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刚刚宣布,不降息
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-19 13:37
6月19日,英国央行召开货币政策会议,宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行如期维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定,与周三美联储的行动一致。受此决策影响,英国国债和英镑汇率双 双下挫。 英国央行表示,英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软,劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明,随着时间的推移,疲软 的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓,同5月份一样,委员会预计今年剩余时间将显著放缓。 【导读】紧跟美联储,英国央行宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变 交易员还预计,到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息,届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 中信证券分析师指出,英国央行将锚定美联储政策路径,年内或仅降息两次。若全球经济因关税冲突再 度承压,政策宽松空间或被迫扩大。 英国央行正面临"通胀未达标"与"经济动能减弱"的双重挑战。当前政策利率4.25%仍处于紧缩区间,为 调整留足空间。短期来看,季度性降息将成为平衡通胀与增长的首选工具;中长期而言,全球贸易摩擦 与结构性失业问题或迫使央行采取更激进宽松措施。 挪威、瑞士央行宣布降息 在英国央行决议公布之前,欧洲地区部分其他国家的央行采取了降息行动。 日前,英国国家统计局公布的数据显示,英国 ...
Shell Commits to Invest in Malaysia Over the Next Three Years
ZACKS· 2025-06-19 13:06
Investment Commitment - Shell plc has pledged an investment of RM9 billion ($2.12 billion) in Malaysia over the next two to three years, enhancing its operations and creating high-skilled employment opportunities [1][7] - This investment is one of the most substantial foreign investment commitments in recent times, reflecting Malaysia's ability to attract multinational corporations in the Oils-Energy sector [2][8] Strategic Importance - The funding commitment reinforces Shell's long-standing relationship with Malaysia and indicates a deeper strategic alignment in its regional growth plans [3] - The investment is seen as an endorsement of Malaysia's macroeconomic stability and governance structure, boosting the country's appeal to other foreign investors [7][8] Economic and Employment Impact - The investment is expected to create high-skilled job opportunities, aligning with Malaysia's objectives to transition towards a more technologically advanced, skills-based economy [4] - Although specific project details are not disclosed, the initiative is positioned as a long-term driver of workforce development [4][9] Global Context and Risks - Shell is managing broader geopolitical risks that could impact global energy markets, particularly in light of tensions in the Middle East affecting shipping operations [5][6] - The company is closely monitoring developments and has contingency plans in place, highlighting the potential impact on global trade if critical shipping lanes are disrupted [6] Conclusion on Investment Landscape - Shell's RM9 billion investment marks a significant development in Malaysia's economic growth story and serves as a powerful indicator of international confidence in the country's leadership and economic policy [9]
英国央行利率决议陷6:3分裂!维持基准利率4.25%后,政策天平向鸽派倾斜
智通财经网· 2025-06-19 12:30
智通财经APP获悉,英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变。政策制定者在日益 紧张的地缘政治背景下,权衡了英国疲软的就业市场和低迷的经济增长。这一决定使得8月可能降息25 个基点的预期升温。 自预算案发布以来,英国就业人数已减少逾25万 交易员加大了对进一步降息的押注,完全消化了2025年再降息两次、每次25个基点的预期。这一重新定 价导致英镑和英国国债收益率下滑,10年期国债收益率从之前的4.53%降至约4.52%。周四英镑兑美元 下跌0.1%,至1.341美元。 道明证券高级欧洲和英国利率策略师普贾·库姆拉在彭博电视上表示:"8月降息似乎已成定局。"她预计 在下次会议前将看到薪资和通胀数据逐步下降,但鉴于英国央行坚持"渐进且谨慎"的做法,她警告称不 太可能像欧洲央行那样连续降息。 英国央行九人货币政策委员会中,六名成员投票支持维持利率不变,而外部委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉、艾伦· 泰勒以及副行长戴夫·拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。 会议纪要显示,随着就业市场持续疲软,委员会"预计今年剩余时间薪资增长将显著放缓"。纪要释放鸽 派信号称,"劳动力市场出现了一些更明显的反通胀压力迹象"。委员会 ...
这国央行重回零利率
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-06-19 11:02
瑞士央行在6月货币政策声明中指出,自上次货币政策评估以来,通胀水平进一步下降。瑞士央行将继续密切关注形势,并在必要时调整货币政策,以确 保通胀保持在中期价格稳定的范围内。 如今,瑞士央行距离回到此前的负利率状态,仅一步之遥。 事实上,在6月货币政策会议召开前,市场已充分计入瑞士央行25个基点降息的可能。瑞士通胀走低以及瑞郎升值压力增加等因素,共同推动了瑞士央行 采取宽松的货币政策。 6月19日,瑞士央行宣布最新货币政策决议,决定将政策利率下调25个基点至0%,符合市场预期,为2024年3月以来的第六次降息。 数据显示,瑞士5月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比下降了0.1%,这是自2021年以来首次出现负增长。 根据瑞士央行的最新分析,预计瑞士2025年平均年通胀率为0.2%,2026年为0.5%,2027年为0.7%。 与此同时,瑞士央行表示,准备在必要时干预外汇市场。 瑞士央行表示,2025年第一季度,全球经济继续以温和的速度增长。由于贸易紧张局势加剧,未来几个季度的全球经济前景有所恶化。瑞士央行在其基准 情景中预计,未来几个季度全球经济增长将放缓。全球经济前景仍存在高度不确定性。贸易壁垒可能会进一步提高,导致 ...
美联储的“拖延战术”能扛多久?
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The financial market showed minimal reaction to the Fed's decision, with the S&P 500 index down 0.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.10% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.394%, and the dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.46 points [1] Group 2 - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a collective understanding among its economists, with predictions for GDP growth in 2025 revised down to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% [2][3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [3] - Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is anticipated to increase, with core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025 [3] Group 3 - The complexity of inflation is heightened by domestic economic policies and international geopolitical conflicts, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, could significantly impact global inflation [4] - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 officials suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts this year, while others remain skeptical [4][5] Group 4 - High interest rates are suppressing economic activity, with mortgage rates at 6.89% and credit card rates exceeding 20% [5] - The potential for stagflation is a concern, as low retail growth could lead to a chain reaction affecting the job market [5] - The Fed is willing to sacrifice employment and economic growth to maintain a low inflation environment [5] Group 5 - The upcoming earnings reports in July will be crucial for assessing corporate performance amid uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies [6] - The U.S. Treasury issuance market is under scrutiny, reflecting foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. bonds [6] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is questioned in the context of a move away from dollar dominance [6]
欧洲央行管委内格尔:将通胀率恢复到目标水平是欧洲央行促进经济增长的最佳举措。
news flash· 2025-06-19 09:53
欧洲央行管委内格尔:将通胀率恢复到目标水平是欧洲央行促进经济增长的最佳举措。 ...
双双宣布:降息!降息!
中国基金报· 2025-06-19 09:32
【导读】瑞士央行、挪威央行双双宣布:降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 李智 6月19日,瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零,符合市场预期。此外,挪威央行宣布降 息25个基点至4.25%,市场预期维持不变。 瑞士央行降息25个基点 6月19日,瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零,符合市场预期。值得一提的是,这是瑞 士央行连续第六次降息。 瑞士央行预计2025年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1%至1.5%,与此前预测相同;预计2026 年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1% 至 1.5%,此前预测为约1.5%;预计2026年通胀率为 0.5%,低于之前预期的0.8%;预计2027年通胀率为0.7%,低于此前预期的0.8%。 瑞士央行表示,与上一季度相比,通胀压力有所下降。瑞士央行将继续密切关注局势,并在 必要时调整货币政策,以确保通胀在中期内保持在价格稳定的范围内。 2025年第一季度,全球经济继续以温和的速度增长。由于贸易紧张局势加剧,未来几个季度 的全球经济前景恶化。瑞士央行预计全球经济增长将在未来几个季度减弱。美国的通货膨胀 率在未来几个季度可能会上升。相比之下,欧洲通胀压力有望进一步下降。 瑞士央行认为,全球经济形势 ...
瑞士央行行长:由于高度不确定性,我们相信今年剩余时间的经济增长将受到抑制。
news flash· 2025-06-19 08:32
瑞士央行行长:由于高度不确定性,我们相信今年剩余时间的经济增长将受到抑制。 ...
整理:每日全球外汇市场要闻速递(6月19日)
news flash· 2025-06-19 07:03
Group 1: US Monetary Policy - Macquarie now expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, followed by another 25 basis point cut in 2026, revising previous predictions of a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time in June, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials expecting no cuts this year has risen to seven [1] - Powell emphasized uncertainty in the current economic situation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach, and anticipates inflation driven by tariffs to rise in the coming months [1] Group 2: Global Economic Measures - Thailand's Finance Minister plans to propose a 110 billion Thai Baht project to boost the economy next week [2] - The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam indicated a potential adjustment of the credit growth target to 16% to promote economic growth if necessary [2] - Brazil's central bank unexpectedly raised rates by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated a hold at 14.75%, with expectations that the tightening cycle will end [2] Group 3: European and Asian Monetary Policies - ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank will continue to make decisions based on each meeting's circumstances without committing to a clear monetary policy path in advance [2] - South Korea's Ministry of Finance proposed a supplementary government budget plan totaling 30.5 trillion Korean Won, including 20.2 trillion Won in spending and 10.3 trillion Won in tax revenue revisions [2] - The Swedish central bank revised its policy rate forecast for Q3 2025 to an average of 1.99%, down from 2.25%, and for Q4 2025 to 1.92%, also down from 2.25%, indicating the possibility of another rate cut this year [2] Group 4: Russian Economic Outlook - The first deputy CEO of Sberbank expects Russia's GDP to grow by 1% to 2% in 2025, stating that the Ruble is overvalued with a reasonable exchange rate expected between 90 to 95 Rubles per dollar [3] - There is a significant possibility that the benchmark interest rate in Russia will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [3] - For economic recovery, it is suggested that the key interest rate should remain between 12% and 14% [3]
到2030年,房价将是现在4-5倍?真的还是假的?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 05:45
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]