我们尚未看到关税对通胀产生重大冲击。 可能最早在7月会议上就降息。 重要的是要忽略关税对通胀的影响。 美联储理事Waller：我认为我们无需再等待太久就可以降息。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行"调整 为"有所回落但维持高位"。虽然近期就业数据有所降温，通胀整体偏弱， 不确定性也有所回落，但鲍威尔强调联储决策是前瞻性的（forward looking），关税预计将在夏季更明显向通胀传导，因而继续按兵不动，观察 后续经济数据后再决定是否降息。本次会议整体符合预期，市场变动不大。 截至北京时间凌晨 4:00，相较于会前，市场预期 2025 年、2026 年累计降 息幅度分别上升 3bp、下降 1bp 至 48bp、66bp；2 年期美债收益率基本持 平于 3.93%，10 年期美债收益率上行 2bp 至 4.38%；美元指数上涨 0.3% 至 99；标普 500 下跌 0.1%；黄金下跌 0 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts in June, aligning with market expectations[1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, indicating a potential rise in stagflation risk[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was raised to 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation rate expectation was increased to 3.1%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The number of Federal Reserve members predicting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7, indicating growing internal disagreement on rate cuts[3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a 50 basis point cut forecast for this year, with potential adjustments in future meetings[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become evident in the inflation data from July-August[3] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - Following the June talks, the U.S. plans to maintain an average tariff of 55% on Chinese goods, while China will ease rare earth export controls[4] - There is uncertainty regarding the permanence of these trade commitments, as no clear trade agreement has been established[4] - The potential for a comprehensive implementation of personalized tariffs poses a downside risk to the U.S. economy[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's statement indicates that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, although it remains relatively high [4]. - The committee is focused on its dual mandate of employment and price stability, noting that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, despite the unemployment rate stabilizing at low levels [6][8]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has committed to maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% and will carefully assess upcoming data and changes in the economic outlook before making further adjustments [22][24]. - The FOMC is also continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to support maximum employment and return inflation to the 2% target [24]. Economic Projections - The FOMC's economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, compared to previous projections [25]. - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [26]. - Inflation projections have been raised, with PCE inflation expected to be 3.0% in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, all above the Fed's 2% target [26]. Interest Rate Forecasts - The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential 50 basis points cut from current levels [28]. - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some expecting at least two cuts this year, while others anticipate no changes [31]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for more information regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, noting that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate [32][34]. - Powell highlighted that the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, particularly in categories like personal computers and audiovisual equipment [34].

在特朗普频繁向美联储施压降息之际，美国最新经济数据显示，通胀压力比预期缓和，而劳动力市场却 可能正在恶化。华尔街日报资深央行记者认为，这些因素共同增强了美联储降息的理由。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，周四，特朗普再次加大对美联储的施压力度，其措辞之激烈前所未见。他直接 称鲍威尔为"笨蛋"，并抛出了一个的数字：降息两个百分点每年可为美国节省6000亿美元利息支出。 同一天，华尔街日报资深央行记者Greg Ip在最新文章中提出，尽管特朗普政府实施的关税政策给美联 储带来了两难局面，但最新经济数据显示，关税对通胀影响并未如预期般显著，劳动力市场却出现裂 痕，这意味着美联储面临的风险天平将发生微妙但关键的转向——从担忧通胀抬头，转向关注经济需求 疲软。 Ip认为，尽管美联储下周会议不必立即行动，但政策制定者需要在前瞻指引和表态中承认风险正在转 移。目前利率水平仍比美联储官员认为的"中性"水平高出0.5-1.5个百分点，这种限制性立场只有在通胀 是唯一担忧时才合理。 关税并未推高通胀 Ip在文章中称，最新数据显示了一个令人困惑的现象：5月份美国财政部征收的关税收入比2月份增加约 150亿美元，相当于商品消费总支出的3%，但消 ...

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation rate unexpectedly remained below market expectations in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, matching forecasts, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [3] - Core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 2.9%, and a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.3% [3] - Economists and Federal Reserve officials are divided on when the impact of tariffs on inflation will fully materialize, with Goldman Sachs predicting a temporary rise in prices due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in internal debates regarding the inflation outlook, with some officials arguing that the impact of tariffs on prices may be more persistent [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating two rate cuts this year, particularly in September [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes adds pressure to the economic outlook, with expectations of more significant price increases in June and July [6]

新华财经纽约6月6日电（记者刘亚南）美国最新非农就业数据提振了市场信心，纽约股市三大股指6日 显著高开，盘中整体维持窄幅盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨，标普500指数再次回到今年2 月6000点以上水平。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨443.13点，收于42762.87点，涨幅为1.05%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨61.06点，收于6000.36点，涨幅为1.03%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨231.50点， 收于19529.95点，涨幅为1.20%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块全线上涨。能源板块和通信服务板块分别以1.98%和1.88%涨幅领 涨，必需消费品板块涨幅最小，为0.18%。 美国劳工部6日早间公布的数据显示，今年5月美国失业率维持在4.2%不变，非农业部门新增就业岗位 为13.9万，低于前一个月向下修订后的14.7万，但高于市场共识预计的12.9万。 由于市场担忧的就业市场显著疲软尚未出现，最新就业数据提振市场人气，投资者选择继续买入。 Ameriprise金融公司首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林贝内（Anthony Saglimbene）表示，当日的非农就业 数 ...

金十数据6月3日讯，在判断关税对通胀的影响时，标准的经济模型是直截了当的：这应该是一次性的价 格上涨。但美联储博斯蒂克周二表示，特朗普政府关税的不确定性和快速变化的政策使得情况比教科书 所暗示的更加复杂，也不那么明确。"教科书上关于关税的概念是……关税只征收一次，每个人都知道 它是什么。""这不是我们过去几个月所处的环境，所以有一个问题是，人们将如何反应——接受一项持 续很长时间的关税政策变化。"博斯蒂克说，他主要担心的是，这种长期的、渐进式的关税政策转变会 如何影响商业和消费者的行为。如果企业和家庭开始预期持续的关税调整，可能会导致更持久的通胀压 力。 博斯蒂克回应：为什么美联储不能假设关税引起的通胀是一次性影响？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses uncertainty regarding the assertion that tariffs will have only a temporary impact on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Goolsbee does not confidently assert that tariffs will only have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a need for further analysis [1]