钛媒体App 1月1日消息，2025年结束，美元创下八年来最大年度跌幅，投资者认为，若下一任美联储主 席如预期般选择大力降息，美元将进一步贬值。美元即期指数全年下跌了约8%，交易员们现在押注其 将进一步走低。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普4月发布关税新政后，美元下挫，此后未能大幅反弹，部分原 因是市场预期特朗普将任命一位鸽派人士接替任期将于明年结束的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。野村外 汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："美联储将是第一季度美元走势的最大影响因素。不仅是1月和3月的会 议，也包括鲍威尔任期结束后谁将接班。"（广角观察） ...

"哈塞特作为一段时间以来的领跑者，其当选基本已被市场消化；但沃什或沃勒上任后可能不会那么快 降息，对美元更为有利，"Monex Inc外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett表示。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 野村外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："美联储将是第一季度美元走势的最大影响因素。不仅是1月和3月 的会议，也包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束后谁将接任美联储主席。" 由于市场已将明年至少两次降息计入价格，美国的政策路径与部分发达国家同行出现分歧，进一步削弱 了美元的吸引力。 数据显示，美元布仓短暂看多后，本月恢复悲观立场；自4月份关税引发对于美国经济的担忧以来，对 美元的悲观看法持续主导市场。 美元势将录得八年来最大的年度跌幅，投资者认为，若下一任美联储主席如预期般采取较为深度的降息 措施，美元将进一步走弱。 目前来看，一切都取决于美联储的动向，以及将由谁来接替鲍威尔。 今年迄今，彭博美元即期指数已下跌8.1%。在特朗普4月宣布"解放日"关税后美元大跌，随后随着他激 进地行动，以确保明年任命一位鸽派人士担任美联储主席，美元持续承压。 由于市场已将明年至少两次降息计入价格，美国的政策路径与 ...

金价在周四的走势堪称教科书级的冲高回落。受CPI数据低于预期的影响，美联储1月降息概率略升， 美债收益率跌至一周低位，两年期美债收益率报3.462%，10年期降至4.12%。这一环境为金价注入动 能，推动其触及4374美元/盎司，接近10月20日创下的历史高点。然而，好景不长，随着市场消化数 据，黄金的通胀对冲魅力迅速褪色。通胀下降速度快于预期，降低了购买"通胀保险"的吸引力。黄金多 年来大幅上涨的部分原因，正是高通胀侵蚀法定货币价值，如今通胀放缓让这一逻辑动摇。此外，技术 面压力不容忽视。金价逼近4381美元的历史高点附近，多头选择获利了结，导致涨幅迅速蒸发。美元兑 一篮子货币下跌，本应利好黄金，但华尔街股市上涨分散了资金流向这些年来黄金的强势源于通胀侵 蚀，但当前数据让其疲软合情合理。同时，政府停摆引发的就业数据波动加剧了不确定性。综上所述， 这次金价冲高回落是美国通胀数据与市场情绪博弈的结果。尽管短期疲软，黄金的长期趋势仍积极向 上，专家目标指向更高峰值。投资者应关注美联储动向、数据修正和政治提名，避免盲目追高。在全球 不确定性中，黄金依旧是可靠的避险港湾，但需结合白银钯金动态和宏观指标，制定灵活策略。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global copper prices are experiencing volatility due to liquidity pressures and market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market previously anticipated a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but this expectation has dropped to around 40% due to emerging domestic issues in the U.S. [1] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, complicating the central bank's ability to manage market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent events such as the U.S. government shutdown and delays in the release of key economic data have contributed to the current market volatility [1] - The end of the year is typically a time for institutions to realize profits, making the Federal Reserve's actions a catalyst for portfolio adjustments [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Impact - The fluctuations in policy expectations have led to a turbulent trading environment for commodities, particularly in the context of copper prices [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures settling at $3546 per ounce as of September 1, marking a 31.74% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - London spot gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange prices are at $3478 per ounce and 794.66 yuan per gram respectively, with year-to-date increases of 29.58% and 25.68% [1] - The average daily increase in London spot gold prices for Q1, Q2, and Q3 (up to September 1) were 0.295%, 0.080%, and 0.09% respectively, indicating a higher average increase in Q3 compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with a 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [1] - Fed Chair Powell signaled a potential rate cut based on the current labor market conditions and rising stagflation risks [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained stable around 4% to 4.2%, reflecting a softening labor supply and demand [4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - U.S. inflation rates have shown an upward trend, with CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates at 2.7% and 3% respectively as of July 2025, higher than the levels in April [5] - The imposition of tariffs has been identified as a factor hindering the downward trend of inflation in the U.S. [5] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised following political pressures, which may affect market confidence [6]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's actions, which are influencing gold prices and investor sentiment [1] - There is anticipation for a potential rebound in gold prices, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investors [1] Market Analysis - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements [1] - The analysis aims to provide insights into whether current conditions are favorable for gold investments [1]

Group 1 - The international silver market is experiencing a fluctuating trend, with the price at $37.83 per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase as investors await the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement for further Federal Reserve cues [1] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, adding uncertainty to global trade dynamics [3] - The U.S. inflation rate has surged to 2.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of imported goods, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] Group 2 - Silver prices opened at $38.094, peaked at $38.374, and closed at $37.685, indicating a bearish trend with potential targets at $37.8 and $37.5, and further support at $37.30-$37.50 [4] - The silver market is under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 88.00, with a significant support level at $37.30; a break below this level could lead to testing the next support at $35.65-$35.85 [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price experienced a significant drop due to the rise of the US dollar following the release of the US CPI report, with market sentiment suggesting that President Trump's tariff policies have increased price pressures, leading the Federal Reserve to remain cautious [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a minor trend oscillation phase, with short-term bearish momentum as it has fallen below the 60-day moving average on an hourly basis, and the RSI showing oversold conditions [1] - Key resistance and support levels for gold are identified at $3348 and $3308 respectively, with a suggested strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil prices saw a slight increase, driven by expectations of stable demand from the US and Asian countries, reflecting improved economic prospects in these major oil-consuming nations [2] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected decrease in crude oil inventories by 3.6 million barrels, significantly better than the anticipated increase, indicating strong US oil demand [2] - Technical indicators show that WTI crude oil is currently trading between the 50-day and 200-day EMA, with key support at $65 and resistance at $70, suggesting a potential range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - For gold, a long position is recommended in the $3308/$3313 range with a stop loss at $3303 and a target of $3345, while a short position is suggested in the $3347/$3342 range with a stop loss at $3354 and a target of $3310 [3][6] - For WTI crude oil, a long position is advised in the $65.5/$65.0 range with a stop loss at $64.5 and a target of $67.5, while a short position is recommended in the $67.5/$68.0 range with a stop loss at $68.5 and a target of $65.5 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].

Group 1 - The article focuses on the movements of the Federal Reserve and the impact of geopolitical disturbances on gold trading [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis to interpret the intentions of major market players and to trade accordingly [1] - The article invites participants to join a free training camp led by expert instructors, limited to the first 50 sign-ups [1]