Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's economy and the AI industry, highlighting the potential for a stable performance in the A-share market following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, driven by positive economic indicators and upcoming policy expectations related to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][8]. Economic and Policy Developments - During the holiday period, domestic travel data showed a stable increase, with a total of 1.77 billion trips made, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2]. - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery from August's 49.4% [3]. - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August, compared to a cumulative growth of 0.9% from January to August [3][18]. Policy and Industry Updates - The Central Political Bureau held a meeting on September 29 to discuss major issues related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a subsequent plenary session scheduled for October 20-23 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to support new consumption models and international consumption environment construction, targeting around 50 pilot cities [4]. - Several domestic AI companies announced new models and adaptations, indicating ongoing advancements in the AI sector [4][9]. Overseas Economic and Policy Context - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown, delaying the release of key economic data, including employment statistics [5]. - OpenAI announced collaborations with Samsung and SK Hynix, as well as a strategic partnership with AMD to deploy new AI chips starting in 2026 [6][14][15]. - A new round of tariffs in the U.S. took effect on October 1, affecting various imported goods, including a 100% tariff on all brand-name or patented drugs [7][16]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a stable performance post-holiday, supported by positive travel data and industrial profit recovery, alongside the anticipation of policy developments related to the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with potential for future upward trends contingent on new catalysts [8]. Industry Focus Areas - Key sectors to watch include AI computing and robotics, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [9]. - Other sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and non-ferrous metals are also highlighted for their potential due to improving demand and supply dynamics [9]. - Industries like engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and aquaculture are noted for their favorable cost-performance ratio despite limited price increases [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-10-09 股市⾛势积极，债市短期震荡 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性不及预期；3）增量政 策超预期；4）股市上涨超预期；5）货币不及预期。 股指期货：节后⾛势积极 股指期权：做空波动率策略可适当进场 国债期货：短期债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，节后走势积极。 假日期间，离岸香港市场先扬后 抑，整体收平为主，其中半导体、电气设备、涨价链领涨，映射至A股市 场，对于反内卷及双创风格有利。其中后半周恒指转弱，猜测与美元指数 走势有关，伴随日本新任首相确认，日元贬值推动美元表现，并压制港股 市场，而后续美元定价权预计回归至非农就业数据，弱美元的基准假设不 变，故不会对风险资产产生持续影响。展望节后走势，预计偏向积极，其 中逻辑如下，其一，十五五预期偏向正面，提供看涨期权，其二，大型科 技股持续跑赢市场，隐含机构资金积极布局态度，其三，节前休息资金有 望再度加仓。在内资机构主导的背景下，双创预计占优，中证1000、中证 2000表现次之。 股指期权方面，做空波动率策略可适当进场。回顾节前期权策略方 面，如有权益持仓 ...

以通信、电子为代表的科技股领涨市场 漫画：王建明 【深圳商报讯】（记者 陈燕青）A股三季度行情收官，节后市场进入四季度交易时段。回顾前三季度， 市场整体呈现震荡上涨态势，三大指数连涨5个月。进入三季度，大盘加速上行，沪指连破3600点、 3700点、3800点等整数关口。总体来看，沪指前三季度上涨15.84%，深成指上涨29.88%，创业板指和 科创50均上涨51.2%。 根据统计，从个股来看，前三季度4218只A股上涨，占比约八成。其中，涨幅翻倍的个股有483只。上 纬新材、*ST宇顺、天普股份位居涨幅榜前三名，涨幅分别为18.9倍、9.47倍、7.9倍；此外，近千只个 股逆势下跌，其中124只个股跌幅超过20%。 研报显示，据历史统计，四季度节奏上表现为10月至11月中旬上行，11月下旬至12月下旬震荡。四季度 赚钱效应最突出的时段是11月上旬，或由于三季报业绩"靴子"落地，市场正式进入业绩真空期。其次为 10月上旬和11月中旬。结构上，10月至11月中旬科技板块领涨，11月上旬至12月下旬消费板块领涨。 国庆长假后A股迎来四季度交易时段。最近15年数据显示，2010年至2024年的过去15年间，上证指数 ...

中期视角看，受到6月底至8月底市场成交较快上涨、涨幅较大之后资金获利了结影响，当前市场仍处于 8月底以来的震荡行情，后续趋势性行情可能需要新的催化因素，但下行风险相对有限，多个重要变化 共振使得前期市场资金热度较高，市场下行空间有限，同时10月即将召开的党的二十届四中全会有望审 议"十五五"规划建议，助力支撑市场预期。 编辑：林郑宏 新华财经上海10月9日电 中金公司研报分析认为，国庆假期期间港股表现和出行数据相对平稳，国内外 AI产业进展密集发布、国内工业企业利润增速回暖，节后"十五五"规划市场政策预期有望升温，A股有 望延续稳健表现。 转自：新华财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a steady performance post-holiday, supported by the recovery in industrial profits and the anticipation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy [1][6]. Domestic Economy and Policy - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 5, the total inter-regional passenger flow reached 1.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2]. - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, showing a slight recovery from August's 49.4% [2][14]. - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with cumulative profits from January to August growing by 0.9% compared to the previous year [2][16]. Policy and Industry - The Central Political Bureau held a meeting on September 29 to discuss major issues regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a subsequent meeting scheduled for October 20-23 [3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to support new consumption models and international consumption environment construction, targeting around 50 pilot cities [3]. Overseas Economy and Policy - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown starting October 1, leading to delays in economic data releases, including employment statistics [4]. - OpenAI announced collaborations with Samsung, SK Hynix, and AMD to enhance AI capabilities and infrastructure [4]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its steady performance post-holiday, with the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting expected to review the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may bolster market expectations [6]. - The AI computing and robotics sectors are highlighted as areas of focus, with potential for rotation among different segments [7]. Industry Configuration Recommendations - Emphasis on AI computing and robotics industries, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [7]. - Sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals are noted for their ongoing supply-demand improvements [7]. - Engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and aquaculture industries are identified as having good cost-performance ratios despite modest price increases [7].

人民财讯10月9日电，中金公司研报认为，假期前后国内外AI产业进展密集发布、国内工业企业利润增 速回暖；A股休市期间港股震荡微涨，假期出行数据平稳增长。叠加节后"十五五"规划政策预期有望升 温，研报认为节后A股有望延续稳健表现，"9.24"以来的震荡上行行情仍在延续。 ...

华泰证券指出，10月开始基本面和供给都进入对债有利的阶段，资金面维持平稳，降息降准、购债依然 有博弈空间。预计节后债市偏弱震荡，关注十五五规划、公募销售新规落地、或机构行为冲击带来超调 时的小幅反击机会，十年国债老券1.8%以上逢调整配置。品种上，短期建议继续保持5-7年及以下利率 债、中短端信用债持仓，规避超长债。坚持中期曲线小幅陡峭化判断。 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 中国大陆国庆节和中秋节假期接近尾声，假期前后国内外AI产业进展密集发布、国内工业企业利润增速回暖；A股休市期间港股震荡微涨，假期出行数据 平稳增长。叠加节后"十五五"规划政策预期有望升温， 我们认为节后A股有望延续稳健表现，924以来的震荡上行行情仍在延续， 具体来看： A股休市期间，港股震荡微涨，亚洲股市走高。 假期前的周一、周二A股市场较为活跃，两日内上证指数涨1.43%，偏大盘蓝筹的沪深300 涨1.99%，偏成 长风格的创业板指和科创50分别涨2.75%、3.06%；成交层面，日均成交额约2.19万亿元，交投保持相对活跃；行业层面，有色金属、电力设备、钢铁领 涨，银行、煤炭、通信表现较弱。10月2、3、6日港股开市，市场先上涨后有所回调，三日内恒生指数+0.38%，恒生科技指数+1.31%。海外市场，美国方 面，A股休市期间美股继续上行，10月1-6日标普500涨0.77%，纳斯达克涨1.24%；日本方面，自民党总裁选举中高市早苗当选，市场对日本央行加息预期 或边际放缓，日经225指数10月6日单日涨4.75%；韩国方面，OpenAI与三星和SK海力士达成合作，韩国KOSPI指 ...

市领导顾海东、唐晓东、查颖冬、周达清、施嘉泓、季晶、毛伟、刘博，市政府秘书长徐本等参加会议。 濮建明 摄 会上，市发展改革委汇报了市"十五五"规划基本思路，6家市直单位汇报了市级专项规划编制情况，市政府研 究室汇报了人口发展分析情况，与会人员做了深入交流探讨。 吴庆文指出，未来五年，是苏州加快转型升级、加速跨越提升的关键五年，要认清形势、把握机遇、找准坐 标，全面细致编制"十五五"规划。要坚持问题导向，全面复盘"十四五"时期的工作成效，总结经验，解决问题， 加强部门协同，确保规划和工作的紧密性、连续性。要做好调查研究，特别是未来五年人口结构的变化预测，确 保"十五五"时期各类公共资源配置更加合理、各项规划切实可行。要突出亮点，聚焦创新转型，充分发挥苏州优 势，在重大项目、重大平台、重大工程、重点区域和重大改革等方面加强支撑，强化先进制造业和现代服务业的 双轮驱动，以全球视野和开放包容的心态，不断提升苏州综合竞争力和可持续发展水平。要推动更多资源投资于 人，服务民生，注重绿色发展，进一步提高城市的安全、韧性和智慧建设水平。 昨天（10月8日），市政府召开市"十五五"规划编制情况专题会，市委副书记、市长吴庆文主持 ...

● 本报记者 胡雨 券商10月"金股"日前陆续出炉。数据显示，截至10月8日中国证券报记者发稿时，已有近200只标的入围 券商10月"金股"名单，兆易创新（603986）同时获得5家券商推荐，是同时期最受关注的标的。回顾券 商9月"金股"表现，华安证券（600909）金股指数、光大证券金股指数、国盛证券金股指数等6家券商金 股指数月涨幅均超过10%，排名靠前。 对于A股后市走势，券商人士研判，在经历9月以来的震荡整固后，市场新一轮上行动能已在蓄势，随 着10月三季报交易陆续展开、月末密集重磅会议提振政策预期，结构上可交易的线索也将更加丰富。具 体配置上，当下上市公司三季报业绩关注度或逐渐抬升，可锚定科技大类中前期滞涨的盈利上修股进行 高低切换。此外，有色金属、"反内卷"等热门行业、投资主题同样值得关注。 精智达、伟创电气2只标的9月涨幅均在70%以上，其分别入围了华安证券、华龙证券2家券商的9月"金 股"名单。9月合计有85只标的月涨幅超过10%，多只标的股价创出历史新高或阶段新高。 从收录的36只券商金股指数整体表现看，有32只在9月取得正收益，其中华安证券金股指数以15.12%的 月涨幅夺得第一，推荐的精 ...