1. Ozon在哈萨克斯坦启动FBO仓发模式 Ozon近日在哈萨克斯坦正式上线FBO（由平台仓发货）模式，并推出一系列本地化支持措施。此举意味着平台在中亚地区，已从早期的"流量入口"逐步升级 为"完整的电商基础设施服务商"。主要措施包括：在2026年7月1日前，卖家使用Ozon位于阿拉木图和阿斯塔纳的仓库，可享受全额仓储费减免；销售佣金 范围调整为5%-13%，较此前平均降低约50%；物流费用整合为透明区间价（212-3050坚戈），涵盖从商品入仓到末端配送的全流程。 平台同时加强本土运营支持，卖家现可直接与哈萨克斯坦本地法人实体签约，支持全程以坚戈定价和结算，并实行每周结算机制。结算款项可提现至哈萨克 斯坦任何银行账户，且无最低金额限制。通过这些举措，Ozon希望降低卖家运营成本、优化资金周转、简化合规流程，从而吸引更多优质供应链资源，增 强在哈萨克斯坦电商市场的竞争优势。 2. Ozon将对新设自提点收取三万卢布保证金 俄罗斯电商平台Ozon宣布，自12月15日起，对于以"品牌旗舰店"模式新开设的线下自提点（PВЗ），将收取30,000卢布（约合人民币2400元）的保证金。此 类自提点通常位于居民区底层的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的任期将于明年5月结束， 特朗普钦点的"亲信"即将上任，旨在推动大幅降息、完成鲍 威尔一直以来"抗拒"的任务。 然而，根据凯投宏观（Capital Economics）看法， 美国当前的经济状况可能会阻止央行像特朗普总统希望的那样降低利率。 在最新发布的一份报告中，凯投宏观经济学家表示，最近由人工智能（AI）引领的投资激增只是资本支出多年繁荣的开始。因此，2026年 和2027年的GDP将以2.5%的强劲速度增长，即使考虑到就业市场疲软将减缓消费的因素。 凯投宏观预测："由于核心通胀率在相当长一段时间内保持在2%的目标之上， 我们认为美联储将在2026年只会降息25个基点，这将使新任 美联储主席和特朗普总统几乎立即发生争执。 " 特朗普前不久表示已决定由谁接替鲍威尔，但公布的时间未必会在年底前，而是在"几周内"。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）与前美联储理事凯文·沃什被视为最有可能接替鲍威尔的人选。 据最新数据， 目前在美国预测市场Kalshi和Polymarket上，哈塞特被特朗普提名为美联储主席的概率仍然最高， 均在 ...

Group 1: Quantitative Private Equity Landscape - The top 100 quantitative private equity firms have a threshold of nearly 18% for entry, with 36 firms managing over 10 billion yuan, the highest among all categories [1] - Among the strategies, 76 firms focus on stock strategies, 11 on multi-asset strategies, 10 on futures and derivatives, 2 on bonds, and 1 on fund combinations [1] - The average excess return for stock quantitative long products in the market is 17.25% year-to-date as of November 2025, indicating a strong performance in the quantitative private equity sector [1] Group 2: Private Equity Market Development - The private equity market in China saw the establishment of new funds exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with the "Central Triangle" region, particularly Hunan, leading in growth [2] - Hunan has surpassed Hubei and Jiangxi with 286 companies receiving investments, and the total committed capital from institutional LPs has increased to 30.4 billion yuan, a 67% rise [2] - State-owned capital plays a significant role in Hunan's private equity market, with government guidance funds and state-owned parent funds creating a diversified support system [2] Group 3: AI in Investment Strategies - AI technology is becoming a core engine driving the evolution of the quantitative investment industry, transitioning from an optional tool to a necessity for competitive advantage [8] - The integration of AI in quantitative investment is enhancing efficiency in data cleaning, factor mining, and trade execution optimization, significantly improving strategy research [8] - The expected increase in trading volume and liquidity in the A-share market in 2025 is anticipated to provide a solid foundation for quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns [8] Group 4: New Entrants in Quantitative Investment - The establishment of Sliang Private Fund Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd. marks a new player in the quantitative investment space, led by former Citadel senior quantitative researcher Zhang Feng [9] - The company has officially registered as a private fund manager, with Zhang holding 80% of the shares, indicating a strong pedigree in quantitative research [10] - Citadel has become a talent hub in the domestic quantitative circle, with many notable figures having experience at the firm [10] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Dongfang Fortune Information Co., Ltd. has undergone a board restructuring and executive appointments, with Huang Jianhai promoted to General Manager and Vice Chairman [11] - The new board consists of six members, including three non-independent directors, one employee representative director, and two independent directors [11] - The company has also restructured its organizational framework, eliminating the supervisory board and compliance director positions, and forming a legal compliance department [11]

2. 周期顺风：美国增长或超预期 高盛对美国经济的看法比市场普遍定价更为乐观。该行预测2026年美国第四季度GDP同比增长2.5%，远高于目前市场隐含的约1.7% 的增长预期。 高盛认为，2026年的全球市场将迎来一个总体有利但更趋复杂的环境。投资者将面临稳健增长与通胀降温带来的周期性顺风，但同 时也必须驾驭人工智能（AI）主题下的高估值与高波动，并为潜在的宏观风险寻求保护。 据追风交易台，高盛Kamakshya Trivedi分析师团队在周四发布的一份题为《2026年市场展望：偏好火热》的报告中指出，全球经济 将呈现"稳健增长、就业停滞、物价稳定"的格局。该行预计，稳健的全球增长加上美联储的"非衰退式"降息，将为全球股市和新兴 市场资产提供一个友好背景。 然而，市场在许多方面已经领先于宏观经济。股票和信用市场，尤其是与AI相关的领域，呈现出"火热的估值"，这与宏观周期之间 形成了紧张关系，可能导致波动性上升和信用利差扩大。 对于投资者而言，这意味着在享受周期性利好的同时，需要为更颠簸的行情做好准备。高盛建议，投资组合应在承担风险的同时， 通过多元化和对冲策略来管理潜在的尾部风险。报告明确指出了美国劳动力市场 ...

本报讯(记者毛艺融)12月22日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表题为《把握中国机遇》的机构 观点。 瑞银财富管理认为，人工智能(AI)创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技行业2026年盈利大幅增长。而 有利的流动性和合理的估值，为中国股市进一步上行推助一臂之力。对于寻求多元化的投资者，瑞银财 富管理建议，广泛配置亚洲市场，尤其是科技投资趋势和盈利稳健，估值也具吸引力。 "我们预计2026年企业盈利强劲增长将推动中国科技股走高，这也是我们在全球股市中具有高确信度的 板块。"瑞银财富管理表示，除了科技股，中国股市整体前景也有所改善。国内流动性增强、盈利强劲 和散户资金为股市带来动力。 2025年是中国科技行业创新爆发的一年，在AI价值链各层面都取得显著进展。瑞银财富管理认为，中 国的新AI模型展现了技术领先能力，而政策支持强化生态系统的韧性。同时，在今年的强劲表现之 后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具上调潜力。 ...

（原标题：新股消息 | 滴灌通搁置港股上市计划 优先启动私募基金运作） 他又称，暂时搁置上市计划，让滴灌通得以全面启动本身推迟的3.0投资计划，将在2026年初正式启 动，同时同步开展MIFC私募基金募集工作，滴灌通集团将投入一亿美元自有资金，认购MIFC首期LP 份额。 此外，滴灌通表示，已非常接近在全系统完成人工智能(AI)重塑，将在2026年一季度开始全面部署滴灌 通投资算法引擎、数字获客引擎和新一代资金清分引擎。新推出的"滴灌导航图"正以AI为核心总调度 师，让小微资产的筛选、匹配与落地全流程更精准、更高效，料这一AI驱动的业务范式将成为3.0阶段 的核心竞争力之一。 公司官网显示，滴灌通集团是一家运用金融科技连结全球资本与小微企业的交易所集团。该交易所是全 球首家持牌的DRO(每日收入分成产品)交易所。6月18日，滴灌通安排新成立的"滴灌投资"以上市规则 21章投资公司申请香港IPO。由于期满6个月，滴灌通递交的港股招股书于12月18日失效。 李小加表示，MIFC的业务模式获得不少资金及资产方认可及响应。因此，决定优先启动私募基金程 序，把MIFC作为私募基金来运作，相关募资和投资部署上都会更灵活， ...

李小加表示，MIFC的业务模式获得不少资金及资产方认可及响应。因此，决定优先启动私募基金程 序，把MIFC作为私募基金来运作，相关募资和投资部署上都会更灵活，能更快进入市场，能更有效地 吸引全球大型投资机构参与，在时机更成熟时，再考虑更新A-1申请表，重新启动21章"公募基金"上市 程序。 他又称，暂时搁置上市计划，让滴灌通得以全面启动本身推迟的3.0投资计划，将在2026年初正式启 动，同时同步开展MIFC私募基金募集工作，滴灌通集团将投入一亿美元自有资金，认购MIFC首期LP 份额。 近日，港交所(00388)前行政总裁李小加创立的滴灌通发布股东信，宣布决定暂时搁置滴灌投资(MIFC) 的21章上市申请，因为公司难以在短时间完成所需的监管手续和程序，相关流程比预期需时大幅延长。 李小加解释，虽然通过21章"公募基金"上市的成功，对滴灌通的短期发展有诸多好处，但时间的不确定 性，已开始影响滴灌通整体的发展节奏。 公司官网显示，滴灌通集团是一家运用金融科技连结全球资本与小微企业的交易所集团。该交易所是全 球首家持牌的DRO(每日收入分成产品)交易所。6月18日，滴灌通安排新成立的"滴灌投资"以上市规则 21章 ...

Group 1 - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) forecasts that the growth of chemical production and industrial sectors in the U.S. will remain weak until 2026, with a projected increase of only 0.7% in 2025 and a further decline to 0.3% in 2026 [1] - Economic uncertainties have eased somewhat, but factors such as trade fluctuations and high interest rates continue to pose constraints. The growth momentum in the manufacturing sector is expected to wane due to changes in tariff policies and high customer inventory levels [1] - A recovery turning point is anticipated in mid-2026, with a gradual recovery process in the second half of the year supported by industrial capacity expansion plans and the lagging effects of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The performance of sub-markets is notably divergent, with specialty chemicals benefiting from an 8.4% growth in the coatings category, leading to an overall increase of 4.3% in 2025, although a decline of 0.2% is expected in 2026 [1] - Basic chemicals are projected to see a slight increase of 0.1% in 2025, while inorganic chemicals and plastic resin production declines offset some growth. A rebound to 1.2% growth is expected in 2026, despite a downturn in synthetic rubber and artificial fiber production [1] - Agricultural chemicals and consumer chemicals remain under pressure, with expected declines of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively in 2026, following a 2.7% increase in agricultural chemical production and a 2.2% decrease in consumer chemical production in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The end-use market shows mixed performance, with 11 out of 20 tracked markets experiencing a decline in consumption. The apparel sector sees a drop of 3%, while the semiconductor and electronics sectors lead with a 12% increase [2] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a core growth driver, boosting U.S. corporate investment growth to 4.1% in 2025, which directly stimulates demand for chemical-related products such as semiconductor materials and data center cooling systems [2] - However, non-AI sectors are affected by high interest rates and rising raw material prices, leading to a reduction in investment plans, with corporate investment growth expected to fall to 2.6% in 2026 [2]

今日（12月22日）早盘，截至发稿，电子板块获主力资金净流入155.77亿元，板块吸金额高居31个申万 一级行业首位！热门ETF方面，荟聚电子板块核心龙头的电子ETF（515260）场内涨幅一度上探 2.37%，现涨2.05%，盘中收复10日均线。 细分方向来看，半导体设备龙头方面，拓荆科技涨超6%，盛美上海涨逾5%；PCB（印制电路板）龙头 方面，东山精密涨超6%，深南电路涨逾5%，生益科技、鹏鼎控股、沪电股份携手涨超4%。 图：电子ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万 -- 级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 拓荆科技 | 6.20% Vann | | 电子 | 半导体 | 非导体设备 | 978亿 | 12.25亿 | | 2 | 东山精密 | 6.18% mm | | 电子 | 元件 | 印制电路板 | 14711Z | 22.14亿 | | 3 | 华工科技 | 5.44% mm | | ...