日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价走势符合预期，日本央行将继续加息。 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year, although the Fed itself may not yet be aware of this direction [1] - Derivatives market traders predict that the Fed will remain inactive until September, followed by a "rapid and significant" rate cut, with expectations of a 100 basis point drop to a range of 3.25%-3.5% by June next year [1] - Top economists warn that the market may be misjudging the Fed's stance, emphasizing that the Fed has prioritized its 2% inflation target and has implemented the most aggressive tightening cycle in history [1][2] Group 2 - The optimism regarding rate cuts stems from the Fed's previous slow response to inflation, but this has led to an underestimation of its subsequent hawkish resolve [2] - Former Fed officials indicate that Chairman Powell is under pressure to avoid being labeled as a failure in the fight against inflation, with recent statements reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation [2] - There is a possibility of continued rate hikes if inflation spirals out of control, highlighting the complexity of the current economic situation [3]

金十数据5月27日讯，周二公布的数据显示，日本服务业通胀领先指标--服务业生产者物价指数在4月上 涨3.1%，令市场仍然预期日本央行将进一步加息。日本央行数据显示，3月服务业生产者物价指数修正 后增幅为3.3%。该数据衡量企业之间相互收取的服务价格。日本央行去年结束了长达十年的大规模刺 激计划，并于1月将短期利率上调至0.5%，认为日本即将持续达成2%通胀目标。虽然央行已暗示准备进 一步加息，但美国提高关税对经济的影响迫使央行下调了经济增长预期，也令下一次加息时机的决策变 得更加复杂。 日本4月企业服务通胀率达到3.1%，仍令人预期日本央行继续加息 ...

Core Points - Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, defended the Fed's actions during the pandemic and emphasized the importance of public service in his speech at Princeton University [1][2] - Powell acknowledged that the Fed should have acted more quickly to raise interest rates in 2021, but he maintained that the measures taken helped avoid the worst economic outcomes [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Powell described the Fed as a "key first responder" during the pandemic, initiating asset purchase programs to maintain low long-term interest rates amid a severe global economic downturn [1] - The Fed's actions included purchasing trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities [1] Group 2: Inflation and Criticism - The U.S. inflation rate surged to its highest level in 40 years in 2022, leading to criticism of the Fed's response during that period [1] - Kevin Walsh, a potential successor to Powell, criticized him for being "passive" during the inflationary period [1] Group 3: Higher Education - Powell referred to U.S. higher education institutions, including Ivy League schools, as "national assets that the world envies" despite recent threats from the Trump administration to cut funding [2]

日本长债周五维持高位。30年期国债收益率小幅下挫至3.065%，维持高位逼近周三创下的3.185%历史高点，而40年期国债收益率仅较周四创下的3.675%纪 录高点小幅回落至3.665%。 "超长期国债变得'无法消化'的风险依然存在，"瑞穗(Mizuho)分析师在周五的一份研究报告中警告，"减少超长期债券发行（从而缩短久期）的动力相对强 劲。" DBS集团研究部的外汇和信贷策略师Chang Wei Liang则表示，除非日本的长期通胀预期在5个月内上升了1%，否则超长期日本国债收益率的飙升意味着日本 国债市场提供的平均实际利率显著跃升。这将鼓励日本资产管理公司的资金回流，并进一步支撑日元的复苏。 周五公布的数据显示，日本4月核心消费者通胀率达到3.5%，创下两年多来的最快年增速，这将继续给日本央行施加更多加息压力。这一数据高于3月份的 3.2%，同时也超过经济学家预期的3.4%。 在经历动荡一周后，日本长债周五维持高位。由于通胀和财政担忧削弱了对债务的需求，超长期收益率创下历史新高。 基准10年期日本国债收益率则小幅下降0.5个基点至1.555%。2年期收益率上涨0.5个基点至0.735%，5年期收益率则保持 ...

Group 1 - Japan's core inflation rose at its fastest pace in over two years in April, with the core consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and up from 3.2% in March, indicating persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [1][2] - The inflation rate for food accelerated from 6.2% in March to 7.0% in April, driven by significant price increases in various food items, including a 98.6% rise in rice prices and a 31% increase in chocolate prices [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider another interest rate hike by October, despite market skepticism due to the impact of U.S. trade tensions, with a slight majority of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase by year-end [1][3] Group 2 - A separate inflation index, excluding fuel and fresh food, rose by 3.0% year-on-year in April, up from 2.9% in March, indicating strong underlying demand-driven price pressures [2] - Service sector inflation was more subdued at 1.3% in April, down from 1.4% in March, suggesting companies are slow to pass on rising labor costs [2] - The potential for further increases in consumer prices in May is anticipated as the effects of government measures to curb inflation wane, with ongoing global weather patterns and rice supply shortages likely to keep food prices elevated [2]

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至5月21日，黄金ETF持有量为919.88吨，较上一交易日 减持了1.72吨。 最新路透调查显示，在日本经济面临关键转折点时，近三分之二的日本企业正急切呼吁日本央行暂停加 息计划。这项由日经研究在5月7日至16日期间进行的调查，覆盖了504家日本企业，其中224家匿名回 应。结果显示，高达65%的企业明确表示希望央行暂缓加息，另有10%的企业甚至呼吁降息，仅25%的 企业支持继续加息。这一强烈呼声背后，是日本经济第一季度意外萎缩的现实，以及特朗普政府关税政 策带来的巨大不确定性。 多家受访企业高管直言，特朗普关税政策如同一片难以驱散的阴云，正严重干扰企业的战略规划。一位 不愿具名的服务业公司经理在调查中写道："当前最大的挑战是根本看不清谈判走向。任何利率调整都 应该等到政策能见度恢复后再做决定。"更严峻的是，电子行业高管指出，若美国对日本商品加征关 税，叠加加息导致的日元升值，出口行业将遭受"双重暴击"——既要承担关税成本，又要面对汇率波动 带来的利润侵蚀。 【上一交易日黄金行情解析】 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the rate hike process according to committee member Akira Noguchi [1] Group 1 - Akira Noguchi emphasizes the importance of flexibility in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the interest rate hike process [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of flexibility in monetary policy as the Bank of Japan navigates interest rate adjustments [1] - It suggests that setting a predetermined terminal rate could limit the central bank's ability to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions about the appropriate approach to interest rate management in Japan's economic context [1]

金十数据5月20日讯，三菱日联的分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中表示，日元应该会继续得到支 撑，因为日本央行发出的信号仍倾向于进一步加息，而其他10国集团央行正在降息。"即使日本央行最 终不再加息，它也不太可能恢复货币宽松政策，这将继续支撑日元。"与此同时，美国财长贝森特和日 本财务大臣加藤胜信本星期将会晤，讨论包括外汇在内的问题。Halpenny说，贝森特认为日本央行的货 币政策导致美元兑日元汇率被高估，这一观点可能会抑制日本央行降息的意愿。 三菱日联：日本央行的政策立场可能继续支撑日元 ...