Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 6 月 22 日 如何看近期转债信用面变动 ➢ 如何看近期转债信用面变动 近期进入转债评级调整的密集披露期，若转债评级被下调个券卖压或增强；但评级调整 期结束后，未被评级下调的弱资质转债，若25年信用出现一定的优化，那么债底的修复 或支撑转债价格上升；我们认为转债6月-7月信用挖掘策略具有较强的性价比，投资者 一方面需要跟踪转债评级下调的可能，另一方面跟踪近期个券财务情况边际变化，预测 个券25年信用的变动方向。我们认为转债评级主要评估24年的财务变动和信用情况，通 过定量和定性的分析得到最新的评级结果，但是转债信用挖掘的预期差在于个券25年及 未来信用情况的定价，这方面评级结果解释力度或相对有限。 我们构建了转债信用评分模型，跟踪转债25年Q1的信用情况变动，观察哪些转债在财务 指标和信用资质上有边际优化，通过个券的信用变动分析中观行业层面的信用变动。转 债信用评分模型与转债信用评级互为补充，为投资者分析转债近期信用变动情况和构建 信用挖掘策略提供参考。 信用评分共包含6个维度：规模水平、营运能力、盈利能力、景气度、杠 ...

2024年9月AH市场经历令人瞩目的反弹后，外资流入中国市场的资金规模迅速提升，2025年DeepSeek再 次点燃中国资产重估行情，进一步整固外资流入态势。从被动投资角度看，美国上市的主要中国ETF也 在近期录得明显流入。 3、特朗普2.0时代"百日新政"后的新变量。回顾"百日新政"，将特朗普的百日执政成果与其上任前宣称 的执政目标进行对比，从总体来看，目前特朗普对于其竞选前的承诺兑现度仍偏低。随着特朗普执政节 奏的推进，关税的落地结果和减税政策的推进成为市场新一轮的关注焦点。展望后续，我们认为围绕两 大核心问题（关税反复性+减支能力有限）的政策博弈仍然激烈，市场波动率或进一步放大。 （一）重磅消息 据央视新闻报道，6月20日上午，中国人民银行与香港金融管理局联合举办内地与香港快速支付系统互 联互通启动仪式。跨境支付通是中央政府支持香港发展和便利民生、推动内地与香港合作的又一项重要 举措，通过内地网上支付跨行清算系统与香港快速支付系统"转数快"直接连接，在遵守两地法律法规的 前提下，支持参与机构为两地居民提供高效、便捷、安全的跨境支付服务。跨境支付通于2025年6月22 日上线运行。 （二）券商最新研判 天 ...

Company Overview - The company, Sensata Technologies, is a global leader in automotive exterior and body structural components, operating in 14 countries with 77 factories and 4 product lines (plastic parts, aluminum parts, metal trims, battery boxes) [1] - It serves over 70 automotive brands, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Tesla, and has undergone three development phases: initial nurturing, lightweight transformation and globalization, and innovative development [1] - In 2020, the company restructured into four major business units and has become one of the largest suppliers of battery boxes and body structural components globally [1] Operational Turning Point - Capital expenditure is slowing down, indicating a clear trend of profit recovery [2] - The traditional main business has solidified its technical and customer advantages [3] - The metal trim segment is projected to generate revenue of 5.49 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.8% [3] New Business Development - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Zhiyuan Robotics, focusing on smart exteriors, electronic skin, integrated joint assemblies, and wireless charging, which may create new revenue growth opportunities [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach 27.1 billion yuan in 2025, 32.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.0 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected at 2.72 billion yuan, 3.19 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan respectively [2] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is expected to drop to 8% in 2024, the lowest in a decade, leading to positive free cash flow of 778 million yuan [3] - Gross margin is forecasted to rise to 28.94% in 2024, with net margin at 10.26% and ROE at 11.97%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization and cost control [3] Business Structure Optimization - Battery box revenue is projected at 5.34 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 23.1% of total revenue, while traditional businesses (metal trims, plastics, aluminum) will maintain a combined revenue share of 70.3% [3] - The plastic segment is expected to generate 5.87 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.1%, expanding into smart exterior integrated products [3] - The aluminum segment is projected to achieve revenue of 4.92 billion yuan with a gross margin of 33.3%, recognized by major clients like BMW and Tesla [3] Key Growth Drivers - The battery box business is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in the European market, with projected revenue of 5.338 billion yuan in 2024, driven by EU carbon emission policies [3] - The company has a competitive advantage in technology with its extrusion molding solution, which offers better airtightness and lower iteration costs compared to integrated die-casting [3] - Domestic market share is expected to rise to 15%-19% in 2023, positioning the company in the first tier, with localized operations reducing costs and fostering deep collaborations with clients like BMW and Daimler [3] - The gross margin for battery boxes is anticipated to improve to 21.43% in 2024, as capacity utilization increases, further enhancing profitability [3]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones up by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.29% and 0.09% respectively [1] - Bitcoin-related stocks saw gains, with Circle rising over 12% and Coinbase increasing by more than 3% [1] - Chinese concept stocks experienced declines, with Huya dropping over 7% and other companies like Bilibili, JD.com, Douyu, Li Auto, and Xpeng falling by more than 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Developments - The largest "Triple Witching" event in history is set to occur, with potential implications for the US stock market, as options worth up to $6.5 trillion are set to expire [2] - President Trump has called for a 250 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell for delaying action that he claims is costing the US billions [3] Group 3: Corporate News - The European Investment Bank is expected to announce a funding plan of up to €70 billion (approximately $75 billion) to support technology companies in areas such as supercomputing, AI, and robotics over the next three years [4] - The European Court's chief legal advisor supports a previous antitrust ruling against Google, recommending a fine of €4.12 billion (approximately ¥34.1 billion) [5] - Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the broader market, with its Class A shares dropping over 10% since May 3, contrasting sharply with the strong rebound of the S&P 500 [6] - Tesla has initiated a significant project in Shanghai, with a total investment of ¥4 billion for its first grid-side energy storage project in mainland China [7]

Core Viewpoint - Infineon Technologies predicts significant growth in its AI-related business, expecting revenues to reach €600 million in FY2025 and €1 billion in FY2026, reflecting the semiconductor market's development trends [1] Group 1: AI and Robotics Market - Infineon is a leader in automotive chips, power semiconductors, and third-generation semiconductors, with a global market share of 13.5% in automotive electronics and 17.7% in power discrete devices [2] - The company plans to increase investments in AI and robotics markets, leveraging its power products to address the energy demands of AI applications [2] - Infineon's power solutions, integrating silicon, silicon carbide, and gallium nitride technologies, aim to enhance energy efficiency to over 97.5%, significantly reducing carbon emissions in data centers [3] Group 2: Localization Strategy - Infineon emphasizes a "localization in China" strategy, responding to the changing geopolitical landscape and the need for local supply chains in the semiconductor industry [4] - The company aims to expand local production of MCUs and MOSFETs, enhancing collaboration with local foundries and manufacturing partners [4] - Infineon recognizes the rapid development of the domestic semiconductor industry as an opportunity, particularly in AI and automation sectors, and plans to support industry growth through its ecosystem [5]

Market Overview - The global semiconductor market size in 2024 is projected to be $626.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [2] - The recovery trend in the semiconductor industry is expected to continue into 2025, driven by demand from emerging fields such as AI computing, robotics, and AIoT [2] Company Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the company's memory products reached ¥20.685 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 134.32% [4] - The company has over 100 authorized product lines, representing 12 of the top 20 domestic semiconductor brands and 9 of the top 20 global semiconductor brands [5] Innovation and Services - The company focuses on application innovation and ecosystem services, enhancing capabilities in supply chain services and industrial data services [3] - The "Firefly Workshop" initiative provides technical support and application innovation solutions, targeting key industries and product lines [6] Client Base and Market Segments - Major clients are concentrated in sectors such as consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, automotive electronics, and network communication [7] - The company has accumulated over 5,000 high-quality clients across various fields, demonstrating strong risk resistance [8] Competitive Advantages - The company integrates international and domestic high-quality resources, forming a robust core authorization resource that meets diverse industry needs [8] - A three-tier warehouse system with a total storage area of 72,000 square meters supports comprehensive supply chain services, enhancing customer experience [9]

港股公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 敏实集团（00425） 证券研究报告 产能周期视角下经营拐点向上，机器人打开第二增长极 公司概况：全球化汽车零部件龙头，业务多元布局 敏实集团是全球领先的汽车外饰件及车身结构件供应商，业务覆盖全球 14 个国家，拥有 77 家工厂及 4 大产品线（塑件、铝件、金属饰条、电池盒）， 客户包括宝马、奔驰、特斯拉等 70 余个汽车品牌。公司历经三大发展阶段： 初创培育期（金属饰条等传统业务起步）、轻量化转型与全球化布局期（铝 件业务拓展）、创新发展期（电池盒、智能外饰等新兴业务突破），2020 年 重组为四大业务单元，目前已成为全球最大的电池盒和车身结构件供应商 之一。 经营拐点：资本开支放缓，盈利修复态势明确 核心拐点体现在： 传统主业：技术与客户优势巩固基本盘 重点增量：电池盒业务高增长动能明确 新业务布局：机器人领域拓展第二增长曲线 公司与智元机器人达成战略合作，聚焦智能外饰与电子皮肤、一体化关节 总成、无线充电等领域，产品覆盖工业制造、仓储物流等场景，依托汽车 零部件制造经验，推动柔性智造解决方案，有望形成新的收入增长点。 盈利预测与投资建议 预 计 2025-2027 年公 ...

Group 1 - President Xi Jinping emphasized the urgency of a ceasefire in the Middle East, stating that the use of force is not the correct way to resolve international disputes [1] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is expected to see a significant production cut in Q3, with operating rates projected to decrease by 10%-15% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced it will expedite the review of export license applications related to rare earths, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Index will officially launch the China Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor Index on June 20, 2025, which will include 50 companies from the STAR Market and ChiNext [2] - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the importance of China-EU economic and trade relations, emphasizing ongoing communication and cooperation [2] Group 3 - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 27.673 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [3] - Zhongqi New Materials reported that Starry Sky Technology has become its controlling shareholder [3] - Lianchuang Optoelectronics noted strong demand for drone countermeasure equipment in the Middle East [3] Group 4 - Fuhuang Steel Structure announced the termination of its plan to issue shares and pay cash for asset purchases [4] - Shengnuo Bio expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, projecting a year-on-year growth of 254%-332% [4] Group 5 - Zhongyan Chemical plans to agree to a capital reduction for Zhongyan Alkali Industry, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - Kanda New Materials intends to acquire at least 51% of Zhongke Huamei's shares to expand into the semiconductor integrated circuit field [6] Group 6 - Times Publishing clarified that it does not engage in stablecoin business and has a minimal indirect stake in JD Technology [8] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls confirmed the final price for its H-share issuance at 22.53 HKD per share [9] Group 7 - Taiji Co. announced that Changjiang Industrial Group will become its indirect controlling shareholder, with stock resuming trading on June 20, 2025 [10] - Guosen Securities received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhe Securities [10] Group 8 - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical completed the first participant enrollment for its Phase III clinical trial of the innovative drug RAY1225 for obesity [11] - Yuncong Technology stated that its multi-modal AI technology for live detection can be applied to stablecoin wallet scenarios [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese robotics industry is in a historical opportunity period, driven by recovering domestic and international demand, continuous policy support, and improving product performance [2] - The Robot ETF (562500) is the only robotics-themed ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 100 billion, covering various segments such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and service robots, allowing investors to easily access the entire robotics supply chain [2] - As of the latest data, the Robot ETF has a net inflow of 987 million yuan, marking four consecutive days of inflows, with a total of 1.55 billion yuan in the past four trading days, leading among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The Robot ETF's latest scale is 130.69 billion yuan, with a year-to-date growth of 89.32 billion yuan, indicating significant growth and leading among comparable funds [1] - The latest share count for the Robot ETF is 16.027 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 10.704 billion shares, also showing significant growth and leading among comparable funds [1] - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held from August 8 to 12 in Beijing, focusing on making robots smarter and more intelligent, with various competitions taking place concurrently [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba has re-emerged as a Limited Partner (LP) in the investment landscape, marking a significant shift after a period of reduced activity among internet giants [2][4] - The establishment of a new fund, "无限启航海河（天津）创业投资合伙企业," with an investment of approximately 140 million RMB, indicates Alibaba's renewed commitment to venture capital [2][4] - This move is seen as part of Alibaba's strategic adjustment, focusing on core business areas after divesting non-core assets and raising over 20 billion RMB [4] Investment Landscape - The overall LP investment in private equity funds in China has seen a decline, with a total subscription scale of approximately 1.48 trillion RMB in 2024, down 19.57% year-on-year [5][6] - Despite the challenges in fundraising, there is a resurgence of interest from industry LPs, with many looking to invest in emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy [6][7] - Recent data shows that industry LPs are increasingly returning to the market, with significant participation from companies like Ningde Times and Kanglong Chemical [6][7] Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the venture capital market is improving, with industry leaders expressing optimism about 2025 being a new starting point for investment in future industries [7][8] - The return of major LPs like Alibaba is viewed as a positive signal for the venture capital ecosystem, potentially leading to increased investment activity [8]