美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔重申，关税影响预计将在未来几个月的通胀数据中显现，但他也承认不确定 因素依然存在。鲍威尔周二在央行领导人讨论会上说，"我们正在关注，预计夏季会看到一些更高的数 字"。但他补充道，关税影响有可能"高于或低于预期，到来的时间可能早于或晚于预期"，政策制定者 对这些有心理准备。尽管特朗普就降息施加强大压力，但美联储今年迄今未改变其基准利率。(新浪财 经) ...

Macro News - Trump stated that there is no need to extend the deadline and will assign tax rates to various countries [2] - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan due to its reluctance to import American rice [2] - The EU is reportedly willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries [2] - Canada has made concessions by canceling the digital services tax, and trade negotiations between the US and Canada will resume with the aim of reaching an agreement by July 21 [2] - Bessent anticipates the signing of a series of new trade agreements, stating that the current issuance of long-term bonds is meaningless, and stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid-July [2] - Despite Republican senators managing to gather votes to initiate debate, the final passage of the bill remains uncertain, with concerns over its potential massive debt scale [2] - Musk criticized the bill as "absurd and destructive," highlighting divisions between hardliners and moderates within the party [2] Institutional Views - Precious metal prices remained volatile in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.11% to $36.33 per ounce [4] - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, with inflation data slightly higher than anticipated, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, which negatively impacted precious metal prices [4] - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, has also contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Future price movements of precious metals will be closely monitored in relation to Federal Reserve policy changes [4] - The projected trading range for Comex gold is between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, while the trading range for Shanghai gold is between 750 and 790 yuan per gram [4] - The projected trading range for Comex silver is between $34 and $37 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between 8500 and 9200 yuan per kilogram [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].

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Group 1 - The international gold price faced downward pressure, closing at $3341.6 per ounce, a decrease of $4.8 or 0.14% [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite, following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, diminished gold's appeal, despite a declining US dollar index providing some support [1] - The US GDP for Q1 2025 contracted by 0.5%, worse than the initial estimate of -0.3% and the revised -0.2% [1] Group 2 - Silver, platinum, and palladium prices rose due to improved risk appetite, with September silver futures increasing by 33.5 cents to $36.885 per ounce, a rise of 0.92% [2] - Platinum surged over 5%, surpassing $1400 per ounce, marking a nearly ten-year high [2] - Palladium also saw an increase of over 8%, reaching a seven-month high [2]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.342, with a recent increase of 0.77% to 8.368 per gram, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The key support level for silver is identified between 8.131 and 8.200 per gram, with a potential downward pressure if this range is breached [3] - The resistance level for silver is concentrated between 8.410 and 8.490 per gram, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of the critical level at 8.500 per gram [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure for interest rate cuts, while also expressing concerns about the declining quality of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - Economists have noted that approximately 30% of the CPI data for May was estimated, which is three times the historical average, raising concerns about the accuracy of inflation and employment data [2] - The May non-farm payroll report indicated an addition of 139,000 jobs, but analysts believe this number may be revised down to around 100,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, acknowledges positive inflation data but emphasizes the need for further clarity on how tariffs will impact prices before making significant policy adjustments [1] Group 1 - Recent inflation data over the past two to three months has been described as "quite positive," indicating that the anti-inflation path is on track [1] - The Federal Reserve has not yet seen the full impact of tariffs, leading to a cautious approach in understanding the situation before altering policy outlooks [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials support the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as July, but Chairman Powell indicates a reluctance to rush into cuts while awaiting economic responses to new policies, including tariffs [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：关税的影响在未来几个月可能会进一步增强。关税对通胀数据的全面影响还需要时间 才能显现。 ...

美联储哈玛克：最新的通胀数据令人振奋。 ...

与此同时，美联储新任监管副主席鲍曼也表态支持降息，认为在通胀可控的情况下，调整利率有助于维持健康的劳动力市场。不过，美联储仍保持谨慎态 度，特别是近期的重点地缘风险持续上升，全球经济不确定性进一步增加。 市场分析认为，美联储的降息预期将取决于未来几个月的通胀数据。如果关税影响持续有限，且就业市场保持稳定，七月或九月可能成为政策调整的关键时 点。古尔斯比的言论强化了市场对宽松政策的期待，但最终决策仍需更多经济数据的支持。 上周，美联储决定维持利率在百分之四点二五到四点五区间不变，但为下半年降息敞开大门。点阵图显示，美联储十九位官员中有十人预计今年至少降息两 次，两人支持降息一次，显示内部仍存在一定分歧。古尔斯比指出，目前的关键在于观察关税对经济的后续影响，尤其是价格传导机制是否会在未来几个月 显现。 值得注意的是，部分行业已出现"成本转嫁"现象，即关税负担在供应链各环节分摊，而非完全由消费者承担。古尔斯比表示："我们正在评估，这是否意味 着通胀压力已被消化，还是未来数据会出现新的变化。"这一观察与美联储理事沃勒的观点一致，沃勒上周五表示，如果通胀保持稳定，最早可能在七月降 息。 智通财经六月二十四日讯，美联储近 ...