Currency Market Overview - The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate halted its upward trend that began on June 18, fluctuating around 1.1800 during European trading on Wednesday [1] - The British Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 on Thursday [1] - The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) maintained its overnight rebound, fluctuating around 143.50 [1] - The Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD) remained in a range below the year-to-date high of 0.6590 reached on Tuesday [1] - The New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD) showed positive momentum near 0.6050 [1] - The Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) fluctuated in a narrow range around 1.3650 [1] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. ADP employment figures for June at 20:15 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, indicating flexibility in decision-making [2][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before autumn, with a guarantee of a cut by September at the latest [5] International Central Bank Commentary - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that current interest rates are below neutral levels, with any rate hike dependent on three inflation dynamics [7] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde mentioned that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, emphasizing vigilance regarding inflation [8] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the direction of interest rates remains downward, with significant uncertainty regarding terminal rate levels [9] Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing short-term overbought conditions with immediate support at 1.1800 and further support at 1.1740 and 1.1700-1.1690 [16] - The AUD/USD maintains a bullish outlook, with potential resistance at 0.6583 and further at 0.6650, while initial support is at 0.6529 [17] - The GBP/USD has shown a slight decline below the 20-period simple moving average, with next support at 1.3650 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]

欧洲央行管委雷恩：汇率并非政策目标。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

美元兑日元涨0.5%，报144.14。 ...

美元/日元上涨0.5%，至144.14。 ...

路透调查：预计印度卢比兑美元9月底将跌至85.75；12月底为85.50；2026年6月底为86.13。 美元/印度卢比 ...

6 月复盘：央行呵护下资金中枢小幅下移 6 月资金面继续宽松，主要体现在以下三个方面。①DR001、DR007、DR014 运行中枢较 5 月下行 11bp、2bp、1bp。② 今年以来 DR001 一改往日围绕政策利率波动的态势，多运行在政策利率上方，不过 6 月 DR001 运行在政策利率下方的 天数比例升至 70%。③DR007 与政策利率利差"反季节性"收窄 1bp 至 18bp,而 2018 年以来 6 月此利差较 5 月多走阔。 原因在于央行态度仍然偏暖，主要体现在以下三个方面。①央行在 6 月 5 日、13 日两次开展买断式逆回购操作，且相 较于此前月末公告、本月均在开展操作前一天就发布招标公告，体现了央行呵护资金面及加强与市场交流的意图。② 央行连续 4 个月净投放 MLF，6 月继续增量续作 1180 亿。③今年 6 月央行通过逆回购、MLF、买断式逆回购合计净投 放资金规模为 2018 年以来同期次高、也远高于多数年份同期规模。 央行投放中长期资金呵护下，同业存单发行利率也震荡下行。6 月同业存单到期规模创历史新高，续发压力下存单发 行规模创历史次高。不过同业存单发行利率在 5 月中下旬上 ...

7月2日，在岸人民币兑美元16:30收盘报7.1670，较上一交易日下跌52个基点。 ...

英镑兑美元GBP/USD失守1.37，日内跌幅0.34%。 英镑/美元 ...