本文来自微信公众号：APPSO （ID：appsolution），作者：发现明日产品的，原文标题：《马斯克星舰终结"四连炸"！未来有望 40 分钟内到达地球上任 何地方》，题图来自：视觉中国 蹲守星舰直播，注定心跳加速。要么见证历史。要么见证马斯克放烟花。 不过，SpaceX 星舰第十次试飞今天还是得到了命运女神的眷顾，在接连"四连炸"后终于不负众望，完成既定关键任务。质疑马斯克"画饼能力"的声音， 至少在今天得暂时安静了。 一场"故意找茬"的极限 试飞本次发射的"星舰"长约 120 米，直径约 9 米，由两部分组成，一个长约 70 米的超重型（Super Heavy）助推器，以及一个称为"星舰"的上级飞船。 两部分均由不锈钢制成，目标是实现快速、完全重复使用。 这一次，超重型助推器没有回到发射场进行"筷子夹火箭"的操作，而是前往墨西哥湾外海进行受控溅落。与此同时，星舰上级飞船则会继续飞行，最终在 印度洋受控溅落。 话不多说，让我们来详细回顾整个飞行过程。星舰顺利点火升空，搭载的 33 台猛禽发动机运行状态良好，顺利通过了最大动压阶段这一关键节点。 具体来说，当星舰（上级飞船）和助推器分离后，助推器要回到地球 ...

蹲守星舰直播，注定心跳加速。 要么见证历史。 要么见证马斯克放烟花。 不过，SpaceX 星舰第十次试飞 今天还是得到了命运女神的眷顾，在接连「四连炸」后终于不负众望，完成既定关键任务。 质疑马斯克「画饼能力」的声音，至少在今天得暂时安静了。 一场「故意找茬」的极限试飞 （APPSO 注释：最大动压阶段（Max-Q）是航天器或火箭从地面起飞穿过大气层时，因速度不断增大而空气密度逐渐降低，两者共同作用下出现的一个 「动压峰值」时刻。） 此次助推器的主要测试目标集中在着陆点火。 具体来说，当星舰（上级飞船）和助推器分离后，助推器要回到地球并尝试「着陆」。第一步，它需要把自己翻转过来（控制翻转），让发动机面向正确 方向，才能点火减速。 热分离 翻转后，助推器会点燃发动机，进行一次反向推力（点火回推）。这相当于踩刹车，让助推器逐渐脱离原本的上升轨迹，转而走向预定的下降轨迹。 本次发射的「星舰」长约 120 米，直径约 9 米，由两部分组成，一个长约 70 米的超重型（Super Heavy）助推器，以及一个称为「星舰」的上级飞船。 两部分均由不锈钢制成，目标是实现快速、完全重复使用。 这一次，超重型助推器没有回到发射 ...

Core Viewpoint - Starlink has received approval from India's space regulatory authority to provide services, but it still requires spectrum and other licenses to operate in the country, which has the largest population globally [3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Approval - The Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Center (IN-SPACe) approved Starlink's plan on July 8, marking a significant regulatory step before the company's operations can commence [3]. - IN-SPACe's authorization covers the operation of 4,408 first-generation Starlink satellites, valid for five years or until the end of the Gen1 constellation's operational life [7]. Group 2: Challenges and Considerations - Starlink and other LEO broadband providers face significant regulatory hurdles, including compliance with new satellite connectivity rules introduced in May, which emphasize national security and local industry participation [4][5]. - The requirement for satellite communications to route through Indian data centers increases operational costs for foreign providers, adding complexity to the technology [5]. - Starlink's pricing strategy is crucial, especially given its aim to connect rural, unconnected users in India, where there is a general willingness to pay for services [5]. Group 3: Market Potential - If successful, India could provide Starlink with a vast user base and a strategic foothold in Asia, as the company currently serves over 6 million users across 140 countries and regions [5]. - Starlink has announced service launches in 35 new markets this year, with the latest being in Qatar, indicating its ongoing expansion efforts [5].

Core Insights - The "Starlink" satellite network operated by SpaceX is experiencing a significant increase in satellite re-entries due to heightened solar activity, with over 120 satellites falling back to Earth in January 2025 alone [1][5][18] Group 1: Satellite Operations and Performance - As of June 2025, Starlink has launched over 8,800 satellites, with approximately 7,600 currently operational, accounting for two-thirds of active satellites in Earth's orbit [3] - Between 2020 and 2024, 523 Starlink satellites prematurely re-entered the atmosphere, with an average of 3 satellites re-entering daily in 2024 [7][18] - The design and operational strategy of Starlink, including the planned retirement of Gen1 satellites to make way for the more advanced V2 models, has contributed to the increased rate of satellite re-entries [14][18] Group 2: Environmental and Safety Concerns - The re-entry of Starlink satellites poses environmental risks, as each Gen1 satellite generates approximately 30 kilograms of aluminum oxide nanoparticles upon re-entry, which may harm the stratospheric ozone layer [13][16] - A 2.5-kilogram piece of Starlink debris was discovered on a Canadian farm, highlighting the potential for incomplete incineration during re-entry [5][14] - NASA has indicated that the risk of debris falling to Earth increases with the frequency of satellite re-entries, although the overall probability remains low [14] Group 3: Solar Activity Impact - The primary cause of the increased satellite re-entries is attributed to the strong solar activity during Solar Cycle 25, which peaked in 2024-2025, leading to frequent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [9][18] - The CMEs have caused geomagnetic storms that heat and expand the upper atmosphere, increasing drag on low Earth orbit satellites, particularly those below 300 kilometers [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issue of SpaceX's Starlink satellites experiencing significant falls has raised concerns about operational reliability and financial implications for the company [1][3]. Group 1: Satellite Failures - Since January, over 120 Starlink satellites have reportedly fallen, averaging about four per day, creating visible fireballs in the sky [1]. - The cost of manufacturing these satellites ranges from $300,000 to $500,000 each, leading to substantial financial losses for SpaceX given the number of satellites involved [3]. - The reasons for the satellite failures include both intentional deorbiting after mission completion and potential loss of control due to external factors [3][5]. Group 2: External Influences - The current peak of the 25th solar activity cycle is affecting satellite operations, with solar storms causing rapid deceleration and orbital deviations, leading to uncontrolled falls [5]. - Similar incidents occurred in 2022, where 40 Starlink satellites fell due to solar storm impacts, indicating a recurring issue [6]. Group 3: Mitigation Strategies - SpaceX's proactive approach to deorbiting aging satellites is commendable as it helps reduce space debris, which has been increasing in recent years [8]. - The company must ensure that deorbiting occurs in safe locations to prevent potential hazards from falling debris, especially in populated or sensitive areas [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - SpaceX needs to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and improvement of the Starlink program, focusing on enhancing satellite resilience against natural disturbances [10]. - There is a broader need for all countries involved in satellite operations to address interference and collision risks to ensure the sustainable development of space as a shared domain [10].

Investment Strategy - The satellite sector is showing a trend of "East rising, West falling," indicating that China may achieve a latecomer advantage in low Earth orbit satellites. The number of Starlink satellites falling has increased significantly, with 316 expected to fall in 2024, compared to only 2 in 2020. This trend correlates with heightened solar activity [12][16] - The "computing satellite" sector is emerging as a new avenue, with China potentially holding a first-mover advantage. The "Star Computing" plan aims to establish a space-based computing network with 2,800 satellites, while the "Three-body Computing Constellation" will achieve a total computing power of 1,000 POPS [13][14] - Four key advantages are expected to establish satellites as a new type of infrastructure: universal connectivity, high-speed communication, large-scale user access, and safety and reliability. Satellite internet can provide access in remote areas, with latency as low as 20-50 milliseconds and peak speeds reaching 500 Mbps [14][15] Industry News - Starlink satellites have been falling at an increasing rate, with over 500 reported to have fallen between 2020 and 2024. This trend provides valuable insights for China's satellite development, helping to avoid similar risks in the future [16][17] - China Mobile has initiated a procurement project for 170,000 data center switches, with Huawei and ZTE among the winning bidders. This reflects ongoing investments in infrastructure to support AI demand [17][18] - China Mobile has successfully launched a trusted data space project for data annotation, which aims to support various sectors including smart vehicles and healthcare, marking a shift towards a more skill-intensive data industry [18][19] - China Post has successfully conducted long-distance cargo transport using fixed-wing drones, marking a significant breakthrough in low-altitude logistics [19] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a slight decline of 0.5% this week, with notable performances in optical modules and low-altitude economy sectors. The satellite internet sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [20][21] - Recommended stocks for next week include companies involved in satellite internet, such as Aerospace Universe and Tianyin Machinery, as well as long-term focus on major telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom [24]

Core Insights - ARK Invest predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, representing a more than 7-fold increase from its estimated $350 billion valuation at the end of 2024 [1] - The valuation model incorporates "interstellar variables" such as Mars colonization and orbital resources, reflecting a shift in how the space economy is perceived [1] Group 1: Business Model and Cash Flow - The core of ARK's valuation model is based on SpaceX's unique "business flywheel," which starts with cash flow generated from reusable Falcon rockets, leading to a self-reinforcing growth cycle [2] - As Falcon 9's reuse increases from 15 to 50 times, the cost per launch could drop from $62 million to below $20 million, enhancing market competitiveness [2] - SpaceX is projected to capture 52% of global commercial launch orders in 2024, generating $12 billion in revenue, which supports the expansion of Starlink [2] Group 2: Starlink Revenue Potential - By 2035, ARK forecasts that Starlink could generate $300 billion in annual revenue, capturing 15% of global communication spending [3] - The revenue model is based on penetration into consumer, enterprise, and government markets, with significant contributions expected from remote areas and industrial applications [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense has already signed a $15 billion long-term contract, indicating the potential for government market revenue [3] Group 3: Mars Development and Technological Advancements - Mars development is integrated into the valuation model, with a key turning point set for 2028 when 30% of Starlink's revenue will be allocated to Mars initiatives [4] - SpaceX aims to produce 100 Starships annually, reducing the cost per launch to $50 million, enabling 100 Mars missions by 2030 [4] - The introduction of Optimus robots is expected to automate construction on Mars, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs [5] Group 4: Orbital Resources and Future Valuation - ARK's model includes "orbital assets" as a core valuation component, viewing the Starlink satellite network as valuable "digital real estate" [7] - The deployment of 42,000 Starlink satellites will support various applications, including autonomous vehicles and IoT connectivity, expanding SpaceX's future value chain [7] - The valuation of SpaceX is projected to extend beyond current revenue, indicating a new growth cycle in the space economy, with a potential valuation of $2.5 trillion by 2030 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques SpaceX's Starlink satellite program, highlighting its high failure rate and design flaws compared to more robust alternatives like those from East University [1][19]. Group 1: Starlink Satellite Failures - In 2024 alone, 316 Starlink satellites fell to Earth, marking a staggering 259% increase from previous years [5]. - Since the launch of Starlink in 2019, a total of 583 satellites have been lost, averaging one out of every 15 satellites [7]. - The number of fallen satellites increased significantly from 78 in 2021 to 99 in 2022, and 88 in 2023, indicating a troubling trend [7]. Group 2: Design and Quality Issues - Critics argue that the design of Starlink satellites is fundamentally flawed, with inadequate fuel capacity and structural integrity, leading to their high failure rate [11][15]. - NASA data indicates that 70% of Starlink satellite failures occur during minor geomagnetic storms, suggesting that the satellites are not resilient enough for space conditions [11]. - The aggressive deployment strategy, with 42,000 satellites launched, has compromised quality for quantity, resulting in what is described as "space junk" [11][15]. Group 3: Comparison with Competitors - East University's satellites operate at safer altitudes (above 400 km) and are designed for longevity, averaging 2-3 years longer lifespan than Starlink satellites [18]. - The article emphasizes that East University's approach is more sustainable and cost-effective, as their satellites are built with redundancy and reliability in mind [18]. - The competition for orbital space is intensifying, with over 70,000 satellites proposed globally, while East University plans for only 25,000, contrasting with Starlink's aggressive 42,000 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing frequency of Starlink satellite re-entries raises concerns about space environment safety and satellite operational stability, with a significant number of satellites falling from orbit in recent years [3][5][11]. Group 1: Starlink Satellite Re-Entry Data - From 2020 to 2024, a total of 583 Starlink satellites have fallen from orbit, with 316 of these occurring in 2024 alone [3][5]. - The number of Starlink satellites re-entering the atmosphere has escalated dramatically, with over 120 satellites falling in January 2024, averaging more than 4 per day [3][5]. - The design lifespan of Starlink satellites is approximately 5 years, and increased geomagnetic activity has been shown to significantly reduce their operational lifespan by about 20% [11][12]. Group 2: Solar Activity Impact - The current solar cycle (Cycle 25) is characterized by heightened solar activity, which is expected to peak around 2025, posing unprecedented challenges for low Earth orbit satellites [6][7]. - Increased solar activity leads to the expansion of the Earth's upper atmosphere, resulting in greater atmospheric density and resistance, which affects satellite trajectories [9][10]. - During periods of intense geomagnetic storms, satellites can re-enter the atmosphere 10 to 12 days earlier than during quiet geomagnetic periods [11]. Group 3: Environmental and Safety Concerns - The rapid re-entry of Starlink satellites raises environmental concerns, including the potential release of metals like aluminum, which can contribute to ozone depletion [15]. - There is a risk that some satellite debris may not completely burn up during re-entry, posing a danger to people and property on the ground [15]. - Monitoring and predictive measures are recommended to mitigate the risks associated with increased satellite numbers and their potential impacts during periods of high solar and geomagnetic activity [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's commercial aerospace industry is potentially at a turning point due to advancements in material lightweighting, accelerated R&D iterations, and decreasing satellite costs, with SpaceX frequently mentioned as a reference point for industry practitioners [1][6][8] - The use of aluminum alloy for rocket fuel tank components, which is lighter and cheaper than stainless steel, is emphasized as a significant development that can reduce overall rocket weight and fuel costs, showcasing a shift in material selection influenced by SpaceX's practices [6][7] - The application of 3D printing technology in the commercial aerospace sector has drastically reduced manufacturing lead times from 2-3 months to about one week, allowing for rapid iteration and customization, which is now being adopted by Chinese companies [7][8] Group 2 - The Chinese commercial satellite manufacturing sector is expected to experience a growth phase in 2024, with a projected revenue increase from 13.2 billion yuan in 2023 to over 16.6 billion yuan in 2025, and a 60% reduction in manufacturing costs for leading companies compared to 2020 [8][9] - Despite improvements, there remains a gap in capabilities between Chinese and American aerospace industries, particularly in rocket recovery technology and payload capacity, with Chinese companies still in the experimental phase [8][9] - The trend towards customized production in aerospace components is noted, with companies adapting to specific order requirements, indicating a shift towards a more responsive and integrated supply chain in the commercial aerospace sector [9]