交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-23） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | 震荡 | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | | 升温，现实需求疲弱。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最 | | | | | 直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口 | | | | | 的预期下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于 | | | | | 原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，短期因补库和宏观情 | | | | | 绪造成的反弹具备逢高介入空单的价值，突破前高紧止 | | | | 震荡 | 损。 | | | 煤焦 | | 煤焦：产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政 | | | | | 策的预期，煤焦仍有支撑。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度， | | | | | 最直接 ...

看到 AAVE 发起这提案之前莫名大跌，大户持续出货，恐怕是有风声把这一提案传出来 frontrun 并视为交给社区的行为了。不是喜欢去中心化吗？传统股票市场的大股东都是有一系列法律要求的规则和责任的，拿最直观的例子来说，二级市场套现的时候大股东有严格的锁定期和减持额度。权益与义务相匹配而持币者最大的问题是，只想享受上涨的权益，不承担持有的责任，都是 free riders。这和代币本身存在的问题是相对应的。代币的问题是，治理都是伪命题，缺乏价值捕获的通胀代币只提供炒作属性本身持币者只有退出权，并且大 “币东” 还能通过各种方式比如 OTC、衍生品套保等方式悄无声息地套现，但大部分持币者对协议增长没有助力，毕竟分红也分不到持币者，为什么要建设呢？ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a downward bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Stronger [9] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: Weakly oscillating [11] - PTA: Weakly oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features "ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories." In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel exports with licenses will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The coal and coke market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information from the Central Economic Work Conference. Steel export licensing will limit exports, shifting market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support coal and coke prices [2]. - The steel market is affected by export licensing, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. The real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent decline in prices in the Shahe area. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress [2]. - In the financial market, the previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support gold prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - The log market has seen a decrease in daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - The pulp market has a differentiated spot price. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - The oil market has high US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - The live pig market has a stable overall supply, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. - The rubber market has different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in oil prices. The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA is seasonally weakening. The long - term inventory pressure of MEG exists, and the polyester bottle - chip and polyester fiber markets are also under pressure [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons. Current molten iron production is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. Steel export licensing will limit exports, negatively impacting raw materials. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coal and coke: Affected by the lack of incremental policy information, the market shifted expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, year - end coal mine production cuts, and long - term anti - involution strategies support prices [2]. - Rolled steel: Export licensing affects exports, and expectations for next year's steel exports need to be lowered. Real estate new construction has fallen to 2005 levels, and domestic demand is weak. Prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Prices in the Shahe area have declined. Processing orders are sluggish, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by over 20% year - on - year. The demand outlook is dragged down by real estate completion, and the price trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, affected by supply and demand and cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to boost domestic demand, and the Central Financial Office emphasized expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year. The high - tech industry continues to grow, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was flat, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1.8 billion yuan. The bond market is in a short - term rebound trend [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support prices in the medium and long term, while the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, oscillating with an upward bias [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Daily port shipments and national daily out - warehouse volume have decreased. The volume of New Zealand's log shipments to China in November decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. Although the expected arrival volume this week has increased significantly, the supply pressure may gradually ease due to the seasonal decrease in shipments. The demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. After the digestion of positive factors, the price may return to an oscillating trend based on the supply - demand fundamentals [7]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable. Some production has resumed in Shandong, and supply pressure remains. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: High US soybean crushing levels, but the uncertainty of renewable energy blending obligations and weak exports have led to uncertain demand prospects. The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased significantly, and the inventory is high. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the oil price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. - Meals: A relatively loose global soybean ending inventory. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans is increasing. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, and the slaughter rate has increased slightly. The terminal demand growth is limited, and there is a game between supply and demand. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Different production situations in different regions. The demand side has a certain degree of recovery, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Polyester - PX: Market concerns about future supply surplus are obvious. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, and oil prices have fallen. The supply is high, and the price is affected by oil prices [11]. - PTA: The cost side is loosened due to the decline in oil prices. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [11]. - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. The price is expected to oscillate with upward pressure [11]. - PR: Affected by the decline in oil prices and general demand, the polyester bottle - chip market may continue to be weak [11]. - PF: Although the current price of polyester staple fiber is low and the enterprise inventory is low, the large decline in oil prices may lead to price oscillation in the near future [11].

Group 1 - The central bank has classified stablecoins as virtual currencies and emphasized that activities related to virtual currencies are illegal financial activities [1][98] - Stablecoins are designed to maintain price stability and are a type of cryptocurrency that utilizes blockchain technology [10][14] - The issuance of stablecoins typically involves backing them with fiat currency, such as the US dollar, to maintain a 1:1 exchange relationship [71][75] Group 2 - Stablecoins can enhance transaction efficiency by enabling peer-to-peer transactions without the need for banks or third-party platforms, but this efficiency comes at the cost of overall financial system security [62][64] - The reliance on stablecoins can create systemic risks, particularly if the issuing institutions do not maintain sufficient reserves to meet redemption demands, leading to liquidity issues [89][91] - The International Bank for Settlements has warned that stablecoins may not be a reliable form of currency without proper regulation, posing risks to financial stability and monetary sovereignty [95]

综合大众日报 智通财经 漫画：杨仕成 比特币的故事始于2008年，当时一个化名为中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的人或团体发布了一篇名为《比特币：一种点对点的电子现金系统》的论文。这 篇论文提出了一种基于区块链技术的数字货币系统，旨在允许用户之间直接进行交易，无需中介机构。2009年，比特币网络正式启动，中本聪挖掘了创世 区块，标志着比特币的诞生。 1 与当下大多数货币不同，比特币不依靠特定货币机构（如政府）发行，依靠的是特定算法计算产生，这个算法平台依据分布式构架的程序产生构造解。 5 2 比特币其实是基于区块链技术的加密数据。打个比方，比特币的发行机制就是解一个数学方程组，方程组的解对应着一个比特币的代码。获取比特币的过 程就相当于解方程的过程，这意味着所有人都有机会参与发行比特币。而这个方程组的解（比特币总量）的总量恒定为2100万个。 3 中央民族大学法学院教授、中国科技金融法律研究会副会长邓建鹏称，银行之间转账是由银行来记录，银行是中心。在比特币的网络中，没有一个特定的 中心，而比特币奖励机制刺激全球的矿工（即拥有特殊计算机芯片的人）记录他们的交易信息。换句话说，挖矿的过程就是用利己利人的 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the cryptocurrency industry is at a critical and dangerous juncture, characterized by developer attrition, declining audit demand, and a lack of support for genuinely useful applications, with attention being diverted to short-term speculative products [1][4] - Mhmarkets highlights that the vision of driving practical applications and welcoming the next billion users has been overshadowed by short-sighted profit-seeking behavior [4][6] Group 1: Developer and Investment Trends - Developers are reducing smart contract audits not out of willingness to take risks, but due to a lack of worthwhile new applications to build [4] - Many talented developers and founders are waiting for a healthier industry environment or have already left the space, unwilling to replicate existing financial applications or push forward long-term value projects without support [4] - Capital interest in practical applications is extremely low, with funding only available for projects that can quickly achieve massive returns, leaving capable teams stuck at the starting line [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - Investment is increasingly concentrated in short-term profit-driven assets such as meme coins, opaque DeFi structures, and high-leverage speculation, which shapes market discussions around ETF inflows and trading techniques rather than the real application value of blockchain [4][5] - The profit-driven orientation is amplified by industry "opinion leaders" who could promote the on-chain transformation of the global financial system but instead embrace a more controllable "new type of intermediary," reintroducing complexity and opacity into a market that should be transparent and decentralized [5] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The original intent of blockchain and cryptocurrency technology was to weaken monopolies and rebuild a fairer internet collaboration mechanism, with the potential of AI and blockchain combined to rival or exceed the impact of the internet [5] - However, the narrative is currently dominated by DAT, ETFs, leveraged trading, and liquidation events, allowing a few participants to gain excess profits at the expense of the majority [5][6] - Short-sighted and fraudulent behaviors in the crypto ecosystem drive away builders and stagnate technological development, ultimately harming the entire industry, including those who genuinely believe in the technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of entrepreneurs from Henan province signifies a shift in China's consumption landscape, showcasing that success is achievable through grounded, practical approaches rather than traditional elite backgrounds [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneurs from Henan - Yu Donglai, founder of a retail chain, offers employees 150 to 180 days of annual leave with an average salary of 8,000, demonstrating a commitment to employee satisfaction that translates into business success, with annual sales nearing 17 billion [5][11]. - Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, founders of Mixue Ice City, disrupted the beverage market by significantly lowering prices, establishing their brand as the world's largest restaurant chain by store count, surpassing even global giants like KFC and McDonald's [7][11]. - Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, capitalizes on emotional pricing, transforming toys into luxury items for young consumers, and has achieved a personal net worth surpassing that of prominent figures like Jack Ma [9][11]. Group 2: Economic and Social Context - Henan, with a population exceeding 100 million and a significant labor force, has historically faced economic challenges, including a stark wealth gap and limited educational opportunities, yet is now positioned to leverage its demographic advantages in the new economic landscape [3][11]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to a domestic consumption-focused model has allowed Henan to emerge as a key player, with its large population now serving as both a consumer base and a labor reserve [11][15]. - The character and mindset of Henan entrepreneurs, characterized by practicality and resilience, contrast with traditional business narratives, emphasizing a focus on supply chain efficiency and grounded business practices [13][17]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The rise of Henan entrepreneurs reflects a structural change in China's economy, moving towards a decentralized and diversified consumption model, challenging previous stereotypes associated with the region [15][19]. - The success stories from Henan illustrate that future consumption trends may prioritize accessibility, cost-effectiveness, and emotional connection over high-tech solutions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [17][19]. - The emergence of Henan as a business hub symbolizes a broader transformation in Chinese commercial civilization, suggesting that growth can originate from traditionally overlooked areas [19].

Core Insights - The European Web3 industry is characterized by a strong belief in idealism, with a focus on decentralization and privacy, distinguishing it from the more profit-driven approaches seen in the US and Asia [3][4][38]. Group 1: Decentralization in Europe - The term "decentralization" describes the European crypto industry, emphasizing a lack of reliance on single influential figures, with many entering the Web3 space driven by personal beliefs rather than financial gain [4][39]. - Geographically, Europe lacks a central hub, with various countries contributing unique characteristics to a fragmented yet layered Web3 landscape [5][40]. Group 2: Country-Specific Characteristics - Germany is noted for its distributed industry, with a strong engineering culture and a preference for research and development over business roles [6][41][42]. - France's Web3 participants often come from traditional sectors like fast-moving consumer goods and luxury, bringing strong social and market expansion skills to the industry [8][43]. - Switzerland is recognized for its neutral regulatory framework, making it attractive for non-profit organizations and research institutions in the crypto space [9][44]. - Lisbon, Portugal, has gained popularity in the Web3 community due to its appealing lifestyle and the influx of digital nomads, particularly from the US [10][47][48]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and User Behavior - Despite being a niche market, Europe has a significant presence in the Total Value Locked (TVL) rankings, with half of the top projects originating from the region [13][50]. - The overall penetration rate of Web3 in Europe is approximately 6%, indicating that only 6 out of 100 individuals use cryptocurrencies, which is lower than in the US and Asia [13][50]. - European users tend to view cryptocurrencies as part of a diversified asset allocation rather than a high-stakes gamble, reflecting a more cautious investment approach [14][51]. Group 4: Stablecoin Trends - Stablecoins are viewed as a promising direction in Europe, driven by the need for a unified payment settlement system and the geopolitical landscape, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict [17][54][56]. - The lack of a unified payment system in the EU leads to a reliance on US-based systems, prompting interest in developing a European alternative through stablecoins [18][55]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping during the pandemic has increased the demand for efficient payment methods, further legitimizing the use of stablecoins [21][58]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The European Parliament passed the MiCA regulation, establishing a comprehensive framework for digital asset regulation across EU member states, which includes provisions for tax treatment of cryptocurrencies [25][62]. - In Germany, cryptocurrencies are classified as private property, with specific tax implications based on holding periods and transaction types [27][66][68]. - France imposes higher tax burdens on cryptocurrencies, treating them as movable property and applying capital gains taxes on profits from transactions [32][69]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The European Web3 landscape may not exhibit the same volatility as other regions, but it is fostering a different type of crypto enterprise focused on sustainable business models and compliance [33][70]. - The potential for growth in the European market is significant, given its population of nearly 600 million, with a higher income level compared to developing countries, enhancing the willingness to pay for products and services [61].

这行业能配得上 “行业贡献” 的人有多少？微策略的 Michael Saylor、cz heyi、徐明星、V 神，这轮再算一个 Jeff，说白了都是掰着手指头能算出来的人名头太大了，我们都不配得这么个所谓行业贡献奖，如果真的对行业有贡献，不需要这个标签也会被群众认可那么 KOL 身上有标签吗？当然有啊。靠身材靠脸发自拍博出位，被群众当成花瓶或者福利姬；靠搞黑流量的，被群众当成小丑；靠嘴撸互关的，被群众屏蔽或隐藏想获得什么受众，想成为什么样的人，就去做什么样的事。种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆，哪怕像币安这样的权威机构，去给谁贴标签，也无法获得群众的认可，这就是去中心化 ...

深化合作:一场技术与生态的融合 波场TRON与MetaMask的联合行动绝非偶然。早在2025年8月,双方便已实现原生集成,MetaMask用户可 一键直达波场TRON生态,享受高吞吐量、低成本的链上交互体验。此次在Devconnect大会期间共同举办 Builder Night,进一步深化了双方的战略合作。活动现场,来自全球的开发者、技术极客与行业领袖围绕 去中心化治理、跨链协作、开发者工具创新等议题展开深度对话。波场TRON社区发言人Sam Elfarra表 示:与MetaMask的联合活动,旨在打破技术壁垒,为全球开发者搭建自由交流的平台,共同探索区块链技术 的无限可能。 去中心化教育的全球化实践 作为由社区管理的去中心化自治组织(DAO),波场TRON始终将推动区块链技术的教育与普及视为核心使 命。通过与MetaMask的联合推广活动,波场TRON不仅在产品开发层面实现突破,更在全球社区参与维度 迈出关键步伐。孙宇晨曾多次强调:区块链技术的未来,取决于开发者的创造力与用户的广泛参与。此次 Builder Night活动,正是这一理念的生动体现。从技术研讨会到项目路演,从代码实操到生态资源对接,活 动为 ...