巴西总统卢拉：在金砖国家峰会期间，没有人提及特朗普的关税威胁。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic dialogue between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU's High Representative Josep Borrell, signaling important developments in China-EU relations [1][3] - Merkel's call for EU unity against US tariff threats emphasizes the need for Europe to adopt an independent policy towards China, reflecting a shift in the EU's approach to its relationship with China [3][5] - The economic ties between China and the EU are strong, with daily trade exceeding $2.7 billion, positioning China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's internal policy divisions regarding China are becoming more pronounced, with the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen favoring a tougher stance, while Germany's position is crucial in shaping the overall EU approach [3][5] - Merkel's statements indicate a potential correction in the EU's China policy, advocating for a strategy based on European interests rather than blind alignment with US pressures [3][5] - The article discusses the growing awareness in Europe regarding strategic autonomy, with calls for reduced reliance on US military protection and a more independent stance in international affairs [5][7] Group 3 - The article outlines the broad cooperation potential between China and the EU in global governance areas such as climate change and biodiversity, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts [5][7] - The complexities of the EU's decision-making process, influenced by the diverse interests of its 27 member states, pose challenges for a unified China strategy [7] - The dialogue between Wang Yi and Merkel's remarks suggest a pivotal moment for China-EU relations, with an emphasis on pragmatic cooperation and the necessity for enhanced communication to address global challenges [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面： 关税威胁引发风险资产抛售，金价震荡回升；7月4日美国独立日假期 休市，当天美股和美债现货市场休市，欧洲主要股指收盘多数下跌；美元指数跌 0.13%报96.99，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1646；COMEX黄金期货收涨0.11%报 3346.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货777.06，现货772.6，基差-5.46，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单21456千克，增加3000千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多 ...

当特朗普说7月9日前完成大多数国家关税时，商务部长卢特尼克随即补充道，关税将于8月1日生效。分 析称，这为各国提供了超出此前7月9日截止期限的额外时间。 据报道，特朗普当地时间周日（7月6日）表示，美国正接近达成几项贸易协议，将在7月9日前通知其他 国家更高的关税税率。他透露大多数国家将在7月9日前收到通知信函或达成协议，其中一些通知信函将 从周一开始发出。 在回答记者关税生效日期的提问时，特朗普表示，会在7月9日前完成对大多数国家的关税。在特朗普身 旁的卢特尼克随即补充道，"但他们将于8月1日生效。" 美国财长贝森特(Scott Bessent)此前也发表类似言论。据华尔街见闻文章提及，贝森特在媒体采访中表 示，美国将向贸易伙伴发出通知函，要求在8月1日前达成协议，否则将回到4月2日的关税水平。 分析指出，这一时间表调整为全球贸易伙伴提供了三周缓冲期，同时凸显了特朗普政府利用关税威胁推 进贸易谈判的策略。 此外，贝森特称，几项重大贸易协议公告可能在未来几天内发布，欧盟在谈判中取得了良好进展。白宫 官员表示，与欧洲和印度的谈判进展积极，正在进行认真谈判的国家可能获得期限延长。 关税生效时间获得缓冲 特朗普周日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the tensions between the U.S. and China, and the implications for the EU as it navigates its economic relationship with both powers [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is attempting to isolate China through global supply chains, despite a temporary "truce" in tariffs [3][5]. - The U.S. has relaxed some export restrictions on China and is urging China to accelerate rare earth exports, indicating a strategic maneuver to contain China economically [3][5]. - The U.S. has issued a "last ultimatum" to the EU regarding tariffs, threatening punitive tariffs of up to 50% on EU goods if an agreement is not reached by July 9 [5][6]. Group 2: China's Diplomatic Response - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Europe aims to restart high-level strategic dialogues and strengthen cooperation with Germany and France [5][9]. - Wang Yi warns the EU against "selling out" to the U.S. in tariff negotiations, emphasizing that the challenges Europe faces do not stem from China [9][10]. - China has implemented new anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products from the EU and other countries, signaling a strong response to perceived aggression from the U.S. and its allies [10][11]. Group 3: EU's Position and Challenges - The EU's economic relationship with China is significant, especially in the automotive and high-tech sectors, but U.S. pressure is forcing the EU to adopt a tougher stance on exports to China [9][10]. - Wang Yi highlights the dangers of misinterpreting historical and cultural differences as reasons for confrontation, urging the EU to avoid repeating past mistakes [9][11]. - The EU faces a critical decision regarding its trade strategy: aligning with the U.S. or maintaining a cooperative stance with China to uphold a multilateral trade system [11].

苹果公司在中国市场的业绩复苏受到了华尔街的欢迎，其股票在周四收涨。然而，这家科技巨头的股价 今年却下跌了约 15%，因为该公司面临着诸多不利因素，其中包括特朗普总统的关税威胁。 苹果公司还面临着来自中国科技巨头华为的激烈竞争，因为华为正在不断蚕食苹果在中国的市场份额。 据Counterpoint称，华为有望在各大品牌中实现最高增长率，并在 2025 年第二季度成为中国市场排名第 一的品牌。 资深分析师Ivan Lam指出："在促销期间，华为的销量也有显著增长。华为仍凭借其核心用户的忠诚度 而保持良好态势，因为这些用户会将旧手机换成华为的新款产品。" 智通财经APP获悉，据Counterpoint Research称，苹果公司(AAPL.US)在中国的 iPhone 销量在第二季度 实现了两年来的首次增长，此时这家科技巨头正试图扭转其在这一主要市场的业务状况。2025 年第二 季度，iPhone 在中国的销量较上年同期增长了 8%。这是自 2023 年第二季度以来，iPhone 在中国销量 首次实现同比增长。该研究机构指出，由于 iPhone 16 Pro 和 Pro Max 机型的强劲销售，该公司预计将 迎来 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated that Taiwan has no basis, reason, or right to participate in the United Nations or other international organizations that only sovereign states can join, emphasizing the one-China principle [1] - The Chinese government expressed strong support for the establishment of a Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone and is willing to sign the treaty protocol [2] - The Chinese government stated that trade agreements, such as the one between the US and Vietnam, should not target or harm the interests of third parties [3] Group 2 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed claims of a "Chinese espionage threat" as baseless, asserting that China is a victim of espionage activities and calling for an end to the spread of misinformation [4] - The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent visit to Europe aimed to strengthen China-EU relations amid existing tensions, with discussions on enhancing economic cooperation and addressing differences [5][6] - Both China and the EU expressed a commitment to multilateralism and free trade, aiming to maintain international order and address global challenges together [6]

7月3日，第十三届世界和平论坛在北京开幕。中共中央对外联络部部长刘建超发表午餐演讲。刘建超表 示，80年是人类发展过程中一个很大的周期。在80年之后，我们又看到了传统安全威胁的回归，看到战 争、战乱的持续发生。借着这样一个机会，世界人民坐在一起能够思考我们如何实现全球有效的、长期 的安全架构，确实保障和平。 ...

Core Insights - Despite bipartisan efforts in the U.S. to decouple the economy from China, the U.S. defense supply chain remains heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers, with Chinese companies accounting for approximately 9.3% of primary suppliers in nine key defense sectors for 2024 [1][2] - The report from Govini highlights vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense supply chain, indicating a significant dependency on foreign suppliers, particularly in missile defense, where reliance on Chinese suppliers reaches 11.1% [1][5] - The number of Chinese suppliers in the nuclear sector has increased by 45.5% year-over-year, with 534 Chinese suppliers compared to 405 from Canada and 366 from the UK [2][4] Dependency on Key Minerals - Many U.S. weapon systems depend on critical minerals predominantly produced by China, with over 1,900 U.S. weapon systems relying on these minerals [5] - The report indicates that approximately 78% of U.S. weapon systems could be affected by China's export controls on critical minerals, which include antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten, and tellurium [5] - Recent export control measures by China on various minerals have further highlighted the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense supply chain [4][5] Political Context - The U.S. has been increasingly vocal about the so-called "China threat," with military and intelligence reports labeling China as a significant military and cyber threat [5][6] - The Chinese government has criticized the U.S. for its biased reports and urged for a more stable and healthy development of U.S.-China relations, rejecting the narrative of a "China threat" [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the macro - situation drives up risk appetite, and the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. However, there are risks in different sectors, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The macro situation has improved, the index has broken through the short - term shock range, and the dividend sector has rebounded. In the process of the central shift upward, be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. It is recommended to sell MO options with an exercise price of 5900 from August to September with a light position to collect option premiums. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips in the short term, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market loosened, and treasury bonds rebounded as a whole, but there is currently no momentum to break through the previous high. In the short - term unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The threat of US tariffs has increased, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and gold has continued its rebound trend. If the gold price stabilizes above the 60 - day moving average, it will fluctuate above $3300; the silver price will oscillate in the range of $35.5 - $36.5. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. Black - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The Tangshan production restriction policy may suppress iron ore demand. It is recommended to short at high levels, with the fluctuation range referring to 690 - 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the expectation of coal mine复产 has strengthened, the spot is running strongly, the transaction has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, the coking profit has declined, and the price is approaching the phased bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels in the medium term. The main contract reference range is 2750 - 3100 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals in the off - season remain weak. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The demand expectation is still weak, and the downstream willingness to take delivery is low. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Lead**: The market maintains an oscillation, the sentiment is temporarily stable, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 116000 - 124000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weakly oscillating, the sentiment is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract reference range is 12300 - 13000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The demand - side expectation has improved, driving the market to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The support for WTI is in the range of [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC is in the range of [480, 490] [2]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level while the demand release is insufficient, and the short - term market is likely to continue to bottom out. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, and exit if the actual quota fails to meet the expectation. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is tight, but the oil price support is limited. PX will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. PX09 will oscillate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term. Be cautious and bearish near the upper edge of the range; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the oil price support is limited. PTA will follow the raw materials to oscillate in the short term. TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900 in the short term. Allocate bearishly at the upper edge of the range; temporarily exit the TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is gradually being repaired. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; mainly widen the processing fee at the low level of the PF market [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is the demand peak season, the production cuts of bottle - chips are gradually being implemented, the processing fee is bottoming out, and PR follows the cost to fluctuate. The unilateral strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; conduct positive arbitrage on PR8 - 9 on dips; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen at the lower edge of the range [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will be weakly sorted. Hold the seller of the short - term call option EG2509 - C - 4450; conduct reverse arbitrage on EG9 - 1 at high levels [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the continuation of the decline in oil prices. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities for styrene with raw - material resonance [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weakening, and there is pressure above BR. Short at high levels for BR2508 in the short term [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price is falling, and the trading is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the cost - side support is weakening. Treat it with caution and bearishly, and enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strong. Pay attention to the later shipments from Iran. Wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating at the bottom, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Conduct short - term operations [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot sentiment is strong, but the market is suppressed by profit - taking. Treat it with caution and bearishly [2]. - **Corn**: The import auction has a premium, and the market is slightly increasing steadily. Pay attention to the support at 2360 - 2370 [2]. - **Oils**: The decline in production supports the strong oscillation of palm oil. The reference range for P2509 is 8200 - 8500 [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade bearishly on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. The market rushes up and then falls back. Hold short positions in the short term [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot market remains weak. Go long on short - term rebounds, but still be bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7700 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is rising. The main contract runs around 9600 [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic is re - dominating the market, and the market is weakening again. Hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot sales are deteriorating, and the market is weakening. Adopt a short - term bearish thinking [2]. - **Rubber**: There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Continue to hold short positions above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The resumption of production by southwestern enterprises has increased, and the industrial silicon price has declined. Wait and see [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is fluctuating widely, the news disturbance is increasing, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is rising. Wait and see cautiously. It is expected that the 08 contract will hover between 1800 - 2000. For unilateral operations, wait and see for now [2].