国家发改委：破除"内卷式"竞争，规范地方招商引资行为 金十数据7月31日讯，7月31日，国家发展改革委召开2025年上半年发展改革形势通报会。会议强调，纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，破除"内卷式"竞争，深入推进招标投标制度改革，规范地方招商引资行 为，推动要素顺畅流通，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 ...

7月31日，省委、省政府与国家市场监管总局在北京举行工作会谈。市场监管总局党组书记、局长罗文，省委书记刘宁、省长王凯出席并讲话。 罗文对河南经济社会发展取得的成绩表示祝贺，对恳请支持事项作出积极回应。他说，河南省委、省政府高度重视市场监管工作，在质量和标准化建设、优 化市场环境等方面形成了一些好经验好做法。总局将深入贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，结合河南改革发展实际，进一步深化对接合作、加大政策支持力 度，推动河南融入服务全国统一大市场建设不断取得新成效，促进部省合作取得更多务实成果，为更好推进市场监管现代化、服务高质量发展提供有益借 鉴。 市场监管总局副局长、国家认监委主任束为，副省长吕国范参加。（记者 刘婵 归欣 张笑闻） 责任编辑： 杨露露 刘宁代表省委和省政府感谢总局在质量强企强链强县建设、产业检验检测技术研发、中小企业认证提升等方面给予河南的大力支持。他说，当前，全省上下 深入学习贯彻习近平总书记在河南考察时重要讲话精神，聚焦"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，经济社会保持平稳健康发 展。特别是我们立足中部地区"三基地一枢纽"战略定位，把融入服务全国统一大市场建设作为 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].

今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...

Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was recorded at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[8] - Achieving the annual target growth rate of 5% is deemed feasible, with a projected 4.7% growth rate needed in the second half[8] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized "enhancing flexibility and foresight" in policy implementation, indicating a proactive approach to potential external shocks[3] - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to maintain ample liquidity and reduce overall financing costs[10] Market Stability - The government aims to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, with expectations for the price level to remain moderate and controllable throughout the year[4] - The focus on high-quality investment and structural tools in monetary policy suggests a cautious approach to broad interest rate cuts[12] Risk Management - Key risks include uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and the potential for slower export growth in Q3[6] - The meeting highlighted the need for systematic debt risk management, particularly regarding local government debt[15] Consumer and Investment Focus - Policies will prioritize stimulating domestic demand, with an emphasis on service consumption and improving living standards to support sustained consumption[13] - The government aims to invigorate private investment and ensure effective investment in key projects to support economic growth[14]

Group 1 - The meeting on July 30, 2025, decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October 2025, focusing on the formulation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a foundational stage for building a modern socialist country, emphasizing the need to adapt to challenges and opportunities [1][2] - The meeting reiterated the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," aiming for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to avoid disjointed efforts [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of unleashing domestic demand potential, particularly in the context of weak external demand [2] - It emphasized the need for continuous reform and opening up to enhance high-quality development and structural dynamics [2][3] - The meeting underscored a "zero tolerance" approach to risks in key areas, ensuring social stability through comprehensive planning for livelihood security [2][3] Group 3 - The meeting acknowledged the profound changes in the global landscape, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring, alongside internal structural issues like local government debt and youth employment pressure [3] - It called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency while maintaining a focus on key areas such as infrastructure and technology innovation [3] - The meeting stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, ensuring food security, and enhancing social assistance systems to improve overall resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十四五"圆 满收官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：上半年我们的经济增长实现了良好的开局，平稳的增长，这都得益于我们实施了更加积极有为的宏观 政策。所以为了下半年要保持经济持续稳定增长，需要我们在政策方面要保持它的持续性和稳定性。下半年会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一 样的地方，这种情况下就必须要增加政策的灵活性，要使得我们的政策更加精准发力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：我们的服务消费的占比越来越高，而且随着我们的生活水平的提高，服务消费是消费升级的主要的方 向，这种情况下，中央政治局的会议也提出，下半年我们在继续扩大商品消费的同时，要注重培育服务消费新的增长点。 专家表示，培育服务消费新增长点既能够改善民生，符合老百姓对美好生活的向往，同时又能够扩 ...

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 30 日，万得全 A 开盘小幅上涨，午后跳水后有所回升，收跌 0.40%，超 3500 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.02%、0.65%、0.82%，上证 50 收盘上涨 0.38%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期 货表现弱于现货，IF、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.12%、0.76%、0.87%，IH 主力 合约收涨 0.21%（按前一交易日收 ...