Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in import tariffs has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation in the US in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the newly - added non - farm payrolls in the US in July or far below expectations, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, leaving room for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Gold**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 783.68 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London gold spot was 3343.30 dollars/ounce, down 36.75 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Silver**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 9163 yuan/ten - gram, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London silver spot was 37.76 dollars/ounce, down 0.07 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 495.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 66.71 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 64 dollars/barrel. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.22%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.91%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.38%. The US dollar index was 98.7427 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Gold**: A person named Bessent hinted that the Fed should be open to a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and hoped to take office before the next month's interest - rate meeting. The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest since February. The US tariff revenue in July was 28 billion dollars, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 273%. The budget deficit in the ten months to July was 1.63 trillion dollars. After deducting calendar differences, the budget deficit in July was 291 billion dollars, a 10% increase from the same period last year [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies of Different Countries**: The European Central Bank paused interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The UK central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/ten - gram [1].

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra expands the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush advisor Mark Sobel [1] - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing core personal consumption expenditures inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - UK Chief Economist Hugh Pill warns that while inflation pressures may ease, changes in long-term pricing and wage-setting behavior could delay future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - July electric vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with used electric vehicle sales hitting 36,700 units [1] - The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus on future rate hikes, but concerns about the impact of US tariffs have lowered short-term rate hike expectations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa reveals that the US will modify a presidential order to provide tax relief measures for Japan, refunding overpaid tariffs and reducing tariffs on cars and parts [1]

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行周五公布的7月货币政策会议审议委员意见摘要显示，一位委员暗示，鉴 于美国关税的影响，日本央行可能在今年年底再次加息。 该委员表示，评估关税影响至少需要两到三个月的时间，但如果美国经济能够比预期更好地承受自身关 税政策的影响，那么这也将有助于减轻对日本经济的损害。 根据周五公布的意见摘要，该委员表示："在这种情况下，日本央行或许能够改变目前的观望态度，甚 至可能在今年年底就采取行动。"摘要并未透露具体是哪位委员发表上述言论。 日本央行于7月31日将基准利率维持在0.5%不变，符合市场普遍预期，同时上调了物价预测，并淡化了 与全球贸易格局相关的不确定性看法。在利率决议公布后的新闻发布会上，日本央行行长植田和男降低 了市场对近期加息的预期。 一位委员表示，即使日美达成贸易协议，贸易政策及其影响的不确定性仍然很高，他敦促日本央行维持 宽松的金融政策以支持经济。 摘要显示，委员们对通胀强度的看法不一。三年多来，通胀率一直保持在或高于日本央行设定的2%目 标水平。日本央行是否认为消费者通胀趋势可持续，仍存在疑问。 一位委员表示，基础通胀率似乎处于日本央行设定的2%的目标水平附近。不过，委员们也 ...

路透社的一项调查显示，大多数经济学家预计日本央行将在年底前再次加息，掉期利率表明10月和12月 加息的可能性分别为54%和71%。 日本央行7月份的会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者对通胀风险表示担忧，部分委员认为，由于政策利率 (目前为0.5%)低于对经济中性水平，日本央行必须在可能的情况下继续加息，以免错失机会。 日本央行在7月底的会议上维持利率不变，但上调了通胀预测，并提供了比三个月前更乐观的经济前 景。在季度展望报告中，日本央行首次明确指出了持续食品价格上涨可能引发普遍通胀的风险，为恢复 加息奠定了基础。 ...

【日本央行或因美关税影响有限于年底前重启加息】据日本央行周五公布的7月货币政策会议意见摘 要，一位委员称，若美国关税影响被证实较小，日本央行可能在今年年底前结束当前的观望模式，重启 加息。另一位委员指出，日本央行的政策利率目前为0.5%，低于被认为对中性的水平，所以央行必须 继续加息。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

最近，市场上有一件事格外引人注目：美联储主席的继任人选浮出水面。 这可不是普通的人事变动。谁来接替这个位置，意味着未来美国货币政策的方向。加息还是降息，放水还 是紧缩，市场怎么走、资本怎么流，背后都离不开这个核心岗位的动向。 本周有个关键信息：候选人已经缩小到了四位。而且这四人中，出现了明显的"领跑者"。 先看前两个入围者，名字都叫凯文，一个叫凯文·哈塞特，另一个叫凯文·沃尔什。 哈塞特的背景不难看懂，曾经担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，现在还在担任经济顾问，和决策圈的联系非 常紧密。他对过去的政策思路非常熟悉，属于那种"贴身型"技术官员。 沃尔什则是另一种类型，之前在2006年到2011年担任美联储理事，时间点非常关键，他在金融危机那几年 参与了不少重要政策讨论。 这种人讲求稳妥，也有实战经验。据说他在华尔街的评价还不错，不算特别激进，但也不是完全鸽派。 接下来是第三位：沃勒。他现在就是美联储理事，不是局外人。上周他在利率决策会上投了反对票，说现 在通胀压力其实没有那么严重，反而是就业和经济增长开始走弱。所以他的观点是支持降息。 这个观点引起了不小关注，因为在当前货币政策方向不明朗的情况下，公开支持降息就代表着 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's central bank must exercise caution regarding interest rate hikes due to the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the fragile economy [1][2] - Saito Ken emphasizes that the Bank of Japan should act carefully to avoid cooling the economy, which is currently trying to recover from decades of low growth and inflation [2][3] - The Bank of Japan ended a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January, but concerns about inflation remain [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs is overshadowing Japan's economic outlook [4] - Saito Ken calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida after the ruling coalition's poor performance in the recent Senate elections, which has weakened their control over the legislature [5][6] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) needs to seek a stable coalition government under new leadership to maintain consistent policies [6]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, raising concerns about the consumption-driven recovery of the world's fourth-largest economy, with a year-on-year decline of 1.3% after adjusting for inflation [1] - The core inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target, potentially providing room for interest rate hikes, although geopolitical and tariff factors are increasing economic risks [1] - Despite a 3% year-on-year increase in special payments in June due to summer bonuses, it has not kept pace with rising inflation, indicating broader pressures on consumer spending [1] Group 2 - Nominal overall cash earnings increased by 2.5% in June, reaching 511,210 yen, marking the largest increase in four months, and surpassing the revised 1.4% increase in May [1] - Basic wages rose by 2.1%, while overtime pay increased by 0.9%, highlighting the importance of wage trends in maintaining consumer momentum [1]

此外，美日达成贸易协议也降低了双方贸易的不确定性。据新华社报道，美国原定于8月1日对日本开征 的所谓"对等关税"税率将由25%下调至15%，备受关注的汽车关税税率也降至15%。这或许为日本央行 未来加息铺平了道路。 日本央行在刚过去的利率决议中按兵不动，却在央行会议纪要中释放出鹰派信号。 当地时间8月5日，日本央行公布的6月货币政策会议纪要显示，如果经济增长和通胀继续按照其预期发 展，日本央行将进一步加息。同时，大多数日本央行成员支持暂时维持利率不变，但包括日本央行行长 植田和男在内的多数成员倾向于最终加息，预计中期内经济增长和通胀将会回升。 日本央行的"鹰派"表态，很大程度出于通胀"高烧不退"。虽然日本6月核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比 涨幅较5月回落，但仍然处于高位。数据显示，过去7个月，日本通胀率一直维持在或高于3%的水平， 导致家庭实际收入持续下降，且目前日本的物价涨幅已超过七国集团（G7）其他国家。 当外界猜测日本央行10月加息的大门已经敞开时，日本却面临着可能步入经济衰退的风险。一方面，受 对美出口下滑的影响，日本出口总额已连续两个月同比下降；另一方面，日本政府已经把景气动向指数 评估转为"恶化 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 报道 日本央行在刚过去的利率决议中按兵不动，却在央行会议纪要中释放出鹰派信号。 当地时间8月5日，日本央行公布的6月货币政策会议纪要显示，如果经济增长和通胀继续按照其预期发 展，日本央行将进一步加息。同时，大多数日本央行成员支持暂时维持利率不变，但包括日本央行行长 植田和男在内的多数成员倾向于最终加息，预计中期内经济增长和通胀将会回升。 日本央行的"鹰派"表态，很大程度出于通胀"高烧不退"。虽然日本6月核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比 涨幅较5月回落，但仍然处于高位。数据显示，过去7个月，日本通胀率一直维持在或高于3%的水平， 导致家庭实际收入持续下降，且目前日本的物价涨幅已超过七国集团（G7）其他国家。 10月能加息吗？ 尽管日本央行在上一轮利率决议中将政策利率维持在0.5%的水平，连续四次按兵不动，但其上调通胀 预测的举措，仍被市场解读成是为加息铺路。 具体来看，日本央行全面上调了2025财年至2027财年的核心CPI通胀预测，还把对通胀风险的评估从之 前的"倾向于下行"调整为"总体均衡"。 此外，美日达成贸易协议也降低了双方贸易的不确定性。据新华社报道，美国原定于8月1日对日 ...