以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者徐奇渊 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员 徐奇渊 当今全球产业链重构面临三重变局：地缘冲突、技术变革与中间国家再定 位。在此背景下，中国既面临产业外迁、美国技术"软封锁"与博弈复杂化 的压力，也拥有重要机遇，可凭借超大规模市场和完整产业体系，从"世 界 工 厂 " 升 级 为 " 全 球 供 应 链 关 键 枢 纽 "； 加 强 自 主 创 新 ， 结 合 产 业 链 优 势、市场体量与制度供给能力，深化与全球南方国家、中间国家、关键矿 产国等国家合作，成为"规则共建者"，赢得与自身经济体量和发展阶段相 匹配的制度性话语权。 2025年，世界在多重裂变中步入一个极不平凡的历史节点。在2025年4月初美国政府推出"对等关税"之后，连英国《经济学人》杂志也不得 不感慨，中国多年前提出的"百年未有之大变局"确实有"先见之明"。 与此同时，这一年的地缘政治冲突也持续不断，一波未平一波又起。在技术变革领域，人工智能（AI）与数字技术变革叠加中美科技竞争 显著加剧，技术体系的局部双轨化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is making significant advancements in highway construction, with a total investment exceeding 440 billion yuan and the completion of 28 projects since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance connectivity and improve travel efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Highway Network Expansion - The total length of highways in Shandong is expected to exceed 9,300 kilometers by the end of this year, with the proportion of six-lane and above highways increasing to 41% [1] - Major north-south and east-west corridors have been expanded, including the Beijing-Taiwan, Jinan-Guangzhou, and Shenyang-Haikou routes, enhancing connections with key economic regions [1] - The network has been further strengthened with the addition of five new Yellow River bridges and an increase in inter-provincial exits to 27, achieving a 97.8% coverage rate of "double highways" in counties [1] Group 2: Service Quality and Efficiency - Shandong has implemented a "full lifecycle" approach to road maintenance, maintaining a leading national standard in road conditions [2] - Speed limits have been raised on 848 kilometers of road, and 63 smart cloud toll stations have been established, improving traffic efficiency by over 30% [2] - Service areas are evolving into multifunctional complexes, featuring local cuisine and facilities for drivers, such as showers and rest areas [2] Group 3: Technological and Green Innovations - Shandong is at the forefront of smart highway construction, with the completion of the first upgraded smart highway and the first zero-carbon smart highway in the country, totaling 600 kilometers of smart roads [2] - The province leads in green transformation, with over 833 megawatts of photovoltaic capacity installed along roadways, and comprehensive charging facilities in service areas [2] - Key technological advancements include the innovative application of smart paving and intelligent beam production in highway upgrades, providing replicable "Shandong experience" for the industry [2] Group 4: Preparations for Peak Travel Seasons - In anticipation of the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, Shandong has deployed measures to enhance road network monitoring, congestion management, and charging supply guarantees to ensure safe and smooth highway operations [2]

党的十八大以来，美丽中国建设迈出重大步伐，我国生态环境保护发生历史性、转折性、全局性变化。 但面对新形势新需求，生态环境保护在实践中仍面临污染防治、生态修复、资源利用、治理体系四大维 度的突出问题，制约了长效守护效能的充分释放。 一是在污染防治层面，协同治理有待进一步加强，结构性污染仍然存在。大气方面，臭氧污染成为夏季 主要污染问题，PM2.5与臭氧协同控制难度大；水环境方面，部分流域支流、农村黑臭水体治理滞后， 农业面源污染防控短板突出；土壤方面，污染源头管控不到位，修复技术和资金保障不足，固废、危废 处置仍存在区域不平衡问题。 二是在生态修复层面，系统性修复仍存在不足，生态系统功能未完全恢复。部分地区的生态修复重工 程、轻管护，修复后生态系统稳定性差。生物多样性保护依然存在短板，珍稀濒危物种栖息地保护范围 不足，跨区域生态修复缺乏统筹规划，生态保护红线管控刚性不足，人为干扰问题时有发生。 作者单位：生态环境部环境规划院 "十五五"时期，要继续以持续改善生态环境质量为核心，以改革创新为动力，强化系统思维，统筹污染 防治、生态修复和资源利用，健全多元共治的生态环境保护体系，推动我国生态环境保护工作再上新台 阶 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The pulp inventory has significantly decreased, leading to a notable rebound in pulp prices. The average closing price of pulp futures has risen by 563.2 CNY/ton to 5303.6 CNY/ton, with inventory levels dropping to an average of 154,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,375.8 tons [3][9] - The packaging paper prices are showing a mixed trend, with corrugated paper prices slightly decreasing by 30 CNY/ton, while other types like boxboard and white card paper remain stable. The long-term outlook suggests that the reduction in production by leading companies will continue to support price recovery [3][6] - The release of the "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" aims to provide funding support for the industry's green and low-carbon transformation, filling a gap in the national framework [4] - The industry is expected to experience a "supply optimization + cost support + policy backing" scenario, enhancing the sector's configuration value. The demand for packaging paper is showing resilience, while the supply side is improving due to production cuts [3][26] Summary by Sections Industry News - The "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" were released to support the green transformation of the industry, with Guangdong's paper and board production reaching 26.48 million tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [4] Market Trends - The pulp market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations for pulp prices to recover year-on-year due to limited new capacity in 2026. The cost advantages of integrated pulp and paper companies are expected to become more pronounced [3][5] - The packaging paper sector is anticipated to see a recovery in price levels, with the supply expansion phase nearing its end. The industry is expected to improve capacity utilization and price levels in 2026 [6] Investment Strategy - The current phase is critical for "valuation recovery + industry prosperity," suggesting a focus on "pulp-paper integration + policy beneficiaries." Companies with integrated pulp-paper operations are expected to benefit from cost advantages and profit elasticity as pulp prices recover [26]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's plan to relax the ban on fuel vehicles has faced opposition from Stellantis, which argues that the revised policy lacks a clear growth roadmap for the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Stellantis' Position - Stellantis CEO, Antonio Filosa, criticized the EU's proposal, stating it does not provide necessary measures for the automotive industry to return to growth [1] - Filosa indicated that without growth, it is difficult to consider additional investments, which are essential for building a resilient supply chain crucial for European employment and prosperity [1] - The EU's plan allows manufacturers to emit 10% of 2021 levels and continue selling some fuel and hybrid vehicles, but concerns arise regarding the feasibility and cost of offsetting emissions through low-carbon steel and sustainable fuels [1] Group 2: Reactions from the Automotive Industry - The response from the European automotive industry is divided; Renault welcomed the proposal, while the German automotive industry association described it as "disastrous" due to excessive implementation barriers [2] - EU officials maintain that the new emissions offset mechanism preserves the ambition of the original 2035 ban, emphasizing support for the industry and denying any doubts about climate goals [2] - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned manufacturers against relying on internal combustion engines, urging a faster transition to electric vehicles as the future of mobility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese energy sector has shown resilience and progress in 2023, with a focus on stable supply, expansion of renewable energy capacity, and advancements in energy technology, contributing to high-quality economic development amidst global supply chain challenges [1] Group 1: Supply Assurance - The electricity load in China reached new highs during the summer, with total electricity consumption exceeding 1 trillion kilowatt-hours in July and August, marking a historical milestone [2] - The total installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with total electricity consumption surpassing 10 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] - The coal production is projected to exceed 4.8 billion tons, maintaining a reasonable supply margin, while oil and gas production is set to reach historical highs by 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Green Transition Achievements - As of September 2023, the total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 2.198 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, accounting for 59.1% of the total power generation capacity [4] - The Dashi Gorge Hydropower Project, a significant water conservancy project, is expected to generate over 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually, meeting the needs of 650,000 households [4] - The government aims to achieve a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching six times the 2020 level by 2035, requiring an annual addition of approximately 200 million kilowatts over the next decade [5][6] Group 3: Winter Peak Preparation - The energy supply for winter is a top priority, with significant investments in power grid infrastructure to ensure reliable electricity and heating supply [7] - The average daily coal production has remained above 12 million tons since October, indicating a solid foundation for coal supply during the winter peak [8] - Natural gas supply is stable, with continuous production increases and enhanced storage capabilities, ensuring adequate supply during peak demand [8]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of "dual carbon" goals, guiding the financial industry towards a comprehensive green transformation [1] - Trust companies and leasing companies are identified as key players in supporting green transformation, leveraging their unique advantages [1][2] - In 2024, trust companies will focus on green low-carbon industries, with significant investments in infrastructure green upgrades (59.39 billion) and energy green low-carbon transition (52.00 billion), accounting for 32.60% and 28.55% of their total investments respectively [2] Group 2 - Leasing companies are actively developing green finance strategies, focusing on clean energy sectors such as wind, solar, and hydropower, with companies like Hebei Jinzheng holding nearly 800 distributed solar power stations [3] - Trust and leasing companies are also involved in biodiversity protection and pollution control, with a total of 19 green charitable trusts registered, amounting to 19.46 million, targeting environmental protection and green rural construction [3][4] - Companies like Northern Trust and Xingye Jinzheng are establishing green charitable trusts and financing solutions to support biodiversity and pollution reduction efforts [4] Group 3 - Differentiated development is crucial for non-bank financial institutions like trust and leasing companies to promote high-quality green finance [5] - Companies are encouraged to leverage regional characteristics and focus on their core strengths to implement targeted green finance strategies [5][6] - For instance, Hebei Jinzheng plans to develop distributed solar business and independent energy storage equipment leasing in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [6] Group 4 - Trust companies with energy-related backgrounds are utilizing their resources to support green asset securitization and green industry funds, enhancing their market capabilities [7] - National Grid Leasing aims to optimize cooperation models for pumped storage projects, focusing on energy-saving upgrades and smart grid construction [7]

珠江潮涌，湾区扬帆。在粤港澳大湾区建设向纵深推进的关键阶段，广州期货依托区域产业基础和金融 生态，持续提升服务实体经济的能力，积极参与期货市场高质量发展进程。作为广州越秀资本集团旗下 核心成员，广州期货如今已成长为深耕湾区、覆盖全国的综合型期货服务商，用专业能力诠释金融担 当，用创新实践激活市场活力。 [聚焦产业需求 产融协同赋能发展] 金融的本质是服务实体经济。广州期货坚持将服务实体经济作为业务核心，明确"立足广州，服务湾 区，辐射全国"的发展定位，围绕湾区产业需求，深化产品与服务创新，不断增强服务实体经济的能 力。 夯实基础，创新求变。广州期货积极把握行业战略机遇期，紧跟实体需求，推进业务向产业化、机构化 转型，在投研咨询、数字化能力、交易风控体系完善及专业人才队伍建设等方面持续下功夫，做精做细 做专客户服务，全面提升服务质效。2025年，广州期货联合多方监管及行业机构，面向湾区大宗商品产 业链企业，成功协助组织多场大型期货专题培训，开展金融工具赋能、产业链对接等专项服务，助力湾 区企业在转型升级中抢占先机。在服务绿色转型发展方面，广州期货聚焦新能源相关品种，强化研究与 服务支持体系，积极开展各类市场培育 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes high-quality economic and social development, requiring a comprehensive and systematic approach to ensure its authority, foresight, and operability [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Principles and Guidelines - The planning process must focus on high-quality development, aiming for more efficient, equitable, sustainable, and secure growth [2]. - A holistic view is essential, balancing domestic and international contexts while recognizing both advantages and challenges [2]. - The plan should prioritize people's livelihoods, addressing urgent issues in employment, education, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [2]. Group 2: Key Strategic Tasks and Development Directions - Emphasis on technological innovation and building a modern industrial system, with a focus on self-reliance in technology and addressing critical areas like chips and industrial software [3]. - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption while encouraging private investment and removing industry barriers [3]. - The plan aims for comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up, enhancing the market economy and aligning with international trade standards [3]. - A commitment to green transformation and safety, integrating environmental sustainability with national security across all planning processes [3]. Group 3: Implementation Measures and Pathways - Innovative planning approaches are necessary, focusing on practical development platforms and major projects in high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [4]. - Engaging the public in the planning process is crucial, ensuring that the voices of the people are heard and considered [4]. - Coordination among various regions and departments is vital to create a unified planning system that avoids competition and promotes complementary functions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's plan to relax the ban on fuel vehicles has faced opposition from Stellantis, which argues that the revised policy lacks a clear growth roadmap for the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Stellantis' Position - Stellantis CEO, Carlos Tavares, criticized the EU's proposal, stating it does not provide necessary measures for the automotive industry to return to growth [1] - Tavares emphasized that without growth, it is difficult to consider additional investments, which are crucial for building a resilient supply chain vital for European employment and prosperity [1] Group 2: EU's Proposal Details - The EU Commission proposed to adjust the 2035 "ban on fuel vehicles" by changing the new car "zero emissions" target to a "90% reduction" from 2021 levels, allowing a 10% reduction gap to be compensated through low-carbon steel and sustainable fuels [1] - The proposal allows manufacturers to continue emitting 10% of 2021 levels and to sell some fuel and hybrid vehicles, but concerns have been raised about the feasibility and cost of these measures for automakers [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - The response from the European automotive industry is divided, with Renault welcoming the proposal while the German automotive industry association described it as "disastrous" due to excessive implementation barriers [2] - EU officials maintain that the new emissions offset mechanism preserves the ambition of the original 2035 ban, asserting that the automotive industry is not questioning its climate goals [2] - German Finance Minister Lars Kleinbai warned manufacturers against relying on internal combustion engines, urging a faster transition to electric vehicles as the future of mobility [2]