期货热点追踪 尿素本周录得收跌，但盘后出口利好消息落地，周一价格是否有高开可能？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant premium of U.S. copper futures at $1,400, indicating strong demand and bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The main copper futures contract in Shanghai has surpassed the 80,000 yuan mark, reflecting a robust performance in the domestic market [1] - The article questions the underlying reasons for the bullish sentiment among investors and traders in the copper market [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on the cost support of soybean oil and provides comprehensive data on the fundamentals of edible oils, including futures, spot prices, positions, and spreads [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures on the previous trading day were 8,360 yuan/ton, 8,000 yuan/ton, and 9,482 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily price changes of 0.19%, 0.20%, and 0.06%. The night - session closing prices were 8,378 yuan/ton, 8,014 yuan/ton, and 9,463 yuan/ton, with changes of 0.22%, 0.17%, and - 0.20% [1]. - **Positions**: The positions of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 595,784 hands, 828,034 hands, and 410,903 hands respectively, with position changes of 5,856 hands, 10,946 hands, and - 20,706 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 8,490 yuan/ton, 8,190 yuan/ton, and 9,490 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong, soybean oil in Guangdong, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi were 130 yuan/ton, 190 yuan/ton, and 8 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were presented. For example, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 46 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [2]. - From June 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.83% month - on - month, compared with a 2.5% increase from June 1 - 20 [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports LLDPE and PP - PP has short - term maintenance returns and new production is progressing smoothly, with output at a year - on - year high. After the decline of the PE market, the basis strengthens, and arbitrageurs have good sales. In June, imports decreased significantly, with a slight increase expected in July. Demand is suppressed by the off - season. The strategy is that PE is expected to be range - bound, and PP is bearish on a single - side basis [36]. Methanol - The market's expectation of methanol imports has increased due to the easing of the Iranian situation, and the premium caused by geopolitical factors has been reversed. Currently, port arrivals are still low, inventory is at a low level, and the port basis is strong. Attention should be paid to the actual shipments after the restart of Iranian plants. The domestic supply is tight due to long - term maintenance at Henan Dahua and planned maintenance in Guanzhong. Demand is in the seasonal off - season. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [38]. Benzene and Styrene - The price of pure benzene continues to be weak. The overnight price of raw materials has declined, and some planned benzene - ethylene plant restarts have been suspended due to high ethylene prices. At the same time, the high - load operation of ethylene in major refineries has led to a significant increase in pure benzene supply, putting pressure on its price. In the benzene - ethylene market in East China, the market is generally stable. As the end - of - month paper - cargo delivery approaches, the basis price is relatively strong, with market transactions mainly for exchange, and overall high - price trading is limited. Downstream buyers are hesitant at high prices. In the medium term, tariffs and national subsidies may not further stimulate terminal demand. High profits in benzene - ethylene may stimulate production, and there is still pressure on the supply - demand margin, with an expected valuation repair relying on a decline in benzene - ethylene. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for benzene - ethylene resonating with raw materials [43]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices remained range - bound, as macro and fundamental factors counteracted each other. Trump reaffirmed the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including restricting its oil export revenue, but hinted that China could continue to buy Iranian oil and planned to talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices have recovered from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Fundamentally, inventories have declined for the fifth consecutive week, reaching an 11 - year seasonal low, and the inventory at the Cushing storage center has also declined for three consecutive weeks to the lowest level since February, supporting the market. The market focus is expected to shift to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Currently, Russia has stated that it will support production increases if the alliance deems it necessary. If OPEC maintains high - speed production increases, the fundamental surplus in the third quarter may continue to pressure the market, causing the center of gravity to fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support for WTI at [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent at [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC at [490, 500]. Option traders can look for opportunities as volatility narrows [47]. Urea - Short - term suggestions focus on three aspects: export - related developments, including market expectations before the Indian tender and actual port - collection volumes; the implementation of supply - side maintenance, especially whether major factories such as Shandong Mingshengda and Henan Jinkai will stop production as scheduled; and marginal changes in demand, such as weather factors and industrial procurement rhythms. The strategy is to consider going long on dips, as the rebound logic driven by news has not been fully realized, and export policy optimization and the Indian tender may continue to provide support. However, strict stop - losses should be set to prevent the risk of unmet expectations [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Near - term PX plants are under maintenance, and downstream PTA and polyester loads are high in the short term, providing support for PX at low levels. However, weak terminal demand and limited oil - price support suppress PX. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The PX09 contract is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900, and single - side trading is on hold. - PTA: Despite plant maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli, new production capacity and weak downstream demand and terminal load lead to a weakening supply - demand outlook. PTA has limited self - driving force and will follow the cost side. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900 in the short term, with single - side trading on hold and a rolling reverse - spread operation for TA9 - 1. - Ethylene Glycol: Iranian ethylene - glycol plants are restarting, and shipments are normal. The restart of domestic plants and weak demand expectations mean that supply - demand cannot drive price increases. With geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices weakening, ethylene glycol is expected to decline. The strategy is to hold short - term call - option sellers for EG2509 - C - 4450. - Short - fiber: The current supply - demand is weak. Due to planned production cuts in July and low inventory at short - fiber factories, the absolute price is slightly more supported than raw materials, and the processing margin on the futures market has recovered. The absolute price will follow raw materials. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to expand the processing margin at low levels, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts. - Bottle - grade polyester: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - grade polyester plants have cut production. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is bottoming out. The absolute price will follow the cost side. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin when it reaches the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Some plants have restarted, and current good profits may stimulate production. Downstream non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and the continuous reduction of alumina purchase prices is negative for the spot market. However, due to the recovery of alumina profits and increased production, overall demand is still supported. Weekly alkali - plant inventory has decreased, and the futures is at a discount to the spot. In the short term, there is limited downward momentum for the caustic - soda futures, but it may fluctuate. In the third quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and alumina profits may weaken, providing no positive drive for caustic soda. Considering the high - profit valuation of caustic soda, its upside is limited. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. - PVC: The short - term contradiction is not intensifying. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real - estate sector, which drags down terminal demand, and there is no obvious negative feedback or clearance in the PVC industry. Currently, PVC maintenance is decreasing, and new production is expected in June - July, increasing supply pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and exports are maintained after the extension of BIS. The social inventory has slightly increased, and further drivers need to be verified. The short - term strategy is to wait for rebounds and new drivers to look for short - selling opportunities [89]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.34% to 0.40%. L2509 - 2601 increased by 8.51%, while PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.17%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE decreased slightly, and the basis of North - China plastics and East - China PP changed significantly [36]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.86%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.42%. PE enterprise inventory decreased by 10.25%, and social inventory decreased by 16.91%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.2%, powder - material operating rate decreased by 1.3%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.2%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.72%, and trader inventory decreased by 9.21% [36]. Methanol - **Prices and Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased, with MA2509 rising 1.09%. MA91 spread increased by 38.46%, and the Taicang basis increased by 37.01%. Spot prices in different regions changed, with the port - to - inland price difference increasing [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.02%, port inventory increased by 14.34%, and social inventory increased by 6.11%. Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.85%, overseas upstream decreased by 22.67%, northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8.94%, downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 6.84%, formaldehyde decreased by 0.38%, and fatty acid increased by 4.50% [38]. Benzene and Styrene - **Raw - material Prices**: Brent crude oil was stable, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.7%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was unchanged, CFR Korea and China pure benzene decreased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread decreased slightly, and the ethylene - to - naphtha spread increased by 3.7% [40]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices**: The East - China spot price of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.2%, EB2507 and EB2508 decreased by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The basis increased by 44.2%, and the month - spread decreased by 29.6% [41]. - **Industry Chain开工率 and Profits**: Domestic and Asian pure - benzene comprehensive operating rates changed by 1.2% and - 2.3% respectively. Benzene - ethylene operating rate increased by 7.0%, PS by 0.7%, EPS decreased by 3.3%, and ABS decreased by 0.2%. Benzene - ethylene integrated profit decreased by 76.8%, non - integrated profit increased by 13.1%, PS profit decreased by 39.5%, EPS increased by 42.9%, and ABS decreased by 105.3%. Port inventories of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene changed by 2.7% and - 15.3% respectively [43]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while SC decreased by 1.46%. Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 decreased, and WTI M1 - M3 increased. Brent - WTI and SC - Brent spreads decreased, and EFS increased [47]. - **Refined - product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.46% to 1.39%. RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 increased, and Gasoil M1 - M3 was unchanged [47]. - **Refined - product Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Singapore increased to varying degrees [47]. Urea - **Prices and Changes**: Futures contract prices decreased slightly, and the basis in different regions changed significantly. Spot prices in most regions increased slightly, and the cross - regional spread changed [69][73][74]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic daily urea production decreased by 1.95%, coal - based production decreased by 2.49%, and gas - based production was unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 2.83%, and plant - maintenance losses increased by 29.60%. Factory inventory decreased by 3.53%, and port inventory increased by 29.15%. Production - enterprise order days decreased by 1.75% [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China PX prices changed, with CFR Japan naphtha decreasing by 1.7% and CFR China PX increasing by 0.4% [80]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, and other products decreased slightly, and cash flows and processing margins also changed to varying degrees [80]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased slightly, PTA operating rate decreased by 3.5%, MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 4.1%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.2%. MEG port inventory increased by 1.0%, and the expected arrival decreased by 38.0% [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Changes**: Prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda were unchanged, as were East - China PVC prices. SH2509 and SH2601 increased, while SH basis decreased by 20.2%. V2509 and V2601 changed slightly, and the V basis decreased by 0.8% [85]. - **开工率 and Profits**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. Outer - sourced calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased by 5.8%, and Northwest integrated profit increased by 6.2% [87]. - **下游开工率 and Inventory**: Alumina, viscose - staple fiber, and printing - and - dyeing industry operating rates changed slightly. PVC downstream product operating rates decreased, and caustic - soda and PVC inventories changed to varying degrees [88][89].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受美元走弱油价上涨提振，棉花有所支撑 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 16.62 | 16.38 | -1.44% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.32 | 68.76 | 0.64% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6080.0 | 0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5860.0 | 5890.0 | 0.51% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.55% | | | 棉花（新疆） | ...

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C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 研究品种：天然橡胶 成文日期：20250623 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 图片来源：文华财经 wh6 09 橡胶2601 ru2601 4.25 MA40 15131.38 MA60 15566.42 14715 步四 14710 14705 14700 费一 4 11 11 1 14695 st- 14690 14685 室二 14680 10 买四 14675 买五 14670 16270 总委 14705 d 2 14680 14690 | 涨跌 15/0.319 最新 现手 1 速涨 0.00% 11964 开盘 環 持仓 42005 最高 177 日增 214 最低 14630 402 结算价 外盘 比例 53.5% 昨收 14790 内盘 5562 昨结 14735 比例 46.5% 涨停 15910 杠杆 -- | 跌停 13555 时间 价位 现手 用率 22:59:51 14690 -1 双斗 22:59:55 14690 o 双 runni 22:59:55 14690 22:59:5 ...

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