新华社布鲁塞尔8月18日电（记者康逸）荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基18日说，最新 贸易数据表明，美国高关税政策已冲击欧洲出口。 欧盟统计局当天公布的数据显示，6月欧元区出口环比下降2.4%，进口环比增长超过3%，经季节性 调整后的贸易顺差从5月的156亿欧元收窄至28亿欧元。6月欧盟对美国出口同比下降超10%。 今年以来，美国对欧盟加征关税节节攀升。6月许多欧洲出口商面临美国10%的"对等关税"，汽车 生产商面临25%的关税，钢铁和铝生产商则面临高达50%的关税。8月美方对大多数欧盟输美商品征收 15%的"对等关税"生效。这些税率都远高于此前美欧间平均不足5%的关税水平。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 布热斯基说，欧盟统计局当天公布的数据展现了首轮美国关税冲击后欧洲的出口状况。总体而言， 今年前几个月欧洲工业数据高度波动。这主要缘于在关税生效前企业抢先向美国出口，随后又因高关税 减少出口。 布热斯基认为，自年初以来，欧元走强、美国关税措施以及全球贸易前景的不确定性，叠加欧洲出 口商面临的激烈竞争等因素，都可能在未来持续拖累欧洲出口。 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC suspension resin from China, the US, Japan, South Korea, and other regions, with a maximum tax of $284 per ton [1] - The tax rates for Chinese PVC are set between $122 and $232 per ton, which is an increase of $40 from the preliminary ruling, while the US rate has decreased by $32, indicating a double standard in the application of tariffs [3] - India relies on China for 42% of its PVC imports, and the new tariffs will force local companies to either pay higher prices or face production shortages, which could harm the domestic industry [3] Group 2 - The tax rates for South Korea range from $0 to $169 per ton, while Japan's rates are between $49 and $148 per ton, suggesting a targeted approach against Chinese companies [3] - The Indian construction and agriculture sectors are heavily dependent on PVC, and the imposition of tariffs will lead to increased costs for downstream industries, ultimately affecting Indian consumers [3] - The situation illustrates that trade wars do not yield winners, and aggressive tariff measures may backfire, jeopardizing local industries and employment [3]

Economic Overview - Germany's GDP decreased by 0.1% in Q2, reversing earlier growth and falling short of market expectations, indicating ongoing economic decline after two years of contraction [1] - The unemployment rate is approaching 3 million, with significant layoffs announced by major companies such as Audi, Deutsche Bank, and Siemens, reflecting the impact of the economic downturn [2] Industry Impact - The number of bankruptcies reached a record high of 4,524 in Q2, the highest since Q3 2005, with manufacturing, trade, and hospitality sectors being particularly affected [2] - The automotive industry, a key sector for Germany, is experiencing significant profit declines among major players like BMW and Volkswagen, with industrial output hitting its lowest level since May 2020 [2][4] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence index fell by 1.2 points to -21.5, indicating a decline in purchasing willingness and an increase in saving intentions due to high prices and economic uncertainty [3] External Pressures - U.S. tariffs and trade policies are exerting severe pressure on Germany's export-driven economy, with predictions that these policies could lead to a 0.2% decline in GDP [4] - The automotive sector faces additional burdens from tariffs, with companies incurring billions in extra costs despite recent tariff reductions [4] Structural Challenges - Germany's economic recovery is hindered by structural issues such as lengthy project approval processes and high energy costs, which have led to a nearly 20% production drop in energy-intensive industries [5] - Digitalization lag and an aging population further complicate recovery efforts [5] Government Response - The German government is implementing a comprehensive economic plan focusing on military industry investments to stimulate growth, alongside a significant public investment initiative aimed at infrastructure and research [7][8] - Despite these efforts, experts express skepticism about the sustainability of growth without structural reforms, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that includes fiscal policy and systemic reforms [8]

Economic Overview - Germany's GDP decreased by 0.1% in Q2 2023, reversing earlier growth and falling short of market expectations, indicating ongoing economic decline after two years of contraction [1] - The unemployment rate is approaching 3 million, with significant layoffs announced by major companies such as Audi, Deutsche Bank, and Siemens, reflecting the impact of the economic downturn on the labor market [2] Industry Impact - The automotive industry, a key sector in Germany, is facing substantial profit declines among major manufacturers like BMW and Volkswagen, with industrial output hitting its lowest level since May 2020 [2] - Over one-third of companies report insufficient orders, particularly in the automotive, machinery, and electrical equipment sectors, highlighting a critical lack of demand [2] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the leading index falling to -21.5 points, indicating a shift towards saving rather than spending due to high prices and economic uncertainty [3] External Pressures - U.S. trade policies and tariffs are significantly impacting Germany's export-driven economy, with predictions that these could reduce Germany's GDP by 0.2% in the medium term [4] - The automotive sector is particularly affected by U.S. tariffs, which impose additional costs on German car manufacturers despite recent reductions in tariffs on EU imports [4] Structural Challenges - Germany faces long-standing structural issues, including slow infrastructure investment and lengthy project approval processes, which hinder economic competitiveness [4] - Rising energy costs have also severely impacted manufacturing profits, with energy-intensive industries experiencing production declines of nearly 20% [5][6] Government Response - The German government is implementing a comprehensive economic plan, focusing on boosting the defense industry to stimulate growth, alongside a significant public investment initiative aimed at infrastructure and research [7] - Despite these efforts, experts express skepticism about the sustainability of growth without structural reforms, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that includes fiscal policy and systemic reforms [8]

Group 1 - Trump's executive order on August 6, 2025, imposed a 25% tariff on Indian oil imports from Russia, raising the total tariff to 50%, which is expected to reduce India's exports to the US by 80% [1][4][8] - India's exports to the US account for approximately 17% of its total exports, leading to significant economic pressure on Indian businesses and employment [1][4] - The Indian government is facing challenges as it attempts to balance its energy security needs with the economic impact of the tariffs, emphasizing the importance of continuing to purchase Russian oil [3][8] Group 2 - Modi's government is implementing tax reforms to stimulate the economy in response to the tariffs, but these measures are seen as temporary solutions [3][4] - The geopolitical dynamics are shifting, with China continuing to import Russian oil significantly, while India feels isolated due to the US's selective enforcement of tariffs [4][8] - The Indian economy is projected to suffer a loss of over a hundred billion dollars in exports due to the tariffs, exacerbating the trade deficit [4][8] Group 3 - The response from China and Russia indicates a strengthening of their energy alliance, with Russia prioritizing oil exports to China, further sidelining India [3][6] - India's attempts to collaborate with South Korea on steel production are limited in scale compared to its needs, highlighting the challenges it faces in diversifying its trade partnerships [6][8] - The overall sentiment is that India's position in the global trade landscape is becoming increasingly precarious, necessitating a reevaluation of its foreign relations strategy [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the global tariff policy by the Trump administration marks a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, leading to widespread implications for global trade dynamics and economic conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Impact on Specific Countries - Brazil faces severe consequences with tariffs as high as 50%, leading to a drastic reduction in orders for export-oriented factories [3][5]. - India's traditional export sectors, such as textiles and jewelry, are also under pressure as tariffs approach 50%, prompting companies to reassess their global market strategies [3][11]. - Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Indonesia are subjected to a 19% tariff, negatively impacting their agricultural and manufacturing sectors, particularly affecting Thailand's fruit exports [3][5]. Group 2: Reactions from Affected Countries - Many countries are sending delegations to negotiate tariff exemptions, with Brazil's orange juice industry successfully obtaining a waiver, allowing continued access to the U.S. market [7][10]. - Chile's copper industry has also secured special exemptions, leading to a rise in market confidence and stock prices for copper companies [7]. - Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating to protect their automotive and electronic sectors, with Japan particularly focused on the timing of reduced tariffs on cars [9][11]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has surged to its highest level in nearly a century, indicating a major shift in trade policy that could lead to increased consumer prices and a rise in protectionism globally [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is prompting multinational companies to reevaluate their global supply chains, with some considering relocating production to other regions [12][14]. - The potential for a restructuring of global supply chains may lead to market volatility and economic disruptions in the short term, particularly affecting Southeast Asian economies that are integral to the electronics supply chain [14].

求助于中国也于事无补，特朗普只能无奈地目睹，数十亿美元的巨额大单"飞走"，此刻的他怕是懊悔不 已。 特朗普政府这波操作真是搬起石头砸了自己的脚！当初不顾各方反对执意对中国挥舞关税大棒，如今美 国农民望着满仓的大豆欲哭无泪。 【美国大豆错失中国市场】 路透社从三名贸易商那里得知，在全球最大大豆买家中国转向巴西采购后，美国今年可能要眼睁睁看着 价值数十亿美元的中国大豆订单打水漂。这可不是小数目，足够让整个中西部农业州的经济抖三抖。 往年这个时候，美国中西部农场主们早就忙着接中国订单了。知情贸易商向路透社透露，今年中国买家 根本不按常理出牌：9月份800万吨、10月份400万吨的大豆采购清一色都给了南美，而去年同期中国从 美国进口了足足700万吨。 芝加哥期货交易所的大豆价格应声跌到五年最低点，交易大厅里操盘手们的脸色比生锈的收割机还难 看。 但金融分析师们听完直摇头，现在美国大豆运到中国要交23%的关税，比巴西贵出一大截，除非白宫自 己先撤销对华关税，否则中国商人又不傻。 外交部发言人被问及此事时淡定回应：具体问题得问主管部门，但强调中国在贸易问题上的立场从来都 是明确且连贯的。 巧的是当天商务部刚宣布，中美同意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of proposed extreme trade measures by the U.S. against China, including a 600% tariff and the potential prohibition of dollar settlements, highlighting the risks to both economies and the global trade system [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Measures - The suggestion of a 600% tariff on Chinese goods reflects extreme protectionist sentiments, aiming to eliminate Chinese products from the U.S. market and encourage domestic manufacturing [1][3]. - Historical context shows that previous high tariffs have led to increased inflation in the U.S., higher consumer prices, and significant operational challenges for American businesses [3][9]. - The potential prohibition of dollar settlements could disrupt the established trade framework between the U.S. and China, leading to chaos in trade contracts and financial transactions [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Global Trade - A ban on dollar settlements would accelerate the transformation of the global trade settlement system, prompting countries to seek alternatives to the dollar, thereby undermining U.S. dollar hegemony [4][5]. - The article suggests that such measures could lead to a shift towards a more diversified global trade system, as countries recognize the vulnerabilities of relying on the dollar [4][5]. Group 3: China's Response and Opportunities - China is reportedly prepared for potential financial and trade restrictions, having made significant strides in the internationalization of the yuan, which is now the fifth-largest payment currency globally [7]. - The establishment of trade agreements like RCEP is seen as a strategic move to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and enhance trade with neighboring countries [7][8]. - There is a growing sentiment among Chinese netizens that the U.S. measures could ultimately benefit China by accelerating the yuan's internationalization and fostering domestic innovation [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical precedents indicate that U.S. sanctions and high tariffs have often failed to achieve their intended economic collapse of targeted nations, as seen with Iran and Russia [9]. - The article posits that the ongoing trade tensions will likely continue to shape the economic landscape, with a potential shift towards a more multipolar global economy as emerging markets gain prominence [11].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration against China has been characterized as a "self-indulgent farce," ultimately failing to achieve its intended goals and revealing the resilience of China in the face of pressure [1][10]. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - Trump's initial threats included imposing tariffs as high as 200% on Chinese goods, aiming to force China to comply with U.S. trade rules [1]. - The negotiations between the U.S. and China resulted in a 90-day "truce," which did not meet Trump's expectations and dampened his ambitions [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's plans to implement high tariffs on China were met with silence from G7 and EU nations, highlighting their reluctance to align with U.S. actions against China due to significant economic ties [5]. Group 2: Impact on India - Following setbacks with China, Trump shifted focus to India, increasing tariffs from an initial 25% to potentially 250%, targeting India's pharmaceutical exports [7]. - The trade protectionist measures taken by the Trump administration have not only failed to enhance its reputation but have also caused significant harm to the U.S. economy, leading to rising prices and declining purchasing power [7]. Group 3: China's Response and Global Implications - China maintained a principled stance, demonstrating its importance in the global supply chain by tightening rare earth exports, which affected U.S. industries [8]. - The trade war has resulted in the U.S. losing not only economic benefits but also moral standing and global support, as countries recognize the futility of following U.S. unilateral actions [8][10]. - The conclusion of the trade war suggests a shift towards a more multipolar and rule-based global trade system, with China positioned as a key player in promoting fairness and justice in international trade [10].

Group 1: Trade Disputes and Economic Impact - The trade dispute between China and Canada has escalated, with China filing a complaint to the WTO against Canada's steel import restrictions, highlighting increasing friction in the steel sector and broader trade barriers [1][3] - Canada announced an expansion of steel import tariffs, imposing a 25% additional tax on products containing Chinese steel components, which is seen as a protectionist measure [3] - The Canadian steel import value is projected to exceed $16 billion in 2024, with approximately 10% sourced from China, indicating potential disruption to the bilateral trade valued at CAD 120 billion [3] Group 2: Agricultural Sector and Response Measures - China's imposition of a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola oil and meal is expected to significantly impact Canadian farmers, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as China is the largest importer of Canadian canola [3][5] - The Canadian government acknowledges the significant impact of the canola tariffs on farmers and is seeking to diversify export markets to mitigate negative effects [5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The instability in China-Canada relations has historical roots, with previous tensions arising from the Meng Wanzhou incident and U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum affecting Canada [7] - The ongoing disputes could lead to a GDP contraction of approximately 0.5% for Canada if they persist, while China may seek alternative suppliers for canola [7] - The WTO's role in resolving these disputes remains uncertain, but it could provide a platform for constructive dialogue and potential resolution [9][10] Group 4: Opportunities for Cooperation - Despite the escalating trade disputes, there is potential for renewed constructive cooperation between China and Canada, which could stabilize their economies and contribute to global trade recovery [12]