比特币此次价格突破了117000美元，这是其价格历史上的又一个重要标志。在此之前，比特币价格常常 大幅波动。不过此次创下新高，还是出乎了很多人的意料。推动价格上涨的原因有不少，比如在全球流 动性宽松的情形下，投资者开始寻觅新的投资途径。部分大型金融机构进入市场，增强了市场的信心， 也增加了资金。 市场反应 比特币价格突破了117000美元，这个价格创造了新的高度，这种情况在金融市场引起了极大的轰动。比 特币有着去中心化的特性，它的总量是固定的，吸引了众多投资者的关注。可是，比特币价格波动剧 烈，并且缺少监管，这产生了不少隐患。接下来就详细说一说这一现象。 价格飙升 金融市场对此有了明显反应，这带动了加密货币市场的整体情绪，进而使得相关概念股迎来一波上涨， 投资者参与热情高涨，一些原本持观望态度的人也心动入场，不过不少专家表示担忧，因为现在价格处 于高位，追高风险较大，所以投资需谨慎 。 技术分析 从技术方面来说，这次比特币价格上涨展现出了良好的状态，各项技术指标都处于积极的形势，价格走 势所形成的上升趋势线比较稳固 。不过，技术分析只是在一定程度上起到参考的作用，它没办法完全 精准地预测后市的发展状况，因为比 ...

Core Insights - Circle's successful IPO marks the entry of stablecoins into mainstream finance, reshaping payment systems, currencies, and the global financial order [1] - Stablecoins are not merely "digital dollars" but are digital assets anchored to fiat currencies, becoming foundational settlement assets in the digital economy [2] - The emergence of stablecoins is transforming the financial infrastructure market, moving beyond the realm of cryptocurrency innovation [3] Group 1: Perspectives from Different Financial Entities - Traditional finance views stablecoins as "electronic dollars," but they are actually blockchain-based digital assets [2] - Banks are exploring tokenized deposits to compete with stablecoins, but the inherent advantages of stablecoins lie in their openness and composability [4] - Central banks question the efficacy of CBDCs compared to stablecoins, which operate on an open protocol and offer global financial connectivity [5] Group 2: Characteristics and Impact of Stablecoins - The popularity of stablecoins, especially USD-pegged ones, is altering the global monetary system through stability, programmability, and global liquidity [6] - Major players in the stablecoin market include Tether (USDT), PayPal USD, and compliant stablecoins from Paxos and First Digital [7] - Stablecoins are more efficient than traditional banking systems, which often operate in closed environments with limited interoperability [8][9] Group 3: Future Implications and Opportunities - The rise of stablecoins presents a dual impact on the Federal Reserve, expanding dollar demand while altering the monetary multiplier through technology [10] - Payment institutions face both challenges and opportunities from stablecoins, which could disrupt traditional payment gateways while also providing avenues for innovation [11] - Entrepreneurs see vast potential for innovation with stablecoins, which serve as foundational assets for programmable financial protocols [12][13] Group 4: The Broader Context of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are seen as a compromise between decentralized ideals and centralized custodianship, marking a significant step towards mainstream financial integration [15] - The integration of stablecoins into payment systems can enhance transaction efficiency and reduce reliance on traditional banking [16] - There is potential for localized stablecoins in developing regions and innovative financial products combining stablecoins with real-world assets [17] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Usage - Stablecoins have significantly higher daily active users and transaction volumes compared to Bitcoin, indicating their role as a primary medium of exchange [18] - The true value of stablecoins lies in understanding their potential and building new business models around them [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term rebound, long-term supply-demand surplus, focus on whether the 2509 contract can effectively break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound, pay attention to the trends of hot metal and supply side [2] - Rolled steel: Rebound, short-term supply contraction expectation, mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Rebound, short-term valuation is relatively low, pay attention to downstream demand recovery [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai Composite 50 rebounds, CSI 300 oscillates, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 go up, it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year and 5-year treasury bonds oscillate, 10-year treasury bond rebounds, hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation, pay attention to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [5] - Oils and fats: Oscillation, palm oil may be relatively stronger supported by production reduction in the origin [5] - Meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [5] - Live pigs: Rebound, the price is expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Rebound, expected to maintain a wide-range oscillating trend [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [9] - MEG: Try shorting at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities including black industry, financial products, precious metals, light industrial products, agricultural products, and soft commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply-demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Recently, the iron ore futures price rebounded due to emotional influence. The end-of-quarter rush of mines is basically over, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The short-term supply is still loose. In the long term, the supply will gradually increase, the demand will be relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation stage. The 2509 contract should focus on whether it can effectively break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by supply-side reform news and Tangshan's production restrictions, the prices of black commodities rose, and raw materials followed. The supply of the coking coal and coke market is expected to increase. Coke prices were suppressed by steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increased. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and supply side [2] - Rolled steel: The "anti-involution" in the supply side has boosted positive sentiment. If the hard emission reduction measures in Tangshan are implemented as planned, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The demand for building materials has slightly increased in the off-season, and the profits of the five major steel products are acceptable. The total inventory of steel products remains flat, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the small-plate market in Shahe has been reignited. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons to meet the seasonal inventory reduction. The demand is expected to weaken in the rainy season, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is still at a high level in the same period of the past two years [2] - Soda ash: The long-term real estate industry is still in the adjustment period, and the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short-term valuation is relatively low, and the futures price has risen sharply due to emotional influence. Pay attention to the downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite 300 index fell by 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index fell by 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 0.27%. The funds flowed into the education and diversified finance sectors, and flowed out of the precious metals and insurance sectors. China's economic data shows resilience, and the market risk aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year China bond at maturity remained flat, FR007 remained flat, and SHIBOR3M decreased by 1bp. The central bank carried out 75.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal on the day was 23 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the treasury bond trend has a narrow rebound. Hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] Precious Metals - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and risk aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, global interest rates, and geopolitical risks. The current logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and it is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4] - Silver: It is in a high-level oscillation state. Pay attention to the release of June CPI data and the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The short-term market risk aversion sentiment has rebounded, boosting the gold price. The market has postponed the expected earliest interest rate cut by the Fed to October [4] Light Industrial Products - Pulp: The spot market prices showed mixed trends. The cost price decline weakened the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is at a low level, and the demand is in the off-season. The pulp fundamentals present a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [5] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly last week. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in May increased by 18% compared with the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week decreased by 25.73% month-on-month. The port inventory decreased by 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The cost-side support has strengthened. The short-term supply pressure has eased, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant. Pay attention to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month-on-month. With Malaysia continuing to lower the export tariff of palm oil in July, the strong export momentum is expected to continue, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may decline. The B40 policy in Indonesia is still undecided. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply concerns have been eliminated. Crude oil has dragged down the oils and fats, while the US biodiesel policy expectation has boosted the oils and fats. The domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats continues to rise, and the supply is abundant while the demand is in the off-season. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and palm oil may be relatively stronger supported by production reduction in the origin [5] - Meals: The soybean planting area in 2025 was only slightly adjusted compared with the March intention. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the extreme high-temperature weather is expected to decrease in the coming weeks. South American soybeans have a bumper harvest, and the soybean market remains weak. The domestic import of soybeans in July is expected to be about 10 million tons. The inventory of soybean meal has continued to rise, and it is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The current pig farmers have a strong sentiment of holding back prices, and the pig prices in the north are moving smoothly. The supply of pigs in the south is expected to be tight in July, and the prices may continue to rise. The average trading weight of pigs across the country has continued to decline. The price of pork has risen following the increase in pig prices, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm has significantly increased. The average settlement price of pigs at key slaughtering enterprises across the country has continued to rise, and the opening rate has decreased slightly. It is expected that the pig prices will continue to rise in the next period [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: On the supply side, the natural rubber production areas at home and abroad are generally affected by rainfall, and the raw material supply is tight. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry in China has shown a structural recovery. The inventory of natural rubber in China has increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide-range oscillating trend [9] - PX: The positive driving force is limited, and the oil price faces a callback risk. The PX load has slightly declined, and the PTA load has slightly oscillated and rebounded, but the polyester load has slightly decreased. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX remain tight, and the PX price fluctuates with the oil price [9] - PTA: The cost side oscillates after a decline, the overall supply of PTA fluctuates narrowly, and the load of downstream polyester factories has slightly decreased. In the medium term, the supply and demand of PTA will weaken. The short-term PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost [9] - MEG: The arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory has increased last week. It is gradually entering a period of supply and demand inventory accumulation. With the rapid recovery of coal-based production capacity, the supply pressure may emerge, and the price is under pressure to fluctuate [9] - PR: The terminal is gradually replenishing at low prices, and the supply side continues to tighten. The polyester bottle chip market has limited room for further decline. However, the spot circulation is still loose, and in the short term, it may operate in a range [9] - PF: Although the overnight oil price continued to rise, the downstream orders remain sluggish, and the sales data of the polyester staple fiber market have been weak recently. Without new positive news, it is expected to weaken and consolidate today [9]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Suggestion to exit short positions and observe [2] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, observe iron and coal supply trends [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral, expect short-term supply reduction and mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Neutral, short-term valuation is low, observe downstream demand recovery [2] - Stock index futures/options: Suggestion to hold long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Suggestion to hold long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate, observe futures delivery impact [6] - Edible oils: Expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] - PTA: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - MEG: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - Polyester bottle chips and polyester staple fibers: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is affected by short-term sentiment, but the medium- to long-term supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply-side news and production resumption, with weak downstream demand [2] - The steel market is affected by supply-side reduction measures, with mild demand decline and balanced supply and demand in the short term [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, with high inventory and weak demand [2] - The stock index market is supported by economic resilience and reduced risk aversion, suggesting long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - The gold and silver markets are affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - The pulp market has a weak supply-demand pattern, expected to fluctuate [6] - The log market has stable prices, reduced supply pressure, and balanced supply and demand [6] - The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - The meal market is affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The live pig market has strong price support and is expected to continue rising [7] - The rubber market has tight supply, weak demand, and high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester markets are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Short-term rebound due to sentiment, medium- to long-term supply increase, demand at a low level, and inventory accumulation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Price increase due to supply-side news, production resumption expected, weak downstream demand [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Supply reduction expected, demand mild decline, supply and demand balanced in the short term [2] - Glass: No substantial positive factors, high inventory, weak demand, short-term valuation low [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Economic resilience supports the market, risk aversion eases, suggesting long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are stable, narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Weak supply and demand, cost support weakens, expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Stable prices, reduced supply pressure, balanced supply and demand, observe futures delivery impact [6] Agricultural Products - Edible oils: Sufficient supply, weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Strong price support, expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Tight supply, weak demand, high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester: Affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9]

Tether凭借其盈利能力、庞大的规模以及相对简单的核心业务模式，成为行业中的佼佼者。 Tether最初以Realcoin的名义于2014年由Brock Pierce、Reeve Collins和Craig Sellars在中国香港创立，旨 在为去中心化的比特币交易创建一种与美元挂钩的稳定币。不久后，该项目更名为Tether，并在Omni层 （比特币"第二层"协议）推出，解决了比特币交易中的高交易费用等问题。随后，其原始创始人退出了 业务，将公司出售给了Bitfinex所有者。他们认为Tether是连接全球比特币平台的关键桥梁，使比特币能 够像其他金融产品一样交易，而无需传统金融体系的参与。 当时，Bitfinex还是一家新兴的比特币交易所，人员规模较小，但从一开始便是一个去中心化的企业。 Bitfinex的首席财务官，即Devasini曾是一名意大利整形外科医生，后来转向开发基于Linux的业务，包 括卫星电视接收器和机顶盒。在接触到Linux的开源理念后，Devasini和新一届Tether管理层自然对去中 心化技术和加密技术持开放态度。 在中本聪2009年发布比特币白皮书后，最早的比特币用户主要是那些极 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，相比黄金ETF和期货等其他黄金投资品，稳定币的去中心化 特征提升了黄金交易的便捷程度。黄金稳定币市场目前呈现"双雄分治"的局面，Tether公司发行的 XAUT币和Paxos公司发行的PAXG币各占市场份额的近一半。截至2025年6月，黄金稳定币市场的市值 规模达到16亿美元，约占全部稳定币市值规模的0.67%，是排在美元稳定币和加密货币抵押型稳定币之 后的第三大类稳定币。 相比黄金ETF和期货等其他黄金投资品，稳定币的去中心化特征提升了黄金交易的便捷程度： 降低时空限制：黄金稳定币运行在区块链上，可实现任意时间的全球快速交易; 降低投资门槛：黄金稳定币对应黄金条块的所有权，在交易的过程中可以实现黄金条块的碎片化分割， 最高可分割至小数点后六位(约0.02元); 降低交易费用：黄金稳定币仅收取较低的交易费用(如PAXG币收取万分之二)。 黄金稳定币的发展：需突破三类困难 国泰海通主要观点如下： 黄金与稳定币的结合存在优势，不过未来发展也需要突破一些障碍。如果机制改善，黄金稳定币可以承 担价值储藏的功能，以及特定条件下的支付和结算功能。 黄金稳定币：悄然崛起的"币圈新宠" ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2025年5月底，香港《稳定币条例》生效，引发了很多朋友的关注。 另外，市场也传出了不少稳定币相关的消息。 比如京东、蚂蚁集团， 都在计划推出稳定币。 有朋友问，稳定币是什么，跟数字货币、比特币相比，有什么异同？ 它背后的商业逻辑是什么呢？ 稳定币：一种挂钩法币的加密货币 稳定币，是一种特殊的加密货币。 它的一个核心价值，就是稳定。 通过挂钩 法定货币 （如美元、 欧元 ），不会像比特币一样，出现剧烈的价格波动。 前几年搞了一段时间数字货币。 数字货币 本质是 法币 ，类似人民币、美元。 比如前面提到的USDC。 1USDC，就等价于1美元。 世界上第一个主流的稳定币，是Tether公司2014年推出的USDT（当时叫Realcoin）。 到2025年，香港《稳定币条例》5月底生效，美国也在6月初通过了一个名为《GENIUS Act》的相 关法案。 这也意味着，稳定币有了正式监管，从之前的边缘工具，升级成为了一种被认可的金融基础设施。 稳定币与比特币、数字货币的区别 稳定币、比特币、数字货币，三者的目的不同。 （1） 数字货币 只是摆脱了实体印刷，方便数字化交易支付。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the mystery surrounding the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, and the evolution of Bitcoin from its inception to its current state [3][4][6]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Origins and Ideals - Bitcoin was introduced in 2008 through a white paper that combined proof-of-work mechanisms, public-key cryptography, and peer-to-peer network architecture to create a decentralized digital currency [1]. - The concept of Bitcoin emerged from a group known as "Cypherpunks," which included both hippies and libertarians who were united by their discontent with the traditional financial system following the 2008 financial crisis [4][6]. Group 2: The Decline of Bitcoin's Ideals - Despite its initial promise, Bitcoin has devolved into a platform for speculation, fraud, money laundering, and black market transactions, undermining its original ideals of anonymity and decentralization [6]. - The failure of Bitcoin is attributed not to technical issues but to social problems, as idealists have fragmented into opposing factions, allowing opportunists to exploit the system [6]. Group 3: The Search for Satoshi Nakamoto - The book "The Mysterious Mr. Nakamoto" chronicles a 15-year quest to uncover Nakamoto's identity, highlighting the challenges faced in this pursuit [3][8]. - Various theories about Nakamoto's anonymity are explored, including the notion that his significant Bitcoin holdings may pose a risk of kidnapping, and the idea that a clear leader would contradict the decentralized nature of Bitcoin [6][8]. - The investigation ultimately fails to reveal Nakamoto's true identity, with attempts at stylometry leading to inconclusive results and a sense of an elusive mystery [6][8].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-25） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量贡献较大，整 体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 材产量增，铁水止跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。唐山传出钢铁企 | | | | | 业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若铁水破 240 万 | | | | | 吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，基本面仍供需偏弱，空单继续持有。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉煤成本 | | | | | 下降，多数企业保持在盈利状态，钢厂仍有打压焦炭意愿，对焦企第四轮 | | | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | ...

AI不会替你理清混乱，只会让混乱显现得更彻底。真正决定AI是否能带来规模化效益的，不是你用了 什么技术，而是你的组织结构是否成熟——管理职责是否清晰、流程是否统一、团队之间是否协同顺 畅。 前言：很多企业在引入人工智能时，抱着一个美好的愿景：希望AI能让决策更快、协作更顺、执行更 强。但现实往往事与愿违——问题不但没有减少，反而被放大了。 最近,两位人工智能领域的巨头——Cognition 和 Anthropic——围绕 AI 多智能体架构展开了激烈交锋。 争论的核心并非算法优劣，而是如何构建一个能支撑 AI 规模化协作的结构性环境。这场争论，正好映 射出所有企业在部署 AI 时即将面对的现实困境。 为什么？不是因为AI不够先进，而是组织本身的管理架构就承受不起这种"放大"。 否则，AI不会让你跑得更快，只会让你更早撞墙。所以，别再把问题归咎于AI"不够聪明"。真正需要升 级的，是你的管理系统。只有当企业拥有一个稳健、灵活、协同良好的管理架构时，AI的力量才不会 变成混乱的助推器，而会成为一台高效执行的引擎。 AI只是放大镜，结构才是真问题 企业的结构，其实是通过"人"与"流程"这两条线来落地的。而在一个变化 ...