Group 1: Inflation Trends - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6%, and up from the previous value of 2.4% [1][2] - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1][2] - The overall CPI data indicates a subtle resurgence of inflationary pressures, prompting a reassessment of market expectations regarding inflation [2] Group 2: Housing Market - The housing index increased by 0.2% in June, contributing significantly to the overall index rise [3] - Housing is viewed as a necessity with stable demand, showcasing strong anti-inflation properties [3] - Real estate investments, particularly Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), are expected to provide considerable returns due to stable rental income and property appreciation potential [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - The energy index rose by 0.9% in June, with gasoline prices increasing by 1.0% [4] - Over the past year, the energy index has decreased by 0.8%, with gasoline prices down by 8.3% [4] - Long-term opportunities are anticipated in the clean energy sector, driven by increasing global demand for renewable energy sources [4] Group 4: Food Industry - The food index rose by 0.3% in June, with household and away-from-home food prices increasing by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively [5] - The food sector is characterized by rigid demand, less affected by economic cycles, and is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and safety standards [5] - Companies with brand advantages and those focusing on organic and health food production are expected to thrive in the competitive landscape [5] Group 5: Non-Food and Non-Energy Sectors - The index excluding food and energy rose by 0.2% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [6] - Sectors such as home furnishings, healthcare, and entertainment are showing upward trends, while used and new vehicle prices are declining [6] - The healthcare sector remains attractive due to stable demand, especially for innovative pharmaceutical companies and high-end medical service providers [6]

智通财经7月15日电，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应该降息3个点，"美国通胀非常低"。 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，美国6月通胀如预期加速，投资者纷纷买入美国国债，推低了收益率。美国6月 CPI同比上涨2.7%，高于5月份2.4%的涨幅。核心CPI年率从2.8%上升至2.9%。美联储的通胀目标是 2%。美国PPI数据定于明天公布，预计也将加速。投资者正在仔细研究通胀数据，寻找关税影响的迹 象。6月份的数据支持美联储按兵不动，但CPI涨幅未超预期可能会缓解对美联储采取更强硬立场的担 忧。数据公布前，美债收益率稳步走高，数据公布后回落。10年期美债收益率为4.422%，2年期国债收 益率为3.912%。 美国通胀加速，美国国债收益率下滑 美国10年国债收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US June CPI report is anticipated to be a critical indicator of inflation trends, particularly in relation to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. A significant increase in CPI could validate the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, while a lower-than-expected reading may provide ammunition for Trump to criticize Fed Chair Powell [2][3]. Group 1: CPI Data Expectations - The consensus among the Federal Reserve and private sector forecasters is that inflation will rise in the summer as companies pass on the costs of Trump’s tariffs to consumers. Previous measures to mitigate these costs are losing effectiveness [5]. - The median estimates for the June CPI report suggest a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, and a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in May [5][6]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Financial markets are on alert for the CPI report, with expectations that rising inflation could lead to a cautious stance from Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts. The next three months are deemed crucial for inflation data [9]. - A higher-than-expected CPI report could delay the Fed's rate cuts and potentially hinder the recent upward momentum in the US stock market [10]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the breadth of inflationary pressures in the goods sector, as this will influence reactions in the bond market and overall market sentiment [10][11].

如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

北京时间周二（7月15日）欧盘时段，美元指数交投于97.94附近，现货白银目前交投于38.28美元/盎 司，今日开盘于38.16美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探38.39美元/盎司，最低触及37.88美元/盎 司。晚间关注即将公布的美国6月CPI数据，市场预期整体将升高，显示通胀走强，而会打压美联储降 息预期，对白银造成利空压力，而会打压银价进一步回落。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年7月15日） 【基本面解析】 北京时间周二20:30，美国劳工统计局将公布6月份CPI报告。据路透社调查，经济学家预期美国6月CPI 同比增幅将从前月的2.4%升至2.7%，核心CPI同比增幅预计从2.8%升至3%。 调查并显示，美国6月CPI环比料上升0.3%，核心CPI环比预计也上升0.3%。 联邦基金利率期货定价显示，今年首次降息充分定价指向10月，全年宽松空间约为43个基点。如果最新 CPI高于预期，或将进一步推迟美联储宽松的步伐，反之则有望推动美联储提前到9月采取行动。 美联储6月会议纪要称，"大多数与会者"认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的，关税带来的任何价格冲击预 计都是"暂时的或适度的"。 | 名称 | 最新价 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

关税"通胀雷"今夜引爆？ 美国6月CPI将于今晚20:30重磅公布，预期数据全面上扬。此前多名官员预警通胀将于今夏起回升，若 数据坐实关税传导效应，美联储九月降息恐成幻影。届时市场恐剧烈波动，敬请投资者留意相关风险。 点击查看更多前瞻... 6月CPI能否验证关税冲击？黄金多头蠢蠢欲动！ 经济学家预计6月CPI将真正显示关税影响，而此前数月的CPI读数均被高估。美联储若再度失算，特朗 普政府恐怕不会放过...... ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].

美联储内部对于何时启动降息分歧巨大。自去年十二月以来，美联储一直维持利率不变。鲍威尔称当前利率具有"适度限制性"，最新点阵图显示多数官员预 计年内降息两次。然而，七名官员认为二零二五年都不应降息，而十名官员支持降息两次或更多。更有理事公开暗示希望最早本月就采取行动。 面对复杂 的政策环境，美国债市场陷入观望，交易员对方向缺乏清晰判断，近期大幅削减了看涨头寸。两年期美债收益率自五月初以来持续在百分之三点七至百分之 四的狭窄区间内波动。衡量美债预期波动率的指标已从四月高位显著回落，跌至三年多来的最低点。 尽管市场弥漫着谨慎情绪，上周的十年期和三四年期 美债拍卖却显示出海外需求稳固，这或许能在通胀数据不如预期时，为市场提供缓冲，限制可能的剧烈抛售。 本周二，美国即将公布的六月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，已成为全球金融市场瞩目的焦点。分析人士普遍认为，这份报告或将为下半年美联储的政策路 径与市场风险情绪奠定基调。 市场对美联储九月降息的预期正在迅速降温。七月初强劲的就业数据已使本月降息希望彻底破灭，交易员们如今将目光投向九月。然而，信心已非此前般笃 定——目前市场押注九月降息的概率约为百分之七十，相比六月底时"板上 ...