasonable liquidity level, with a net injection of 3,865 billion yuan in August through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The current DR001 and DR007 rates are fluctuating around 1.4% and 1.45%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - The trade data for August shows a year-on-year export growth rate of 4.4% and an import growth rate of 1.3%, both of which have decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.40%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating improvements in both supply and demand sides [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - There is a growing expectation for the PBOC to restart government bond trading, influenced by policy signals and changes in liquidity operations [6]. - The PBOC has been utilizing various tools for medium to long-term funding, with the balance of reverse repos increasing significantly since the end of 2024 [6]. - The necessity to restart government bond trading has increased due to the declining balance of government bonds held by the PBOC [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - With the PBOC's active liquidity support and reduced impact from government bond issuance, significant fluctuations in the funding environment are unlikely in September, and short-term bond trends are expected to remain stable [7]. - The long-term bullish logic for the stock market remains unchanged, which continues to exert downward pressure on long-term bonds [7].

上周，事件驱动债市放大波动，而本周，债市重回偏弱格局。 市场风险偏好有所变化 7月以来，股债市场整体呈现"跷跷板"效应。在全球流动性宽松、美元资产重新配置的大背景下，我国基 本面及政策面趋稳形成相对优势，A股由此开启流动性"牛市"，并出现一定赚钱效应，吸引资金稳步流 入，债市随之承压。不过，受益于央行呵护流动性以及美联储降息预期进一步强化，加之理财及债基赎回 压力相对可控，债市相对"抗跌"。 近期，股指期货远月合约贴水幅度扩大，且股指看涨期权隐含波动率下行幅度明显大于看跌期权，该数据 于上周上半周到达阶段性高点，下半周以来有所修复，说明市场风险偏好回落后再度回升，这有利于股 债"跷跷板"效应的发挥。 图为30年期国债期货主力连续合约日线走势 证监会就公募基金销售费用管理规定征求意见 9月5日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》，明确以下几点：一是 赎回费全额计入基金财产，无论投资者持有时长如何，赎回费不再返还给销售机构，而是全部计入基金资 产；二是统一赎回费率标准，将股票型、混合型、债券型基金以及FOF基金的短期赎回费率拉平，持有期 不足6个月的投资者需缴纳至少0.5%的赎回费； ...

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a decline of 0.62% as of September 5, 2025, with the latest price at 108.84 yuan, while it has increased by 0.93% over the past week as of September 4, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 45 billion yuan in electronic savings bonds from September 10 to September 19, 2025, with a 3-year bond offering a coupon rate of 1.63% and a 5-year bond at 1.7%, each with a maximum issuance of 22.5 billion yuan [2] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 20.202 billion yuan, with a recent net outflow of 1.46 billion yuan, although there has been a net inflow of 10.32 billion yuan over the last five trading days [2] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which includes bonds that meet the deliverable conditions of the near-month contract for 30-year government bond futures [3] - The top ten weighted bonds in the index as of August 29, 2025, include various special and附息国债, collectively accounting for 100% of the index [3] - The risk level of the fund is rated as medium-low, indicating that it differs from fixed-income financial instruments like bank savings and bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held the second leadership meeting of their joint working group to enhance coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to support economic recovery in a complex market environment [1]. Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The meeting acknowledged the achievements made since the establishment of the joint working group last year, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between the Ministry and the Bank [1]. - Key topics discussed included the operation of financial markets, management of government bond issuance, central bank operations in government bonds, and the improvement of offshore RMB government bond issuance mechanisms [1]. - Both parties agreed that the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide strong support for economic recovery [1]. Group 2: Future Directions - The next steps involve continuing to leverage the joint working group mechanism to deepen cooperation and enhance coordination [1]. - There is a focus on promoting the stable and healthy development of China's bond market and ensuring effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since mid - June this year, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase, approaching key levels. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and one possible path is the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading, but it is expected to be postponed. The earliest restart may be around August [2][6][12]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity, with simultaneous increases in claims on the government and government deposits. The short - term yield declined rapidly after the central bank started trading treasury bonds last August, opening up downward space for the long - term yield [8][20]. - When the central bank's short - term treasury bonds mature, it does not directly lead to a contraction in liquidity. Instead, it indirectly affects liquidity by reducing government deposits. The central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. - Currently, the bond market is over - valued, and the long - term yield may be below the central bank's desirable range. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [2][34]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 When Will the Central Bank Restart Treasury Bond Trading? - Since mid - June, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.65%, and the 30 - year around 1.85%. The 1 - year yield has decreased by 4bp from June 13 - 26. The 20 - year yield has dropped 3.5bp and remains a relative convex point on the curve. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and the restart of treasury bond trading is one possible path [12]. 3.2 The Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Directly Releases Liquidity - From August to December last year, the central bank announced a cumulative net purchase of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds. By combining direct purchase and borrowing - and - selling methods, the estimated cumulative net purchase from August to December 2024 was close to 900 billion yuan. As of June 28 this year, the central bank has suspended treasury bond trading, and the cumulative maturity of treasury bonds from January to May was about 444 billion yuan [8][14]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity. First, commercial banks buy treasury bonds, causing a decline in "other depository financial institution deposits" and an increase in government deposits. Then, the central bank buys from commercial banks in the secondary market, leading to an increase in claims on the government and a recovery of other depository financial institution deposits [20]. - After the central bank started trading treasury bonds in August last year, the short - term yield declined rapidly, and the 1 - year yield and DR007 inverted. In September, the short - term yield dropped by 12.2bp, followed by 10 - year yield declines of 12.7bp in November and 34.5bp in December [8][20]. 3.3 The Maturity of Central Bank - Held Treasury Bonds Does Not Directly Affect Liquidity and May Not Require Immediate Renewal - When treasury bonds held by the central bank mature, it leads to a reduction in both claims on the government and government deposits, resulting in a balance - sheet contraction. The maturity of short - term treasury bonds does not directly contract liquidity but indirectly affects it by reducing government deposits. Therefore, the central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. 3.4 The Restart of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading May Still Need to Wait - The central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January this year, mainly considering two points: the fiscal supply situation and whether the treasury bond yield is within the central bank's desirable range. The central bank will resume operations based on market supply - demand and yield changes [28]. - From the perspective of fiscal supply rhythm, the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading may be postponed. August and November are expected to be key points for liquidity disturbances in the second half of this year, with estimated net financing exceeding 900 billion and 800 billion respectively. Therefore, the earliest restart may be around August [29]. 3.5 More Marginal Changes Are Needed for Interest Rates to Break Through Downward - Currently, the bond market has a high winning probability but low odds, with over - valuation and long - term yields potentially below the central bank's desirable range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fit value is significantly higher than the current 1.65% level. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [34].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resistance Levels for Bond Yields** - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. **Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading** - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. **Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements** - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. **Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations** - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. **Interest Rate Cut Potential** - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. **Current Market Liquidity Conditions** - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. **Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates** - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. **Future Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].