Economic Outlook - The OECD has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the US to 1.6% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, with global economic growth expected to decline to 2.9% and inflation potentially reaching 3.2% [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that job vacancies reached 7.391 million in April, exceeding expectations, indicating healthy demand for labor [2] - The Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% year-on-year in May, which is below market expectations, raising the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] Market Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51% to 42,519.64 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% to 5,970.37 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.81% to 19,398.96 points [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.60% to $3,376.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.05% to $34.68 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 1.31% to $63.34 per barrel and Brent oil up by 1.47% to $65.58 per barrel [5] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 99.28, while the euro and British pound both depreciated against the dollar [6] - The yields on US Treasury bonds rose, with the 2-year yield up by 1.45 basis points to 3.945%, the 5-year yield up by 1.91 basis points to 4.021%, and the 10-year yield up by 1.38 basis points to 4.454% [5]

美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外增加至739.1万人，预期会从修正之后的720万个下降至710万人。美国4月 份职位空缺数量意外增加，且涨幅较大，招聘活动也出现回暖，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对劳动 力的需求依然强劲。职位空缺数量的增加主要由私营部门行业推动，例如专业和商业服务以及医疗保健 和社会援助。尽管州和地方教育导致政府部门职位空缺总体减少，但联邦政府部门的职位空缺有所增 加。职位空缺数量的增加，加上稳定的招聘和低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：就业市场整体表现健康，但也出现了一些疲软迹象。 ...

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Core Insights - Michael Page's report on talent trends in mainland China highlights five key areas: compensation, flexibility, technology, culture, and values, providing strategic pathways for employers to navigate talent competition [1][2][4] Employment Market Overview - The Chinese job market shows resilience, with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security reporting 12.56 million new urban jobs in 2024, surpassing the target of over 12 million [1] - The proportion of active job seekers has increased by 5% compared to last year, indicating a potential end to the period of talent mobility stagnation [1] Recruitment Challenges - Only 20% of employers faced recruitment difficulties in the past year, and 14% encountered talent retention challenges, which is lower than global and regional levels [2] - By 2025, skill matching has become the primary challenge in recruitment, surpassing cultural fit, as candidates' expectations for compensation and benefits continue to rise [2] Employee Expectations - Salary remains the top reason for talent turnover, followed by limited career development opportunities, with training opportunities now viewed as the third most important factor by employees [4] - There is a growing discrepancy between employer perceptions and employee expectations regarding talent development, with employers underestimating the importance of training [4][5] Factors Influencing Job Attraction - The top factors attracting job seekers include incentives and rewards, higher salaries, and clear career development paths, while employers prioritize different aspects [6] - 57% of employees in mainland China frequently use generative AI tools, surpassing global and Asia-Pacific averages, with 86% acknowledging efficiency improvements [6] AI and Workplace Dynamics - Employees express a desire for clearer guidance on generative AI, with only 27% feeling adequately supported by employers, and 42% concerned about job security due to AI [7] - The report also notes a workplace culture dominated by office-first policies, high leadership credibility, and insufficient workplace inclusivity [7]

智通财经5月29日电，根据美联储周三公布的会议纪要，决策者普遍认为经济不确定性支持他们在利率 调整方面保持耐心。官员指出，由于关税政策的潜在影响，自3月上次会议以来，通胀与失业上升风险 双双加剧，可能使美联储在"稳定物价"和"实现最大就业"这两个政策目标之间陷入两难抉择。会议纪要 显示，"考虑到经济增长和就业市场依然稳健，加之当前货币政策处于适度紧缩状态，与会者一致认为 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)处于有利位置，可等待通胀与经济前景更明朗后再采取行动。"会议纪要还 显示，美联储研究人员下调2025年与2026年经济增长预期，以反映当前已宣布的贸易政策。他们还预 测，就业市场将出现"明显疲软"，失业率料在今年升破所谓的"自然失业率"后，持续保持高位直到2027 年末。与此同时，关税将显著推高2024年通胀水平。 会议纪要强调美联储将保持耐心 几乎所有委员担心通胀比预期顽固 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, up by 0.29%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8280.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.49% [1] - International precious metal prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3332.10 USD per ounce, down by 0.76%, and COMEX silver at 33.57 USD per ounce, down by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3, while the services PMI initial value also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 94.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

金十数据5月22日讯，美国初请失业金降至四周低点，进一步证明，面对与贸易政策相关的不确定性日 益增加，就业市场仍保持健康。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周初请失业金人数减 少2,000人，至22.7万人，与预期基本一致。初请失业金人数表明，尽管对关税的担忧加剧，以及特朗普 政府缩减联邦政府的行动带来的连锁反应，但企业对员工配备水平相对满意。尽管特朗普政府在部分关 税问题上做出了让步，但美联储穆萨勒姆仍认为，贸易政策可能会给就业市场带来压力。他表示："总 的来说，关税可能会抑制经济活动，导致劳动力市场进一步疲软。"包括耐克和亚马逊在内的多家大公 司最近都表示正在裁员。失去联邦政府资助的学校和企业也宣布裁员，其中包括哥伦比亚大学。 美国初请数据降至四周以来最低水平 ...

黄金开盘受到阻力压制，以及隔夜尾盘的震荡回撤之力，先行表现走弱； 另外，本周数据较少，影响有限，走势将继续依托关税贸易及地缘局势方向的指引进行波动。其在两者 不确和变化无常的情况下，金价将维持震荡走盘并偏走强，反之如表现缓和乐观，金价将回落再探上升 趋势线支撑位置。 日图；金价在如期触及上升趋势线支撑和60日均线支撑位置展开反弹，虽然未能进一步延续动力走强攀 升，但连续收取的触底形态，则暗示后市仍有进一步向上突破阻力的预期，那么后市在不跌破60日及上 升趋势线支撑前，仍将继续等待打破近日调整行情反弹走强。 分析；日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储穆萨莱姆就 经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。根据之前表达的，通胀上行与就业市场走弱风险并存，货币政策需保持 警惕的不确定前景观点来看，预计也仍对金价产生一定的利好。 另外，美元指数日图开盘，也延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，对其产生压力，整体上，走势维 持近期的震荡上行趋势发展，目前未能跌破支撑，而仍有继续走强触及200日均线阻力目标的预期，而 会对金价造成压力，使其维持震荡走盘。 但由于周图，上周冲高回落，有暗示反弹触顶 ...

金十整理：澳洲联储将重启降息大门，如何指引利率和置评关税是关键 1. 澳新银行：预计澳洲联储将降息25个基点，特朗普部分已宣布的关税措施将会取消，但最大的问题 是，这实际上将如何影响消费者信心以及企业的感受，商业环境疲软支持澳洲联储降息。 6. Moomoo Australia市场策略师：尽管通胀已回到澳洲联储认为必要时可以降息的水平，但就业市场的 强劲以及围绕关税和贸易的不确定性，使澳洲联储有充分理由抵制下调现金利率的压力。 7. IG Markets分析师Tony Sycamore：就业市场具有弹性，但随着通胀回到澳洲联储的目标区间，再加上 关税仍居高不下给全球经济增长带来下行风险，澳洲联储仍有望降息。 8. 其他观点：澳洲联储主席布洛克可能会指出，通胀指标已回到目标水平，但鉴于全球经济的不确定性 程度，以及就业市场活跃和工资的稳健增长，他不太可能表示将进行一系列降息。 3. 荷兰国际银行：预计澳洲联储将降息25个基点，我们认为，澳洲联储在政策前瞻指引方面将保持相当 程度的谨慎。但其整体基调应会更偏鸽派，此次降息后，2025年还将有两次降息。 4. 昆士兰投资公司：预计澳洲联储将降息25个基点，且今年将再 ...