贝森特宣布美国财政部干预阿根廷外汇市场 | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46358.42 | -243.36 | -0.52% | | | 纳斯达克 | 23024.63 | -18.75 | -0.08% | | | 标普500 | 6735.11 | -18.61 | -0.28% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5625.56 | -24.17 | -0.43% | | | 英国富时100 | 9509.400 | -39.47 | -0.41% | | | 法国CAC40 | 8041,36. gogudat8.Jam | | -0.23% | | | 德国DAX | 24611.25 | 14.12 | 0.06% | | | 俄罗斯RTS 上证指数 | 1020.93 3933.97 | 31.02 61.19 | 3.13% 1.32% | | | 深证成指 创业板指 | 13725.56 3261.82 | 199.05 23.66 | 1.47% 0.73% | | | ...

以下文章来源于人神共奋 ，作者思想钢印 人神共奋 . 财经专栏作家，虎嗅&雪球2020年度十佳作者 本文来自微信公众号： 人神共奋 ，作者：思想钢印，题图来自：AI生成 一、美国的经济数据也打架了 为什么就业数据差，失业率一般，但经济增长却不错？ 研究机构对此有很多解释，比如政府查非法移民，导致就业数据差，但不在统计内的失业率不差；比 如经济数据统计人手不足导致的统计误差；比如关税冲击，让企业既不敢招聘，又不敢裁员。 这些解释都偏短期，预示着未来要么经济加速下行向就业数据靠拢，要么就业市场恢复生机向经济增 长数据靠拢。 但如果是长期的原因呢？ 有一种非传统经济学的解释越来越被更多证据认可，即， 这个矛盾现象主要是AI投资造成的，而 且，它将长期改变经济与就业结构。 去年下半年以来，美国经济出现了一个传统宏观经济无力解释的现象。 9月初，美国劳工统计局对去年3月到今年3月的非农就业数据大幅下修超过90万，为20年来这个数据 下修最多的一次，加上8月的美国非农部门新增就业仅22，000 个，远低于过去十年内正常的月度平 均水平，这种修正意味着目前已经达到了衰退的程度。 但其他经济数据并不支持"衰退"，8月，美国的 ...

一、美国的经济数据也打架了 去年下半年以来，美国经济出现了一个传统宏观经济无力解释的现象。 9月初，美国劳工统计局对去年3月到今年3月的非农就业数据大幅下修超过90万，为20年来这个数据下修最多的一次，加上8月的美 国非农部门新增就业仅22，000 个，远低于过去十年内正常的月度平均水平，这种修正意味着目前已经达到了衰退的程度。 但其他经济数据并不支持"衰退"，8月，美国的失业率为4.3%，总体仍处于历史中等偏低水平，并未达到代表衰退的6%以上的水 平。 增长数据也是如此，多个大行预测第二季度GDP年化季率终值上修至3.8%，第三季度GDP追踪预测也调升至2.6%，远远达不到衰退 的标准。 为什么就业数据差，失业率一般，但经济增长却不错？ 研究机构对此有很多解释，比如政府查非法移民，导致就业数据差，但不在统计内的失业率不差；比如经济数据统计人手不足导致 的统计误差；比如关税冲击，让企业既不敢招聘，又不敢裁员。 这些解释都偏短期，预示着未来要么经济加速下行向就业数据靠拢，要么就业市场恢复生机向经济增长数据靠拢。 但如果是长期的原因呢？ 有一种非传统经济学的解释越来越被更多证据认可，即，这个矛盾现象主要是AI投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is undergoing a self-revolution similar to historical examples like IBM and Microsoft, with a recent stock price surge reflecting market optimism about its AI strategy and cloud business performance [2] Group 1: Alibaba's Position in the AI Cloud Market - Alibaba is the only Chinese company among the world's four "super AI clouds," pursuing a full-stack self-research approach in AI chips, cloud computing, and foundational models, aligning strategically with Google [2][3] - The company has announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan (approximately 53.5 billion USD) over the next three years for cloud and AI infrastructure, surpassing its total investment over the past decade [11] Group 2: AI Competition Dynamics - The AI competition has shifted from a "model race" to a focus on building a robust AI full-stack technology system, which includes capital investment, cloud computing capacity, foundational models, and self-developed AI chips [4][7] - The success in AI is determined by two core variables: iteration speed and cost efficiency, which require a vertically integrated AI full-stack technology system [7][8] Group 3: Comparison of Strategic Paths - Two distinct strategic paths have emerged: the "cloud + ecosystem" model represented by Microsoft and Amazon, and the "full-stack self-research" model represented by Google and Alibaba [15][17] - The "full-stack self-research" model allows for faster iteration and better cost efficiency, as seen in the recent revenue growth of both Google Cloud and Alibaba Cloud [17] Group 4: Open Source and Global Impact - The open-source model has gained traction, with Chinese models like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen influencing global AI paradigms, highlighting the importance of a complete "full-stack AI capability" for long-term competitive advantage [19] - The shift towards open-source by OpenAI is seen as a response to the growing influence of Chinese open-source capabilities, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive industrial system to convert advanced designs into scalable products [19][20]

人工智能竞赛早已不再是单纯的商业合作，而是一场围绕未来十年技术制高点的权力博弈。在这场竞赛中，没有永恒的同盟，只有永恒的资本 和利益 美国的AI（人工智能）市场，正上演两大阵营的对垒。 台前，是全球最大的两家AI创业公司，OpenAI和Anthropic。幕后，则是微软、亚马逊这两家科技巨头，也是全球前两大云厂商，两家长期把持着云市场 60%以上的份额。 两大阵营对垒的格局是如何形成的？ 今天的AI竞赛，背后是算力和模型的竞赛——微软、亚马逊需要用算力和资本，换取创业公司的模型和技术，进而获得更大的市场。OpenAI、Anthropic 需要靠巨头的输血快速成长。这也是微软和OpenAI、亚马逊和Anthropic这两对盟友合作的基础。 今年8月和9月，OpenAI和Anthropic接连完成新一轮融资，它们分别成为全球第三、第四大独角兽（第一是估值4000亿美元的SpaceX，第二是估值3150亿 美元的字节跳动）。 OpenAI累计融资超过797亿美元，估值3000亿美元。微软至少为OpenAI输血130亿美元，占其公开总融资额的16%以上。Anthropic累计融资超过312亿美 元，估值1830亿美元 ...

在云服务商新增选择方面，GCP位列第二，约44%的受访者计划未来采用GCP(仅次于Azure)，38%的受 访者预计将用GCP替代现有服务商(去年为36%)。在替代现有供应商的意愿中，GCP 以 38% 排第三，低 于 Azure(72%) 和 AWS(67%) 生成式AI领域，谷歌Gemini模型成为第二大最常用的大型语言模型(LLM)提供商，54%的受访者选择其 作为GenAI工具的底层模型，较2024年调查的50%有所提升。OpenAI 占比 73%，虽仍第一，但低于去 年的 82%，反映市场正趋向多元化选择。 值得关注的是，去年未纳入调查的Anthropic此次以35%的占比位列第三，Meta Platforms(META.US)则 凭借Llama模型以24%的占比位居第四。 智通财经APP获悉，TD Cowen将谷歌(GOOGL.US)目标价由240美元上调至270美元，并维持"买入"评 级，此番调整基于其针对生成式AI(GenAI)公共云领域的年度调查结果。 以约翰·布莱克利奇为首的分析团队指出，尽管谷歌云平台(GCP)在调查中展现稳健表现，但与市场领军 者亚马逊AWS(认知度94%)及微软Azu ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI and Microsoft have reached a non-binding memorandum of understanding regarding the next phase of their collaboration, indicating ongoing negotiations on contract terms [1][3] Group 1: Revenue Sharing and Financial Implications - OpenAI has informed some shareholders that the revenue share given to Microsoft will significantly decrease in the coming years, from an initial 20% until 2030 to an expected 8% by the end of the century, potentially allowing OpenAI to retain over $50 billion in additional revenue [3] - It remains unclear whether the non-binding agreement includes modifications to the revenue-sharing plan, with some OpenAI executives seeking to exclude certain unreleased products from the revenue-sharing agreement [3] Group 2: Cloud Services and Competitive Dynamics - OpenAI is currently negotiating the scale of its spending on Microsoft cloud services, with previous estimates suggesting a spending of $135 billion by 2030, while Oracle has reportedly secured a $300 billion order from OpenAI [4] - Microsoft shareholders are questioning why OpenAI is placing larger orders with Oracle compared to Microsoft Azure, despite Microsoft being a key stakeholder in OpenAI [5] Group 3: Ownership Structure and Governance - The terms regarding equity distribution have reportedly been largely determined, with OpenAI's non-profit parent company and Microsoft each expected to hold about one-third of the new company's shares, although Microsoft will not receive a board seat [5]

Core Viewpoint - The disruption of undersea cables in the Red Sea has impacted internet services in multiple countries, including India and Pakistan, with potential service interruptions for Microsoft Azure users due to increased network latency [1] Group 1: Incident Overview - Netblocks reported that internet services in countries like India and Pakistan are affected by the disruption of undersea cables in the Red Sea [1] - The incident has also caused similar issues for UAE telecom operators Etilasat and Du [1] - Multiple undersea cable system failures were confirmed near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia [1] Group 2: Impact on Microsoft - Microsoft stated that Azure users may experience increased network latency due to the disruption of several undersea cables in the Red Sea [1] - The company indicated that business traffic passing through the Middle East region could face service interruptions [1] - Microsoft has rerouted traffic through backup network paths and reported no current network service interruptions [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft Azure services are experiencing potential network delays due to multiple submarine fiber optic cable disruptions in the Red Sea [1] - The service interruption requires rerouting through backup paths, which may lead to higher than normal levels of network latency [1] - The engineering team is actively addressing the service disruption through diversified capacity allocation and traffic rerouting [1] - Data transmission between Asia and Europe, passing through the Middle East, is likely to face increased delays [1]

9月3日消息，美国当地时间周二，OpenAI正式宣布以11亿美元收购产品分析公司Statsig，同时任命 Statsig创始人兼CEO维贾伊·拉吉（Vijaye Raji）担任应用首席技术官，直接向应用首席执行官菲吉·西莫 （Fidji Simo）汇报工作。 此次收购和高管调整，是OpenAI加速将前沿AI研究转化为成熟产品（如ChatGPT）的关键一步。通过 引入Statsig的工具与人才，OpenAI希望进一步提升其产品商业化能力，巩固在市场中的竞争地位。 收购Statsig：补全产品化拼图 Statsig是业内领先的A/B测试和功能发布平台，长期帮助企业在大规模产品中做精细化优化。OpenAI此 前就是其客户，如今的收购意味着OpenAI将把这些能力直接纳入自身研发体系，从而让产品改进更 快、更系统化。 组织大调整：新设B端高管，研发与产品更紧密 本次收购还伴随着一系列高层变动，整体指向更清晰的产品和B2B战略。 此次变动集中凸显了西莫的领导地位，她自8月18日以来刚刚开始担任应用CEO，标志着其所在部门正 快速扩展。 作为应用首席技术官，拉吉将负责ChatGPT和Codex等产品的工程方向。原Chat ...