1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 590 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. The global financial market will迎来 a "central bank super week". The Fed is expected to cut interest rates multiple times. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining permit approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain cold, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium is adjusted downwards. Technically, with stable positions and price adjustments, there are differences in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct interval operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 273,960 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin was - 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price was 34,955 US dollars/ton, with a change of 255 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 26,117 lots, a decrease of 1,373 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,780 lots, a decrease of 762 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,620 tons, an increase of 235 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,897 tons, an increase of 124 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants were 185 tons, a decrease of 15 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin were 7,402 tons, an increase of 76 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 273,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 630 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was - 660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton. The LME tin spread (0 - 3) was - 34.98 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 79.98 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 261,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 265,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 177,790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans in China increased by 590 billion yuan, 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the new social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year and in January, April, and July 2026. According to the FedWatch tool, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [3]

Core Insights - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of key financial market events for the upcoming week, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its stance, as well as the rate decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Economic Data Releases - On Monday, the focus is on the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September, with expectations of a potential third consecutive month of recovery, although recent key U.S. data has shown weakness, raising concerns about a slowdown [3] - On Tuesday, the U.K. will release employment data, which may influence market perceptions regarding the Bank of England's potential for rate cuts this year, especially with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7%, a four-year high [4] - The U.S. will also report August retail sales on Tuesday, with attention on whether growth remains moderate or further slows, reflecting the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and economic confidence [6] Group 2: Central Bank Decisions - On Wednesday, the U.K. will publish August CPI data, which previously showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, the highest in 18 months; further increases could diminish expectations for rate cuts by year-end [7] - The Eurozone is expected to release its final August CPI, anticipated to remain at 2%, aligning with the ECB's target and supporting the outlook for a pause in rate cuts [7] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut due to recent job losses and a decline in Q2 GDP [7] Group 3: Key Central Bank Meetings - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts by 25 basis points, with the market fully pricing in this move; attention will be on the Fed's communication regarding its dovish stance and potential for further cuts by year-end [10] - The Bank of England is also expected to maintain its current rate but will be closely watched for policymakers' evaluations of recent data and the outlook for potential cuts in November [10] - On Friday, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep rates unchanged, with recent optimistic economic data supporting a potential rate hike, although political uncertainties from the Prime Minister's resignation may influence decisions [12]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations as investors widely anticipate a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - Major U.S. stock indices are rising, with U.S. stock futures indicating continued gains on Wall Street, while European markets are also generally higher [2][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index briefly surpassed its record high from February 2021 before retreating [2] Group 2 - The focus of investors is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with the market almost fully pricing in rate cuts in the next three meetings [4][8] - Concerns remain that if the Fed conveys a hawkish message, risk assets may experience volatility [4] - Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, are also set to announce their policy decisions this week, which will impact major global currencies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see major decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England regarding interest rates, with expectations of rate cuts primarily driven by labor market weaknesses and inflation concerns [2][3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting on September 16-17, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [3][4]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [3][4]. - Market expectations suggest a 76% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first cut anticipated in September [3][4]. - Analysts indicate that the Fed's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with political pressures also influencing its decisions [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7]. - Political uncertainty has increased following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which may affect the Bank of Japan's future monetary policy decisions [6][7]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the rate will remain unchanged [7]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, with a 5-4 vote reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [6][8]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and influence future monetary policy [8]. - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor has indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [8]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the rate down to 2.5% [9]. - Recent economic indicators, including a rise in unemployment and a contraction in GDP, suggest significant downward pressure on the Canadian economy [9]. - Analysts believe that the Bank of Canada will adopt a cautious approach, potentially implementing further cuts in October due to ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S. [9].

投资者预计美联储今年三次降息的可能性为76%，第一次就在9月会议。美国总统特朗普甚至表示，他预计美联储 将宣布"大幅降息"。 美联储将于9月16~17日召开货币政策会议。近期公布的数据显示，8月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）比上月上涨 0.4%，高于7月0.2%的涨幅，通胀粘性仍存。但与此同时，每周申请失业救济人数增至26.3万人，升至近四年来最 高水平。市场普遍预计，疲软的劳动力市场数据会压过通胀粘性的影响，令美联储届时将开启新一轮降息，降息 幅度为25个基点，将使得联邦基金利率调整至4.00%~4.25%的区间。当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普甚至表 示，他预计美联储将宣布"大幅降息"。 根据芝加哥商品交易所"美联储观察"（CME FedWatch）项目，截至上周末，投资者预计美联储今年三次降息的可 能性为76%，因为劳动力市场的裂缝越来越大。 品浩（PIMCO）董事总经理兼经济学家威尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）对第一财经表示，最新公布的数据整体显示美 国劳动力市场趋弱，而通胀仍受关税政策推动，核心CPI环比上涨0.35%，录得自4月初以来最强劲的月度表现。 但相比通胀数据，失业救济申请的上升更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the global financial market this week is on the anticipated interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, following Trump's return to the presidency [1] Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, influenced by a softening labor market and pressure from the White House [2] - The Bank of Canada is also expected to lower rates to 2.5% amid weak employment and economic contraction [3] - Other developed economies, such as the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, are likely to maintain their current rates, with the latter still on a tightening path [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales are projected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating consumer resilience despite concerns over labor market weakness and rising prices [3] - In Canada, inflation is expected to slightly rise to 2% in August, while core inflation remains around 3% [3] - Key economic data from Japan, including trade balance and CPI, will be closely monitored for inflation trends [4] Group 3: Regional Developments - In Europe, the UK is expected to maintain its inflation rate at 3.8%, with the Bank of England likely to keep the base rate at 4% [5] - The European Central Bank will hold a two-day meeting, with important economic data from Germany and the Eurozone set to be released [6] - In Latin America, Brazil's GDP indicators suggest an economic slowdown, while the central bank is expected to maintain high interest rates [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates significant capital inflows into emerging markets at the beginning of next year, driven by a shift of funds away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - Emerging markets are showing resilience, leading to expectations of increased capital inflows [1] - Optimism is expected to rise as the impact of trade tensions is perceived to be limited [1] - Even small-scale diversified investment flows from the U.S. could have a substantial effect on emerging markets [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - Factors contributing to the positive outlook for emerging markets include a weaker dollar, potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks, and historically low allocation of global funds to emerging markets [1] - Key beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows are identified as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by signs of resilience in these economies and a shift of capital away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - There are increasing signs that emerging economies are resilient, which is likely to boost investor confidence [1] - The impact of trade tensions on the economy is expected to be limited, leading to a more optimistic outlook for early next year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The emerging market asset class is anticipated to benefit from a weaker dollar and the potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks [1] - Global funds are currently underweight in emerging markets, indicating a historical low allocation that could change with the anticipated inflow [1]

每经AI快讯，9月12日，秘鲁央行降息25个基点，将基准利率降至4.25%。 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is expected to strengthen in the next year due to the Bank of Canada's potential limited rate cuts and anticipated interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, which may stimulate the Canadian economy [1][2] - The median forecast indicates that the CAD will appreciate by 1.4% in three months to 1.36 CAD per USD, and by 2.8% in twelve months to 1.3415 CAD per USD [1] - Investors anticipate that the Bank of Canada will restart its easing cycle at the policy meeting on September 17, with a total expected rate cut of about 40 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nick Rees, a senior forex market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd., suggests that the Bank of Canada is nearing the end of its rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve has not yet begun significant reductions [2] - The potential unexpected magnitude of rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and positive spillover effects from Canadian economic growth indicate significant upside potential for the CAD against the USD in the next 12 months [2]