智通财经APP获悉，尽管部分官员表示支持7月就降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔周二早些时候在国会作证 时强调，美联储不急于降息，他和同僚们正在观察经济对包括关税在内的各项新政策的反应。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里指出，尽管近期通胀数据"相当乐观"，但美联储在调整政策前需 要更清楚地了解关税对价格的影响。 美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，他预计关税将推高通胀，并支持对利率调整采取观望态度。 巴尔在为堪萨斯城联储在奥马哈举办的活动准备的讲话稿中指出，当前美国经济基础稳固，失业率处于 低位，通胀已回落至美联储2%的目标附近。 他表示，"但展望未来，我预计通胀将因关税而上升，""短期通胀预期走高、供应链调整以及第二轮效 应可能导致通胀持续高企。" 美国总统特朗普已对数十个美国贸易伙伴加征新关税，但具体税率已多次调整。其政府正在谈判的贸易 协议可能带来更多变化。 巴尔认为，这些关税可能导致经济放缓和失业率上升，但他同时强调政策及其影响存在较大不确定 性。"当前的货币政策立场使我们能够耐心观察经济形势发展，"他补充道。 "过去两三个月我们获得的通胀数据相当积极，表明我此前描述的通胀回落路径正在实现，"卡什卡里周 二在威斯康星 ...

美联储卡什卡利：美联储目前处于观望状态，以期获得关税对通胀影响的更多明确性。 ...

我们尚未看到关税对通胀产生重大冲击。 可能最早在7月会议上就降息。 重要的是要忽略关税对通胀的影响。 美联储理事Waller：我认为我们无需再等待太久就可以降息。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行"调整 为"有所回落但维持高位"。虽然近期就业数据有所降温，通胀整体偏弱， 不确定性也有所回落，但鲍威尔强调联储决策是前瞻性的（forward looking），关税预计将在夏季更明显向通胀传导，因而继续按兵不动，观察 后续经济数据后再决定是否降息。本次会议整体符合预期，市场变动不大。 截至北京时间凌晨 4:00，相较于会前，市场预期 2025 年、2026 年累计降 息幅度分别上升 3bp、下降 1bp 至 48bp、66bp；2 年期美债收益率基本持 平于 3.93%，10 年期美债收益率上行 2bp 至 4.38%；美元指数上涨 0.3% 至 99；标普 500 下跌 0.1%；黄金下跌 0 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts in June, aligning with market expectations[1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, indicating a potential rise in stagflation risk[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was raised to 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation rate expectation was increased to 3.1%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The number of Federal Reserve members predicting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7, indicating growing internal disagreement on rate cuts[3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a 50 basis point cut forecast for this year, with potential adjustments in future meetings[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become evident in the inflation data from July-August[3] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - Following the June talks, the U.S. plans to maintain an average tariff of 55% on Chinese goods, while China will ease rare earth export controls[4] - There is uncertainty regarding the permanence of these trade commitments, as no clear trade agreement has been established[4] - The potential for a comprehensive implementation of personalized tariffs poses a downside risk to the U.S. economy[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's statement indicates that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, although it remains relatively high [4]. - The committee is focused on its dual mandate of employment and price stability, noting that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, despite the unemployment rate stabilizing at low levels [6][8]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has committed to maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% and will carefully assess upcoming data and changes in the economic outlook before making further adjustments [22][24]. - The FOMC is also continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to support maximum employment and return inflation to the 2% target [24]. Economic Projections - The FOMC's economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, compared to previous projections [25]. - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [26]. - Inflation projections have been raised, with PCE inflation expected to be 3.0% in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, all above the Fed's 2% target [26]. Interest Rate Forecasts - The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential 50 basis points cut from current levels [28]. - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some expecting at least two cuts this year, while others anticipate no changes [31]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for more information regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, noting that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate [32][34]. - Powell highlighted that the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, particularly in categories like personal computers and audiovisual equipment [34].

Core Viewpoint - The latest economic data indicates that inflation pressures are easing more than expected, while the labor market may be deteriorating, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent data shows that tariff revenues increased by approximately $15 billion from February to May, equating to 3% of total consumer spending, yet consumer prices did not rise correspondingly [2] - Prices for targeted tariff goods, such as clothing and new cars, actually decreased in May, raising questions about who is absorbing the tariff costs [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, reached a four-year low of 2.8%, with the personal consumption expenditure price index close to its lowest level since the pandemic [3] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.25 percentage points since January, potentially reaching 4.6% by the fourth quarter [4][5] - New unemployment insurance claims have surged in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in layoffs, despite May's job growth appearing healthy with 139,000 new positions [5] - The current interest rates remain 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points above what the Federal Reserve considers "neutral," suggesting that the tightening stance may no longer be justified given the shifting economic landscape [5]

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation rate unexpectedly remained below market expectations in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, matching forecasts, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [3] - Core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 2.9%, and a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.3% [3] - Economists and Federal Reserve officials are divided on when the impact of tariffs on inflation will fully materialize, with Goldman Sachs predicting a temporary rise in prices due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in internal debates regarding the inflation outlook, with some officials arguing that the impact of tariffs on prices may be more persistent [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating two rate cuts this year, particularly in September [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes adds pressure to the economic outlook, with expectations of more significant price increases in June and July [6]

新华财经纽约6月6日电（记者刘亚南）美国最新非农就业数据提振了市场信心，纽约股市三大股指6日 显著高开，盘中整体维持窄幅盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨，标普500指数再次回到今年2 月6000点以上水平。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨443.13点，收于42762.87点，涨幅为1.05%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨61.06点，收于6000.36点，涨幅为1.03%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨231.50点， 收于19529.95点，涨幅为1.20%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块全线上涨。能源板块和通信服务板块分别以1.98%和1.88%涨幅领 涨，必需消费品板块涨幅最小，为0.18%。 美国劳工部6日早间公布的数据显示，今年5月美国失业率维持在4.2%不变，非农业部门新增就业岗位 为13.9万，低于前一个月向下修订后的14.7万，但高于市场共识预计的12.9万。 由于市场担忧的就业市场显著疲软尚未出现，最新就业数据提振市场人气，投资者选择继续买入。 Ameriprise金融公司首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林贝内（Anthony Saglimbene）表示，当日的非农就业 数 ...