Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased on a month-on-month basis but decreased year-on-year, with a significant drop in the year-on-year rate of decline [1] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle both decreased on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis [1] - The land market saw both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1] - Domestic bond issuance by real estate companies decreased significantly, indicating tighter financing conditions [1] - The absolute return of the real estate sector increased, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 also improved [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area for 40 cities was 3.366 million square meters, up 37.0% month-on-month but down 25.7% year-on-year [1][18] - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 2.7% month-on-month but saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1][18] - New home inventory area for 12 cities was 87.42 million square meters, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year [1][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area for 100 cities was 15.761 million square meters, up 47.9% month-on-month and up 25.6% year-on-year [1][14] - Total land transaction price reached 57.35 billion yuan, up 186.7% month-on-month and up 155.3% year-on-year [1][14] - The average floor price of land was 3,639 yuan per square meter, up 93.9% month-on-month and up 103.2% year-on-year [1][14] 3. Industry Policy Review - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various supportive measures [1][6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 3.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous week [1][15] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 23.85X, up 0.68X from the previous week [1][15] 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [1][15] 6. Bond Issuance Situation - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 4.79 billion yuan, down 43.0% month-on-month and down 37.1% year-on-year [1][15]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expressed a positive outlook on the economy, highlighting a recovery in social confidence, while also acknowledging challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and persistently low prices [4][9]. Economic Situation Analysis - The PBOC has rated the economic performance in the first half of the year highly, stating that the economy is showing a positive trend and social confidence is being restored [4][9]. - The central bank has noted the ongoing issue of insufficient domestic demand and has added concerns regarding low price levels, indicating a shift in focus towards price control strategies [4][9]. - The monetary policy approach will be flexible, adjusting the intensity and pace of policy implementation based on economic conditions [4][9]. Currency and Bond Market - The PBOC has indicated that the current exchange rate is within a reasonable range, with the RMB appreciating from 7.30 to 7.17 against the USD from the end of 2025 to June 27, 2025 [5][10]. - The central bank continues to monitor the bond market closely, emphasizing the need to prevent capital turnover and maintain low funding rates [5][10]. Real Estate Market - The PBOC aims to stabilize the real estate market, responding to a decline in sales during the second quarter, which has prompted increased attention to this sector [5][10]. - The previous assessment of the real estate market as stabilizing has been adjusted due to fluctuations in sales data [5][10]. Financing Support for Key Areas - The PBOC has committed to enhancing support for technological innovation and consumer spending, indicating that new policy financial tools may be introduced soon [6][11]. - The central bank has reiterated its commitment to maintaining stability in the capital markets, which have shown positive performance in the second quarter [7][11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "Rebound"; soda ash is rated as "Oscillation" [2]. - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Upward"; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillation"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Rebound"; gold and silver are rated as "Correction"; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is rated as "Oscillation" [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Weak Oscillation"; logs are rated as "Strong Oscillation"; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "High - level Oscillation"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Oscillation with a Bearish Bias" [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Rebound" [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Rebound"; PX, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See"; PTA and MEG are rated as "Short at High Levels" [9]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The overall supply of iron ore is increasing, demand is relatively low, and port inventories are entering a stocking cycle. Coal and coke prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and high iron - water production. The supply - demand structure of rolled steel has weakened, and glass prices have rebounded at low levels [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation. The stock market shows different trends, and the bond market rebounds slightly. Gold prices may correct in the short term [4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly, while log prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate at high levels. The soybean market is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pig prices are expected to continue rising, driven by supply - demand changes and market sentiment [7]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely. PX prices follow oil prices, PTA and MEG are suitable for shorting at high levels, and polyester products show different trends [9]. 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recent spot trading is weak, and the basis continues to narrow. Global shipments and arrivals are increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It rebounds in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of iron - water production [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Environmental inspections have led to a decline in coking coal supply, and prices have rebounded strongly. Coke prices are under pressure, and inventories are increasing. Attention should be paid to iron - water production and supply - side trends [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, demand has weakened, production has increased, and inventories have started to rise. The overall demand is difficult to reverse seasonally, and prices may find support at the valley - electricity cost level in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The daily melting volume will first decrease and then increase. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventories are at a high level. Prices have rebounded at low levels, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows an oscillating trend [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices show different trends. The central bank's policy suggestions and economic data affect the market. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Although the logic driving the price increase has not completely reversed, prices may correct in the short term due to factors such as interest - rate and tariff policies [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stabilizing, costs are decreasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are increasing, to - be - arrived volumes are expected to decrease, and costs are providing support. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. The supply of soybean oil and palm oil is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Others**: The soybean market is weak due to favorable weather and high production. Domestic imports are large, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side sentiment is strong, and prices are rising. The average transaction weight is decreasing, and prices are expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand shows a structural recovery, and inventories are in different states. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, supply is increasing, and prices follow oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: Costs are oscillating after a decline, and the supply - demand situation is weakening in the medium term. Prices follow costs in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are low, and the supply - demand situation is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. Prices are affected by the general market atmosphere [9]. - **PR**: Driven by cost factors, the market may adjust with a bullish bias [9]. - **PF**: Terminal performance is average, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [9].

Economic Analysis - The central bank acknowledges a positive economic trend with improved social confidence, but still faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and persistently low prices[1] - The central bank's assessment of the economy has shifted from "overall stable" to a more optimistic view, highlighting the recovery of social confidence[1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will be dynamically adjusted based on economic conditions, with a focus on flexibility in implementation[1] - The central bank emphasizes the need for a shift in price control strategies, moving from high price management to low price management, and from supporting scale expansion to promoting high-quality development[1] Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated from 7.30 to 7.17 against the USD from the end of 2025 to June 27, 2025, indicating a more stable exchange rate environment[2] - The central bank's stance on the exchange rate has shifted from a strong management approach to a focus on preventing excessive fluctuations[2] Real Estate Market - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize the real estate market, particularly in response to declining sales in the second quarter[2] - Despite previous measures like interest rate cuts, real estate sales have not rebounded to first-quarter levels, prompting increased attention from the central bank[2] Financial Support and Innovation - The central bank plans to enhance support for technology innovation and consumer spending through new structural monetary policy tools[3] - Existing policies, such as the 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan, are expected to be further developed to stimulate economic growth[3]

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

金十数据6月27日讯，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会于6月23日召开，会议指出，加 大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力 构建房地产发展新模式。 央行：加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing under continuous policy regulation, with a clear focus on maintaining market stability, promoting transformation, and preventing risks. The government has set three core tasks: urban renewal, high-quality transformation, and inventory optimization [1][2][19]. Policy Implementation - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market," indicating that the market has entered a new phase of supply-demand balance since late 2024 [1][2]. - In the first half of 2025, local governments issued 362 market stabilization policies across 130 provinces and cities, maintaining a year-on-year stability in policy issuance [1][14]. - The government aims to enhance urban renewal actions, construct a new model for real estate development, and optimize policies for purchasing existing properties to strengthen market risk defenses [2][19]. Financial Support - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, focusing on reducing costs, expanding demand, and stabilizing expectations. This includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [6][7]. - The reduction in interest rates for housing loans is expected to save homebuyers over 20 billion yuan annually, enhancing their purchasing power and supporting housing demand [7][8]. Land Supply and Inventory Management - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a plan to utilize local government special bonds to support land reserves, with a proposed land acquisition scale exceeding 9,500 hectares, which is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [10][20]. - The average theoretical construction area from the proposed land acquisition exceeds 1.9 million square meters, which could lead to a significant reduction in the new housing sales cycle [11][20]. Future Directions - The government plans to focus on four main areas in the second half of 2025: advancing special bond land acquisition, accelerating urban renewal, implementing precise financial policies, and speeding up supply-side reforms to support the new development model [19][21].

金十数据6月20日讯，中国建设报发文称，国家统计局近日公布了70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动 情况。数据显示，5月份，房地产市场运行总体平稳，70个大中城市房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房库 存持续减少。数据也表明，当前房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改 善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需继续努力。今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，房地产市场继 续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。从长远看，我国城镇化进程仍在推进中，房地产市场的空间还比较广阔， 有良好发展前景。我们应对房地产市场总体平稳健康发展有信心。随着中央有关财税、金融等政策的进 一步优化统筹，以及各地因城施策推动政策精准落地，房地产市场将进一步巩固稳定态势。 中国建设报：加力巩固房地产市场稳定态势 ...

金十数据整理：每日房地产行业动态汇总（2025-06-17） 1. 深圳南山筹集社会存量住房5000套。 2. 广州南沙首批房票发放，总额超5000万元。 3. 广州两宗住宅用地出让：成交额8.94亿元。 4. 杭州公积金个人账户可直付购房首付款。 5. 北京6月16日新房网签222套，二手房住宅成交609套。 6. 浙江省直公积金可直付首付款、房租。 7. 浙江衢州：推行多孩家庭改善性购房补贴，最高可申请补贴20万元。 8. 研究员：短期波动不会改变房地产市场稳定态势。 9. 温州推出购买二手住房提取住房公积金支付首付款政策。 10. 成都推出"房产超市"平台，首批近30家房企入驻。 11. 重庆优化住房公积金政策，提高灵活就业人员贷款额度及效率。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，我国房地产继续朝 着止跌回稳方向迈进。5月份，我国房地产市场总体平稳运行，但也应该看到，房地产市场仍在调整阶 段，市场信心仍在修复，市场供求关系仍在改善，促进房地产止跌回稳仍需继续努力。(新华财经) ...